SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/8

[Shrykespeare]

It’s the start of a new year, a new game, a new age. Let us give thanks one more time to donnie and her erstwhile crew of Italian entrepreneurs who have made it all possible. Speaking on a personal note, thank you for unloading the tremendous burden I had to shoulder by keeping the game going after FM folded. And if this is the first column that will be linked to from the new MMG site, it’s just possible that this may be reaching the largest audience I’ve had in well over a year. So, I’d better make this column a good one! Oh, jeez, opening night jitters…. (Grin.)

Well, Avatar has proved me wrong in spades by surpassing Twilight: New Moon's total numbers in very short order. It looks like James Cameron’s (successful) attempt to re-establish himself as the “king of the world” has become the first winter film to surpass $300 million since The Return of the King did it in 2003. It also has become the first film to win three consecutive weekends since Tropic Thunder did in August of 2008. Can any of the leadoff hitters for 2010 stem the tide?

Well, that is, in a word, doubtful. Even if Avatar sinks to, say, $25 million in its third weekend, any of the three new wide-release films will be hard-pressed to make that much, but January films usually represent a drop-off in movie-going interest. The residual efforts of films like Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel and Up in the Air could be hard to overcome. But if any of these three films has the gumption to crack the Top 5, it just might be Daybreakers. And keep in mind that there is a new rule in the Ultimate game, that being that only movies being released THIS WEEKEND will be considered when awarding PTA points in the January season. Given that there are six films scheduled, that means that all but one will be walking away with at least one PTA point.

This horror movie – with a sci-fi twist – is the latest creepy outing from Lionsgate Pictures, and is the first American release for German-born directors Michael and Peter Spierig. It’s an interesting “what if” premise: as in, what if the world’s population was almost entirely vampires, who must feed on what few humans remain for their blood. But now, in the year 2019, their society has reached a tipping point: they are on the verge of running out of blood entirely, which could mean the extinction of their race, or worse – those few that survive would be transformed into slavering, bestial bat-like creatures.

The main villain of the film is Charles Bromley (Sam Neill) the head of a powerful corporation that holds the largest remaining stock of human blood still in existence. Working for him is researcher Edward Dalton (Ethan Hawke), who is trying to find a way to cure vampirism entirely. Opposing just about everyone is Lionel “Elvis” Cormac (Willem Defoe, having a blast), a former vampire turned vampire-hunter.

It’s interesting to note that on Rotten Tomatoes, Daybreakers currently has a “100% Fresh” score. Now, don’t get carried away… most of these reviews come from fan-mags, but it’s still worth noting, as is the fact that its pre-release User Rating on IMDb is a hearty 8.6 (with over 600 votes). Again, don’t get carried away, this is bound to drop by at least a full point when the general public gets a glimpse, but still, a rating in the mid-7’s is exceptional for films in this genre and with this release date.

This film will run you $12 in the Ultimate leagues. It has a chance at picking up some PTA points, as well as a very good User Rating, but I don’t think that it will procure much more than four or five Top 5 points, and $35 million seems like the ceiling for this first big film out of the gate. $8 in Box Office may be a better bargain, but January is so hit-or-miss… there are four or five movies that COULD be hits, but will they? That remains a mystery.

Up next we have Leap Year, 2010’s first romantic comedy. It stars Amy Adams, who is currently on a hot streak, having received critical acclaim for her last three starring roles (Doubt, Sunshine Cleaning, Julie & Julia). And as much as I would like to believe that this film, directed by Thai helmer Anand Tucker (Shopgirl), will continue her streak, I just don’t see it happening. Judging from the trailers, it looks to be about as formulaic, trite and predictable as they come.

Amy plays Anna, a girl who is waiting patiently for her boyfriend Jeremy (Adam Scott) to pop the question. But after one more opportunity goes by with no luck, she decides to follow him to Dublin – where he is ostensibly headed on a business trip – in order to propose to him. For you see, there’s an old Irish tradition that says that when a man is proposed to on Leap Day (February 29th), he has to accept. Yeah, good luck with that…

Running into turbulence en route and forced to divert to Wales, she hooks up with Declan (Watchmen’s Matthew Goode), a cab driver who has agreed to take her to her beau. What’ll you bet she develops feelings for Declan whilst enduring every road-trip pitfall there is? Seriously, it looks just like an unfunny version of The Sure Thing dropped into a P.S. I Love You setting to me!

