SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/7

[Shrykespeare]

Box office numbers tend to take a nosedive around Labor Day… always have, always will. It’s funny to think that The Possession, which took the top spot this weekend with $17 million, earns the same number of Top 5 points that The Avengers did on its $200 million OW back in May. Though nothing about those two films is in any way alike, it’s a testament to just how equal the ground is for this game over the course of the year. All other outings failed to even make eight digits, while on the PTA front, Samsara and Sleepwalk With Me switched places, going #1 and #2, giving them nine PTA points each.

So now that the calendar has turned to September, will things improve? Short answer: nope. There are two movies coming in wide release, and look for both of them to make barely a splash. Actually, change that: one will barely make a splash, and the other will come and go so fast no one will even remember it was there (and that is surprising, given that it has Bruce Willis in it). Ahem. It’s the start of a new month, so I will remind you that in the brand new September seasons, only the five films opening this Friday will be eligible for PTA points. Which means all of them will get at least one, and one will get five no matter what Samsara and Sleepwalk With Me do.

How bad are this weekend’s prospects? Unlike last year, which featured strong, strong legs from The Help, which won this particular weekend last year, nothing currently in theaters has any momentum at all. Like most poorly-reviewed horror films, count on The Possession to drop at least 50%. I will optimistically predict it will earn $8 million, which will be enough to win the weekend ahead of this weekend’s only new film, The Words (CBS Films). It will be debuting in 2,700 theaters or so starting Friday.

Interestingly enough, The Words is directed by two men making their directorial debuts, Brian Klugman and Lee Sternthal, though they are credited with co-writing the story for Tron: Legacy. It’s been tough for me glean a plot from the trailers and synopses I’ve found, but here goes: the story centers on Rory Jansen, a struggling writer who one day finds tremendous success after writing a great American novel… from someone else’s memoirs. Gradually, he starts to realize that stealing another man’s words carry with it a steep price, and that includes ignoring family and friends to achieve one’s goals. The tremendous supporting cast includes Jeremy Irons, Dennis Quaid, Zoe Saldana, Olivia Wilde, Ben Barnes, J.K. Simmons and John Hannah.

In order for a film to be successful, it needs two things in spades: awareness and interest. And the trouble with The Words is that it has barely enough of one and not enough of the other, despite the terrific cast. I think an OW of only $7 million is the best it can hope for, on its way to six Top 5 points, two or three PTA, a decent Rating (currently at 7.4) and $18 million. For $9 in the September Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office), The Words is a bad investment, any way you slice it.




Of course, The Words is practically Titanic compared to The Cold Light of Day (Summit Entertainment), which just this week was upgraded to a wide-release status despite the fact that there have been no commercials, no trailers and no advertising at all for it. It is being shoe-horned into 1,500 theaters starting Friday.

Director Mabrouk El Mechri (JCVD) is behind the camera for this action romp, which starts Henry Cavill (Immortals) as Will Shaw, a young man who joins his dad Martin (Bruce Willis) and mom Laurie (Caroline Goodall) on a vacation in Spain. However, they are soon captured by intelligence agents who are hell-bent on recovering a briefcase that only Will can retrieve. He is helped by a former CIA coworker of his father’s (Sigourney Weaver) as well as a local woman (Veronica Echegui) to try to unravel the mystery behind this web of intrigue.

This is the kind of film that Nicolas Cage lives for, and it probably would have been direct-to-DVD if he had been the headliner instead of Willis. That being said, the film has gotten dreadful reviews, has a terrible Rating (4.9 so far), and it will more than likely join Oogieloves in having one of the lowest OW’s of any wide-release film. I wouldn’t take this film for $6 in Ultimate ($7 in Box Office), except in Bankrupts. Heck, I wouldn’t take it for $2. Neither should you.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release features:

Hello, I Must Be Going (Oscilloscope Pictures) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This romantic dramedy stars New Zealand actress Melanie Lynskey (Up in the Air) as Amy, a thirtysomething divorcee who decides to hide from the world in the Connecticut home of her parents (Blythe Danner, John Rubinstein). Happenstance throws her in the path of a 19-year-old actor named Jeremy, and despite the age difference, a sexual spark develops almost immediately, and blossoms into a secret romance.

Set to debut in two theaters this Friday, Hello I Must Be Going has gotten decidedly mixed reviews (5/10 at RT), although most have praised Lynskey’s acting in the leading role. The film has also won awards at the Hollywood Film Festival and the NZ Film Awards, as well as being showcased at Sundance. And while I think that this film has the a good chance of earning three to five PTA points, it also has some heavy baggage, in the form of a terrible Rating (4.4 with 150 votes). I just don’t think it’s worth the trade-off.




