SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/7

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report:


Ult FY R10 (12 players), Ult HY R5 (13 players)

Playing for Keeps - 0, 0
Hyde Park on Hudson - 0, 0
Deadfall - 0, 0
Lay the Favorite - 0, 0


Ult Mini Supers (R1 - 33 players; R2 - 31 players)

Playing for Keeps - 0, 1
Hyde Park on Hudson - 4, 11
Deadfall - 1, 2
Lay the Favorite - 0, 1


Bankrupts, 4th Quarter (Ult - 14 players, BO - 17 players)

Playing For Keeps - 7, 6


BO FY R10 (17 players), BO HY R5 (13 players)

Playing for Keeps - 0, 0
Hyde Park on Hudson - 0, 0
Deadfall - 0, 0
Lay the Favorite - 0, 0


BO Mini Supers (R1 - 32 players; R2 - 30 players)

Playing for Keeps - 0, 0
Hyde Park on Hudson - 0, 1
Deadfall - 1, 1
Lay the Favorite - 0, 0

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Skyfall, $3.1M
Twilight: BD2, $2.8M
Lincoln, $2.6M
Rise of the Guardians, $2.3M
Life of Pi, $2.3M
Playing For Keeps, $2.1M
Red Dawn, $1.3M
Wreck-It Ralph, $1.1M
Flight, $912K
Killing Them Softly, $881K


Weekend Projections:

Skyfall, $10.8M
Rise of the Guardians, $10.6M
Twilight: BD2, $9M
Lincoln, $8.8M
Life of Pi, $8.5M
Playing For Keeps, $6M
Wreck-It Ralph, $4.9M
Red Dawn, $4.1M
Flight, $3.1M
Killing Them Softly, $2.8M
Silver Linings Playbook, $2.2M


This would give Skyfall 22 Top 5 points, only the second film to have 20+ all year. Twilight now has 18, so it could get to 20 as well. Neither is likely to catch The Hunger Games, which had 31.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I can't wait to see what kind of gap there'll be next week between The Hobbit and whatever's number 2.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates


Top 11:
5 points - Skyfall, $11M
4 points - Rise of the Guardians, $10.5M
3 points - Twilight: BD2, $9.2M
2 points - Lincoln, $9.1M
1 point - Life of Pi, $8.3M
Playing For Keeps, $6M
Wreck-It Ralph, $4.9M
Red Dawn, $4.3M
Flight, $3.1M
Killing Them Softly, $2.7M
Silver Linings Playbook, $2.2M

PTA (Oct/Nov):
5 points - Hyde Park on Hudson
4 points - Rust and Bone
3 points - Silver Linings Playbook
2 points - Lincoln
1 point - Anna Karenina

PTA (Dec):
5 points - Hyde Park on Hudson
? points - Playing for Keeps

No word yet on Deadfall or Lay the Favorite.


Glad to see I was right about Hyde Park getting a great PTA score ($20K) despite so-so reviews.

And wow... that's 15 PTA for Lincoln, 13 for Rust and Bone, 13 for Silver Linings and 11 for Anna Karenina.

[Brockster]

Rise of the Guardians, although not a great pick, will end up being at least a halfway decent pick. It has 9 top five points right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if it picked up 5 or 6 more and end around 14-15 range. Should end in the 80-90M range, 7.5 imdb....the only category it failed was PTA, where I think it didn't make any. Again, not a great pick, but not the disaster it looked like (at least for the game purposes) a couple weeks ago.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 11:
5 points - Skyfall, $10.8M
4 points - Rise of the Guardians, $10.4M
3 points - Twilight: BD2, $9.2M
2 points - Lincoln, $8.9M
1 point - Life of Pi, $8.3M
Playing For Keeps, $5.7M
Wreck-It Ralph, $4.9M
Red Dawn, $4.2M
Flight, $3.1M
Killing Them Softly, $2.8M
Silver Linings Playbook, $2.2M

PTA (Oct/Nov):
5 points - Hyde Park on Hudson, $20,341
4 points - Rust and Bone, $13,015
3 points - Silver Linings Playbook, $5,854
2 points - Lincoln, $4,427
1 point - Anna Karenina, $3,661

PTA (Dec):
5 points - Hyde Park on Hudson, $20,341
4 points - Playing For Keeps, $2,027
3 points - Deadfall, $1,763
2 points - Lay the Favorite, $344

Wow, that has to be a record for the lowest PTA to ever get two PTA points. And damn, I was hoping for a much higher number for Deadfall.

[empire13]

In the case of Deadfall, it was available on demand before its theatrical release. Now, I don't know if there's any hard data available, but I continue to think that VOD negatively affects theatrical numbers with films in limited release. Does anyone else want to weigh in on this? Boosh? Boosh? (That was my extremely abstract and not very funny Ferris Bueller reference, sorry)

[Buscemi]

I've never been a fan of the VOD to theatrical concept but whether we like it or not, the indie labels will continue to do it since it's good for their income. Theatrical is really nothing more than a second outlet for many of these films (though Arbitrage was an exception to the rule since it did well theatrically as well as VOD). Even people who normally don't go to the arthouse or don't live anywhere near one can and will watch an indie film this way (my sister saw the Kirsten Dunst film Bachelorette this way and mentioned that despite the premium cost, it was totally worth seeing).

Though I do have to say there is one good thing about VOD: it's a good way to discover new and up-and-coming talent along with some old favorites (my main reason for seeing Deadfall is that it's got Olivia Wilde and Treat Williams in it). Where else are you going to see a new film with a good but not A-list lead like Elizabeth Olsen or Samantha Morton in it?

[Chienfantome]

So what's the PTA count for Rust & Bone, LIncoln, Silver Linings and Anna Karenine ? They've been packing them for weeks now.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It was a huge mistake of a studio not releasing anything worthwhile this weekend, anyone of the dozens of wide releases clogging up the last two weeks of this month could e had a nice OW, get some press, and have decent legs throughout the holidays.

[Buscemi]

This is 40 and The Guilt Trip probably would have done okay opening this week or next. And Cirque du Soleil opened in Quebec this week so Paramount could have platformed that one.

[numbersix]

It was a huge mistake of a studio not releasing anything worthwhile this weekend, anyone of the dozens of wide releases clogging up the last two weeks of this month could e had a nice OW, get some press, and have decent legs throughout the holidays.

That didn't work for The Sitter. It just got pushed aside by the films released during the holidays.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It was a huge mistake of a studio not releasing anything worthwhile this weekend, anyone of the dozens of wide releases clogging up the last two weeks of this month could e had a nice OW, get some press, and have decent legs throughout the holidays.

That didn't work for The Sitter. It just got pushed aside by the films released during the holidays.

Well I guess I was working under the assumption that the movie would be good.
Literally everything coming out this month looks better than The Sitter or New Years Eve.

[transformers2]

I think releasing This is 40 last weekend would've been a brilliant move by Universal. No competition, the early reviews have been great, and the WOM should be really good as well. It's a shame because it will probably lose about 20 mil worth of gross because of it's release date positioning.