SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/21

[Shrykespeare]

Well, after the dismal outings of the previous two weeks, a box office rebound was inevitable. Resident Evil: Retribution posted solid if not spectacular numbers, earning over $21 million, a few steps ahead of the 3D re-release of Finding Nemo, which pulled in $17.5 million of its own. On the PTA front, Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master posted herculean numbers, grabbing $730,000 in only five theaters for an awe-inspiring PTA of $146,000. The weekend’s other notable limited release, Josh Radnor’s Liberal Arts, finished in second in that category.

With seven films on the docket this weekend, I won’t waste time with idle chitchat this week. A whopping four of those films are coming in wide release. The one getting the widest release, and more than likely the one with the most hit potential, is Trouble With the Curve (Warner Bros.), starring none other than Hollywood icon Clint Eastwood. This marks the first appearance in front of the camera by Eastwood since 2008’s Gran Torino… and I seem to remember Clint saying in an interview at the time that that would be his last role as an actor.

However, it would seem that his long-time friend Robert Lorenz, who worked with Clint on at least seven films as an assistant director, talked the 82-year-old veteran out of thespianic retirement. In fact, Trouble With the Curve marks the first time in nearly two decades that Eastwood will appear in a movie that he himself did not direct. (The last time was 1993, when he starred in Wolfgang Petersen’s gripping thriller In the Line of Fire.) This is actually the first time Lorenz will have the big chair all to himself, and he’s got an amazing cast supporting his efforts.

Eastwood plays Gus Lobel, an aging, ailing baseball scout for the Atlanta Braves, is given one last shot to prove his worth to the organization by his friend Pete Klein (John Goodman) before he’s put out to pasture for good. Gus is also asked, against his wishes, to bring his daughter Mickey (Amy Adams) with him, to make sure he’s okay, and the two must find ways to reconnect while Gus is scouting a hot new prospect in North Carolina. Gus also reconnects with Johnny (Justin Timberlake), a former-player-now-scout that owes Gus his big break, but who then also develops an interest in Mickey. Bob Gunton, Matthew Lillard, and Clint’s son Scott are also in the supporting cast.

Trouble With the Curve, much like Moneyball last year, is expertly placed, with baseball’s regular season winding down and the playoffs starting in a few weeks. And while it’s true that the last four films where Eastwood has been involved as a director only (Changeling, Invictus, Hereafter, J. Edgar) have all petered out short of $40 milion, his last two acting jobs have done just fine: Million Dollar Baby earned $100M, and Gran Torino earned $148M. I theorize that after nearly six decades of acting, moviegoers can never be quite sure which Eastwood role will be his last, and will therefore flock to it!

On this exact weekend last year, Moneyball debuted with $19M (losing to the Lion King re-release by a nose), and it ended up finishing with ten Top 5 points, seven PTA and $77 million. By a strange coincidence, Trouble With the Curve is priced nearly equally, at $10 (in both leagues). I think a similar OW is in store, but this time, it should be enough to win the weekend. Say, $20M on its way to ten Top 5 points, four PTA, a very good Rating in the mid-7’s and $63 million. Maybe not blockbuster status, but still very respectable, and a good pick.




The film with the next highest release is End of Watch (Open Road Films), whose release platform will be in the high 2000’s starting Friday. This is the first movie for director David Ayer since 2008’s Street Kings, and it, too, is a gritty street-cop drama (which he also wrote and co-produced), shot primarily on hand-held cameras for effect. This seems to be right in his comfort zone, having worked on previous cop dramas Training Day, Dark Blue and S.W.A.T.

The film stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Pena as LAPD officers Taylor and Zavala, everyday joes with families that do their duty in the City of Angels, protecting and serving. However, one day, during the course of their duties, they stumble into the machinations of the country’s most dangerous drug cartel, and before long, they find themselves targets of same. Anna Kendrick, America Ferrera and Natalie Martinez co-star.

Films like this usually have a ceiling: Street Kings made $26M in 2008, and Brooklyn’s Finest made $27M in 2010. End of Watch, believe it or not, has gotten outstanding reviews thus far (13/14 positive at RT), which may or may not increase its value. It’s also been fairly well-advertised, and it’s also reasonably priced ($9 in both leagues). However, I just can’t see this film doing much more than $40M, and that makes it not worth it. I think it will earn three Top 5, maybe one or two PTA, a Rating of about 7.1 and an output of $12M/$34M. Not enough to warrant taking it.




Next up is House at the End of the Street (Relativity), and, like most films with the word “House” in the title, it is a horror-thriller. It stars Jennifer Lawrence, who became a household name earlier this year with her role in the megahit The Hunger Games (even though it was actually shot prior to that film), along with Elisabeth Shue (Leaving Las Vegas), Max Thieriot and Gil Bellows.

