SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/25/13

[Shrykespeare]

Jeez. We’re not even a month into the year, and already I’ve sorely underestimated the allure that pure horror films have towards film-lovers of that genre. Two weeks ago, I thought that Texas Chainsaw 3D would underwhelm, and it won the weekend, beating all of the Christmas holdovers. And this week, Mama decimated all competition, pulling in an estimated $26M, well ahead of the second-place film, Zero Dark Thirty. The fact that Jessica Chastain is the lead actress in both films is also very interesting to note… when was the last time that one actor/actress was the top biller in the #1 and #2 films? Anyway, in other news, bad reviews caused Broken City to barely squeak into the Top 5, and even good reviews couldn’t help Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to top-biller status break $6M. Meanwhile, on the PTA front, Amour and Zero Dark Thirty continue to be the gifts that just keep on giving, running their totals in that category to twenty and nineteen, respectively. And to think, I passed both up for Promised Land…

With the Oscar buzz surrounding Zero Dark Thirty continuing to grow and with a second-week plummet likely to befall Mama, the door is once again wide open for a new #1 film this coming weekend, and with three new films coming in wide release, it probably won’t take much more than $12M to grab that spot. The film most likely to do that is Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters (Paramount), for several reasons: it is the only one of the three with a major studio backing it, it’s gotten the most advertising of the bunch, and it is being given the widest release platform (3,000 theaters) by far.

In only five years, Jeremy Renner has come from relative obscurity to the top of the A-list. Oscar nominations for both The Hurt Locker and The Town have garnered him a decent following, and even though his turn in the latest Bourne film was the least successful chapter in that franchise, filmgoers still haven’t forgotten his integral roles in both Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol last winter or in The Avengers last summer. Does he have the following to make Hansel and Gretel a hit? Well, maybe not, but it sure won’t hurt.

This film marks the American debut for young Norwegian director Tommy Wirkola (Dead Snow), and it takes a classic Grimm fairy tale and turns it inside out. We are all read the story as kids; how two siblings were lured into an evil witch’s home, only to turn the tables on said witch. Witch Hunters picks up the film fifteen years later, when Hansel (Renner) and Gretel (Prince of Persia’s Gemma Arterton) have become bounty hunters, armed with an arsenal of fearsome – and wholly anachronistic – weapons meant to dispatch any and all witches from the land. The pair are summoned to a town in rural Germany to rid the locals of the plots of an evil sorceress (Famke Janssen), who is planning to sacrifice many of the local children in a ceremony two days hence. And to make matters worse, they have to deal with the local sheriff (Peter Stormare), who has begun a rather indiscriminate witch-hunt of his own.

Is the concept ridiculous? Absolutely… but then, so was the idea that Abraham Lincoln was a vampire hunter, and that ended up being one of my favorite films of 2012. Still, that film only managed to earn $37M in a summer release. Hansel and Gretel also has competition, but it won’t be completely dwarfed by it, so that total sounds pretty good to me. In all, I predict an OW of $19M, six or seven Top 5 points, perhaps a couple of PTA, and a Rating in the low 6’s. That’s not bad, but considering its price tag ($13 Ultimate, $14 Box Office), I think you can do better.




Pop quiz: a thief who goes by only one name goes for one more big score, only to find himself betrayed, shot and left for dead. But he survives, and, with the help of a sexy lady, is able to exact revenge on the men who wronged him. What film am I describing? Well, if you said Mel Gibson’s 1999 crime drama Payback, you’d be correct. But you’d also be describing Parker (FilmDistrict), Jason Statham’s latest vehicle, which will open in 2,200 theaters this Friday.

Yes, Statham’s character is named Parker and not Porter, and yes, the sexy lady helping him is a real estate agent (played by Jennifer Lopez) and not a high-end prostitute, and there’s likely to be a lot more high-kicking action and less Lucy Liu playing a dominatrix (hubba hubba hubba), but otherwise it seems to be basically the same film. And I don’t remember Gibson donning a cowboy hat and a horrible Texas accent in Payback either, come to think of it…

One year ago this week, Statham and The Mechanic opened to an unimpressive $11M, on its way to $29M and only three Top 5 points. Because that’s about the average of one of Jason’s films, and because history usually repeats itself in cases like this, I’ll predict the same numbers for Parker. Which means that its price tag of $9 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office) is way too high. Pass.




