SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/22

[Shrykespeare]

Five weeks and counting. Twenty-five Top 5 points, nineteen PTA points, an 8.7 User Rating, and oh yes, nearly half a billion dollars earned. Holy schnikes. Denzel made a game of it, but nothing seems to be slowing this juggernaut down. By the time next week, Avatar will likely have passed The Dark Knight for #2 on the all-time list, and could be #1 by the end of the month. You know, records WERE meant to be broken, after all. One can only wonder what film will come along some time down the line that will break this one. Scary thought, huh?

Three films make their debut this Friday, on January 22nd, and it’s probably they are as different as can be: a slapstick-y family comedy, a horror/thriller and a serious drama. Whether any of them will open to a level of acceptance higher than mere indifference remains to be seen, but someone’s got to be the one to end Avatar’s streak, doesn’t it?

The film opening the widest this week is Tooth Fairy, the latest family comedy to star former college football star, pro wrestler and Scorpion King Dwayne “Not the Rock Anymore” Johnson. A few years ago, I would have bet real money that he would attempt to be the next big-budget action star, but to his credit, he went a different route. And to prove that point, you can see that the last three films he’s had top billing in have all been family films (The Game Plan, Race to Witch Mountain, Planet 51). I can only guess that being a dad had something to do with that decision, which I commend him for. He actually as a fair amount of acting talent (well, more than you might have expected) and a lot of charisma.

But the question is: can Johnson in a tutu and wings draw a crowd? Well, perhaps I’d better qualify that statement: In Tooth Fairy, Johnson plays Derek Thompson, a hard-nosed minor league hockey player who has been given the moniker “The Tooth Fairy” because he has a habit of… well, messing up opponents’ dental work, if you get my drift. And since it seems that he’s as bad off the ice as he is on it, it’s only a matter of time before he gets called on his B.S.

One misdeed too many gets him a one-week sentence as, you guessed it, a REAL tooth fairy, wherein he must visit the homes of kids and leave money under their pillows. He is put through his paces by Lily (Julie Andrews), a senior fairy who is every bit as tough as he is. Before long, Derek begins to warm to his new position, rediscover his own forgotten dreams, and all sorts of other warm, fuzzy stuff too. Ashley Judd and Billy Crystal (where have THEY been?) costar.

Given that The Spy Next Door failed to make even a ripple in the box office tidal pool, the door would seem to be wide open for Tooth Fairy, which has a better studio backing it (Fox), a director with a better track record (Michael Lembeck, who helmed the last two Santa Clause movies), a better ad campaign and a much more solid lead actor (sorry, Jackie).

It will run you $13 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, but be warned before you even think of taking it in Ultimate: it comes with some heavy baggage…namely, a current User Rating of 3.9. Now granted, that is with not even 150 votes, but do you really think it’s going to improve that much? It will probably need to crack $25 million to have any chance at beating Avatar, which has got to run out of steam at some point. (Right???) But even if it doesn’t, it should end up with at least eight Top 5 points, three PTA and about $60 million if it takes off well. Movies like this often have good legs, and there is very little in the next few months aimed specifically at kids, so there’s that. I’d recommend it in Box Office, but that User Rating is just too low to be a viable Ultimate pick.

Regardless of what else may happen, I figure Avatar and Tooth Fairy are a lock to finish in the top two positions (in whatever order). Third place will very likely be The Book Of Eli, which had a very impressive OW, even beating Avatar on its first day. I’m betting #4 will be Legion, a horror/thriller from Sony Screen Gems. And if you thought Eli was rife with biblical connotations, then you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

This is the first major directorial project for Scott Stewart, who has spent the better part of the last decade as a visual effects man. Rated R for violence, profanity and some extremely disturbing images (if the trailer is anything to go by), Legion unfolds when the Man Upstairs has finally had it with humanity’s crap, and has sent a vast army of angels to snuff us out once and for all. That is, except for one lone savior, the archangel Michael (Paul Bettany), who has decided to be mankind’s final champion.

The center of the battle seems to be a small town in New Mexico, where Michael seeks to protect a young waitress named Charlie (Adrianne Palicki), who just may be pregnant with Christ in his second coming. Along with her are a bevy of familiar faces, played by veteran actors like Dennis Quaid, Charles S. Dutton, Tyrese Gibson and Lucas Black. Together, they must try to withstand maybe the most fearsome army ever assembled. I mean, seriously… if GOD wants us dead, it may be time to put our affairs in order, huh?

Scheduled to debut in roughly 2,500 theaters, I imagine a fair opening for Legion, perhaps in the neighborhood of $15 million, possibly less, given that this is practically the same genre as Eli, but with less star power. For $9 in Ultimate, I predict two Top 5 points, maybe one PTA if it’s lucky, and a User Rating in the high 6’s. There’s simply too much going on for this to really stand out, and I don’t think it will make much more than $30 million total, which puts it out of the realm of respectability for the $8 you’d spend on it in Box Office as well. Sorry.

Even less desirable may be Extraordinary Measures. Not because it lacks star power, or an uplifting story, or a bad ad campaign. Actually, I don’t know if I can put my finger on why this film will probably fail, but something just tells me it will. Perhaps that’s unfair, but sometimes you have to take a flyer in this game.

Measures tells the story of John Crowley (Brendan Fraser), a biotechnology executive whose two youngest children were afflicted with a rare genetic disorder called “Pompe Disease” – basically, they lack a certain enzyme needed to break down glycogen, which results in progressive muscular degeneration. John, along with his wife Aileen (Keri Russell), seek out the aid of eccentric researcher Robert Stonehill (Harrison Ford), who just might be their last hope to find a cure before their kids are beyond help.

