SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/14

[Shrykespeare]

Yikes. Well, let’s hope that this past weekend is as bad as it will get. Not since the weekend of September 5-7, 2008 has a film won the weekend with less than $10 million, but it happened. On that weekend, Bangkok Dangerous took first with a pitiful $7.8M, just ahead of Tropic Thunder (in its fourth week) and The Dark Knight (in its EIGHTH week). This weekend, The Possession took first place with a mere $9.5M, far ahead of fellow holdover Lawless and newcomer The Words. (BTW: the last pure horror film to win back-to-back weekends? The Final Destination, which won these exact same two weekends back in 2009.) On the PTA front, new indie films Hello I Must Be Going and Keep the Lights On finally dethroned Samsara from the top spot.

Now that we’ve hit rock bottom, the box office can start its slow climb back up to respectability. Over the next few months, there will be a fair number of studio-dumps, but there will also be an equal number of Oscar-bait dramas, Halloween-season scares, and some big-budget blockbuster films once we hit November. This week, however, we begin the climb with two wide-release movies, both of whose titles should be very familiar to moviegoers.

On May 30, 2003, Pixar released what many consider to be their greatest film, Finding Nemo. The story, about a desperate clownfish named Marlin (Albert Brooks) searching the ocean high and low for his missing son Nemo (Alexander Gould) with the help of a ditzy fish named Dory (the wonderful Ellen DeGeneres) became an instant classic. It had an OW of $70.3M, and had the game been around at the time, it would have earned 24 Top 5 points, about 8-10 PTA, and nearly $340M. A true must-have. This weekend will feature the re-release of Finding Nemo 3D (Buena Vista) in about 2,900 locations. You’ve all seen it, so I don’t need to go into the plot any more than I already have.

So let’s talk about its prospects. It was about two years ago that 3D re-releases became the “in” thing, and when Disney re-released The Lion King in 3D, and it zoomed to $94M in earnings, surprising everyone. Since then, many converted classics have been shoved into theaters, with less impressive results, including Beauty and the Beast ($47.6M), Titanic ($57.9M) and Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace ($43.5M)… not that I consider that turd a classic.

So where will Finding Nemo fall in that list? On the one hand, it is quite possibly Pixar’s best combination of being family-friendly, well-reviewed, and susceptible to multiple viewings. It may not be Pixar’s biggest movie ever, but, as I said earlier, many view it as their best, particularly children. On the other hand, most families have this film on DVD, or have seen it repeatedly on the Disney Channel. Plus, it’s September, and even though The Lion King opened to $30M on this weekend two years ago, it would be unrealistic to expect history to repeat itself to that degree. Plus, take into account that The Lion King hadn’t been in wide release in seventeen years, whereas it’s only been nine years for Nemo.

In the September leagues, Finding Nemo 3D is robustly priced at $16 in Ultimate and $17 in Box Office. I think it will have a very respectable OW, earning $22 million, on its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA and $61 million overall. Plus, you’ll have the added bonus of a well-established Rating of 8.1, which isn’t likely to change given that there are over 300,000 votes in the can for this film. (IMDb doesn’t create separate pages for re-releases.) Those are very decent numbers. Yeah, they’re not spectacular, but this just isn’t the season for spectacular. Decent may have to suffice.




This weekend’s other wide-release film is Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony/Screen Gems), the fifth installment in the franchise based on the mega-popular video game. Once again, Paul W.S. Anderson is behind the camera, and once again, his wife Milla Jovovich is leading the way. The film will be debuting in roughly 2,850 theaters starting this Friday. It’s tough for any franchise, particularly one with horror elements, to keep it fresh enough to bring viewers back to the theaters after this many installments, but Resident Evil seems to find ways to do it. Believe it or not, every chapter since the original has either improved or nearly improved on its predecessor’s numbers. To wit:

