SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/2

[Buscemi]

Well, everyone was right. Wreck-It Ralph is looking a $48-50 million weekend.

I guess the rule of thumb is "if Geezer and his meathead friends want to see it, then it will make money". Also, it shows that Hollywood will never take another chance on an animated feature isn't a CGI comedy that can give you a seizure.

[W]

The rule of thumb here is "If people will pay to see a movie, it will make money."

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I read that theaters in NYC and New Jersey are performing the best with Wreck-It Ralph, since schools are closed and most parents' workplaces are without power. Makes sense to go to the movies if there's nothing else to do, helps my Full Year out.

With only one movie opening next week, if Ralph gets over $50M this weekend, it's pretty much a lock for $180M at least.

And, Hollywood continually takes chances on non-CGI animated movies, why would one more CGI success stop that now?

[Buscemi]

On your last one: Frankenweenie was Disney taking a chance on something different and it flopped. This movie is basically Disney copying the DreamWorks formula of pandering and product placement and it's making money. With Disney constantly finding new ways to reduce their studio slates (we saw how they dropped Henry Selick's new film a few months back, along with the fact Disney is no longer distributing Studio Ghibli titles), watch more of these low risk and thoughtless movies hitting theatres instead of encouraging audiences to broaden their horizons.

And W, Geezer and his friends seem to have an uncanny ability to predict the hits (despite the fact that they have the most one-sided tastes). It also shows how unoriginal and one-quadrant Hollywood is becoming. The sad thing is that other audiences are buying into it.

[empire13]

Well, everyone was right. Wreck-It Ralph is looking a $48-50 million weekend.

I guess the rule of thumb is "if Geezer and his meathead friends want to see it, then it will make money". Also, it shows that Hollywood will never take another chance on an animated feature isn't a CGI comedy that can give you a seizure.

Boosh, I spent the last couple of days reading these posts and resisting the urge to pile on, but your post sounds like a broken record. Instead of insulting others, why can't you just once, with grace and tact, man up and admit you were wrong. We're all wrong on this site as often as we are right, but we don't go around hurling disparaging remarks at each other just because someone doesn't agree with us. The "meathead" comment was uncalled for, not that Geezer needs me to stand up for him.

[Geezer]

All I need to say is that my record speaks for itself. Not everything I want to see makes money, and not everything that makes money is something that I want to see. I just have a pretty good grasp at judging public perception.

[Brockster]

I was totally wrong on Ralph...thought it would flop (I still don't get it's appeal, but whatever). I DID remove it from all of my BK slates though, thankfully I will have to say though, since I've been playing this game, the Oct-Dec leagues have always given me trouble, especially December...so I'm looking forward to seeing myself down at the bottom of the standings over the next few months...where did that bottle of Jack go...

In more positive news, I"m impressed w/ Flight, which is projecting to make 23M...that's pretty good considering the release platform. Also, looks like Taken might creep back into the top 5 again (in it's 5th week!) if it can hold back Hotel Transylvania (which probably lost a lot of it's business to WIR).

[transformers2]

Yeah I was definitely slightly off on Wreck-It Ralph. Given the reception it's getting, It should have great legs too.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report:


Ultimate FY (R9, R10 - 17 players; R1 MS - 28 players

Wreck-It Ralph - 8, 2, 9
Flight - 1, 1, 1
The Man With the Iron Fists - 0, 2, 1
This Must Be the Place - 2, 2, 5
A Late Quartet - 0, 0, 5
Jack and Diane - 0, 0, 1
High Ground - 0, 1, 5


Ultimate HY (R4, R5 - 20 players)

Wreck-It Ralph - 8, 2
Flight - 2, 1
The Man With the Iron Fists - 0, 1
This Must Be the Place - 1, 2
A Late Quartet - 1, 1
Jack and Diane - 1, 0
High Ground - 2, 2


Bankrupts, 4th Quarter (Ult - 14 players, BO - 16 players)

Flight - 1, 2
The Man With the Iron Fists - 2, 2


Box Office FY (R9, R10 - 21 players; R1 MS - 28 players)

Wreck-It Ralph - 6, 3, 5
Flight - 4, 2, 0
The Man With the Iron Fists - 0, 1, 1
This Must Be the Place - 0, 0, 0
A Late Quartet - 0, 1, 2
Jack and Diane - 0, 0, 0
High Ground - 2, 0, 0


Box Office HY (R4, R5 - 21 players)

Wreck-It Ralph - 7, 1
Flight - 3, 2
The Man With the Iron Fists - 0, 1
This Must Be the Place - 1, 0
A Late Quartet - 0, 1
Jack and Diane - 0, 0
High Ground - 1, 0

[W]

And W, Geezer and his friends seem to have an uncanny ability to predict the hits (despite the fact that they have the most one-sided tastes). It also shows how unoriginal and one-quadrant Hollywood is becoming. The sad thing is that other audiences are buying into it.

