SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/11/13

[Shrykespeare]

Horror fans showed up in sufficient enough numbers this past weekend for Texas Chainsaw 3D to spoil The Hobbit’s bid for a fourth straight week at the top of the box office, earning over $21M, which was just a hair ahead of QT’s latest shoot-‘em-up Django Unchained ($20M). On the PTA front, Zero Dark Thirty and Amour finished one-two for the third straight week.

All of the holdovers suffered minute drops in the first weekend after New Year’s, but with new films slowly making their way into theaters, look for there to be wholesale changes in the Top 5 in the next two weeks. To begin with, Zero Dark Thirty will be expanding nationwide to 2,400 theaters, and based on the huge buzz surrounding it (it’s currently at 94% on RT and is a shoe-in for multiple Oscar noms), look for it to contend for the top spot this week.

I would certainly not have thought that the next project for Ruben Fleischer, whose last two films were horror-comedy Zombieland and action-comedy 30 Minutes or Less, would be a star-studded gangster drama, but it is. Gangster Squad (Warner Bros.) is the first major studio release of 2013, and it’s got enough hot young talent and savvy veterans that you should take heed. This cast includes Oscar winner Sean Penn, Oscar-nominated actors Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling and Nick Nolte, and the up-and-coming Emma Stone, who should get her share of nominations before too long.

The film is set in crime-ridden L.A. of the 1940’s and 50’s, a setting that has been used as a backdrop for many films, including L.A. Confidential and Mulholland Falls. And while the real-life character of Mickey Cohen was used only peripherally in Confidential, here he is front and center. Cohen (Penn) is the organized crime boss who attempts to take control of the West Coast underworld and a corrupt political system, and has so many resources, men, and weapons that the officers of the LAPD seem powerless to stop him.

That’s why Chief Bill Parker (Nolte) decides to create a small band of men to take the fight to Cohen. Sometimes dubbed “The Hat Squad” because of the lids they wore, the group consists of John O’Mara (Brolin), Jerry Wooters (Gosling), Rocky Washington (Anthony Mackie), Conway Keeler (Giovanni Ribisi) and Navidad Ramirez (Michael Pena). One thing’s for sure: if Fleischer’s going to put his own personal touch on this film, there’s going to be a lot of shooting.

It’s been a while since filmgoers have had a good gangster film to sink their teeth into. With this cast (and a 3,000-theater opening), I think it will have enough oomph to top Zero Dark Thirty at the box office this weekend. What it will do after that, though, is less clear: next week, Gangster Squad will go up against another cop dram (Broken City) and another action flick (The Last Stand), so it may very well tail off pretty quickly.

I predict a $16M OW, on its way to six or seven Top 5 points, four PTA, a Rating around 6.9 and $44M. Those aren’t terrible numbers for January, but it’s the most expensive property of the month ($15 Ultimate, $16 BO), and with much better prospects coming up later in the season, I would pass on Gangster Squad for your studios.




It’s been thirteen years since the first Scary Movie hit theaters, the first of four films in that franchise to do really quite well at the box office. Right on cue, Scary Movie 5 is set to hit theaters in April, but for now, Marlon Wayans, one of the stars of the original Scary Movie, is getting back in the game but playing for a different team, with the opening of A Haunted House (Open Road Films). It is the directorial debut for Michael Tiddes, and it will be opening in 2,200 locations this Friday.

I’ll just say it: it may be time to revive the genre. It’s been a few years since Friedberg and Seltzer’s last abomination, and a good spoof can be comedy gold if done right. And the timing is right, seeing as how the main source of material for A Haunted House are subgenres that have been way overdone in the past few years: found-footage films, possession films and, well, haunted house films. Obviously, the Paranormal Activity series will take it right on the chin here (as well as in another location further south), along with possession films like The Devil Inside and, of course, The Possession. I won’t go into the plot, as the trailer pretty much explains it all, but apart from Wayans (who also cowrote the script), the film also features familiar faces such as Cedric the Entertainer, Nick Swardson and David Koechner.

Like I said, it’s been a while since we’ve had a good spoof and it’s also been a while since we’ve had a comedy with a mostly black cast. The 2,200-theater platform is comparable to a Tyler Perry movie, and we all know how well his comedies tend to do. Now, I’m not saying that A Haunted House will do THAT well, but it’s only $7 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if it was able to match Gangster Squad dollar for dollar. I predict a $14 OW, three Top 5, maybe two PTA and $37M. The Rating will probably be crap, but if you’re in a gambling mood, you may consider taking this one.