3/02: Resident Evil - $17.7M OW, $40.1M total
9/04: RE: Apocalypse - $23.0M OW, $51.2M total
9/07: RE: Extinction - $23.7M OW, $50.7M total
9/10: RE: Afterlife - $26.7M OW, $60.1M total

So what will be the gimmick that keeps fans flocking back this time? Well, apparently the evil Umbrella Corporation, whose deadly T-virus has ravaged the Earth, turning people into flesh-craving zombies, has decided to foil the plans of Alice (Jovovich) and her allies by cloning former friends and enemies of hers who died in previous installments and turning them against her. Among this number are Rain Ocampo (Michelle Rodriguez), Carlos Olivera (Oded Fehr) and James Shade (Colin Salmon). Sienna Guillory and Boris Kodjoe also reprise their roles (though Wentworth Miller seems to be absent).

Afterlife raised the bar from previous installments – after Anderson took over the reins again – by incorporating mind-blowing 3D effects and more explosive action, which is probably why it was the most successful entry in the series (esp. overseas, where it earned a staggering $236M). Sony is clearly hoping that Retribution, with its all-star cast a la Fast Five, will be even bigger. I think it definitely has a chance to do that.

Retribution will run you $16 in both leagues. After the dismal outings of the past few weeks, moviegoers are ready to sink their teeth into something new. And while small kids and their parents are watching Nemo for the umpteenth time, action and horror lovers can see Resident Evil: Retribution. I will crawl out on the skinny branches and predict that it will win the weekend, earning $25 million on its way to eight Top 5 points, three PTA and, believe it or not, a decent Rating near 7.0 (it’s currently at 7.1). Again, very respectable numbers.




How ironic is it that on a weekend that features a new film by Paul W.S. Anderson also comes a new film by his namesake, Paul THOMAS Anderson? Well, though their names are the same, their resumes couldn’t be more different. While P.W.S. has preferred to make low-to-mid-grade action movies for the past decade, P.T. has preferred to make stirring dramas, the type that tend to get infinitely more acclaim and better reviews, including Boogie Nights, Magnolia and, most recently, There Will Be Blood, which won scads of awards including both a Golden Globe and an Oscar by Daniel Day-Lewis in the leading role.

The Master (Weinstein Co.) centers on Freddie Quell (Joaquin Phoenix), a WWII naval veteran who comes home badly shaken from his wartime experiences. During this difficult transitional period, he makes the acquaintance of a charismatic intellectual named Lancaster Dodd (Philip Seymour Hoffman), whose silver tongue turns Freddie into a firm believer in his philosophies. However, such firm devotion coupled with such a fragile emotional state as Freddie’s can be a dangerous thing, and before long, Freddie starts to find his entire psyche cracking. The supporting cast also includes Oscar-nominated actresses Amy Adams and Laura Dern.

The Master has received nearly perfect reviews so far, with 13 of 14 positive reviews at RT (the one negative was from TIME magazine’s critic, Richard Corliss). The more notable critics have cited both Phoenix’s and Hoffman’s performances as “Oscar-worthy”, also calling the film “strikingly well-made”, “bold”, and “extraordinary”. The more tempered reviews, however, say the film is probably Anderson’s least “accessible” film to date, and Corliss states that the film “doesn’t extend or expand Anderson’s artistic journey”, whatever that means.

Oscar-winning cast. A plethora of fantastic reviews. Only showing in four theaters. Do I need to connect the dots for you? Yes, mid-September is a bit early to be pushing a film into theaters that will likely be competing for small gold statuettes in six months, but I guess there’s something to be said for being the first one out of the gate. If The Master, which will run you a hefty $8 in Ultimate leagues, doesn’t earn at least ten PTA points, I will be amazed. Obviously, this is a must-have, especially when you take into account its whopping 8.6 Rating (with over 700 votes). It also may be worth its price tag in Box Office ($4): There Will Be Blood also opened in a handful of theaters just after Christmas 2007, but by the end of February 2008 it had expanded to well over 1,500 theaters and had earned $37 million. I don’t know if The Master will do the same, but it’s definitely possible.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two other limited-release films:

Liberal Arts (IFC) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Comedic actor Josh Radnor (How I Met Your Mother) follows up his directorial debut Happythankyoumoreplease with this dramedy, which stars himself, Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcia May Marlene) and Zac Efron (The Lucky One).

