SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/7

[Shrykespeare]

Unsurpisingly, the Top 5 stayed pretty much put for the second straight week, though every holdover took a fairly sizable tumble. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 held sway for the third straight week, edging out Skyfall which seems determined to keep pace, almost dollar for dollar. On the PTA front, Rust and Bone took over the top spot, just ahead of Silver Linings Playbook which hasn’t slowed down despite expanding to several hundred theaters.

The first weekend of December is habitually a poor one for box office numbers, and it doesn’t look like any of the major studios are looking to try to buck that trend. Just like last week, only one new film has been shoved into this undesirable spot, and that film is Playing For Keeps (FilmDistrict), the second sports film in six weeks to star Gerard Butler. However, unlike Chasing Mavericks, which was a drama involving surfing, Playing For Keeps is going for a lighter mood, as it is described as a romantic comedy with a soccer theme.

Playing For Keeps, which was helmed by Italian director Gabriel Muccino (The Pursuit of Happyness, Seven Pounds), tells the story of George Dryer (Butler), a washed-up former soccer star who has turned to coaching his son’s team while trying to get his life together. At first it’s all fun and games, reconnecting with his son while fending off advances from star-struck soccer moms, but when a tantalizing career opportunity opens up, George must decide whether to put himself ahead of his family once again. Jessica Biel, Uma Thurman, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Dennis Quaid co-star.

Well, even though it has a much more notable cast and director than Chasing Mavericks did, Playing for Keeps’ prospects aren’t that much brighter. I haven’t seen much advertising for it, and with a release platform of 2,700 theaters, I would be shocked if it scored more than one Top 5 point. I look for an OW of about $6M, on its way to $15M total. With heavy hitters This is 40, Parental Guidance and The Guilt Trip looking to steal away the comedy bucks around Christmas, Playing For Keeps is little more than an afterthought. It’s only $7, true, but $15M and three PTA points is not worth that price tag.




The more noteworthy of the three limited-release films on the docket this weekend is Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features), the latest outing for director Roger Michell (Notting Hill, Morning Glory). It is a biographical comedy-drama starring Bill Murray, Laura Linney and Olivia Williams, and it is set to debut on four screens starting Friday.

Hyde Park chronicles the events of June 1939, wherein King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (Samuel West, Olivia Colman) became the first British monarchs to visit the U.S., spending some time at the estate of an ailing FDR (Murray) scant months before the onset of WWII. Around this time, ol’ Franklin was engaging in an inappropriate relationship with his distant cousin Margaret (Linney) unbeknownst to his wife Eleanor (Williams).

When I heard about this film months ago, I figured it would be a critical darling, another feather in the cap of Murray, whose resume has always been the picture of eclectic… but it hasn’t turned out that way. Reviews have been mixed, with the more negative criticisms being that while visually accurate and beautiful, the story itself is poorly written and devoid of any meaning.

However, the news isn’t all bad; in fact, in the December leagues, the news is rather good. Despite its rather meager User Rating, Hyde Park on Hudson is well set-up to get very good PTA points. It should easily take #1 (since November movies are not considered for PTA in the December leagues), and it should hold on for #2 next week, when only The Hobbit looks to compete. That’s a minimum of nine PTA points for only $6, and that’s a pretty damn good tradeoff.




By the same logic, you might be able to get good mileage out of Deadfall (Magnolia), which will also be opening in four theaters this weekend before expanding to low double digits by the end of the month. Directed by Austrian helmer Stefan Ruzowitzky, the film stars Eric Bana, Olivia Wilde, Charlie Hunnam, Sissy Spacek, Kris Kristofferson and Treat Williams.

The story: siblings Addison (Bana) and Liza (Wilde) are forced to split up following a casino heist when their car crashes, leaving their wheel-man and a state trooper dead. Making a run for Canada during a blizzard, Liza is soon picked up by Jay, an ex-con heading home for the holidays to be with his parents (Spacek, Kristofferson). But the family reunion is spoiled when Addison turns up, determined to leave no witnesses to their crime spree.

Deadfall will probably earn four PTA this weekend, and perhaps another one or two next weekend. That’s not bad for its price tag, and on top of that, it has a somewhat better Rating than Hyde Park on Hudson. It’s not the best pick, for sure, but it’s satisfactory, and there are so few sure things in this game. For $4, I would consider taking it.




Last up is Lay the Favorite (Radius-TWC), the latest film from director Stephen Frears, who was behind the camera for such notable films as Dangerous Liaisons, High Fidelity, The Grifters and The Queen (the last two for which he was nominated for an Oscar). Lay the Favorite is a comedy, and it will be bowing in forty theaters starting Friday. It was just added to the roster recently, so don’t beat yourself up if you haven’t heard of this film, which was based on Beth Raymer’s memoir of the same title.