Based on true events outlaid in the bestselling book “The Cure” by Geeta Anand, this looks like the kind of story that follows the predictable pattern of dramas like this: things look bad, things look worse, and the last-ditch effort turns into a miracle. Now, I may be completely off base with this prediction, as I don’t know the story behind this, but I would venture that this is how the movie will play out. Not that there’s anything wrong with that… happy endings are what most moviegoers covet, especially in these dark economic times. I’m just not sure this is the vehicle for hope that the folks at CBS Films thinks it will be.

I don’t imagine an opening weekend of much more than $12 million, which means it will have to outduel The Lovely Bones for that fifth and final spot in the Top 5. Granted, it’s only $6 in the Ultimate leagues, but you’d still like a better return on your investment than one Top 5 points (if that), no PTA, and a fair-to-middling User Rating. $5 in Box Office is better, but only if you think it can pull over $20 million, which might be a stretch.

Only one other film to mention this week, and that is To Save a Life. It’s not available in the January leagues, but it is still available in the December leagues, so I figure it’s worth a mention. It is a Christian film, coming in limited release from Samuel Goldwyn studios.

It tells the story of Jake Taylor (Randy Wayne) and Roger Dawson (Robert Bailey, Jr.), two high-schoolers who are polar opposites: Jake is the most popular kid in school, while Roger is practically a pariah. At one time they were friends, but the chasm of popularity between them caused them to drift apart. Things get even worse when Roger commits suicide, forcing Jake into a crisis of conscience, given that he did nothing to stop it from happening. From there, Jake re-examines his outlook on life, and must make a choice between the ephemeral illusion of popularity and doing what is right by his faith.

Sounds nice enough, I suppose. Since there are no other limited-release films on the docket for this week, it may be worth checking into. For $3 it could be a good source for cheap PTA points, and it probably won’t hurt you much in the User Rating category either.


My predictions for the weekend of January 22-24, 2010:

1. Avatar – $32 million
2. Tooth Fairy – $26 million
3. The Book of Eli – $17 million
4. Legion – $14 million
5. Extraordinary Measures – $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four new films to talk about as we close out the first month of 2010 (boy, that went quick, didn’t it?). Mel Gibson makes his long-awaited return to the big screen in Edge of Darkness, where he plays a homicide detective who goes on the warpath against the people who murdered his activist daughter; When in Rome, a trite-looking romantic comedy starring Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel; as well as limited-release features Off and Running and Saint John of Las Vegas.

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Might To Save A Life be the next Fireproof?

[thswrestler160]

i got my money on that it will be. my theater is opening to save a life on friday and we already have a few hundred tickets sold for it including a couple special screenings for church groups. depending on theater counts I wouldnt be suprised if tsal poped into the top 5.

[Buscemi]

To Save A Life is coming here too. God, is this what Samuel Goldwyn has reduced itself to? Cheap after-Sunday school specials that should go straight to video instead of the art films that they used to distribute?

As for box office, I expect a $1 million opening and a $2.5 million finish. The California preachers who funded this one aren't as money-hungry and soulless as the Kendrick Brothers.

[undeadmonkey]

Have you seen To Save A Life?

[Buscemi]

No but since it's a movie produced by a church, you can expect the same shit that you see in the rest of them (low production values, bad acting, poor script and direction, combined with a mixed message to make you think that your money is helping people in need).

I hope that The Book Of Eli and Legion kill this movie at the box office. You know, the "quality" religion films.

[undeadmonkey]

Dont knock it till you try it. Just because it's produced by a church doesn't make it automatically bad. Now i'm not saying that it'll be good, you might actually be right, but you can't just automatically say it'll be horrible. That's just plain prejudice.

[J.I.]

I have seen several, several audience reviews calling it "definitely not a cheesy Christian movie." I don't think it will make as much as Fireproof, but it will still surprise most people in the industry.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well, I'm glad I bought it on HSX for $1 a share.

I've seen bits of Fireproof and the production value is VERY VERY low. I don't know about the story, but the acting looked pretty atrocious.

[Shrykespeare]

Box Office Guru's Predictions:

Avatar - $32M (will pass TDK)
Tooth Fairy - $18M
Book of Eli - $16M
Legion - $12M
Extraordinary Measures - $9M
Lovely Bones - $9M

[Shrykespeare]

BOM's Poll question of the day: Most Anticipated movie of 2010. After 2,222 votes:

1. Iron Man 2
2. Harry Potter 7.1
3. Inception
4. Toy Story 3
5. Alice in Wonderland
6. Clash of the Titans
7. Twilight: Eclipse
8. Tron Legacy
9. Expendables
10. Chronicles of Narnia: Dawn Treader

Interesting.

[silversurfer19]

I wouldn't be surprised if those top 4 movies were the top grossers of the year.

[Buscemi]

Why do I see Alice In Wonderland being this year's Watchmen? The movie looks as if it will scare children, the characters are more fucked-up looking (as in, unused Ralph Steadman sketches) than cool and the ads focus more on The Mad Hatter than Alice. It's like as if Disney gave Tim Burton total creative freedom and vomited out a movie only emos would like.

Please Tim, return to your Pee Wee/Beetlejuice/Batman roots. The emo/Johnny Depp plays the same character every time shtick is wearing thin.

Also, Pee Wee Herman totally killed on Conan last night. He's still got it (and surprisingly hasn't aged much since 1985).

[numbersix]

There's no way Inception will crack the top 5. Crap like Twilight 3 will beat it.

[silversurfer19]

I thought the same way about TDK. Never underestimate the power of word of mouth if a movie is good.