SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/2

[Shrykespeare]

Thanks to amazing reviews and equally amazing word-of-mouth, Ben Affleck’s latest drama Argo, after settling for the runner-up position in its first two weeks, suffered yet another minute drop to take first place in its third weekend, bringing in over $12M and running its total to over $60M overall. Hotel Transylvania continued to impress, jumping back up to third place in its fifth week with $9.5M, bringing its terrific total to over $130M. Cloud Atlas led the weak crop of debuts, bringing in $9.4M and finishing in second place. On the PTA front, The Sessions won for the second straight week, finishing just ahead of new indie debut The Loneliest Planet.

And lo, we are here. The winter season is now upon us. After two months of mostly filler (three, if you count the abysmal August we had), we can now look forward to not only a bevy of big-budget extravaganzas, but the best dramas Hollywood has to offer, all of which will be vying for gold statuettes come spring. Seven new films will bow starting this Friday, so let’s not waste any more ink. Off we go!

The first week of November always seems to herald a large-scale animated film, at least in recent years. Most have met with success, including Puss in Boots ($149M), Megamind ($148M), A Christmas Carol ($138M), Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa ($180M), Bee Movie ($126M), Chicken Little ($135M) and The Incredibles ($261M). This year, it’s Disney’s turn to showcase the winter season’s leadoff hitter, and they are doing so with Wreck-It Ralph (Buena Vista).

Director Rich Moore (Futurama, The Simpsons) will make his full-length feature film debut with this computer-animated story, which tells the story of Wreck-It Ralph (John C. Reilly), the “villain” in an arcade game called Fix-It Felix Jr. His job is basically to wreck buildings and cause mayhem, at least until Felix comes along and spoil his plans. However, after three decades of doing this – and being reviled for it – Ralph has tired of being the villain. Wanting to prove that he can be the hero as well as the villain, he “leaves” his own game and tries his hand at heroing in several other (very very different) games. Despite being in completely foreign territory, Ralph is determined to change his destiny.

The impressive supporting voice cast includes Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, Alan Tudyk, Dennis Haysbert, Edie McClurg and Ed O’Neill. You can also expect cameos from characters from many classic video games, including Q-Bert, Super Mario Bros., Street Fighter and Sonic the Hedgehog, just to name a few.

I’m getting a good vibe from this film, and I’m not sure why. It seems to be targeting teens (and will be showing in over 3,600 theaters), who make up the majority of the video-game-playing population, and though I’m not the gamer I once was, I am excited to see it. Hotel Transylvania proved that animated films, when expertly placed, can kill, and when Halloween passes, it’ll be time for something to take its place, and Wreck-It Ralph is placed perfectly, especially when you consider that there are only three new films coming in the next two weeks.

Wreck-It Ralph will run you $27 in the November Ultimate leagues ($29 in Box Office). For that price, I think you will get an OW in the $53M range, eleven Top 5, three or four PTA, a Rating around 7.4 and $145M. It should hold very well in the next few weeks, though it may take a tumble when Rise of the Guardians comes out. It’s a solid pick, to be sure, though there are undoubtedly better ones later on in the season.




Up next is Flight (Paramount), the latest film from director Robert Zemeckis, who helmed such classics as Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Forrest Gump and the Back to the Future trilogy. After spending most of the last decade doing stop-motion animated films (The Polar Express, Beowulf, A Christmas Carol), he’s back to using live actors, and the cast for this film is led by veteran Hollywood stalwart Denzel Washington.

Washington plays Whip Whitaker, an airline pilot who gains national acclaim by saving a plane full of passengers by performing an unheard-of maneuver that kept the plane from exploding upon crashing. However, the ensuing national acclaim brings with it an immense amount of scrutiny, and an investigation reveals that Whitaker had alcohol in his system during the fateful flight. So, despite his miraculous feat of aviation, pressures start to build on Whip and his family, including a possible prison sentence. John Goodman, Don Cheadle, Bruce Greenwood, Melissa Leo and Kelly Reilly co-star.

Early reviews for Flight have been positive, and the combination of Zemeckis and Washington is a potent one. What I can’t quite fathom is why the hell this film is being given such a small release platform, upwards of only 1,800 locations. Given how heavily its been advertised, I would have expected a number (easily) 1,000 higher. Perhaps it will expand wider in its second or third weeks, but I have no word on that at this time.

