SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/25

[Shrykespeare]

One week to go. One week of movies to talk about. One week until the October Leagues conclude. One week until we crown the champions of the 2009 Super Leagues. One week until all the retrospectives and “Best Of”s and Oscar predictions and Golden Globe predictions begin in earnest. And, lest anyone forget even though I’ve mentioned it 256 times, one week to go before the e-mail-and-message-board game finally, mercifully, comes to a close.

(Disclaimer: Yes, I know that version of the game technically won’t end until the December leagues conclude in February, but I just can’t tell you what a relief it will be to have 90% of the work I’ve been doing for the past year-plus taken out of my hands. And additionally, given that Case 39, which has been given the unusual release date of 1/1/10, will NOT be included on the roster for MMG’s January contests, means that we now have an extra week to think about our opening strategies.)

Christmas weekend. One of the most complex and most difficult-to-predict weekends of the entire year. There is literally so much going on that it’s tough to really wrap your head around it sometimes. But that’s my (ahem) job, and so, for the final time this year, let’s talk about what’s coming out this week, and how it can impact your slate.

I’ll get the fiddly bits out of the way first. Nine, one week after taking the PTA crown, will expand to 1,500 theaters, which honestly, means a severely uphill climb to get any Top 5 points at all. Best Picture front-runner Up in the Air expands to roughly 1,800 theaters, but it, too, has its work cut out for it to even crack the Top 5, given what’s coming as well as what’s already out. I personally think it will, unless The Princess and the Frog is able to rebound over the Xmas holiday. And can Avatar hold fast against tremendous competition in virtually every other genre?

I’ll start this 52nd week of the year with Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel, the second chapter in the, erm, epic tale of three diminutive, squeaky-voiced CGI animals who tore the box office a new one over Christmas weekend in 2007, to the tune of over $217 million, completely shredding the predictions of yours truly and a bevy of other expert prognosticators, who were expecting Underdog-type numbers. Two years later, I can still hardly believe it.

The Squeakuel stars with the Chipmunks’ hapless owner Dave (Jason Lee) breaking his leg during a benefit concert in Paris. Leaving his charges with his cousin Toby (Chuck's Zachary Levi) while he recovers, the trio begin their schooling, at a mostly-human high school. Meanwhile, the nefarious promoter Ian Hawke (David Cross) plots his revenge on the ‘Munks, whose departure pretty much killed his career, and said revenge comes in the equally-diminutive form of the Chipettes: three females chipmunks who are Alvin, Simon and Theodore’s exact counterparts, consisting of Eleanor (Amy Poehler), Jeanette (Anna Faris) and Brittany (Christina Applegate). The boys are smitten, of course. Hilarity and squeaky versions of pop classics ensue.

I’m loath to underestimate the considerable drawing power that this franchise exhibits. However, I would be astounded if The Squeakuel's final tally ends up anywhere near the original. I think a good parallel for comparison would be Night at the Museum, a film whose first part grossed nearly a quarter-billion, but whose sequel generated about $75 million less this past summer. Following that formula, I predict a total tally of about $150 million.

Squeakuel opens on Wednesday, two days before Christmas. I would venture a three-day weekend total of $36 million, with $51 million for the five-day weekend, which will not be enough to unseat Avatar’s second weekend, which I imagine will pull in about $44 million following its impressive $73 million debut. I also predict eleven Top 5 points and three PTA which, for $30, makes this a marginal pick. And then there’s the User Rating, which currently sits at 3.5 (with only 200 votes, but still…).

The bad news is that this property will run you $30 in the December Ultimate leagues, which is more than double the price of anything that is coming in January AND February. So if you passed on Avatar, this may be your last chance at competition in the Box Office category, unless you think that there may be a hidden gem like Paul Blart: Mall Cop or Taken was in January of 2009 coming in the next month. The WORSE news is that if there isn’t, The Squeakuel may be the only chance you have (apart from the next two movies I’m about to talk about) to make a dent in that category. You won’t have to worry about that abysmal U.R. in Box Office, but then again, in that league it will run you a full $36, exactly the same that Avatar costs. Good luck.

Up next we have Sherlock Holmes, the latest directorial effort from British helmer (and Madonna’s ex) Guy Ritchie. This is, by an order of magnitude, the largest project he has ever tackled, given that most of his cinematic success has been solely in the genre of gritty British heist movies like Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, Snatch, Revolver and last year’s RockNRolla. Very ambitious indeed, re-adapting for the big screen the story of what is undoubtedly the most famous, respected and venerated fictional detective ever created.