Lawrence plays Elissa, a teenage girl who moves in a new house in a small upscale rural down with her newly-divorced mother Sarah (Shue). Of course, it doesn’t take them long to learn that their dream house has a sordid history – years before, a daughter killed her parents in their beds, and then vanished, leaving only her brother Ryan (Thieriot) alive. But as Elissa and Ryan become closer, strange things start happening, and the evil that once lived there threatens to resurface.

Will Lawrence’s presence in this film bring in those who loved her as Katniss Everdeen? Maybe a few, just enough to lift what looks like another creepy-house thriller above the average. I think it will scare up (heh) an OW of about $14M, on its way to five Top 5 points, two PTA, $31M and a Rating in the mid-6’s. It, too, is priced at $9 (in both leagues), and it would seem to be a more solid pick than End of Watch, but I still wouldn’t risk it. Horror films will be plentiful over the next six weeks, and I seriously doubt that House at the End of the Street will be any more memorable than any that follow.




The most expensive property this week is Dredd (Lionsgate), but it is getting the smallest release platform of the four (2,400 locations). This British sci-fi actioner is based on the 2000 AD comic strip Judge Dredd and its eponymous character created by John Wagner and Carlos Ezquerra. And if you are wondering if this is a remake/reboot of 1995 adaptation of the same character entitled Judge Dredd (starring Sylvester Stallone), it’s not. The story is completely different.

The film takes place in a dystopian future, when most of the planet has become an uninhabitable wasteland. Nearly all of humanity reside in huge Mega-Cities, where the traditional police departments have been replaced by “Judges”, who act not only as law enforcers but law dispensers. The famed and feared Judge Dredd (Karl Urban), along with his partner, a semi-psychic cop named Anderson (Olivia Thirlby) respond to a report of violence in a building controlled by ruthless drug lord Ma-Ma (300’s Lena Headey), only to find themselves locked in the building with no choice but to shoot their way out.

Indeed, the plot is nothing like the original film. Instead, the plot seems almost an exact parallel with the terrific Indonesian action film The Raid: Redemption from earlier this year, but with just a different setting. If you remember, the original Judge Dredd tanked horribly, and I fully expect Dredd to do the same, despite being showcased in 3D, and, unbelievably, despite the amazing reviews (46/51 positive at RT… are you kidding me?!). Wow… I may have to check this out.

Dredd is priced at $12 in Ultimate and $14 in Box Office, and other than in Bankrupts, this won’t give you any good results. Maybe two Top 5 points, no PTA, an OW of $10M and $26M overall. The Rating is actually quite impressive (7.8 with over 4,000 votes), but the rest of its prospects are quite Dredd-ful. (Sorry, I just had to throw that pun in somewhere.)




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release features:

The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit Entertainment) ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This young-adult romantic drama was directed by Stephen Chbosky who, coincidentally, also wrote the novel the film is based on. Attempting to capture the immense highs and crushing lows of growing up, Chbosky has assembled a decent cast of young actors, including Emma Watson, whose post-Harry Potter career seems to be proceeding apace.

The lead character and narrator of the story is Charlie (Logan Lerman), who begins high school with high hopes but almost immediately finds himself not fitting in… until he finds a group of similar misfits, with whom he clicks almost immediately. This group includes Patrick (Ezra Miller) and Sam (Watson), who have embraced their… unique status. Gradually, Charlie begins to discover not only his inspiration but his direction as a budding writer. Notable actors Paul Rudd, Kate Walsh and Dylan McDermott have smaller roles, and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Perks was produced by the film production company known as Mr. Mudd (which was founded by John Malkovich, Lianne Halfon and Russell Smith), the same company that produced young-adult dramedies Juno and Art School Confidential.

Perks will be debuting in four theaters this weekend, which is a great number. It’s also gotten good reviews (9/14 positive), has a terrific Rating (7.7 with over 2,000 votes) and has a stellar cast. And if it were debuting on any weekend other than the one following the titanic showing by The Master, I might pick it to win the PTA race. However, all things being equal, the rest of the field is playing for second place in that category. I think four PTA points is the best you can expect for $5, and that’s not quite enough to justify taking it.




How to Survive a Plague (IFC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This documentary from director David France, which debuted earlier this year at Sundance, tells the story of two coalitions: ACT UP and TAG (Treatment Action Group), whose activists, despite having no scientific training, successfully infiltrated the pharmaceutical industry in the 80’s and 90’s and, against all odds, was able to turn AIDS from a certified death sentence into a manageable condition.

Early reviews have been great for How to Survive (7/7 positive), which uses never-before-seen stuff and other archive footage of some of the trials that HIV-positive and those stricken with AIDS had to deal with in the days before there was a treatment, when paranoia and fear ran rampant. Unlike the lukewarm reception that Pink Ribbons Inc. got earlier this year, I expect How to Survive to do a bit better. However, that may not be saying much. For $3, you may get three PTA and a Rating just below 6.0. But then, you may not even get that.




Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel (Samuel Goldwyn) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – The documentary is about the Paris-born Diana Vreeland, who was one of the most noted columnists and fashion editors of the 20th century, working her magic for magazines such as Vogue and Harper’s Bazaar. Three directors are being given credit, including Lisa Immordino Vreeland, who I can only assume is related to Diana in some way. The film is a biography of Vreeland (who died in 1989), composed of photographs, interviews with peers, etc., telling the story of not only her work and career but her private life as well.

Three years ago, a documentary about fashion editor Anna Wintour, entitled The September Issue, galloped off with ten PTA. However, something tells me that The Eye Has to Travel will not even come close to that number. I’m not sure how many theaters will be playing it, but regardless, I figure one or two PTA is the best it can hope for.




My predictions for the weekend of September 21-23, 2012:

1. Trouble With the Curve - $20 million
2. House at the End of the Street - $14 million
3. End of Watch - $12 million
4. Resident Evil: Retribution - $11 million
5. Dredd 3D - $10 million
6. Finding Nemo 3D - $9 million

PTA race (all leagues): The Master, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Trouble With the Curve, Liberal Arts, House at the End of the Street

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out September with six new titles, including: Hotel Transylvania, an animated comedy starring Adam Sandler; Looper, a twisty sci-fi actioner starring Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon-Levitt; Won’t Back Down, an inspirational teacher story starring Viola Davis and Maggie Gyllenhaal; Pitch Perfect, a musical comedy starring Anna Kendrick; as well as limited-release films Bringing Up Bobby and Vulgaria.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Baz Luhrmann (director, Moulin Rouge!, Australia and the upcoming The Great Gatsby) turns 50 on 9/17
Dustin Nguyen (21 Jump Street [TV]) turns 50 on 9/17
Rick Pitino (NCAA, NBA coach) turns 60 on 9/18
Cheri Oteri (SNL) turns 50 on 9/19
Columbus Short (Stomp the Yard) turns 30 on 9/19
Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding) turns 50 on 9/21
Billie Piper (Doctor Who) turns 30 on 9/22

Later!

[numbersix]

An odd week, as there's a bunch of competing films with audiences that cross over. And considering none of them are slam-dunk hits, I suspect none of them will do particularly well.

I agree that Trouble with the Curve has the best chances, with a higher theatre count and Clint's presence, as well as good vibes due to Moneyball's success. But this doesn't look like Moneyball, Clint has embarrassed himself (though I doubt this is going to be a huge factor), and there's not a huge amount of buzz.

House at the End is battling against The Possession, feels a little too early for Halloween anticipation, and Lawrence cannot draw in an audience alone. End of Watch looks appealing but I'm not sure if it's getting anyone outside of the critics excited. There's plenty of good WoM on Dredd, but does anyone care that much?

As for PTA, with The Master expanding wide, Wallflower could get 5 points, followed by The Master (it should still be good for a 7-10K PTA), How to Survive, and Trouble, and Diana Vreeland.

1. Trouble With the Curve - $16 million
2. House at the End of the Street - $13 million
3. End of Watch - $11 million
4. Dredd 3D - $11 million
5. Resident Evil: Retribution - $10 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Dredd and End of Watch will likely cancel each other, HaTES will do a little better than Silent House (although horror movies always have that chance of breaking out unexpectedly), and Trouble With The Curve will win an ugly, crowded weekend.

Just give me Looper already!

[Buscemi]

I think Clint's appearance at the Republican National Convention will hurt Trouble With The Curve. The controversy likely won't bring in people who usually see movies while conservatives rarely see Hollywood-made movies.

The House at the End of the Street looks like one big yawn. How long will it take audiences to realize how one-dimensional Lawrence is with her roles?

Dredd and End of Watch can compete. One's a sci-fi film, the other is a found footage film with a style similar to Act of Valor.

And The Master should do very well in its expansion. Word of mouth was strong and it's adding more 70mm prints in some of the big markets.

1. End of Watch $20 million
2. Dredd $16 million
3. Finding Nemo $11 million
4. Trouble With The Curve $10 million
5. The House at the End of the Street $9 million
6. Resident Evil: Retribution $8 million
7. The Master $7 million

On PTA, The Perks of Being a Wallflower looks like a dud. Popular books rarely translate to box office success (look at The Kite Runner and The Road) and the film looks derivative of every 1980's teen film and every homage to 1980's teen films in recent years.