Even so, 1,800 theaters is enough to have a respectable OW (as Tyler Perry can attest), so I’ll forecast the following numbers: a $21M OW, nine Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating around 7.5 and $71M. Those are decent numbers considering its price tag ($18 Ultimate, $19 Box Office), but I think you can do better than taking Flight (heh).




The last of the wide-release films this week is The Man With the Iron Fists (Universal), a martial arts film listed as “presented by” Quentin Tarantino, even though he apparently had nothing to do with the making of the film itself. The brain trust behind the film were some of QT’s closest friends, including music producer Robert “RZA” Diggs, who helped QT score Kill Bill a few years ago, and Eli Roth, who both co-produced and co-wrote the script. RZA is not only directing and scoring Iron Fists, he’s also starring. It will be given a release platform similar to that of Flight.

Taking place in 19th-century China, a man known as The Blacksmith (RZA) is forced to create elaborate weapons for a small village, but is forced to join the cadre of warriors and assassins to protect his community when a traitor threatens to destroy all. Some of the more familiar faces in the supporting cast include Russell Crowe, Lucy Liu, Jamie Chung, Pam Grier and Gordon Liu.

Three years ago, Ninja Assassin underwhelmed in a November release, but that film didn’t have QT’s fingerprints on it, nor did it have such a recognizable cast. And if there’s one thing QT is good for, it’s the occasional rollicking guilty-pleasure action film, full of violence, gore and sex. However, I think that QT’s next directorial outing, next month’s Django Unchained, will likely get the lion’s share of the attention. This film is priced at $8 in both November leagues, and for that, I think you will only get three or four Top 5 points, probably no PTA, a decent rating in the mid-7’s and a $10M OW on its way to about $28M. Definitely not enough to warrant inclusion on your slates.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s crop of limited-release films:

This Must Be the Place (Weinstein Co.) ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This 2011 drama from Italian director Paolo Sorrentino stars Sean Penn in a rather unusual role for him: Penn plays Cheyenne, a 50-year-old former Goth rock star, who is bored and living off his royalties in Dublin. Returning to the U.S. upon the death of his estranged father, Cheyenne soon learns of a series of terrible humiliations his father was subjected to while being held prisoner in the Nazi death camp Auschwitz. Learning that the man responsible for those humiliations is now living in the U.S., Cheyenne vows to track him down. Frances McDormand, Judd Hirsch and Harry Dean Stanton co-star, as well as Talking Heads lead singer David Byrne, singing the song that the title of the movie was named after.

This Must Be the Place looks just quirky enough to be a PTA winner, and the fact that it will only be playing in two theaters underlies that point. It’s a very crowded weekend for PTA-grabbers, to be sure, so it could get anywhere from zero to five points. Personally, I think it will get three, along with a Rating that is pretty much set in stone.




A Late Quartet (Entertainment One) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – I can’t tell you much about this film beyond its brief description and what I gleaned from the trailer. The film centers on four members of a world-famous string quartet who, after years of playing together, start to unravel after their leader Peter (Christopher Walken) is diagnosed with a terminal illness, which leaves the other three members (Catherine Keener, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Mark Ivanir) scrambling to figure out what they’re going to do next. And during the turmoil, long-dormant egos and character flaws emerge, threatening to blow apart their friendships.

I would love to recommend this film, but I can’t without knowing just how many theaters will be showing it. It’s a stellar cast, perhaps even Oscar-worthy, and I’m sure the longhaired culture lovers will be there to see it. But without that vital piece of information, all this film is is a real gamble.




Jack and Diane (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Wow, two films in one week named after classic songs. Now, I don’t know if this film will reference the John Cougar song in any way, but it doesn’t look like there is any similarity between the song and this movie beyond the title. Jack (Riley Keough) and Diane (Juno Temple) are two teenage girls that fell madly in love with each other over a summer. However, when Diane reveals that she may have to move away, “Diane’s emotions begin to cause unexplainable violent changes to her body”, whatever that means.

Beyond what looks like repeated scenes of hot lesbian sex in this movie, I’m not sure what there is to distinguish it. The trailer makes it look alternatively cheesy, creepy and downright bizarre. I’m not sure what kind of story that director Bradley Rust Gray (Salt) is trying to tell. Considering that it will be playing in exactly one theater, Jack and Diane is another gamble. Now, in the hunt for PTA points, there are good gambles and bad ones, and I would categorize this as the latter.