Girl Model (First Run) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This documentary from directors David Redmon and Ashley Sabin explores the modeling industry’s “supply chain” between Siberia, Japan and the United States, as told through the fortunes of various barely-teenaged models who are sent abroad to seek their fortunes in the extremely unforgiving world of modeling. One particular girl, a shy 13-year-old Siberian girl named Nadya, comes from a small town and has no prospects except for those that her looks can provide.

It’s quite obvious that this film is meant to be polarizing, as it throws open the doors to a side of modeling that few people acknowledge. While not necessarily exploited sexually, these young girls are dressed up in beautiful clothes and makeup that make them look of age, and the pressure for them to be successful models, to say nothing of maintaining their figures, is more than many of them can bear.

Girl Model will be debuting in one theater this Wednesday in New York, before expanding to a few other locations in the next few weeks. I think it has a good shot at PTA, though I doubt it is the kind of film that will hang around in that category for multiple weeks. It has a decent Rating (6.8), and it has been well-reviewed, so it would make a good eighth pick, and that’s about all.




Keep the Lights On (Music Box Films) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This one is easily the cream of this week’s crop. It will be debuting on five screens this Friday, and will be expanding about twenty by the end of October. It has been showcased at numerous film festivals (Sundance, Berlin, Outfest), and it has gotten nothing but positive reviews so far (8/8 at RT).

Directed by Ira Sachs (and based in part on a past relationship of his own), Keep the Lights On tells the story of a Manhattan filmmaker named Erik (Thure Lindhardt) who enters a relationship with closeted publishing lawyer Paul (Zachary Booth). However, as their bond deepens, both of their inner demons come to the forefront, and they must battle their own compulsions and addictions in order to keep their relationship afloat.

There are plenty of movies in past years about male homosexual relationships that have become PTA standouts, such as Beginners, The Kids Are All Right and a few others. I don’t know if Keep the Lights On will do THAT well, but for $3, I think it could easily get six or seven PTA, which would make it worth it despite the mediocre Rating (5.2). It’s about all you’ll find this week with a lot to recommend it.




My predictions for the weekend of September 7-9, 2012:

1. The Possession – $8 million
2. The Words - $7 million
3. Lawless - $6 million
4. The Expendables 2 - $6 million
5. The Bourne Legacy - $5 million
6. ParaNorman – $5 million

PTA race (Jul/Aug leagues): Keep the Lights On, Samsara, Hello I Must Be Going, Sleepwalk With Me, Girl Model

PTA race (Sep leagues): Keep the Lights On, Hello I Must Be Going, Girl Model, The Words, The Cold Light of Day

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, there’s nowhere to go but up, and trying to make that happen are two very familiar names: first up is the 3D re-release of Pixar’s masterpiece Finding Nemo, and the other is the latest in the long-running video-game-based films series, Resident Evil: Retribution, with Milla Jovovich back again for more zombie-butt-kicking action. Also out in limited release is the critical giant The Master, starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, as well as romantic drama The Perks of Being a Wallflower, comic drama Liberal Arts and low-grade Nicolas Cage action thriller Stolen.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Eileen Brennan (The Sting, Clue) turns 80 on 9/3
Werner Herzog (director, Grizzly Man) turns 70 on 9/5
Idris Elba (Thor, Prometheus) turns 40 on 9/6
Anika Noni Rose (Dreamgirls, The Princess and the Frog) turns 40 on 9/6
Dylan Bruno (Saving Private Ryan, Numb3rs) turns 40 on 9/6
Dave Stewart (Annie Lennox’s Eurythmics bandmate) turns 60 on 9/9
Goran Visnjic (Ice Age, Beginners) turns 40 on 9/9

Later!

[Buscemi]

Once again, do not put stock in IMDb on limited releases before they open. They are always going to be low since they haven't been adjusted yet.

I don't get why we put so much emphasis on that site anyway.

Anyway...

1. The Possession $9 million (nothing for teens this week so the drop should be lighter than most horror)
2. Lawless $6 million
3. The Expendables 2 $5.5 million
4. The Words $5 million
5. The Bourne Legacy $5 million
-- The Cold Light of Day $1 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'm halfway tempted to pick up The Words, only for it's guaranteed 6-7 Top 5 Points and good IMDb. But $9 may be too steep. Sad, because the pairing of Zoe Saldana and Bradley Cooper looks fantastic. Obviously, they have copious amounts of chemistry, as they wre (still are?) dating in real life.