Beth (Rebecca Hall) is a rather ditzy Vegas cocktail waitress who happens to be very good with numbers. This talent is noticed by habitual gambler Dink Heimowitz (Bruce Willis), who soon makes Beth her good luck charm… that is, until Dink’s frigid wife Tulip (Catherine Zeta-Jones, again) puts the kibosh on their relationship, causing Dink’s luck to run out and Beth to head for New York with her new beau (Joshua Jackson), a smarmy bookie who gets Beth in really hot water before lone. Vince Vaughn is also listed in the cast, though I didn’t see him in the trailer.

Bad reviews, bad Rating, and a bad release platform. This would virtually assure it of zero PTA points any other week, but because there are only four films debuting this week, it will pick up a minimum of two (three if Playing For Keeps tanks worse than expected). For $3, I don’t think it’s worth it.




My predictions for the weekend of December 7-9, 2012:

Beats the shit out of me. Skyfall will probably win, but the rest is a total crapshoot. The Top 5 from last week will probably be the Top 5 this week, with an outside shot for Playing For Keeps to sneak in there somewhere.

PTA race (Oct, Nov leagues): Hyde Park on Hudson, Rust and Bone, Deadfall, Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln

PTA race (Dec leagues): Hyde Park on Hudson, Deadfall, Playing For Keeps, Lay the Favorite

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Playing For Keeps – N/A, N/A
Hyde Park on Hudson – 56% (10/18 positive); 5.9 (269 votes)
Deadfall – 47% (7/15 positive); 6.5 (3,587 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for this week. Next week, the long-awaited prequel to the Lord of the Rings trilogy hits theaters, as The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey kicks off a brand new trilogy for Middle Earth-lovers. Also on tap are limited releases Any Day Now and Save the Date.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week (and last week):

Mandy Patinkin (The Princess Bride) turned 60 on 11/30
Little Richard (R&B legend) turns 80 on 12/5
Janine Turner (Northern Exposure, Cliffhanger) turns 50 on 12/6
Ellen Burstyn (The Exorcist, Requiem For a Dream) turns 80 on 12/7
Nicki Minaj (singer, new American Idol judge) turns 30 on 12/8
Dick Butkus (football great, My Two Dads) turns 70 on 12/9
Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives, Transamerica) turns 50 on 12/9
Susan Dey (The Partridge Family, L.A. Law) turns 60 on 12/10

Later!

[Buscemi]

A new movie with Treat Williams? Though it will never play near me, Deadfall sounds like it's right up my alley (Olivia Wilde is also a plus).

Anyway...

1. Skyfall $11 million
2. Lincoln $10 million
3. Breaking Dawn Part 2 $9 million
4. Life of Pi $9 million
5. Rise of the Guardians $8 million
6. Playing for Keeps $6 million
-- Killing Them Softly $2 million
-- The Collection $1 million

[numbersix]

1. Skyfall $10 million
2. Breaking Dawn Part 2 $9 million
3. Lincoln $8.5 million
4. Rise of the Guardians $8 million
5. Life of Pi $7 million
6. Playing for Keeps $6.5million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Will the re-release of End of Watch crack the Top 10?


.....probably not.

[Buscemi]

It already played second-run so it more than likely won't hit $1,000 PTA for the weekend.

[Buscemi]

Tracking on Playing for Keeps: MTC $5 million, RS high single digits

Sounds like a $6-6.5 million opening.

[Brockster]

I wish Butler would stop making movies like this...I think he's a good actor, and he seems like a pretty funny guy, but he loses a lot of my respect by doing shit like this

[Buscemi]

Butler's time as a potential next big thing has passed. It's gotten to the point where he's doing these cheapies because it's all he can get (after this fails, watch him enter Nicolas Cage territory and do straight-to-DVD/100 theatres for a week and a half type movies). The thing that surprises me is that Gabriele Muccino agreed to direct it. He's a highly-respected director in his native Italy and his first two American films did well (sure Seven Pounds ended Will Smith's $100 million streak but it was a hard premise to sell and its gross was respectable for the subject matter) but why he agreed to make a straight-to-DVD quality film with a number of has-beens is puzzling.

[Chienfantome]

Muccino is a terrible, terrible director, and Butler needs to understand that he works better as a supporting character actor than as a romantic lead.

[Buscemi]

The Last Kiss was terrible (so was the remake, which was basically Garden State 2) but his movies got better after that.

[Chienfantome]

Personally I think he gets worse with time. His films with Will Smith are just... I prefer not to say it, let's just say I will never ever watch them again.

[Shonenbat]

He's a highly-respected director in his native Italy

We are over him too. I actually liked his first italian films, but the american ones were just awful.

[empire13]

Most of his work is marginal in my mind, but I thought Seven Pounds was quite good.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Playing For Keeps - 2,837
Lay the Favorite - 61
Hyde Park on Hudson - 4
Deadfall - 4


Estimates for Next Week:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 4,000
Save the Date - 2

[Buscemi]

The reissue of End of Watch is in 1,249 theatres. I'm only expecting $375,000 for the weekend.