The character of Sherlock Holmes, a private consultant who operated from his home on Baker Street in the heart of late-Victorian-era London, has been played by scores of actors over the decades, beginning with Basil Rathbone in the 1930’s and 40’s, and also by famous actors like Michael Caine, Christopher Plummer, Peter Cook, Peter O’Toole, and Ian Richardson. (Although, for me personally, none were better than Jeremy Brett, who played Holmes no less than forty times over ten years in his critically acclaimed collection of PBS series).

Given that the character is such a well-known and exalted symbol in England, there are very few American actors that I would trust with the role. But fortunately, Robert Downey Jr. is one of those few. Along with his trusted companion and chronicler, Dr. John Watson (Jude Law), Holmes, in this particular adventure, is called into action to “stop a conspiracy to destroy Britain”. At the center of this conspiracy is the character of Lord Blackwood (Mark Strong), a murderous cult leader who vows revenge even after being apprehended (by Holmes), sentenced and executed for his crimes.

Though this is not technically a story that was penned by the author Arthur Conan Doyle, the trailer makes it look perfectly in keeping with the aura of that time and place. As a lifelong aficionado of the Holmes mysteries, I can only hope that the spirit of the character remains intact, and that the cast (as well as Ritchie) treat the parts they play with just the right amount of respect.

None of Ritchie’s films have ever come close to achieving blockbuster status, but this one just might. It’s an awfully crowded weekend, but I predict $27 million over its first three days, en route to a final total of just over $100 million overall. I also envision eight Top 5 points, 2 PTA, and a very good User Rating (probably around 8.0). But for $22 in Ultimate ($26 in Box Office), is that enough to take the plunge? It’s got a respectable RT score (68% on 19/28 positive reviews), and it will also feature the debut of Downey’s next titanic epic, next summer’s Iron Man 2, so there’s that. BOM has it bowing in over 3,600 theaters, and it’s been advertised very well, so I think it could be a very good #2 pick for your slates.

Nancy Meyers is one of the few female directors in Hollywood that seems to be consistently good. Having helmed such past success stories as What Women Want and Something’s Gotta Give (which won a Golden Globe in 2003 for Diane Keaton), the 50-year-old seems to have a knack for getting great casts as well as getting great performances out of them. In her latest film, It’s Complicated, her star is the one and only Meryl Streep, who hit her stride three decades ago and hasn’t broken it since.

In this film, Streep plays Jane, who has been divorced from her husband Jake (Alec Baldwin) for ten years. Though separated, the pair have remained friends, despite the fact the Jake has taken on a second wife, a much younger woman (Lake Bell). Things get, well, complicated, when, while attending the college graduation of their son, sparks fly over dinner and they end up having a full-blown affair. Added to the mix is a divorced architect named Adam (Steve Martin), who has fallen hard for Jane while being hired to remodel her kitchen.

Tough to gauge this film’s chances, given such terrific competition. Meryl is still Meryl, who seems to wring hits from every role she plays, either critical or otherwise. After her terrific portrayal of Julia Child in Julie & Julia earlier this year, her career – and her following – have never been higher, and Alec Baldwin, after toiling in obscurity for a very long time, has undergone a career resurgence thanks to his role on the hit TV comedy 30 Rock. This is bound to be the last pure adult comedy of this quality for a very long time, and that is something to take into consideration.

It’s Complicated is rated R (like anyone under 17 would really be drawn to this film anyway), and though it is debuting on fewer screens than Avatar, Alvin or Sherlock, I expect far, far better numbers than with the woeful Did You Hear About the Morgans? Let’s say, $18 million in its first three days (good enough for 4th place), en route to five Top 5 points, perhaps one PTA, and a User Rating in the low 6’s (it’s at 6.5 right 232 votes right now). For $15 in Ultimate, that may be a bit steep to take. But movies like this often have good legs, and $16 in Box Office may just be worth it given its sparse competition in January.

On the PTA front, it’s an equally difficult call. With Nine and Up in the Air going wide, and The Lovely Bones expanding to the point where it’s no longer a PTA threat, the door seems to be open for a limited-release feature to step through the door and snatch the crown away from the big boys. But whether The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus is game enough to step through that door is still, at this time, unknown.

It has all the ingredients: an all-star cast, a well-known director, a mind-blowing trailer, and an actor making his swan song following his untimely death and a posthumous Oscar. I am, of course, speaking of Heath Ledger, who won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor for his mesmerizing portrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight. One would that his very last performance would be equally noteworthy, but the jury remains out.