The first of our two limited-release films is Quartet (Weinstein Co.), a British comedy-drama based on the play of the same title by Ronald Harwood, which ran in London’s West End at the turn of the millennium. It is the directorial debut for the 75-years-young Hollywood legend Dustin Hoffman, and it stars a bevy of English thespians that should be recognizable to just about everyone (well, three of them, anyway), including two members of the Harry Potter cast, Maggie Smith and Michael Gambon.

Cissy (Pauline Collins), Wilf (Brave’s Billy Connolly) and Reg (Tom Courtenay) make up three-fourths of a world-famous operatic quartet, now living their golden years in a retirement home for gifted musicians. When Jean (Smith), the fourth member of their quartet – who also happens to be Reg’s ex-wife - arrives to take up residence, they are pressed into performing one of their most famous arias… but old rivalries and artistic temperaments don’t dull with age, it seems.

Quartet has gotten very favorable reviews so far, as well as a Golden Globe nomination (for Smith), and it will be debuting in two theaters this weekend. This seems to me like a PTA gold mine ripe for picking. Heck, if the aged cast of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel can glean twelve PTA points in high summer, how might Quartet fare against relatively weak January competition? Well, for only $4, I think this is well worth the gamble, especially as there are no obvious indie-house champions looming for quite a few weeks.




Last up is another British import, a horror-thriller entitled Storage 24 (Magnolia). It follows a quartet of friends who become trapped in a storage facility after a military cargo plane crashes nearby, leaving its highly dangerous, highly classified contents strewn around the area. Things get worse when something very alien, very scary and very pissed off begins hunting them through the maze of corridors that make up the facility.

The film does have a couple of mildly familiar faces, including Colin O’Donoghue (The Rite), Antionia Campbell Hughes (Albert Nobbs) and Noel Clarke (Doctor Who), and while the trailer actually does look moderately cool, both critics and filmgoers alike have lined up to bash Storage 24 into the ground. It’s only $3 in the Ultimate leagues, yes, but for that you’ll only get one PTA point and a shitty Rating, and that’s a bad trade-off. Pass.




My predictions for the weekend of January 11-13, 2013:

1. Gangster Squad - $16 million
2. Zero Dark Thirty - $15 million
3. A Haunted House - $14 million
4. Django Unchained - $13 million
5. Les Miserables - $9 million

PTA race (Nov-Dec): Quartet, A Haunted House, Amour, Gangster Squad, Zero Dark Thirty

PTA race (Jan): Quartet, A Haunted House, Gangster Squad, Texas Chainsaw 3D, Storage 24

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Gangster Squad – 47% (8/17 positive), 7.4 (1,153 votes)
A Haunted House – N/A, N/A
Quartet – 81% (41/51 positive), 6.7 (731 votes)
Storage 24 – 41% (9/22 positive), 4.2 (1,418 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four more films take center stage as we plow on through January: Broken City, a gritty drama starring Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe; The Last Stand, featuring the Arnold Schwarzenegger in his first starring role since leaving politics; Mama, a creepy-looking horror flick starring Jessica Chastain; and, in limited release, French film Hors Satan.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Larry Storch (F Troop) turns 90 on 1/8
Sean Paul (singer) turns 40 on 1/9
Pat Benatar (singer) turns 60 on 1/10
Richard Moll (Night Court) turns 70 on 1/13

Later!

[Buscemi]

Gangster Squad has been long delayed and despite the large marketing campaign, it really doesn't seem to know who it's going for. Combine that with the weak reviews and I can't see it opening well. I will say $12 million.

Zero Dark Thirty has gotten a lot of buzz but the long run time, the fact that it feels too soon to do a big budget movie on bin Laden's capture (it was also give the TV treatment two months before as Seal Team Six, which was more action-themed and ran a brisk 90 minutes minus commercials) and audiences being indifferent on movies about the War on Terror, can hurt it. I will say $11 million but it will hold.

A Haunted House should surprise. Despite the fact that it looks awful, black audiences tend to show up for these low-brow comedies and January almost always has a successful black-aimed movie (last year had Red Tails surprise with a $20 million opening). I will say $15 million for the weekend.

As for the second week movies, I expect Texas Chainsaw 3-D to drop 65-70%, Promised Land to drop 50%, The Impossible to drop 20% and Not Fade Away to drop 55-60% (since that film will be down to one show a day at most places).

[numbersix]

I think Gangster Squad will do just fine. The first big film of the year with a hell of a cast. And it's marketing seems pretty focused to me. It's not going for older audiences who want great acting and great reviews. It's aiming for teens and young men who want action. The trailers have certainly been pushing it like that. And of course Gosling will draw a few ladies into the theatre.

