SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/28/12

[Buscemi]

Except the first film had mountains of buzz and was well-marketed. The second film has almost no buzz and the marketing has been weak (if Fox cared about it, the trailers would have been out far before late July and premiered with something other than The Watch).

[Buscemi]

the target audience (white teen boys).

huh?

They are films that don't require you to think and fill their run times with action, destruction and peril. Hence, perfect white teen boy cinema.

[Brockster]

I thought the target audience would be 20-40 year old males

[Buscemi]

I thought the target audience would be 20-40 year old males

They're Luc Besson productions. The guy almost always goes for the teens.

[transformers2]

I think there is pretty much no chance Taken 2 has a sub-20 million opening. I don't exactly know how well it will do, but considering the good marketing and the excellent reception of the original, I'm expecting good things.

[Geezer]

Most people who loved the first will see this. You know why? I like to call it the "Hangover 2 Principle." It doesn't matter if all you do is remake your original, if people loved it, they will show up for a sequel. All they have to do is show Liam Neeson being a badass and the target audience will show up in droves.

[empire13]

I'm not the target audience and I'm going to show up. The first one was smart, slick and unflinching in ways most other actioners are not. If the second one can take a relatively simple, and yes I'll use your term "derivative" premise and turn it into something you can't take your eyes off of like the first one did, it will do quite well. I'm certainly on board and I'm an old curmudgeon. And, old people love Liam Neeson. So wait... maybe I AM the target audience.

Also, I agree with Geezer's assessment entirely.

[numbersix]

Most people who loved the first will see this. You know why? I like to call it the "Hangover 2 Principle." It doesn't matter if all you do is remake your original, if people loved it, they will show up for a sequel. All they have to do is show Liam Neeson being a badass and the target audience will show up in droves.

Back in the day we used to call it the Police Academy Principle

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Hotel Transylvania, $11.0M
Looper, $6.9M
End of Watch, $2.4M
House at the End of the Street, $2.3M
Trouble with the Curve, $2.3M
Pitch Perfect, $1.7M
Finding Nemo, $1.0M
Won't Back Down, $921K
Resident Evil: Retribution, $810K
The Master, $787K
Dredd, $676K


That's a PTA of over $11K for Hotel Transylvania.... WTF?! (And the PTA for Pitch Perfect is over $14K)



Weekend Projections:

Hotel Transylvania, $39M (holy SHIT!)
Looper, $20.5M
End of Watch, $7.8M
Trouble with the Curve, $7.5M
House at the End of the Street, $7.1M
Pitch Perfect, $4.9M
Finding Nemo, $3.8M
Resident Evil: Retribution, $2.8M
Won't Back Down, $2.7M
The Master, $2.6M
Dredd, $2.2M

[transformers2]

God damn was not expecting those type of numbers for Hotel Transylvania! At least after blowing it so hard on Hotel Transylvania, at least I was right on the mark with Looper.

[Shonenbat]

Kids were hungry for an original cg animated film, didn't matter how shitty it looked. I never thought it was going to make less then 30 million.
Perks holds up with a great average despite the 100 theaters expansion! Should get 3 or 4 pta points this weekend.
Looks like the Master run out of steam. So disappointing.

[silversurfer19]

Was not expecting numbers that big, but thought $30m was certainly within reach, it's been the most advertised animated movie I've seen this year, with ads going back about 5 months. Awareness must have been very high. Glad I had it on quite a lot of slates, I hesitated earlier in the week because of Shryke's column and tracking, but threw it back on most slates before the deadline.

[Buscemi]

I saw it at a matinee at a rarely-attended theatre (though IMAX titles do well there) and there had to be about 100-150 people there in the 450 seat auditorium.

I still think Frankenweenie can outdo it though. Disney's been pushing it like crazy and it seems to appeal to the four quadrants.

[transformers2]

I will be speechless if Frankenweenie opens to $40 million next weekend. I think the light nature of Hotel Transylvania all but guarantees it will substantially outgross Frankenweenie which blatantly has a much darker story.

[Shrykespeare]

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