Cold Light Of Day got one trailer put on Safe House prints, and absolutely nothing else. It was a mistake to dump it limited, but wide? Come on, Summit - if you can waste money on prints for this shit, what about releasing Wallflower wide?

[Buscemi]

Is there really a market for yet another 1980's-inspired teen comedy? There probably hasn't been a modern teen-aimed film since Thirteen (that was nine years ago).

As for The Words, it will be lucky to get 3 Top 5 points. The plot is basically Limitless 2 and that movie divided audiences.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well, one, there have been dozens of teen aimed films since Thirteen. Plus, Perks of A Wallflower is playingg TIFF so it's probably a little better than your average high school movie.

And, two, The Words is guaranteed 5 Top points in the September leagues, since the other movies won't count anymore.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, one, there have been dozens of teen aimed films since Thirteen. Plus, Perks of A Wallflower is playingg TIFF so it's probably a little better than your average high school movie.

And, two, The Words is guaranteed 5 Top points in the September leagues, since the other movies won't count anymore.

Uh, hate to burst your bubble, Banks, but it's only PTA points that are determined by the month of release.

The Words is guaranteed PTA points because its only competition in that category - for the September leagues only - are the four other films coming out the same day. If it comes in 3rd overall to, say, Samsara and Sleepwalk With Me, then it gets 3 PTA points in the July and August leagues. However, if it finishes #3 at the Box Office, then it only gets 3 Top 5 points. Follow?

[numbersix]

1. The Possession – $7 million
2. The Words - $6 million
3. Lawless - $5 million
4. The Expendables 2 - $5 million
5. Paranorman - $5 million

I don't see The Words performing well at all. A movie about a lying novellist just doesn't feel like something that a broad audience would be interested in.

[Buscemi]

Well, one, there have been dozens of teen aimed films since Thirteen. Plus, Perks of A Wallflower is playingg TIFF so it's probably a little better than your average high school movie.

And, two, The Words is guaranteed 5 Top points in the September leagues, since the other movies won't count anymore.

But how many of them have had modern influences or have not been a glorified homage to John Hughes? Because I seriously cannot think of one.

Also, Toronto has played all kinds of films of varying quality. How do you explain Hotel Transylvania being there?

[Buscemi]

1. The Possession – $7 million
2. The Words - $6 million
3. Lawless - $5 million
4. The Expendables 2 - $5 million
5. Paranorman - $5 million

I don't see The Words performing well at all. A movie about a lying novellist just doesn't feel like something that a broad audience would be interested in.

Well, that and audiences saw the same movie last year as Limitless.

[numbersix]

True, though that would actually suggest that there is an audience for The Words. Limitless did divide people, but if The Words got half of its audience that would mean nearly $40m. My concern about The Words is that the trailer makes it look far more drama-oriented, as opposed to Limitless being a more action-oriented thriller.

[Buscemi]

But do you think that even half of those people would want to see the same goddamned movie again, only with a fantasy bend instead of sci-fi?

[numbersix]

It worked for The Hangover 2!

But no, I am agreeing with you here. Even for those who liked Limitless this just looks like a boring version of it. $6/$13 is my prediction.

[englishozzy]

1. The Possession - $9 million
2. The Words - $6.5 million
3. The Expendables 2 - $5 million
4. Lawless - $4.5 million
5. The Bourne Legacy - $4 million

[transformers2]

Boosh the only similarity between The Words and Limitless is that Bradley Cooper plays an author in both. As far as I know there's no brain-boosting drugs in The Words (wink wink).

1.The Possession $9 mil
2.The Words $7 mil
3.The Expendables 2 $6 mil
4.Lawless $6 mil
5.The Bourne Legacy $4 mil

[Buscemi]

Boosh the only similarity between The Words and Limitless is that Bradley Cooper plays an author in both. As far as I know there's no brain-boosting drugs in The Words (wink wink).

1.The Possession $9 mil
2.The Words $7 mil
3.The Expendables 2 $6 mil
4.Lawless $6 mil
5.The Bourne Legacy $4 mil

But he is a struggling author who finds a key that allows him to become successful (the mind drug in Limitless, a lost manuscript in The Words) and then seeing it all unravel in the process (the addiction in Limitless, the lies in The Words). The two may play differently but otherwise, you have the same movie.