SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/26

[Shrykespeare]

With the exception of Sinister, all of the holdovers from the past few weeks held magnificently. However, as expected, Paranormal Activity 4 easily took first place with an underwhelming $30M, ahead of Argo ($16.6M, down only 14%), Hotel Transylvania ($13.5M, down 22%) and Taken 2 ($13.4M, down 38%). On the PTA front, The Sessions powered to a PTA of over $30K per theater, well ahead of Brooklyn Castle, which took second place.

This weekend may be the toughest to pick of any between now and New Year’s. Because after this, the winter season will officially begin, and will showcase huge blockbuster films almost every week. This week, however, you have four new films with rather limited potential, which will be jockeying with the top four holdovers, including PA4 which will likely drop hard in its second week.

The most expensive of the four new wide-release films opening on Friday, ironically, is the one that it was just revealed will be given the smallest release platform of the bunch. The one I’m talking about is Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros.), the latest directorial outing from the Wachowskis, Andy and Lana (the Matrix trilogy), who share the big chair with Tom Tykwer (Run Lola Run, The International). It is due to be release into just under 2,000 theaters starting Friday.

Based on the novel of the same name by David Mitchell, Cloud Atlas is “an epic story of humankind in which the actions and consequences of our lives impact one another throughout the past, present and future, as one soul is shaped from a murderer into a savior and a single act of kindness ripples out for centuries to inspire a revolution.” Honestly, that’s about as in-depth as I’m going to go, because I’ve not been able to discern what the story is about at all from the trailers. What I do know is that there is an outstanding cast, which includes Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Jim Broadbent, Hugo Weaving, Hugh Grant, Susan Sarandon, Jim Sturgess and Ben Whishaw.

One thing’s for sure: the directing team is painting in broad strokes with this film. Clocking in at a robust 2:45 in length, I can only hope that by the time audiences leave the theater, they will be marveling at the story’s genius and the mind-blowing effects rather than scratching their heads and making WTF faces. Time will tell. I can tell you that the film has been very well reviewed so far, and the User Rating certainly won’t harm you in the slightest.

Unfortunately, I and the rest of the pricing panel anticipated a wider-release, so we priced it at $14 in both of the October leagues. Given the low theater count as well as the fact that the film’s prodigious length will reduce showings even further, I think a $13M OW is the best we can hope for. That might be enough to grab the top spot depending on how huge a tumble Paranormal Activity 4 takes, but for that price tag, I think you will get only seven or eight Top 5 points, maybe a couple of PTA and $44 million. I just can’t give it my recommendation.




By a staggering twist of fate, the film the film that is being given the widest release platform (2,800-3,000 theaters) was given the lowest price by the panel, at least in Ultimate. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Open Road Films) is the second film to be based on the popular series of video games (this one is based on Silent Hill 3), and it comes six years after the original. In April 2006, Silent Hill opened to $20M on its way to $47M. Why it took so long to get a sequel greenlit, I have no idea.

Michael J. Bassett (Solomon Kane) is behind the camera for this sequel, which sees the return of Radha Mitchell and Sean Bean as two of the principal characters. When Christopher disappears, his daughter Heather (Adelaide Clemens), having just reached her eighteenth birthday, begins to discover that there are forces at work in her life that she is only now just beginning to understand. The search for her father leads her to an alternate dimension and the town of Silent Hill, in which she finds a cult led by Claudia Wolf (Carrie-Anne Moss) and her crazy father Leonard (Malcolm McDowell). Heather must find a way to save her father and herself or be trapped in this hellish domain forever.

Six years is a long time between films, especially horror. It is, however, Halloween next week, and with only this and Paranormal Activity 4 to choose from, audiences may indeed give this a look. I will venture an OW of $12M, on its way to two Top 5 points and $26M. Even though the film is moderately priced at $7/$10, I would give this title a definite miss.




