SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/29, 8/31

[Shrykespeare]

I don’t know the last time that three films debuted in the same weekend in either wide or semi-wide release and ALL THREE failed to make the Top 5, but that is what happened this past weekend. Premium Rush ($6.3M, #7), Hit & Run ($4.7M, #10) and The Apparition ($3.0M, #12) completely failed to find an audience, which meant that the holdovers held sway for another week, albeit with very unimpressive numbers. The Expendables 2 won the weekend with an anemic $13.5M, and it was the only film to even crack eight digits. Contrarily, on the PTA front, newcomers Sleepwalk With Me and Samsara both posted impressive numbers, and will both likely earn more points this week.

Box office trends are weird, and this summer had a lot of instances where a bad weekend was usually followed with a good one. Sadly, it’s not summer any more, and I think it will be a few weeks (at least) before we see another film opening with numbers that are the least bit praiseworthy ($20M+). The good news is, Top 5 points count exactly the same if you win the weekend, whether you do it earning $200 million or $12 million.

There are three films opening this week in wide release, and the one with the most box office potential would seem to be The Possession (Lionsgate). It has been many, many months since the last pure horror film; though one could argue that films like Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and Dark Shadows had horror elements, the last film that fit this description would probably be April’s The Cabin in the Woods (and if you don’t count that one as pure horror, then it would be March’s Silent House). Needless to say, horror fans are chomping at the bit for a horror flick, and with The Possession opening in over 2,700 locations, they are finally going to get one.

Between now and Halloween, scary movies will be opening aplenty. You’ll have Sinister (10/5), Paranormal Activity 4 (10/19) and Silent Hill: Revelation (10/26), not so mention several others with horror elements, such as Resident Evil: Retribution (9/14), House at the End of the Street (9/21), and animated outings Hotel Transylvania (9/28) and Frankenweenie (10/5). Summer truly is over, folks.

The Possession was originally slated to open last year, and then it was bumped to January under its original title, Dybbuk Box. However, one name change and another move later, it’s finally ready to come out. The plot: a young girl named Em (Natasha Calis) purchases an old box with a Hebrew inscription at a yard sale. It seems to be unopenable, but Em soon becomes irrationally obsessed with opening it, and that behavior soon becomes so extreme that her father (Jeffrey Dean Morgan) surmises that the box itself is exhibiting some kind of hold on her, so he and his wife (Kyra Sedgwick) must resort to equally extreme measures to free Em from the box’s grip, lest she unleash from it a terror that would make even Pandora quake in her boots.

Yeah, I know… possession/exorcism movies have been all the rage in the last few years. And though the film was directed by Ole Bornedal (who helmed the decent Nightwatch films in the 90s), it is being promoted as being the brainchild of producer Sam Raimi (who directed Drag Me to Hell). It looks very scary and disturbing, and I think it could break out… comparatively speaking, that is. I predict The Possession will make $18 million in its first three days, on its way to nine Top 5 points, three or four PTA, a mid-range Rating and $35 million overall. That’s not too shabby for a low-budget horror film, especially when you consider that there is only one film coming next week and only two the week after. For only $8 in the Ultimate leagues ($9 in Box Office), this could be a surprisingly good pick.




Up next is Lawless (Weinstein Company), which will be opening in 2,300 locations starting on Wednesday. Based on the book The Wettest County in the World (also the previous name for the film) by Matt Bondurant, adapted for the big screen by Australian songwriter Nick Cave and directed by John Hillcoat (The Road), Lawless sports a quite impressive cast that includes Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman (hot off The Dark Knight Rises), as well as Shia LaBeouf, Guy Pearce, Jessica Chastain, Mia Wasikowska and Jason Clarke.

Taking place in Depression-era Virginia, Lawless tells the (true) story of the Bondurant brothers, Jack, Forrest and Howard (LaBeouf, Hardy and Clarke) who run a bootlegging operation (and who were the author’s grandfather and great-uncles). Of course, this period in history was also one of immense corruption, and it’s not long before the Bondurants become the target of a gangster (Oldman) and a government agent (Pearce) who want in on the action. Obviously, such a conflict can only end violently.

Lawless has gotten decent reviews (21/28 positive so far), and the cast is tremendous, and there’s really no other movie quite like it out at the moment, but I think the late-August placement will not do it any favors. It’s only $10 in the Ultimate leagues ($11 in Box Office), but it’s hard to imagine Lawless during much more than $13 million in its OW ($19 million 5-day). It will easily take second this weekend, and may hang on for second place next week (The Possession is likely to take a steep nosedive), which means it could earn as many as ten Top 5 points, two PTA, and $31 million. That’s not a great ratio, but in this season when very little has the chance to bust out of the gate, it might be good enough. Its current Rating of 8.2 (with over 1,000 votes) can do nothing but help you.