The third major film opening this weekend is Movie 43 (Relativity), which will be bowing in about 2,000 theaters. It would take too long to go into the plot, since the film involves twelve separate storylines, each one with a different director and cast. I also won’t bother to go into the cast much, except to say that some of the biggest names in Hollywood are in it, including Emma Stone, Hugh Jackman, Kate Winslet, Gerard Butler, Richard Gere, Uma Thurman and Halle Berry.

Some comedies skirt the line between good and bad taste. Not this one, apparently. It seems to have something in it to offend just about everybody, but if that’s your thing (and for a lot of people, it is), this just might be the laugh-fest of the year. However, all things being equal, I think that both Top 5 points and PTA points are not in Movie 43’s future. I’ll predict a $9M OW, $21M overall, and wave goodbye as it quickly passes through theaters. So should you, at least for game purposes.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

John Dies at the End (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – As if things couldn’t get any more bizarre. This horror-comedy from the twisted mind of Don Coscarelli (Bubba Ho-Tep) stars Chase Williamson, Paul Giamatti, Clancy Brown and Rob Mayes as the titular John. The film centers on a new street drug called “Soy Sauce” because of its color, and its effects are… rather extreme, to say the least.

You see, anyone who takes this drug immediately has an out-of-body experience, drifting through parallel universes and such. Trouble is, when they return to their own bodies, they are not quite human anymore, and college dropouts Dave (Williamson) and John (Mayes) suspect that this drug may be the gateway for an interdimensional invasion. Um, okay.

Well, the only thing that makes me consider this film for my slates is the presence of Giamatti, who was able to make PTA kings out of Barney’s Version and Win Win in the early part of both of the last two years. However, John Dies is night-and-day different from those films, and while I can certainly see a film like this earning a cult following like Bubba Ho-Tep did, it won’t happen in theaters. Plus, it’s been out on VOD for some time now, and that’s enough reason not to take it, even for $3… of course, with the exception of Amour, everything is bound to take a big hit this week, and stranger things have happened, haven’t they?




Race 2 (UTV Communications) ($2 Ult, $2 BO) – This Hindi import is an action-crime thriller, which is rather unusual, because films like that don’t often make their way to American soil. Even Rowdy Rathore, which opened last June, was classified as an “action comedy”. Race 2 is a Bollywood product, which means you’re probably going to find legions of brightly-garbed dancers in this film, earning their keep in between car chase scenes.

Anyway, this seems to be a full-on action movie, full of fast cars, big guns and sexy women. The plot seems irrelevant apart from that, although I should point out that the cast does include Anil Kapoor (Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol, Slumdog Millionaire). I’m not sure how many theaters will be showcasing Race 2, but it won’t be many. And I doubt PTA points will be forthcoming for this film, either.



(This was the only trailer I could find, and unfortunately, there are no subtitles. The trailer itself starts at about the :45 mark.)


My predictions for the weekend of January 25-27, 2013:

1. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - $19 million
2. Parker - $11 million
3. Zero Dark Thirty – $11 million
4. Mama - $10 million
5. Movie 43 - $9 million
6. Silver Linings Playbook - $8 million

PTA race (Nov-Dec): Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Amour, Quartet, Parker, Zero Dark Thirty

PTA race (Jan): Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Quartet, Parker, John Dies at the End, Movie 43

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters – N/A, 6.3 (1,297 votes)
Parker – N/A, N/A
Movie 43 – N/A, 6.5 (1,208 votes)
John Dies at the End – 63% (10/16 positive), 6.6 (4,939 votes)
Race 2 – N/A, N/A

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we leave the bleakness of January behind for… well, the bleakness of February. On tap are four films, including: Bullet to the Head, Sylvester Stallone’s latest low-grade action flick; Stand Up Guys, a crime comedy starring Al Pacino, Alan Arkin and Christopher Walken; Warm Bodies, a horror-love story featuring zombies; and, in limited release, a documentary called The Gatekeepers.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jim Jarmusch (director, Ghost Dog and Coffee and Cigarettes) turns 60 on 1/22
Tobe Hooper (director, the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre) turns 70 1/25
Cameron Bright (Juno, Thank You For Smoking) turns 20 on 1/26

Later!