Gerard Butler (300) will be appearing in not one but two sports films between now and the end of the year. The second, a baseball drama, will be Playing the Field, which is due out in early December, and the first is Chasing Mavericks (Fox), which will be bowing in about 2,000 theaters starting Friday. Director Michael Apted (The World Is Not Enough) teams up with Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential) for this outing, which also includes Elisabeth Shue, Abigail Spencer and newcomer Jonny Weston in the cast.

The story is based on the life of Jay Moriarty (Weston), a young surfer from California who tragically died in a diving accident in 2001 at the age of 22. The film chronicles his quest to surf America’s most dangerous waves (called “mavericks”), as well as the local surfing legend, Frosty Wesson (Butler) who takes him under his wing in order to train him to survive it, and the friendship that builds between the two.

Even though Soul Surfer, also based on a true story, turned out respectable numbers last spring, Chasing Mavericks is very poorly placed, and I have seen very little advertising for it. I would be surprised if it even gleaned one Top 5 point or PTA point, which makes it a perfect Bankrupts pick. It certainly isn’t worth either of its price tags ($9 Ultimate, $8 Box Office).




Last up is Fun Size (Paramount), a teen comedy that is the directorial debut for Josh Schwartz, who has made his living producing numerous TV shows including Chuck, Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie. It seems to be a typical wacky party movie, where most of the action takes place over one evening, and nothing goes as planned.

Case in point: Wren (Victoria Justice) is invited to a Halloween party by her crush, Aaron (Thomas McDonell), but her mother (Chelsea Handler) asks her instead to take her little brother Albert out trick-or-treating. First, Wren defies her mom by going to the party, and then she loses Albert. Whoops. Shenanigans then ensue as she desperately tries to find him before Mom finds out. Johnny Knoxville, Ana Gasteyer and Thomas Mann also co-star.

Again, it’s tough to gauge the possible success of Fun Size, as I’m sure it’s gotten most of its advertising in places where I won’t see it. However, it is rated PG-13, unlike this past March’s Project X, which pulled in over $54M despite an R rating. This film could conceivably make anywhere from $15M to $40M depending on its reception. It’s a true wild card. I’ll predict $8M/$25M, with no points in Top 5 or PTA. For $8 (in both leagues), I wouldn’t take the risk.




Apparently, Starlet relocated to November 9th, which means that this weekend’s only limited-release film is The Loneliest Planet (IFC), a thriller from 2011 that stars Gael Garcia Bernal (Y tu mama tambien) and Hani Furstenburg as Alex and Nica, a young couple that are in love and engaged to be married. During a guided backpacking hike through the Caucasus Mountains in the country of Georgia, something dramatic (and completely unknown, as the synopsis gives no details) happens between them, and their relationship may never be the same after that. Wow, talk about vague...

The Loneliest Planet will be debuting in a very tantalizing number of theaters: two. It’s gotten positive reviews thus far, and even though the current User Rating doesn’t look that favorable, given the current docket, this may be worth gambling $2 on. It could conceivably get as many as four or five PTA points, and that would be a very rewarding result.




My predictions for the weekend of October 26-28, 2012:

1. Paranormal Activity 4 – $14 million
2. Cloud Atlas - $13 million
3. Argo - $13 million
4. Silent Hill: Revelation - $12 million
5. Hotel Transylvania - $10 million

PTA race (all leagues): The Sessions, The Loneliest Planet, Cloud Atlas, Brooklyn Castle, Silent Hill: Revelation

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Cloud Atlas – 80% (24/30 positive), 8.4 (2,300 votes)
The Loneliest Planet – 86% (6/7 positive), 5.5 (291 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we usher in the beginning of the winter season with a septet of new films, including: Wreck-It Ralph, an animated film from Disney; Flight, a drama starring Denzel Washington; The Man With the Iron Fists, a balls-out kung fu actioner from the mind of QT; as well as limited release films This Must Be the Place, A Late Quartet, Jack and Diane and High Ground.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Annette Funicello (Babes in Toyland, Beach Blanket Bingo) turns 70 on 10/22
Jeff Goldblum (Independence Day, The Fly) turns 60 on 10/22
Saffron Burrows (Troy, Deep Blue Sea) turns 40 on 10/22
Sofia Vassilieva (Medium, My Sister’s Keeper) turns 20 on 10/22
Bob Hoskins (Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Brazil) turns 70 on 10/26
Cary Elwes (The Princess Bride) turns 50 on 10/26
Roberto Begnini (Life is Beautiful) turns 60 on 10/27
Daphne Zuniga (Melrose Place, Spaceballs) turns 50 on 10/28