There are always going to be kids movies, but there tend to be not very many that aim specifically at kids of Sesame Street-watching age. That is the case for Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure (Kenn Viselman Presents), which will be opening in about 2,000 locations starting Wednesday. The film was directed by Matthew Diamond, who was actually nominated for an Oscar in 1999 for the documentary Dancemaker, and who has also been nominated for numerous Primetime and Daytime Emmys.

The Oogieloves are three Big Bird-sized muppets, named Goobie, Zoozie and Toofie, and they are planning a birthday party for their friend Schluufy. But when their friend J. Edgar loses the last five magical balloons in all of Lovelyloveville, the trio must set out to find them in time for the party. (Don’t’cha just hate overly complicated plots?) Along the way, they meet a bevy of celebrities – not playing themselves – in cameo roles, including Cloris Leachman, Cary Elwes, Chazz Palmintieri, Toni Braxton, Christopher Lloyd and Jamie Pressly.

Yes, it’s about as saccharine as a movie can be, and I probably wouldn’t have even thought a film with such a narrow demographic would have a shot at cracking the Top 5, but who knows? It’s got a decent theater count, it’s probably been advertised like heck on the kiddie channels, it’s probably the last family film before schools get rolling in earnest, and with the holdovers dropping like stones, it probably won’t take much more than $5 million to crack the Top 5. This film will only run you $3 (in both leagues), and while I have a feeling that it will be a victim of Rating-Hating (hmmm… maybe I should patent that phrase), it could be a worthy Box Office pick for that little cash. If you’ve got $3 left on your roster, it’s probably your best option than a bunch of indie films.




And now, a little bit about this week’s two limited-release films:

For a Good Time, Call… (Focus Features) ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – This is the full-feature debut for Canadian director Jamie Travis, and it made its premiere at Sundance earlier this year. It stars Ari Graynor and Lauren Miller as Katie and Lauren, two incompatible roommates and former college frenemies. Their relationship becomes even more strained when Lauren learns that Katie earns extra money on the side by operating a phone-sex service from home. However, after losing her job, Katie grudgingly decides that if you can’t lick ‘em, join ‘em (or both).

For a Good Time, Call… is a comedy, and most of the comedy will come not only from the raunchy subject matter but the awkwardness from the conservative Lauren gradually letting her smutty side out. Graynor and Miller are not household names, but the film also features appearances by Justin Long, Mimi Rogers and Seth Rogen (Zack and Miri Make a Porno, anyone?).

A release platform of twenty-four theaters puts it still within the reach of PTA points, though I can’t see it topping either of this past weekend’s champs, Sleepwalk With Me and Samsara, in that category. It may get as many as three points, but if you choose this film, you’ll also be saddled with a very middling Rating (currently at 5.1 with only 264 votes). The critics have praised this film (7/8 positive) so far, but that many not mean much. I’d pass on this one.




The Good Doctor (Magnolia) ($2 Ult, $2 BO) – I’m not entirely sure, but I have seen advertisements on TV that this film will be making its debut on cable at roughly the same time that it debuts in theaters (and in only ONE theater, I believe). I’m not sure what that does for its PTA chances, but it can’t be good.

The title role is Dr. Martin Blake (Orlando Bloom), a young physician who transfers to a hospital in Southern California to begin his residency. As arrogant as he is handsome, Martin soon becomes infatuated with an 18-year-old girl named Diane (Riley Keough), who seeks his help with a kidney infection. However, as she starts to heal, his infatuation cranks up to 11, and Martin resorts to tampering with her medication in order to keep her sick, and near her. Yikes. Taraji P. Henson, Michael Pena and Rob Morrow co-star.

One-theater outings don’t often impress, but Sleepwalk With Me turned its one theater into a PTA of $65,000. However, The Good Doctor is not in the same league, and I would be surprised if it earned any PTA at all. And besides, it’s on cable!




