SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/17/12

[silversurfer19]

I can only guess maybe people didn't know it was out already, or maybe the no.1 choice for the day was The Vow for girls, Safe House for guys. Maybe we'll see a pick up at the weekend when most will have already seen those two movies as a priority... But to have a PTA similar to Star Wars - a kids movie that was never going to succeed on Valentine's Day is awful.

[W]

They said there was only one showing per theater as well instead of the usual 4-5 (at my theater). By that logic, it was actually in 1/4 to 1/5 of the theaters, so the PTA was more $2000-2500, as long as I'm not screwing something up.

[Buscemi]

A comparable preview to This Means War would Letters to Juliet back in 2010. However, that one did $700 PTA in nearly 1,700 fewer theatres. But, Letters to Juliet was a Sunday afternoon preview while This Means War was a Tuesday night preview.

When I did an estimate of people that attended the Letters to Juliet preview per theatre, it measured at 94 people per showing (thought I used an average price instead of a matinee pricing, so it could have been more). Assuming that the average evening price is $9, This Means War's previews only managed 56 people per show.

Right now, This Means War is looking like a sub $20 million four-day but it could dip to sub $15 million four-day.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

The Tuesday gross for This Means War is not counting towards Chronicle, by the way...

[W]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/02/the-vow ... g-big-big/

"...grosses would be included in Friday's numbers..."

I read the same article earlier today and I swear I saw it was included in Chronicles' grosses, which seemed low for the two combined anyway.

[Buscemi]

This week's theatre counts:

This Means War - 3,189
Ghost Rider 2 - 3,174 (the first one opened in 3,619 theatres five years ago)
The Secret World of Arrietty - 1,522
Undefeated - 5

Next week:

Act of Valor - 3,000
Good Deeds - 2,000
Gone - 2,000
Wanderlust - 1,900

[Brockster]

Ghost Rider 2 - 3,174 (the first one opened in 3,619 theatres five years ago)

Wow, that was already 5 years ago? Damn, where does the time go.

I'm quite surprised by the release platform for Act of Valor...I would have expected low 2000's at the most. Wanderlust and Gone look DOA...not quite sure what to make of Good Deeds yet, but I just can't see it breaking out...not enough theaters, no Madea in the movie.

[Buscemi]

Act of Valor's marketing campaign has been great thus far (trailer placement with hits such as Immortals, Red Tails and Safe House, major ad releases on Veteran's Day and the Super Bowl, a tie-in with Battlefield 3 and a lot of theatre advertising). And word of mouth from the advance screenings has been very positive.

[Geezer]

It's going to be a must-own film.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Battle lines have been drawn.

I KNOW Act of Valor will flop. An opening of $14M (at number 2, behind Tyler Perry's newest grab and ahead of Aniston's bomb) and a total of about $30M. I would consider that a flop, especially since Relativity bought it for $13M and has spent $30M so far on marketing, according to Deadline.

They won't break even. If it reaches $43M total, I'll eat my own face.

[Geezer]

It will make 50 million.

[transformers2]

Judging from the showing I went to last night, Ghost Rider tanked. I went to a 7:15 show and there was at the most 25 people there. That being said, I could be way off, there really wasn't really anybody at the theater I go to last night.

[W]

Battle lines have been drawn.

I KNOW Act of Valor will flop. An opening of $14M (at number 2, behind Tyler Perry's newest grab and ahead of Aniston's bomb) and a total of about $30M. I would consider that a flop, especially since Relativity bought it for $13M and has spent $30M so far on marketing, according to Deadline.

They won't break even. If it reaches $43M total, I'll eat my own face.

For us, if the naysayers are saying $30 M and it's only $6, I'd take that all day long. I'm looking closer to an 8 or 10x. Add a handful of T5, probably a decent (though not great) IMDb, and a couple PTA as a minimum (I think it'll win next weekend, just look at the number of theaters) and that's at least an A grade. The only question is how many pluses Shryke is going to put next to it.

[W]

Deadline (FRI/4-day)

1. The Vow 7.1/29 M
2. Safe House 6.5/26 M
3. Journey 2 4.4/26 M
4. Ghost Rider 7/25 M
5. This Means War 5.1/18 M

[Brockster]

So glad I had the Vow on all my slates...wish I would have picked Safe House in more than just a couple.