Up until this past week, I had not seen any television advertising for this film, but now it seems to be everywhere. I wouldn’t have thought it had a shot at breaching the Top 5, but now I think it has a chance. Last year, the Christmas holdovers all dropped about 55-60% on this particular weekend, allowing Bride Wars and The Unborn to slip in at #2 and #3. However, last year’s Christmas movies don’t even hold a candle to this year’s, so take that as read.

Scheduled to be released in about 2,500 locations (about the same as Daybreakers), I see it dueling with Daybreakers for that #4 spot. It may get a couple of PTA as well given the new rule, but is that worth spending $10 on it in Ultimate ($7 in Box Office). Not hardly. I foresee this making about $25 million, total, and it probably won’t have a User Rating north of the 6.0 mark. Pass on this one.

Third up is Youth in Revolt, the latest outing from Puerto Rican director Miguel Arteta (whose debut project in 1997, Star Maps, was actually pretty good, but from whom I have yet to see anything since). It, too, has a very respectable RT score (86% Fresh on 6/7) and User Rating (7.3/330). But is there an audience for this, which is only scheduled for 2,000 screens?

Perennial teenager Michael Cera (now 21) plays Nick Twisp, a sex-obsessed 16-year-old who meets Sheeni Saunders (newcomer Portia Doubleday) a smart, beautiful girl who, of course, only sees Nick as a “friend”. Desperate to win her affections, he cooks up a more devilish, more sinister alter-ego named Francois Dillinger (also Cera, but with blue eyes and a fake ‘stache), who possesses the self-confidence necessary for him to pull it off. Of course, handing the reins to Francois ends up having dire consequences, and soon Nick is a wanted fugitive. Oh, bollocks.

I’ve seen a fair amount of advertising for this film, which is good. It might have had a chance to beat out Leap Year, and could even pick up a Top 5 point or two if it can gross around $12 million (and that’s a big if), but I don't see it happening. It will run you $8 in the Ultimate leagues, which I think is just too steep a price. I doubt it will make more than $18 million, and you’re going to need that revenue later on in the season, I guarantee it. $5 in Box Office is more feasible, but with heavier hitters coming up starring Denzel Washington, Jackie Chan and Dwayne Johnson, can this little film be heard above the noise? I say no.

And now, a few words about the three limited-release films coming this week:

Crazy on the Outside ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – Hollywood veteran Tim Allen stars (and makes his directorial debut) with this film, a comedy where he plays Tommy Zelda, an ex-con who is forced to re-engage with his somewhat offbeat family following his parole from prison following a three-year stint.

This film has no shortage of star power: apart from Allen, the cast includes Sigourney Weaver, Jeanne Tripplehorn, J.K. Simmons, Ray Liotta and Kelsey Grammer. Normally, I would consider this to be a shoo-in as PTA champ given the new rule, but I don’t think that will be the case. Box Office Mojo has Crazy on the Outside bowing in 80 locations, which is rather too much to make a serious case for PTA points. Spend your $5 elsewhere.

Waiting For Armageddon ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a documentary that graphically outlines the beliefs of some 50 million Americans, who are convinced that the Bible’s prophecies regarding the end of the world are about to come true. Weaving together critical perspectives of Christianity, Zionism and Judaism, filmmakers Kate Davis and David Heilbroner seem to have created a film that shines a big light on a subject that few people (excepting Roland Emmerich) would care to discuss.

It is for this reason that I would not pick this film. Well, that and it’s current IMDb score (6.1 with only 12 votes). I am not sure how many theaters this film will be bowing in, so the odds are good that you may pick up a PTA point or two, and even if it it’s the odd film out, it won’t hurt you very much for only $3. And that’s the nicest thing I have to say about it.

Wonderful World ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – This is my PTA pick of the week. Not because I have a tremendous amount of confidence, but merely by process of elimination. Though it only has a medium-level User Rating (6.6/283), the trailer is rather engaging, and you should check it out if you haven’t yet. Distributed by Magnolia Films, Wonderful World tells the story of Ben Singer, a cynical former children’s singer who has become increasingly despondent. When his Senegalese roommate Ibu (Michael K. Williams) falls into a diabetic coma, it falls to Ibu’s sister Khadi (Sanaa Lathan) to try to bring Ben back to the world of the living, along with the help of Ben’s young daughter Sandra (Jodelle Ferland).

