SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/25, 12/28

[Shrykespeare]

So, dear readers, friends and hangers-on, we have come to the end of yet another year. Including this one, there have been fifty columns, 244 films reviewed, dozens of dashed Super League hopes, and billions and billions of dollars earned. Next week, I will be announcing the winners of both the year-long Full-Year leagues and both of the six-month-long Half-Year leagues. Early congratulations to aquamann and Shonenbat, the only two players who never fell underneath the cutting axe the entire year, making it to the final round of all six contests. You guys both win the Rasputin Award for this year… we just can’t get rid of you!

First off, I hope all of you have a terrific Christmas holiday. Before we open the presents, get drunk on spiked eggnog and break our teeth on homemade fruitcake, let’s delve into the last four films on the calendar for 2012. The Mayans may have been full of prunes in their doom-predicting, but look at it this way… we move forward with a renewed sense of hope and vigor. And another year of Super Leagues. Where the rest of you will be vying for second place. Ahem. And so, for the final time this year, here… we… go.

It’s rare that any movie gets released on a Tuesday, but given that this Tuesday is Christmas Day, it’s perhaps not so unusual in this case. Three films will be going wide on Christmas, and the most explosive of these is Django Unchained (Weinstein Co.), the seventh film (if you count Kill Bill as one movie) from Quentin Tarantino. This is his follow-up to Inglourious Basterds, which was not only his highest-grossing film to date ($120M), but also netted an Academy Award for the riveting supporting performance turned in by Austrian actor Christophe Waltz as the cunning Hans Landa.

Hoping to recapture that magic, Waltz is back, as is Samuel L. Jackson (Pulp Fiction), though Sammy’s role is a much smaller one. The cast also includes Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio, not to mention familiar names such as Kerry Washington, and Don Johnson, as well as cameo appearances from James Remar, Tom Wopat, Bruce Dern, Jonah Hill and Robert Carradine. After tackling the war-film genre last time out, QT has set his sights on a genre that has always intrigued him… the western. As a lifelong fan of spaghetti westerns, it was only a matter of time.

Set in the pre-Civil War Deep South, the story focuses on a slave named Django (Foxx), who is liberated by a bounty hunter named Dr. King Schultz (Waltz), who offers to give Django his freedom if he can help Schultz track down some baddies that only Django knows by sight. Django gleefully accepts, as he also hopes to use his newfound freedom to find and rescue his wife (Washington) from the clutches of evil plantation owner Calvin Candie (DiCaprio).

There are several things that nearly every QT film has in common: they tend to be very stylized, they tend to not be told in chronological order, they are almost gratuitously bloody and violent… and they also are very well-reviewed, and Django Unchained seems to be no exception. With The Hobbit fading fast and neither Jack Reacher nor This is 40 offering much competition, and with very little competition coming up in the next few weeks, Django Unchained could make a killing in more ways than one.

Unless Les Miserables just goes through the roof (more on that in a moment), Django Unchained will remain in the Top 5 for at least three weeks, perhaps more if it holds well. With only a handful of films debuting in early January, it could glean as many as thirteen Top 5 points. PTA points are more problematic, given that films like Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, The Impossible and Promised Land will be vying for supremacy in that category. However, three out of four categories is not bad, and for $19 in Ultimate ($21 in Box Office), you should get at least $100M in total take and a very respectable Rating (which is also typical for a QT film). Very few things are certainties in the next two months, so this is probably one of the last ironclad hits you’ll see on the roster. Take it.




It is perhaps ironic that 2012 represents the 150th anniversary of the original printing of Victor Hugo’s classic French novel Les Misérables. It has been made into musicals for both the stage and the big screen many many times, and the 2012 version of Les Misérables (Universal)looks to be this year’s big musical hit, if the reception thus far is any indication.

The story takes place against the backdrop of the 1832 June Rebellion in Paris. A man named Jean Valjean (Hugh Jackman) has broken his parole after spending nineteen years in prison – for stealing a loaf of bread – and is being relentlessly pursued by a police inspector named Javert (Russell Crowe). Also in the mix is Fantine (Anne Hathaway), a factory worker who has been forced to become a prostitute to earn money to care for her daughter Cosette (the little girl on the poster). But when Cosette (as a teenager, played by Amanda Seyfried) crosses paths with Valjean, he takes it upon himself to care for her, just as she falls in love with a student revolutionary named Marius (Eddie Redmayne).