If you remember, Ledger died on January 22, 2008, just after Gilliam had started production. His death almost ended the project right there, but Gilliam, undaunted, decided to cast some of Ledger’s closest friends as other versions of his character, friends who are no slouches themselves: Johnny Depp, Jude Law and Colin Farrell.

The plot: Dr. Parnassus (Christopher Plummer), a 1000-year-old man who leads a traveling carnival troupe, offers audience members a chance to transcend reality through his magical mirror. He is able to do this because of a deal he made with the devil (deliciously played by Tom Waits), who has come to collect on the contract by targeting Parnassus’s 16-year-old daughter Valentina (Lily Cole). In order to rescue her, a mysterious outsider named Tony (Ledger and friends) must journey through a myriad of parallel worlds to save her.

I have loved some of Gilliam’s past works, from his days in Monty Python and on in such films as Time Bandits, The Adventures of Baron Munchausen and Twelve Monkeys. I want Dr. Parnassus to be equally good, but early reviews seem to be equal parts good and equal parts bad.

As I said, this being Ledger’s last film ever, it could be a considerable draw if it goes wide. At this time, I do not know how many theaters will be showing it this weekend, and that is a vital part of the puzzle when picking something like this. If it’s more than 20, I’d avoid it. If it’s less than 10, I would snap it up. A Single Man and possibly Alvin and Sherlock are really its only competition. For $9 in Ultimate, you could very well end up with back-to-back PTA winners (or not). $4 in Box Office is a little dicey, since there is no telling that if it does go wide, just how wide it will go. By the time it and The Lovely Bones will be shown everywhere, January will be in full swing, with movies like Daybreakers, The Book of Eli and The Spy Next Door vying for your post-holiday petty cash.


My predictions for the weekend of December 25-27, 2009:

1. Avatar - $44 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel - $36 million ($51 million 5-day)
3. Sherlock Holmes - $27 million
4. It’s Complicated - $18 million
5. Up in the Air - $13 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll devote a paragraph or three to the only film scheduled to come out on New Year’s Day, that being Case 39, a horror/thriller starring Renee Zellweger, Bradley Cooper and Ian McShane. I’ll also reveal my Top 10 Most Anticipated Films of 2010 (Jan-Apr), since I will definitely have the room.

Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a very Merry Christmas. I thank all of you who stuck with me, and this place, throughout this whole year. I truly hope that 2010 will be our best year ever, and that by this time next year, our community will have grown fivefold, and statues will be erected in our honor. (Well, maybe not that last one, but a man can dream. Grin.)

Later!

[undeadmonkey]

I think you're underestimating Sherlock Holmes, I think we'll be seeing a close battle between Avatar and Holmes with both grossing around $50M

[Buscemi]

Avatar and Sherlock Holmes in way split their audiences. Meanwhile, Alvin and The Chipmunks is the only new family film out and therefore will probably take the top spot despite the Wednesday opening.

[Geezer]

Its the only family movie out? What happened to Princess and the Frog, The Blind Side, and even A Christmas Carol.

[Buscemi]

I wasn't really thinking about The Princess and The Frog but it kind of looks like that the target audience has seen it already (a 50% second week drop isn't very promising). Meanwhile, A Christmas Carol is tailing off and The Blind Side isn't really a family film.

[Buscemi]

Opening day for Alvin and The Chipmunks: $18.8 million. The twelfth biggest Wednesday opening ever.

[Shrykespeare]

Wow. Anyone thing Alvin can beat Avatar for #1 this weekend?

And wait... BOM still has Lovely Bones in only 3 theaters... wasn't it supposed to expand this week?

[Geezer]

I think Alvin will beat Avatar, and I think Sherlock will as well, but its less likely.

[undeadmonkey]

Wow, has it happened before where there were 3 films that made over $50M in one weekend?

[Buscemi]

Sherlock Holmes won't open that high, Monkey.

[W]

I've been pretty certain Alvin would win this weekend since I guess the first time I saw the release dates.

[Geezer]

Yeah I never really thought that would be in doubt.

[J.I.]

But it definately is in doubt now. I would be suprised if it got higher than third this weekend.

[Buscemi]

I wouldn't take the Thursday drop seriously. It was Christmas Eve and theatres close early (every movie drops on this day due to this). Also, families simply don't go to the movies on Christmas Eve.

[Shrykespeare]

Yeah, you should have seen the crowds today. Parking was a mess. Don't know how Alvin did, but Sherlock Holmes was capacity.