Josh plays Jesse, a thirty-something, recently-single guy who is uninspired by the directions his life took after college, and begins feeling nostalgic. So when his favorite professor (Richard Jenkins) invites him back to his alma mater for his retirement party, Jesse jumps at the chance. Once there, he meets and becomes romantically involved with a college student named Zibby (Olsen), whose love of classical music begins to stir new feelings of possibility and connection within him.

Shot on the grounds of Kenyon College (Radnor’s alma mater), Liberal Arts has a lot of things going for it: a small release platform (four theaters), decent reviews (5/8 so far on RT), a good Rating (7.1 with nearly 500 votes), and it has been road-tested at Sundance. I think PTA is definitely a possibility for Liberal Arts… it probably won’t come close to The Master’s numbers, but it could easily take second place. For $4, I think it could grab anywhere from four to six PTA points of its own.




Stolen (Millennium) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Because The Perks of Being a Wallflower moved back one week, I had to fill the gap with something, and so I chose this low-grade action-thriller from director Simon West (The Expendables 2). It stars Nicolas Cage, the undisputed king of low-grade action flicks, and it will be playing starting Friday in an unknown number of theaters.

Case plays Will Montgomery, an ex-con just released from prison after serving a stretch for bank robbery. He decides to visit his ex-wife Riley (Malin Akerman) and estranged daughter Alison (Sami Gayle) to try to reconnect, but when Alison is kidnapped by Will’s old partner (Josh Lucas), he is forced to rob another bank of $10 million to pay the ransom… and while evading the same detective that put him away eight years before (Danny Huston).

Look, I’ll admit, I have a soft spot for Cage, and I’m amazed that he can turn out three to five bad action movies or thrillers every year and still get work. However, his career just chugs merrily on, and he will be appearing in the future in both Kick-Ass 2 and National Treasure 3. I don’t imagine that Stolen will garner any more attention than recent outings Seeking Justice or Trespass, and I certainly wouldn’t weigh down my roster with it.




My predictions for the weekend of September 14-16, 2012:

1. Resident Evil: Retribution - $25 million
2. Finding Nemo 3D - $22 million
3. The Possession – $5 million
4. Lawless - $4 million
5. The Expendables 2 - $3 million

PTA race (Jul/Aug leagues): The Master, Liberal Arts, Resident Evil: Retribution, Finding Nemo 3D, Samsara

PTA race (Sep leagues): The Master, Liberal Arts, Resident Evil: Retribution, Finding Nemo 3D, Hello I Must Be Going

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week will be a very crowded one, as I will talk about seven new films, including: Dredd, a dystopian actioner with Karl Urban; Trouble With the Curve, a sports drama starring Clint Eastwood; The House at the End of the Street, Jennifer Lawrence’s Hunger Games follow-up; End of Watch, a gritty cop drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal; as well as limited releases The Perks of Being a Wallflower, How to Survive a Plague and Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Kristy McNichol (Family, Empty Nest) turns 50 on 9/11
Amy Yasbeck (The Mask, Wings) turns 40 on 9/12
Neal Peart (Rush drummer) turns 60 on 9/12
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler, Iron Man 2) turns 60 on 9/16

Later!

[Buscemi]

Another thing that will guarantee monster PTA for The Master: it's the first film in 15 years getting a release in the 70mm format (the last film released in 70mm: Titanic). Cinephiles in New York and Los Angeles will make this a no-brainer choice (also, even watching a trailer online shows how gorgeous the 65mm-originated cinematography is).