No doubt about it: Les Mis remains to this day one of the most popular love stories ever written. The songs, which debuted in 1985 when the story was adapted to the stage for the first time, are timeless, and under the watchful eye of director Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), look for Les Misérables to become perhaps the sleeper hit of the season.

What I said about Django Unchained holds true for Les Misérables as well. There is not much competition other than The Hobbit, and though I don’t see this film debuting as high as Django, it may have stronger legs, and may even outgross QT’s latest in the long run. I predict eleven Top 5, maybe one or two PTA, $110M in total take and a very respectable Rating. It’s moderately priced at $16 in Ultimate and $18 in Box Office, and if you have room, I would take this film as well.




There’s usually one breakout comedy every December. Of course, accent the word “usually” because after the truly underwhelming OW’s turned in by This is 40 and The Guilt Trip, I look for Parental Guidance (Fox), which was directed by Andy Fickman (The Game Plan, You Again) to make it a trifecta of meh. Unlike past winters, which have seen huge numbers for films like Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, Little Fockers, It’s Complicated, Marley and Me and Bedtime Stories, it looks like this particular winter is devoid of non-animated comedy quality.

It’s a shame, too. There once was a time when Billy Crystal was once one of the most popular comic actors in the business, having led films like When Harry Met Sally, City Slickers, Mr. Saturday Night and Analyze This (not to mention Monsters, Inc.) to great success. However, this is Crystal’s first leading role in ten years, and from the looks of the trailer, it doesn’t look like his return will become a classic any time soon.

The story: Artie and Diane Decker (Crystal, Bette Midler), who feel that they don’t spend enough time with their grandkids (Bailee Madison, Joshua Rush and Kyle Harrison Breitkopf), offer to look after them while the kids’ parents (Marisa Tomei, Tom Everett Scott) go out of town for a business trip. Of course, clashes are inevitable with Artie and Diane’s old-school approach doesn’t fit with the kids’ new-fangled upbringings. Hijinks and nut-shots ensue.

Parental Guidance is getting the widest release of the three new films (3,558 theaters, more than 500 more than Django and more than 700 more than Les Mis), so there’s that. But all that means to me is just that much more empty seats. I look for Parental Guidance to eke out maybe two or three Top 5 points, tops, along with no PTA, perhaps $50M in total take and a dreadful Rating. Pass, big time.




The very last film on the docket for 2012 is opening on Friday, December 28,in twenty-five theaters. It is the latest directorial project for Gus Van Sant, the man behind the camera for such critical darlings as Good Will Hunting and Milk, both of which netted him a nom for a Best Director Oscar. This outing is entitled Promised Land (Focus Features), which is opening in limited release this weekend before expanding nationwide next week.

The film stars Matt Damon as Steve Butler, an ace corporate salesman who is sent along with his partner Sue Thomason (Frances McDormand) to a small rural down in middle America in order to secure drilling rights for his natural gas company, a deal that would ostensibly revitalize a town hit so hard, along with many other towns like it, by the economic decline of recent years. Standing in their way are the objections of a retired schoolteacher (the ageless Hal Holbrook) and a grassroots campaign led by a mysterious stranger (John Krasinski). The film is “an exploration of the crossroads where big business and the strength of small-town communities converge.”

I’m not sure how strong the Oscar buzz surrounding Promised Land is, but the duo of Damon and Van Sant has struck gold before, and I would imagine that many people will flock to see this film based on that alone. Depending on how well Zero Dark Thirty holds, I look for Promised Land to pick up at least four PTA points on its first weekend. Depending on how wide it goes next week, however, that may be as many as it gets, despite the weak competition (only two films opening on January 4). It is priced at $6, but I think it will be a worthy pick.