High Ground (Red Flag Releasing) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This documentary from Emmy Award-winning director Michael Brown tells the story of eleven combat veterans who returned from tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan emotionally ravaged. They decide to deal with their delicate emotional state by banding together to perform a rather incredible feat: climbing one of the tallest peaks in the Himalayas, led by blind mountaineer Erik Weihenmayer, the first blind man to climb to the peak of Mount Everest. Wow. Well, they’re certainly not short on courage, and I’m sure it must have been a truly cathartic experience.

One thing’s for sure: the shots of the panoramic mountainous views are bound to be spectacular. I don’t know if I would choose High Groundfor my slates, but a film like this could very well turn into a surprise source of PTA. It’s got a great theater count (four) and an uplifting premise, so I certainly couldn’t fault you for taking it. Don’t worry about the Rating, I’m sure it will improve.




My predictions for the weekend of November 2-4, 2012:

1. Wreck-It Ralph - $53 million
2. Flight - $21 million
3. The Man with the Iron Fists - $10 million
4. Argo - $9 million
5. Hotel Transylvania - $6 million

PTA race (Sept, Oct leagues): A Late Quartet, Wreck-It Ralph, This Must Be the Place, The Sessions, Flight

PTA race (Nov leagues): A Late Quartet, Wreck-It Ralph, This Must Be the Place, Flight, High Ground

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Flight – 88% (21/24 positive), 7.6 (771 votes)
The Man with the Iron Fists – N/A, 7.8 (556 votes)
This Must Be the Place – 73% (32/44 positive), 6.7 (10,102 votes)
A Late Quartet – 86% (6/7 positive), 5.4 (124 votes)
Jack and Diane – N/A, 4.8 (156 votes)
High Ground – N/A, 4.2 (25 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, Daniel Craig returns for his third go-round as superspy James Bond in Skyfall. Also on tap: Stephen Spielberg’s big-budget biopic of one of the most famous historical figures ever, Lincoln, as well as limited-releases A Royal Affair and Coming Up Roses.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Gabrielle Union (Good Deeds, Think Like a Man) turns 40 on 10/29
David Ogden Stiers (M*A*S*H) turns 70 on 10/31
Marcia Wallace (The Bob Newhart Show, The Simpsons) turns 70 on 11/1
Anthony Kiedis (Red Hot Chili Peppers lead singer) turns 50 on 11/1
Toni Collette (The Sixth Sense, Little Miss Sunshine) turns 40 on 11/1
Jenny McCarthy (Scary Movie 3) turns 40 on 11/1
Annie Potts (Ghostbusters, Designing Women) turns 60 on 11/3
Jeff Probst (Survivor host) turns 50 on 11/4

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Wreck-It Ralph $25 million
2. Flight $20 million
3. Argo $7 million
4. The Man With The Iron Fists $6 million
5. Hotel Transylvania $5 million
6. Cloud Atlas $4.5 million
7. Taken 2 $4 million
8. Paranormal Activity 4 $3 million
9. Silent Hill: Revelation $3 million
10. Here Comes The Boom $3 million
-- Alex Cross $2.5 million
-- Sinister $2 million
-- Fun Size $1.5 million
-- Chasing Mavericks $1 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

1. Wreck-It Ralph - $49M
2. Flight - $18M
3. The Man With The Iron Fists - $9M
4. Argo - $8M
5. Cloud Atlas - $6M

Typically, I think Wreck It Ralph would only open to the high 30s/low 40s, but there's got to be a bump due to nothing but Hotel Transylvania being available for families (Frankenweenie isn't even in theaters anymore around me). And unless Rise of The Guardions starts to ramp up their marketing, I don't see it cutting too much in WIR's legs.

I want to say Iron Fists would open above 10M, especially because it's been a looong time since there was a fun, dumb, action movie in the marketplace (maybe Seven Psychopaths, but that's a stretch for action...). But it's still a limited audience.

[Buscemi]

Unlike Hotel Transylvania, there doesn't seem to be a very wide appeal for Wreck-It Ralph. We saw how ParaNorman struggled to hit $50 million with only teen boys to rely on. How can a film that doesn't seem to know if it's for children or people who lived the 1980's open to $50 million? I fail to see it.