My predictions for the weekend of August 31-September 2, 2012:

1. The Possession – $18 million
2. Lawless - $13 million
3. The Expendables 2 - $7 million
4. Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure - $6 million
T5. The Bourne Legacy - $5 million
T5. ParaNorman – $5 million

PTA race (all leagues): Samsara, The Possession, Lawless, For a Good Time Call…, Sleepwalk With Me

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the fall season with five films that will open up the month of September, which includes only one film in wide release, that being The Words, a romantic drama starring Bradley Cooper and Olivia Wilde. Also coming in limited release are Bruce Willis actioner The Cold Light of Day, rom-com Hello I Must Be Going, drama Keep the Lights On, and documentary Girl Model.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Paul Reubens aka Pee Wee Herman (Pee Wee’s Big Adventure) turns 60 on 8/27
Jonathan Frakes (Star Trek: The Next Generation) turns 60 on 8/27
David Fincher (director, Se7en and Fight Club) turns 50 on 8/28
LeAnn Rimes (country singer) turns 30 on 8/28
Cameron Diaz (There’s Something About Mary, next up in Gambit) turns 40 on 8/30
Andy Roddick (tennis player) turns 30 on 8/30
Chris Tucker (Rush Hour) turns 40 on 8/31
Michelle Meyrink (Real Genius, Revenge of the Nerds) turns 50 on 9/1

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. The Possession $20 million
2. Lawless $9 million
3. The Expendables 2 $7 million
4. The Bourne Legacy $5 million
5. ParaNorman $5 million
6. The Dark Knight Rises $5 million
7. The Odd Life of Timothy Green $5 million
8. The Campaign $5 million
8. Hope Springs $4 million
10. Premium Rush $4 million
11. 2016 $2.5 million (this one more than likely overperformed due to the Republican National Convention being delayed due to the hurricanes in Florida, expect future weeks to perform like every other right-wing aimed documentary)
-- Hit and Run $2 million
-- The Oogieloves $1.2 million (this is playing matinees only, which will give it terrible Friday numbers and only slightly better Saturday/Sunday numbers)
-- The Apparition $1 million

[Shrykespeare]

-- The Oogieloves $1.2 million (this is playing matinees only, which will give it terrible Friday numbers and only slightly better Saturday/Sunday numbers)

Really? I didn't know that... but it makes sense.

[transformers2]

1.The Possession $22 Mil
2.Lawless $12 Mil
3.The Expendables 2 $7 Mil
4.The Bourne Legacy $5 Mil
5.Paranorman $5 Mil

[numbersix]

Late August is such a dumping ground that I'm not excited about either of the openers (though on a personal note I really want to see Lawless). All the PTA options look weak, with For a Good Time seeming the best option (though Samsara might beat it).

1.The Possession $17 Mil
2.Lawless $11 Mil
3.The Expendables 2 $7 Mil
4. Paranorman $5 Mil
5.The Bourne Legacy $5 Mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'll say The Possession won't do $20M, more like $15-$16. It doesn't have that money shot in the trailer/commercials that The Last Exorcism had, the girl bending over backwards.

Lawless is a non-starter, too old-timey. And Busc is right, Oogieloves is only getting showings before 6, most of them around here seem to be pairing it with The Campaign or Total Recall at night.

[Buscemi]

I don't think The Possession needs a money shot. The different premise, Sam Raimi's name and it being the first big horror film in a while are enough.

[numbersix]

Tracking...

Lawless: MTC 8m (3 day) RS mid teens
Cat-Pee Box: MTC 9m (3 day) RS low-to-mid teens

Not sure if RS is for the 3 or 4 day.

[Buscemi]

In other news, I found out that The Oogieloves had a $55 million budget (along with a $40 million marketing budget). There is no way this film will break even (but amazingly, a sequel is already scheduled for release next Labor Day weekend).

[silversurfer19]

Lawless is a non-starter, too old-timey. And Busc is right, Oogieloves is only getting showings before 6, most of them around here seem to be pairing it with The Campaign or Total Recall at night.

To be honest though, does anybody seriously believe parents will take their kids to movies after 6pm? I mean of course some will, but the majority will be watching the movie during the day, so I doubt the figures will be affected by the number of showings that much.

[Buscemi]

You would be surprised, Surfer.

[Geezer]

I see that Surfer is going to be one of those "no fun" parents

[silversurfer19]

Hell no, we'll be the parents taking the kids to the movies during the day so that we can palm them off on some unsuspecting babysitter in the evening to go out and have our own fun!

[Buscemi]

I don't know if I want to have kids. I don't want to be one of those irresponsible parents who takes them to violent R-rated movies as a five-year old and blow them off on weekends to get drunk.

If anything, the people my age who already have children simply makes me facepalm due to their immaturity. That and they talk about nothing else (well, that and their love of being a stereotype).

[Buscemi]

Wednesday openers:

Lawless $1.1 million
The Oogieloves $60,000 (that's a $40 PTA)