My predictions for the weekend of December 28-30, 2012:

1. Django Unchained - $25 million ($50 million Tue-Sun)
2. Les Miserables - $24 million ($45 million Tue-Sun)
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $18 million
4. Parental Guidance - $10 million ($20 million Tue-Sun)
5. Jack Reacher - $23 million

PTA race (all leagues): Zero Dark Thirty, Promised Land, Amour, Les Miserables, Django Unchained

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Django Unchained – 92% (57/62 positive), N/A
Les Miserables – 71% (63/89 positive), 7.6 (3,642 votes)
Parental Guidance – 17% (2/12 positive), N/A
Promised Land – 71% (12/17 positive), N/A

Well, that will do it for me for yet another year. Next week, we will usher in a brand new year, a brand new set of games, and the first of another 244 previews. (Yikes, what a life.) On tap, apart from the wide-expansions of Promised Land and The Impossible, we have two new films to talk about. In wide-release, we have Texas Chainsaw 3D, the latest attempt to reinvigorate the classic slasher franchise; and, in limited release A Dark Truth, a dramatic thriller starring Andy Garcia, Forest Whitaker and Eva Longoria.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Julie Taymor (director, Frida and Across the Universe) turns 60 on 12/25
CCH Pounder (The Shield, Avatar) turns 60 on 12/25
Stan Lee (Marvel Comics chairman) turns 90 on 12/28
Nichelle Nichols (the original Uhura on Star Trek) turns 80 on 12/28
Inga Swenson (Benson, The Miracle Worker) turns 80 on 12/29
Jude Law (Sherlock Holmes, coming up in Side Effects) turns 40 on 12/29
Alison Brie (Mad Men, Community) turns 30 on 12/29
Fred Ward (The Right Stuff, Tremors) turns 70 on 12/30

Merry Christmas!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think both Django and Les Mis will be huge, I'm expecting at least $140M each.

Les Miz has been so heavily promoted, EVERYONE knows what this movie is. They've been smart enough not to let people onto the fact that it's about the French revolution of the 1800s (just typing it makes me sleepy), that it's 3 hours long, or that all the dialogue is apparently sung. Now that I think about it, all that could be very bad for its WOM and legs throughout January. I'm just hoping all the Oscar talk makes people interested enough to check it out.

And Django is Tarantino. It'll have Oscar buzz, great reviews, all the usual. If he can take a partially subtitled film set in France about Nazi's to $120M, in the ass end of summer, Django should be able to do a little better.

And how does Marissa Tomei still look so sexy at her age

[Buscemi]

Tarantino has been hit or miss at the box office. Pulp Fiction hit $100 million, Jackie Brown hit less than half of that, the Kill Bill installments nearly doubled Jackie Brown, Death Proof grossed less than half of the Kill Bill installments and Inglourious Basterds grossed $120 million. From looking at the cards, Tarantino's looking at an underperformer (unless you count Kill Bill as two, which not many do). We are kidding ourselves to think it will hit $100 million (just like we did when Jackie Brown came out).

[W]

The ones he whiffed on we're a B-movie double feature (when have those ever worked out) and one starring someone best known for a cult film from the 70's. Saying he's due for failure because of where those two films lie on his résumé is ridiculous.

This compares favorably to Basterds as it is a historical piece with big name actors that deals with racial/bigotry issues and has been Tarantinoized.

[silversurfer19]

... And Di Caprio has the Brad Pitt factor. That will bring in a female audience that may normally avoid QT movies.

[W]

Leo was the "big name actor" I was referring to.

[Buscemi]

The ones he whiffed on we're a B-movie double feature (when have those ever worked out) and one starring someone best known for a cult film from the 70's. Saying he's due for failure because of where those two films lie on his résumé is ridiculous.

This compares favorably to Basterds as it is a historical piece with big name actors that deals with racial/bigotry issues and has been Tarantinoized.

Except Django Unchained has more in common with those two than Basterds. This film is an attempt to bring back the spaghetti Westerns from the 1960's (hell, the namesake is a reference to the forgotten until now 1966 film Django) and it's by far his longest film (Grindhouse was a co-directing effort and that ran over three hours). While Inglourious Basterds was an easily accessible war film (of which we have a lot of), this is an ultra-violent Western with an strictly anti-Confederate theme (when's the last time that we've seen one of those and don't say Lincoln because even that film played it safe when referencing the South?). The film will not sell in middle America (where western and Civil War themed movies have thrived) because of these two factors (also because movies sold on a black lead rarely perform outside of the cities).