Also, I noticed that unlike some other Disney animated films that this film seems to have no female appeal. While Brave, The Princess and the Frog, Tangled and even Bolt had major female characters, it seems like the two main female characters here take a back seat to Reilly and McBrayer's characters. Is it no surprise that Disney is playing it safe with their next non-Pixar animated project (an adaptation of The Snow Queen) and making something with far wider appeal?

[numbersix]

1. Wreck-It Ralph - $40M
2. Flight - $18M
3. The Man With The Iron Fists - $8M
4. Argo - $8M
5. Hotel Transylvia - $6M

Ralph should easily win. It kinda doesn't matter if kids don't get all the references, I'm sure they will still be able to enjoy something out of an animated film, especially on a date like this. The PAranorman comparison doesn't fit as it was stop motion and released in a weak time of the year.

As for PTA, I'm going to say A Late Quartet will win unless it's opening in more than 20 theatres. Then it's between Ralph and TMBTP for the next spot, while Flight, and the other two releases battle it out for next spot. Actually, that's exactly what you predicted, Shryke!

[englishozzy]

1. Wreck-It-Ralph - $45 million
2. Flight - $16 million
3. Argo - $9 million
4. The Man with the Iron Fists - $8 million
4. Hotel Transylvania - $7 million

[transformers2]

1.Wreck-It Ralph $37 Mil
2.Flight $18 Mil
3.The Man with the Iron Fists $10 Mil
4.Argo $8 Mil
5.Hotel Transylvania $6 Mil

[Wrestler]

Boosh how many times are you going to drastically under predict a movie just because you personally are not the only demographic that a movie appeals to? Ralph is appealing to anyone that has ever played a game in their life and enjoyed it. Ages 5-85 male or female this movie has something for them. And parents with kids less than 5 will still bring their kids to it because they want to see it. Even if the kid isn't old enough to get even one of the references they will still like it just like any other good kids movie.

The only way it doesn't open big would be because the second largest market in the nation and many of the surrounding areas are still under water. Even that shouldn't hurt it's legs much and it will still finish with 150-160 no problem.

1.Wreck it Ralph 49
2.Flight 21
3.Man with Iron Fist 8
4.Argo 7
5.Cloud/hotel 6

[Buscemi]

Look, I don't see it that way. The crowd at this site is mostly young males so of course you people want to see it do well and go above the tracking. But who else does it appeal to? No one. It's simply a CGI ParaNorman and at best will only double those numbers.

And please Wrestler, learn to use your shift and comma keys. I feel like I'm reading a 12 year-old.

[numbersix]

I'm pretty sure there's plenty of us who don't want to see it. It's not about personal bias (you've pretty much cornered that one), it's about the market, trends, and tracking.

And just because it has references to slightly obscure video games characters that doesn't mean it'll only appeal to 30-something men. That's because you probably don't have to get the references to get the film. As I previously mentioned, Bee Movie had some pretty obscure references but it still managed to open well the first weekend of November.

Speaking of which, tracking is:

Wreck-It: RS low 30s MTC 40m
Flight: RS high teens MTC 18m
Iron Fist: RS mid single digits MTC 9m

[Buscemi]

You remember how people complained about the references to Hunter S. Thompson and Chinatown in Rango? This is going to much worse than that. Most of Disney's audience isn't going to know who the hell characters like Q*Bert or Zangief are. It's as if Disney was trying to go for one audience but somewhat alienated the other in the process. It killed two birds with one stone and not in a good way.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

But if a Western starring a lizard can make $120m in March, surely a Disney-ified ode to video games with a much better release date can match that, if not do better?

[Buscemi]

But Rango had a big star in its lead. Wreck-It Ralph does not.

Also, I expressed into another thread that the problems with Wreck-It Ralph will be the problems with Rango but tenfold (or maybe fivefold).

[Geezer]

Boosh, its going to be so much fun when you are proven SO wrong on this one. Wreck-It Ralph will beat Hotel Transylvania's opening weekend AND its total gross.

[Buscemi]

And one more thing: only three films have ever grossed $50 million opening weekend in the first week of November. Two of them (Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles) had a major brand and the third (Madagascar 2) was a sequel. Wreck-It Ralph has neither.