Weekend predictions:

1. Finding Nemo 3-D $30 million
2. Resident Evil: Retribution $19 million (I haven't seen much marketing for this one and besides, it was made more for international audiences)
3. The Possession $4.5 million
4. Lawless $4 million
5. The Expendables $2.75 million
-- The Master $400,000 (yes, a $100,000 PTA)

[Wrestler]

I wish it wasn't true but my theater is scheduled to get the master on the 21st(Not that I don't want to get the movie I think it looks great just like to have it do better pta business) meaning they are going to be giving it a quick expansion. Now they certainly could back out of it and keep it limited for a few weeks but I felt I would share my insider info for anyone thinking it will be a pta goldmine.

[Buscemi]

Of course, it could still do over $10,000 PTA with an expansion to 100-200 theatres. It's going to be a film that will generate lots of word of mouth (like Beasts of the Southern Wild did back in the summer, though that was on a smaller scale).

[silversurfer19]

I think it's expansion will depend a lot on how audience reaction to the film goes. At the moment critics love it, but I've heard wildly different opinions from audiences. As Shryke mentioned, some claim it a masterpiece, while others finding it too difficult and uninvolving. If that does indeed happen to be the case then it will likely not expand very quickly at all, and will unlikely come close to There Will Be Blood's total. At the moment though it's very up in the air, much depends on audience reaction, so should be an interesting couple of weeks.

[Buscemi]

The film tested extremely well and won the Silver Lion at Venice. And the only people that seem to be vocal about hating it are Corliss and The Sleepy Skunk (who seems to hate anything that doesn't feature an explosion or Ryan Reynolds).

As for audience reaction, if they could accept that maddeningly dumb final third of Beasts of the Southern Wild (which establishes how moronic the characters really were) then they can accept Joaquin Phoenix joining a religious cult.

[undeadmonkey]

i haven't been to the theaters since Dark Knight came out, but this weekend i would like to go see all of the films mentioned, except for Stolen. i'm pretty sure that we are going to go see Nemo.

[numbersix]

1. Finding Nemo 3D - $23 million
2. Resident Evil: Retribution - $20 million
3. The Possession – $4.5 million
4. Lawless - $3.5 million
5. The Expendables 2 - $3 million

No doubt The Master will win 5 PTA points, with Liberal Arts coming in 2nd and the Nemo, Res Evil, Keep the Lights On, and Hello I Must Be Going battling it out for the final 3.

[englishozzy]

1. Resident Evil: Retribution - $25 million
2. Finding Nemo 3D - $21 million
3. The Possession - $3 million
4. Lawless - $2 million
5. The Expendables 2 - $1.5 million

[transformers2]

I am willing to bet The Master will make very little waves in wide release. It's the epitome of an indie-snob movie and the concept is definitely a tough sell for a mainstream audience. Of course it will do amazing in limited-release and it will receive a boost come awards-season, but before it will do pretty damn bad in wide release. Onto my predictions for this weekend....

1.Resident Evil: Retribution $26 Mil
2.Finding Nemo 3D $21 Mil
3.The Possession $4.5 Mil
4.Lawless $3.5 Mil
5.The Expendables 2 $3 Mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I am willing to bet The Master will make very little waves in wide release. It's the epitome of an indie-snob movie and the concept is definitely a tough sell for a mainstream audience. Of course it will do amazing in limited-release and it will receive a boost come awards-season, but before it will do pretty damn bad in wide release. Onto my predictions for this weekend....l

At first glance I want to agree with you but then again, There Will Be Blood made $50M.

[Buscemi]

The official theatre count for The Master is 5 theatres (3 in New York, 2 in Los Angeles). Three of them will run it in 70mm.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Resident Evil: Retribution - 3,012
Finding Nemo - 2,904
Stolen - 141
Liberal Arts - 4
The Master - 4 (or perhaps 5, as Boosh said)


Estimates for next week:

Trouble With the Curve - 3,100+
House at the End of the Street - 2,600
Dredd - 2,400
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - 4

[W]

Big # for Curve...

[Buscemi]

The Master has been confirmed by Box Office Mojo to be opening in 5 theatres.