It may not have the appeal that The Visitor did, but it may be able to capture some of its more light-hearted and uplifting overtones. And if it can, this could be your ticket to cheap PTA points. Really, what else is there?


My predictions for the weekend of January 8-10, 2010:

1. Avatar - $32 million
2. Sherlock Holmes - $18 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel - $15 million
4. Daybreakers - $12 million
5. Leap Year - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only two films to talk about, and they are both action films, albeit very very different ones: The Book of Eli, starring Denzel Washington as the badass hero and Gary Oldman as the badass villain in a post-apocalyptic society; and The Spy Next Door, a kiddie action comedy starring Jackie Chan as an international spy who is asked to watch over his girlfriend’s three kids. What, Vin Diesel wasn’t available?

Later!

[Buscemi]

Opening weekend predictions:

Leap Year $10 million
Daybreakers $8 million
Youth In Revolt $4 million (over a year of delays hasn't been good for this one's chances)

[W]

I like the look of Youth in Revolt, but the average American, not so much. Plus the tv spots haven't really showed what the film is about...

[Buscemi]

I haven't liked the ad campaign of Youth In Revolt either. Not enough emphasis is put into the split personality elements. Also the poster is just a head shot of Michael Cera, nothing else.

[W]

Even if it did tell what the story was about, I doubt it'd get too big of an audience anyways. It is just not a mass media film.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

After all the great holds Avatar has had, why would it drop so hard now? I think it'll still get above $50M this weekend, which would be its biggest drop yet.

I'm thinking this January will be nowhere near as big as last years. I don't think Leap Year has $50M+ in it (which is what Bride Wars had), Daybreakers doesn't look as broadly appealing as My Bloody Valentine, Tooth Fairy might be a little like Paul Blart but over $100M? No way.

Only ones that should break out are Edge of Darkness and maybe Book of Eli.

[J.I.]

Well this January will rely a lot more on holdovers than last summer. Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Alvin 2 and Up in the Air should really be the main part of January. But I do see The Book of Eli, Tooth Fairy, and Edge of Darkness doing well.

[Buscemi]

My predictions for the other January titles:

The Book Of Eli: $17 million opening/$45 million total
The Spy Next Door: $18 million opening/$50 million total
Legion: $12 million opening/$30 million total
Tooth Fairy: $20 million opening/$55 million total
Extraordinary Measures: $7 million opening/$20 million total
Edge Of Darkness: $22 million opening/$60 million total
When In Rome: $9 million opening/$25 million total

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Taken made over $120M or something like that, but Edge of Darkness will only get $60? Why do you think that?

[Shrykespeare]

I just don't know. Avatar, Sherlock and the other December movies will continue to get lots of love, but the January films will get none at all? I find that hard to believe.

The American Box Office has made, what, $1B in the last three weeks combined? I think it will drop this week because everyone is going back to school and work. It's natural. And it almost always happens.

I think people are in love with going to the movies again. Even the debuts will benefit from that.

[Buscemi]

Edge Of Darkness is rated R and Mel Gibson hasn't appeared in a film since 2002. Meanwhile, Taken was PG-13 and Liam Neeson had been more visible at that point. Also, the anticipation isn't as high as Taken was (since Taken had the positive word-of-mouth coming from its international run and online bootlegs months before release).

[thswrestler160]

you know buscemi if your predictions are true Avatar might win every weekend until edge of darkness opens on the 29th which i could see happening but I'm betting book of eli just barely tops it when it opens.

[numbersix]

Taken and Edge are very different films, although the trailer for the latter doesn't want you to think that. If Edge is anyway like the BBC miniseries it was based on, the plot develops into something far beyond a Bourne-style Death Wish. But it may come off as preposterous so it may not get the reputation that Taken had. I also think that early illegal downloads actually helped Taken in spreading word of mouth.

[numbersix]

Oh and latest tracking figures for this weekend are:

Leap Year: 8-9mil
Daybreakers: 16mil
Youth in Revolt: 10mil

That's a surprise for Youth

[W]

From Paris With Love seems like more of a Taken than Edge of Darkness. That's only if it turns out to be good, though.