[W]

I know a lot of cops that really want to see end of watch, but I don't know if that's a demographic you can count on to go to the theaters. I think it's a little more than the two you mentioned (Brooklyn's Finest and Street Kings) and should have decent legs if it really is 90+% good. The eyeball test says that this looks more like Training Day (which the director wrote) than Street Kings (which he wrote and directed), though Gyllenhall and Pena aren't Denzel and Hawke. I'd say $15M/40-45.

As for House at the End of the Street, if people came out to see Harry Potter do a horror film, why wouldn't they come out to see Katniss do one? The Possession has nothing on this film in terms of star power (now that the main actress is the lead on a $350 M movie and with two or three sequels remaining) and advertising. I'm looking at Woman in Black and wondering why it won't match the $20 M/$50-55 M it did.

Trouble with the Curve looks excellent and the Moneyball comparisons are fairly apt (though that was more a biopic than this one), but I don't think it sniffs Moneyball financially and I think it barely loses the weekend to House. $19/55-$60

I don't understand how Dredd has as good of rating as it does and it may have decent legs, though with a tiny OW it will hardly matter. Not many in the general public wants to see a Judge Dredd remake (though I drafted it). $8/$21

[empire13]

I don't think you can discount Eastwood's popularity in front of the camera. Also, Trouble With the Curve crosses demographics and should entertain both male and female audiences.

Like Shryke, I'd put End of Watch in the category of Street Kings and Brooklyn's Finest. Additionally, as has been stated numerous times on different threads, Jake Gyllenhaal cannot carry a film.

I think Dredd looks great but don't think it has a cast that can draw in a genre that has limited mass appeal (though I myself am a huge sci-fi nut). Add to this that there is still a bad taste regarding Stallone's adaptation and I don't see Dredd doing much.

House at the end of the Street? Blah...

1. Trouble With the Curve $23 million
2. House at the End of the Street $18 million
3. End of Watch $14 million
4. Dredd $12 million
5. Finding Nemo $8.8 million
6. Resident Evil $8 million

I know I don't do this often, but this week looked like fun.

[transformers2]

Lol @ $7 mil for The Master. Yes the PTA was incredible in 4 theaters as expected, but will it really do anything outside of the snob crowd? We'll have to wait and see, but I'm going to say the chances are slim to none. The 4 major releases this weekend should all have middling debuts in between $12 and 18 Mil. I think Trouble with the Curve will come out on top (though Eastwood's RNC meltdown could hurt it's gross), but I wouldn't be shocked if any of the other releases did instead.

1.Trouble with the Curve $18 Mil
2.The House at the End of the Street $15 Mil
3.End of Watch $14 Mil
4.Dredd $12 Mil
5.Resident Evil: Retribution $10 Mil

[Buscemi]

As I said, the word-of-mouth on The Master has been very positive. Combined with the Scientology premise and strong cast, it will bring in a lot of people in wide release.

[transformers2]

As I said, the word-of-mouth on The Master has been very positive. Combined with the Scientology premise and strong cast, it will bring in a lot of people in wide release.

Yes the world-of mouth has been strong, amongst it's target audience of snobs. I am pretty confident that normal audiences will not feel the same way.

[Buscemi]

Not everyone is you, Tranny. People want to watch something other than toilet humor and explosions.

Anyway, Scientology is a controversial topic. This being the first major motion picture on the subject, I feel that audiences will be very interested.

[silversurfer19]

I think the two of you are the extremes of the demographic of average movie-goers. I think with an expansion into 600 theatres, which remember is hardly nationwide tranny, a figure in the region of $4.5m would not be out of this world. That would give it a PTA for PTA of 7500 which I think is a reasonable figure, considering a big drop would be expected considering the huge increase in locations. Not that I'd be totally surprised by figures closer to the $7m Boussh is suggesting, just I'm tempering my expectations a little considering it may also be a film which turns a lot of people off.

[transformers2]

Not everyone is you, Tranny. People want to watch something other than toilet humor and explosions.

Anyway, Scientology is a controversial topic. This being the first major motion picture on the subject, I feel that audiences will be very interested.

Yep you very accurately just filmed up my film taste, you know me all too well Boosh . All I'm saying this movie is going to be a tough sell with a wide audience and those who do see it outside of the arthouse snob crowd are probably not going to like it. Clearly I haven't seen it, but from what I've read in numerous reviews (both positive and negative) it's a really slow movie that is going to split audiences down the middle. Based on that information and it's premise, I can't see it doing well with the masses. I see it doing $4-4.5 mil tops this weekend and that's pushing it.

[Shrykespeare]

I am a huge fan of Dr. Who, and I grew up watching it, so every time I see or hear the words "The Master", all I can picture is:



Anthony Ainley was such a great character actor.

[empire13]

Is The Master expanding to 600 theaters for sure? This is the Weinstein Company after all.

[Buscemi]

But you've got a popular director in Paul Thomas Anderson and three name actors in the leads.