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Argo $12 million
2. Paranormal Activity 4 $11 million
3. Silent Hill: Revelation $10 million
4. Cloud Atlas $9 million
5. Hotel Transylvania $8 million
6. Taken 2 $7 million
7. Alex Cross $7 million
8. Chasing Mavericks $6 million
9. Sinister $5 million
10. Fun Size $5 million

[Chienfantome]

I think it would be quite awesome to see Argo take the lead in its 3rd weekend. If the new films really disappoint, and PA4 stumbles hard, there's a chance after all. Silent Hill 3D, I already hated the first one, and it was directed by Brotherhood of the wolves' Christophe Gans, so I think I will let this sequel pass by me...
Oh yes, and don't forget to go see "Chasing Mavericks" this weekend, my american friends, it's a fantastic film

[Buscemi]

Paranormal Activity 4 had the fourth biggest Friday share of an opening weekend ever and its Cinemascore was a low C. A drop over 60% should be expected.

[numbersix]

1. Paranormal Activity 4 – $12 million
2. Argo - $11.5 million
3. Cloud Atlas - $10 million
4. Silent Hill: Revelation - $9 million
5. Hotel Transylvania - $9 million

Fun Size could surprise, it's hard to say at this stage.

As for PTA, The Sessions should top, followed by Loneliest Planet, and then a scrap between Brooklyn Castle and one of the wide releases.

[Buscemi]

The problem with Fun Size is that it doesn't seem to know what audience it is for. Nickelodeon produced it and made it as a vehicle for Victoria Justice (who starred on the show Victorious, which was one of their top rated shows before its cancellation), which tells you it's going for children. On the other side, the film is rated PG-13 and has a lot of sexual humor which aims it squarely towards the older teens/college student crowd. As a result, the film seems to be alienating both target audiences as it will be too raunchy for kids and too kiddy for adolescents and adults.

Also, I've seen almost no marketing for it.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Gee, Shryke, I hope you didn't spoil the end of Chasing Mavericks. I was really looking forward to it!!!

[Buscemi]

The end of Chasing Mavericks: Gerard Butler reveals that his Scottish accent isn't real. ; )

[transformers2]

1.Argo $12 Mil
2.Paranormal Activity 4 $12 Mil
3.Silent Hill: Revelation $11 Mil
4.Cloud Atlas $9 Mil
5.Hotel Transylvania $8 Mil

[Geezer]

It's the closest weekend to Halloween... I think that alone will be enough to let PA hold on to win the weekend.

[numbersix]

Tracking

Silent Hill: RS low teens MTC 15m
Cloud Atlas: RS high single digits MTC $13m
Fun Size: RS "almost teens" MTC 7m
Chasing Mavericks: RS mid single digits MTC 5m

So both have Silent Hill winning the weekend. Interesting.

[Shonenbat]

I just can't see Cloud Atlas bombing so hard. It's this huge romantic epic, with beautiful CGI, big stars etc
It's impossible to believe it's just going to appeal to nobody.

1.Cloud Atlas $17 Mil
2.Silent Hill: Revelation $14
3.Argo $12.5 Mil
4.Paranormal Activity 4 $10.5 Mil
5.Hotel Transylvania $8 Mil

[Buscemi]

But it's also a 2 hour and 45 minute anthology film. Anthologies haven't sold since the early 1990's and the length limits its showings.

[Brockster]

and the length limits its showings

that's what she said

[englishozzy]

1. Argo - $14 million
2. Paranormal Activity 4 - $12 million
3. Cloud Atlas - $10 million
4. Silent Hill: Revelation - $9 million
5. Hotel Translyvania - $8 million