SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals


Top 10:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $141.1M
4 points - Skyfall, $41.1M
3 points - Lincoln, $21.0M
2 points - Wreck-It Ralph, $18.6M
1 point - Flight, $8.8M
Argo, $4.0M
Taken 2, $2.1M
(Jab Tak Hai Jaan), $1.3M
Pitch Perfect, $1.3M
Here Comes the Boom, $1.2M

PTA:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2, $34,660
4 points - Silver Linings Playbook, $27,668
3 points - Anna Karenina, $20,043
2 points - Lincoln, $11,859
1 point - Skyfall, $11,727

[Buscemi]

It's not often when you see a Bollywood film finish in the Top Ten.

In short, buy into the two January Bollywood titles in the game!

[Chienfantome]

me, thats why i got it in the full year

Stop bragging UDM

[Brockster]

Chien, since we dont have an update from Skryke yet on this week's movies...I'd like to get your thoughts on Rust and Bone...what do you think it's chances are here in the States? Do you think it will expand any?

Surfer and Six, feel free to throw in your thoughts too...I'd like to pick your brains...you know, the arthouse snobs of the bunch

[numbersix]

I think it'll perform well across the next three weeks, despite the competition. It may not earn top points each week but I think 7 across the 3 weekends should be achievable.

In terms of expansion, I could see it opening to a few hundred theatres max, but again competition in both mainstream and arthouse will be working against it. I think it'll make $5m max, but it'll probably be lower.

[Chienfantome]

Rust & Bone's chances of expansion are very, very thin. It won't expand higher than just a successful arthouse film in terms of box-office, so as Six says, around $5M is the best it can probably get. On the other hand I'm sure it will get its share of PTA points. I can see it getting more than 10. I'm pretty sure it will get 5 PTA points this weekend.

[silversurfer19]

I wouldn't be surprised if it won this weekend. I suspect Twilight, Anna Karenina and Guardians will perform in the 10,000 PTA range, while Silver Linings will probably drop to around 6-7000, so I guess it should have a very real chance of claiming top spot this weekend, while next weekend is wide open for doubling its score or at least claiming 4 points. Hyde Park will probably damage it's prospects in the following weekend before The Hobbit and the Christmas movies take over, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it go into the double digits. I'd say 11-12 PTA points, though like six said probably nothing more than $5m total BO.

[Buscemi]

Silver Linings Playbook was only tracking $1.5 million for the weekend at last report. That's a PTA below $4,000.