Zero Dark Thirty should open strong. Hurt Locker built up an audience on DVD and this film is being promoted on the back of that. Combine the massive amount of press the film is receiving plus the Award Buzz, plus the fact that it's a real life American "success" story about the capture of the most hated man for you yanks, and you've got a hit.

Not sure what to make of A Haunted House. I suspect it'll perform modestly well, but with no legs.

And Shryke, you're right about Quartet. The best PTA pick of Jan.

1. Gangster Squad - $21 million
2. Zero Dark Thirty - $18 million
3. A Haunted House - $15 million
4. Django Unchained - $13 million
5. The Hobbit - $10 million

[numbersix]

Tracking

Gangster: MTC 23m, RS mid 20s
Zero Dark: MTC 21m, RS high teens
Haunted: MTC 15m, RS low teens

[transformers2]

1.Gangster Squad $25 mil
2.Zero Dark Thirty $22 mil
3.Django Unchained $15 mil
4.A Haunted House $12 mil
5.The Hobbit/Les Miserables $10 mil

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Gangster Squad - 3,103
A Haunted House - 2,160
Quartet - 2
Storage 24 - N/A

Zero Dark Thirty - 2,937


Estimates for Next Week:

The Last Stand - 2,800
Broken City - 2,700
Mama - 2,400

Silver Linings Playbook - 2,500 (took long enough!!)

[Brockster]

That's a great number for ZDT...I really think it's going to do well this weekend...very much hyped up, getting good reviews, appeals to men and women...I just can't see it not doing well.

[W]

Crap. I forgot to switch to Quartet. Hopefully it flops.

[Brockster]

NO! Don't say that...I have it on most of my slates, lol

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Mini Supers, Ultimate (R1, R2 - 33 players)

Gangster Squad - 5, 6
A Haunted House - 3, 0
Quartet - 13, 9
Storage 24 - 0, 1


Mini Supers, Box Office (R1, R2 - 32 players)

Gangster Squad - 1, 3
A Haunted House - 2, 1
Quartet - 4, 3
Storage 24 - 0, 0


Bankrupts, 1st Quarter (Ult, BO - 7 players)

Gangster Squad - 2, 2
A Haunted House - 2, 0
Quartet - 0, 0
Storage 24 - 1, 0

We need more players!!


Super Leagues, Ultimate, Round One (FY - 43 players; HY - 41 players)

Gangster Squad - 12, 12
A Haunted House - 1, 1
Quartet - 21, 21
Storage 24 - 1, 0


Super Leagues, Box Office, Round One (FY - 44 players; HY - 41 players)

Gangster Squad - 11, 7
A Haunted House - 3, 5
Quartet - 1, 1
Storage 24 - 1, 1

[transformers2]

Oh shit I didn't know there was a new Bankrupts league, I will join right now.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, it seems clear what #1 is going to be this weekend. #2 will be close.


Friday estimates:

Zero Dark Thirty, $9M
A Haunted House, $6.7M
Gangster Squad, $6.7m
Django Unchained, $3.5M
Les Miserables, $2.8M
The Hobbit, $2.3M
Lincoln, $1.8M
Texas Chainsaw 3D, $1.8M
Parental Guidance, $1.7M
Jack Reacher, $1.6M
Silver Linings Playbook, $1.5M
This is 40, $1.4M


Weekend Projections:

Zero Dark Thirty, $26M
Gangster Squad, $18.7M
A Haunted House, $17.5M
Django Unchained, $11.7M
Les Miserables, $9.5M
The Hobbit, $9M
Lincoln, $6.5M
Parental Guidance, $6.3M
Silver Linings Playbook, $5M
Jack Reacher, $5M
Texas Chainsaw 3D, $4.9M
This is 40, $4.3M

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Looks like Busc was right on Gangster Squad, it's getting horrible reviews and I can't see it passing $45M now.

And A Haunted House is as terrible as we all thought, but no comedies out right now means people are checking it out. I'm sure it won't have good legs, especially if Movie 43 catches on (which I don't think it will), but a $18M OW would mean at least $35M total is in reach. Which is nice for my Full Year.

[transformers2]

I would say none of us besides Six we're right on Gangster Squad. I highballed it and Boosh/Shryke lowballed it. From what I understand, the audience reception has been good which I think will lead to a gross somewhere between 50-60 mil. Definitely not a booming success, but hardly a bomb either.

[Chienfantome]

Wow, how much of a drop is it going to be for TCM's 2nd weekend ? That is huge.