SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/21, 11/23

[Shrykespeare]

Never did do this:


Official Theater Counts:

Rise of the Guardians - 3,653
Life of Pi - 2,902
Red Dawn - 2,679
Rust and Bone - 2
(Hitchcock - 17)

Silver Linings Playbook - 367


Estimates for next week:

Killing Them Softly - 2,000
The Collection - N/A

Weekend estimates up shortly.

[Buscemi]

The Collection is set to open in 1,000-1,500 theatres. I really don't get why they are putting this one in theatres, seeing how hardly anyone saw The Collector (total box office: $7.7 million).

[numbersix]

The Collection is set to open in 1,000-1,500 theatres. I really don't get why they are putting this one in theatres, seeing how hardly anyone saw The Collector (total box office: $7.7 million).

The Collector built up a very strong audience on DVD, so this wide release is an attempt to capitalise on that.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates:


Top 10:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 2, $43.1M (-69.5%)
4 points - Skyfall, $36.0M
3 points - Lincoln, $25.0M
2 points - Rise of the Guardians, $24.0M
1 point - Life of Pi, $22.0M
Wreck-It Ralph, $16.7M
Red Dawn, $14.6M
Flight, $8.6M
Silver Linings Playbook, $4.6M
Argo, $3.9M

PTA:
5 points - Rust and Bone
4 points - Anna Karenina
3 points - Silver Linings Playbook
2 points - Lincoln
1 point - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 2

All of these films, and also Skyfall, had PTAs of over $10K.

[numbersix]

What happened to the Quick Reply option?

Anyway, it's a crazy week when opening to $22m only gets you 5th place. I think all of therse films should hold their positions for next weekend too.

I am surprised that Anna Karenina held well in terms of PTA. 7 points makes it a worthy pick. Rust and Bone was an obvious winner, and should earn at least 12 PTA points.

And Silver Linings had a strong PTA, suggesting that it'll continue expanding and go wide.

[bestfilm]

Uncertainty on 2nd-4th PTA positions.
Rust and bone gets 5, but it earns less than some of you expected, I think. We'll see if and how many PTA gets in the next weeks; with this average there souldn't be such an expansion.
Next week, Skyfall might be first again.

[Buscemi]

Of course, everything's going to drop over 50% next week.

As for Rust and Bone, it's scheduled to have a decent expansion over the next few months. A lot of multiplexes are scheduled to book it.

Meanwhile, the disappointment of the week has to be Hitchcock. Only a PTA of $17,000 with its subject and strong cast. Looks like once again, movies about Hollywood don't sell.

[Shrykespeare]

Bestfilm's right, the #2-4 spots in PTA are separated by only a few hundred dollars in PTA.

And yes, Skyfall might be #1 again. I peg Rise of the Guardians to drop very little and come in at #2.

And not everything is guaranteed to drop 50% or more. Last year, the holds were actually pretty good. Twilight and The Muppets plummeted, yes, but Hugo, Arthur Christmas and The Descendants all dropped less than 40%.

[Buscemi]

Of course, Hugo and The Descendants added a bunch of theatres.

Meanwhile, I have to wonder what made this Thanksgiving so special compared to other Thanksgivings. Hardly any of the movies looked good this time around.

[Chienfantome]

I'm very disappointed by RUst and Bone's PTA number, I was expecting much more. At least it does get the points it deserves, but still...

[Buscemi]

Apparently if American audiences want romance, they choose the two most lecherous ones possible.

[bestfilm]

Big changes and surprises with PTA actuals.
Anna Karenina gets the crown on its second week (who whould've said it?), Rust and bone's average is even poorer than what was estimated and SLP just gets 2, overcome by a strong Lincoln.

[empire13]

Yeah, very disappointed in Rust & Bone. Was hoping for 10-12 PTA points. Guess I'm glad I took a chance on Anna Karenina. Very surprised by that. I only wish I hadn't married myself to Rise of the Guardians on so many slates. God, give it legs up to its eyeballs.

[empire13]

I think Life of Pi will be this year's Hugo. With even better numbers.

[numbersix]

Yes, that is a surprise. Can't believe Rust and Bone opened to a lower PTA than A Prophet. Perhaps it was an oversaturated market.

It'll be interesting to see what happens this weekend. I don't think it's expanding until Dec 7, and then it is only an additional 4 theatres. So it has 3 more weeks to earn PTA points, which it very well may do. Should still make 10 PTA points in total, but could get more.