[Buscemi]

On the openers:

Hansel and Gretel: Who Would Be Caught Dead Watching This? $12 million
Parker $10 million
Movie 43 $7 million

Holdovers:

Mama drops 60-65%
Broken City drops 55-60%
The Last Stand drops 55-65%
Silver Linings Playbook drops 25-30%

[numbersix]

Ugh, every film this week looks like a total dud. Hansel and Gretel has an Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Vibe, and tha could only manage 16m during the summer.

1. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - $13 million
3. Zero Dark Thirty – $11 million
4. Mama - $11 million
3. Parker - $10 million
5. Silver Linings Playbook - $8 million

[transformers2]

1.Zero Dark Thirty $13 mil
2.Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters aka I'll be caught dead seeing this on Friday $12 mil
3.Parker $11 mil
4.Mama $11 mil
5.Silver Linings Playbook $9 mil
6.Movie 43 $8 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Bold prediction for this week: Movie 43 will open at #1. It's been marketing like crazy, too much for me personally, but maybe it's driven people to the red band trailer on the website - which I think is good.

Hansel & Gretel? Ugh. Take AL:VH's gross ($37M), subtract about $10M for the summertime walk-ins and you have my prediction of $11/$27 for this crap.

[Geezer]

What an awful weekend of openers. I honestly think Mama repeats or ZD30 sneaks in for first.

[Buscemi]

But Banks, when's the last time that an anthology film has made money? Cloud Atlas flopped, Paris je'taime did decent in limited release but the sequel was a disaster and just about every other anthology film in the past few decades has had little to no impact.

Also not helping is how dated the film looks. For a comedy, that is really bad.

[englishozzy]

Hansel and Gretel is completely saturated with ads over here, whether it be on the Internet of at the Cinema's. Almost as if they are trying to make up for lost time.

1. Zero Dark Thirty - $10 million
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - $9 million
3. Parker - $8 million
4. Mama - $8 million
5. Silver Linings Playbook - $7 million

[empire13]

I agree with Boosh on Movie 43. I also think that Mama holds pretty well, maybe a 55% drop. Yeah, it got a B- cinemascore, but that's pretty good for a horror film. Plus it's the only non R rated film out, so that should help a considerable amount. That's what I'm hoping anyway. And, I'm in agreement with those that think the Hansel & Gretel has an Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter "vibe" to it. Also, I think it looks extremely stupid! What a horrible week for new releases.

[Buscemi]

Not surprisingly, Hansel and Gretel and Parker are getting slammed by the critics. But the surprising thing is that Movie 43 wasn't even screened to critics and at present time, has absolutely no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. The user rating is 72%, which I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - 3,372
Parker - 2,224
Movie 43 - 2,023
John Dies at the End - 1
Race 2 - N/A

Estimates for next week:

Warm Bodies - 2,900
Bullet to the Head - 2,400+
Stand Up Guys - 450

[Chienfantome]

450 theaters next week for Stand Up Guys ? That's it ? Damn.

[Buscemi]

The weak reviews, lack of awards buzz and the poor box office of The Last Stand seems to make Lionsgate believe there isn't an audience for Pacino, Walken and Arkin teaming up.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Stand Up Guys has also been widely available on torrents for months now, so I think anyone who wanted to see it may have already...

[Buscemi]

Except Stand Up Guys isn't a movie for the torrent crowd. Unless some Oscar voter is also Internet savvy.