As for DiCaprio, he's had his share of flops. For every Titanic and Inception, he's had several like Revolutionary Road and The Beach.

[Buscemi]

As for predictions, Django and Les Miserables will have opening day in the $10-15 million before dropping fast (Django to word-of-mouth, Les Miserables to the fanboy effect) while Parental Guidance will do better than $10 million. With a 3,500 theatre opening, expect $15-18 million on the three-day.

[numbersix]

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $24 million
2. Les Miserables - $22 million ($40 million Tue-Sun)
3. Django Unchained - $20 million ($35 million Tue-Sun)
4. Parental Guidance - $12 million ($18 million Tue-Sun)
5. Jack Reacher - $11 million

The Hobbit should hold well as it's the closest to a family film outside of Parental Guidance (which does have a Cheaper by the Dozen vibe, though it doesn't seem to be marketing itself much).

As for Django, I can't say I agree with you Boosch on any of your points. You call it an ultraviolent Western but Inglourious was completely ultraviolent. You say it's a Western, but True Grit broke Western records (of course it's a different age rating so I doubt it'll come close to $170m) showing that it can still work. You say Middle America (who you love belittling at every opportunity) will hate it, but considering the star factor and the Tarantino factor I'd be surprised if it was boycotted - it will be perceived more as an outright action film rather than an anti-Confederate film, because it's playing for entertainment and not for serious drama. It'll probably perform better in cities because of the African-American leads and we've already seen this year how a film like that can make over $90m. And I'm not sure why you think word of mouth will hurt it. The people I know who have seen it loved it and have recommended it, and the reviews are great.

[Chienfantome]

I've only heard great things of Django from the people who've seen it here in France. I highly doubt word of mouth will hurt it.
Concerning Les Misérables Shryke, I have to point out that if there has already been several adaptation of Victor Hugo's classic novel, this has got to be the first musical one. Outside of France, it may be known as a musical, but here, nope, and all the films up until now have been musical-less.

[Wrestler]

And how does Marissa Tomei still look so sexy at her age

Answer: She doesn't. I saw the movie last night and she looks like a stressed out aging neurotic mess through the whole movie. Billy Crystal is super annoying in a dickish way through most of it and Tom Everett Scott and Tomei are barely in the movie. The first half of the movie does everything it can to make you hate both the parents and especially the grandparents while failing at every attempt for a laugh. The second half avoids any kind of forced humor and goes the "heart string" family film route which is certainly an improvement but not enough to save the movie. There is nothing in the film for kids and It is in no way a family film except for the fact that it is about a family.

[numbersix]

And how does Marissa Tomei still look so sexy at her age

The real answer is: never have kids

[numbersix]

interesting Xmas estimates in

Les Mis opened between $15 and 20m for Christmas Day!
Django opened between $10 and $13m
Parental Guidance opened bet $5 and $6m

All these are strong, but the real question is how they hold after Day 1. Films with limited apeal (such as Alien V Predator 2, in 2007) drop hard for the subsequent weekend, but films with family appeal (Water Horse) hold well. Boosch may be half right about Parental Guidance. Possible $15m weekend.

Hard to make a call on Les Mis, but if you look at Sweeney Todd's internal multiplier for that weekend you could see Les Mis earning 40m for the weekend! I doubt this, due to frontloading and theatre saturation (Sweeney Todd didn't open super-side), but a 30m opening weekend is possible.

Django is also hard to call. It's obviously not AvP 2 but probably will see the lowest multiplier. I'd say it'll make about $20-25 for the weekend.

[Chienfantome]

Very strong numbers indeed. It will be interesting to see the weekend numbers, especially after a tuesday opening.

[Buscemi]

Sweeney Todd did have a much smaller opening than Les Miserables (only 1,100 from what I remember).

As for legs, I'll wait for the Cinemascores. Les Miserables and Parental Guidance should have good ones (musical fans are forgiving for the most part while family films usually have strong scores).