Let's bash me, Geezer, and the general public because we want to see a film that we liked the trailer for. Nevermind the fact that you haven't seen it and it's getting good reviews overall. You said it'd open to $25 M and you were WRONG. You said people wouldn't get the references and you were WRONG. You said it'd alienate half the audience and you were WRONG. You could just say you're wrong and get over it, but no. Every time something flops that you've made up your mind you and the general public will like we have to hear about why general audiences are idiots for the next six months... John Carter, Frankenweenie...

And Frankenweenie is original? Since when is a dark Tim Burton stop motion movie original? I saw it and it was ok. And talking about references in movies, a lot of them in Frankenweenie went unnoticed. I still contend that being in black and white and about a subject that depresses mostly everyone that's happened to nearly everyone (dead pets) is the reason it failed.

And I have bad taste because I can predict what the average person wants to watch? That's ridiculous. It's like saying a good stockbroker says, "Sorry, honey, we've got to eat pork bellies and drink Starbucks this week." I predicted Breaking Dawn II will beat what you estimated before (and it will) and I can't stand that franchise. I have movies from as far back as the 30's on my top 100. A Will Ferrell movie sits next to Cuckoo's Nest and an Italian film barely beat out The Hangover and all are in my top 10. One-sided taste my ass.

[transformers2]

And W, Geezer and his friends seem to have an uncanny ability to predict the hits (despite the fact that they have the most one-sided tastes). It also shows how unoriginal and one-quadrant Hollywood is becoming. The sad thing is that other audiences are buying into it.

Let's bash me, Geezer, and the general public because we want to see a film that we liked the trailer for. Nevermind the fact that you haven't seen it and it's getting good reviews overall. You said it'd open to $25 M and you were WRONG. You said people wouldn't get the references and you were WRONG. You said it'd alienate half the audience and you were WRONG. You could just say you're wrong and get over it, but no. Every time something flops that you've made up your mind you and the general public will like we have to hear about why general audiences are idiots for the next six months... John Carter, Frankenweenie...

And Frankenweenie is original? Since when is a dark Tim Burton stop motion movie original? I saw it and it was ok. And talking about references in movies, a lot of them in Frankenweenie went unnoticed. I still contend that being in black and white and about a subject that depresses mostly everyone that's happened to nearly everyone (dead pets) is the reason it failed.

And I have bad taste because I can predict what the average person wants to watch? That's ridiculous. It's like saying a good stockbroker says, "Sorry, honey, we've got to eat pork bellies and drink Starbucks this week." I predicted Breaking Dawn II will beat what you estimated before (and it will) and I can't stand that franchise. I have movies from as far back as the 30's on my top 100. A Will Ferrell movie sits next to Cuckoo's Nest and an Italian film barely beat out The Hangover and all are in my top 10. One-sided taste my ass.

I want to hug you right now W.

[Brockster]

I want to hug you right now W.

W, have you ever had a Tranny want to hug you?

[Shrykespeare]

Ahem.


Friday Estimates:

Wreck-It Ralph, $13.4M
Flight, $8.2M
The Man With the Iron Fists, $3.0M
Argo, $3.0M
Taken 2, $1.8M
Cloud Atlas, $1.5M
Paranormal Activity 4, $1.4M
Hotel Transylvania, $1.1M
Silent Hill: Revelation, $1.1M
Here Comes the Boom, $1.0M


Weekend Projections:

Wreck-It Ralph, $47M
Flight, $23.5M
Argo, $9.5M
The Man With the Iron Fists, $7,6M
Taken 2, $5.5M
Cloud Atlas, $4.8M
Hotel Transylvania, $4.2M
Paranormal Activity 4, $4.1M
Here Comes the Boom, $3.3M
Silent Hill: Revelation, $3.1M
Sinister, $2.7M


That would make the PTA's for Ralph and Flight nearly identical. Should be close. And as expect, Hotel Transylvania takes its biggest drop by a country mile.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Wreck-It Ralph, $49.1M
4 points - Flight, $25.0M
3 points - Argo, $10.2M
2 points - The Man With the Iron Fists, $8.2M
1 point - Taken 2, $6.0M
Cloud Atlas, $5.2M
Hotel Transylvania $4.5M
Paranormal Activity 4, $4.3M
Here Comes the Boom, $3.6M
Silent Hill: Revelation, $3.3M

PTA:
5 points - Flight
4 points - Wreck-It Ralph
3 points - A Late Quartet
2 points - The Sessions
1 point - The Man With the Iron Fists

For the November leagues, remove The Sessions, move up TMwtIF, and slide in This Must Be the Place. No word on High Ground or Jack and Diane.

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.