SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/17/12

[Shrykespeare]

(Disclaimer: I am writing this on a Saturday because tomorrow (Sunday) I will be leaving with my wife to spend five days in Las Vegas. It is doubtful that I will have any opportunity to use the Internet during that time. Therefore, the numbers that I am quoting are based solely on weekend projections – based from Friday’s estimates – than from Sunday’s estimates, which are more accurate. If the numbers I quote turn out to be off, please forgive me.)

It’s just amazing… 2012 just keeps on rolling, and showing no signs of stopping. Four new films debuted this weekend, and all four broke the $20 million plateau in their first three days. The Vow opened huge with a whopping $40 million, just a hair ahead of Denzel Washington’s latest action-drama Safe House. Even the 3D release of The Phantom Menace and adventure film Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (two films over-CGI’ed out the wazoo) did well, copping about $24 million apiece.

The first film debuting this week will be This Means War (Fox), which is actually sneak previewing in 2,600 theaters this Tuesday (Valentine’s Day) before expanding slightly to 3,100 theaters on Friday. Directed by Joseph “McG” Nichol (Charlie’s Angels, Terminator Salvation), the film stars Chris Pine (Star Trek), Tom Hardy (Warrior) and Reese Witherspoon (Legally Blonde).

Pine and Hardy play the roles of Foster and Tuck, two CIA agents who are not only partners but best friends as well. When they discover that they are, coincidentally, both dating a woman named Lauren (Witherspoon), that friendship is put to the test. And before you can say “misappropriation of government resources”, they are both pulling out all the stops to put the kibosh on the other’s relationship. Chelsea Handler, Angela Bassett, Abigail Spencer and Til Schweiger co-star.

I will admit that there is a whimsical quality to the premise, which reminds me of True Lies in several aspects. I’m not sure why an action movie is going wide on a Tuesday, even if it IS Valentine’s Day, a day that, the last time I checked, people and kids did not have the day off. And because This Means War has a three-day jump on the weekend, its weekend numbers may suffer as a result of the early debut.

This Means War will run you $16 in both the February Ultimate and Box Office leagues. For that, however, I envision only two Top 5 points (four, tops), no PTA, and a $18 million OW on its way to $44 million. With so many films breaking out, it’s tough to compete, and while I don’t think This Means War will tank, it’s certainly not worth its price tag.




It was exactly five years ago that Ghost Rider (to the week) debuted in theaters with an impressive $45 million, and even though the fact that the film’s protagonist, despite being the “world’s darkest hero”, is pretty much a third-string name in the Marvel Universe, the film raced out to $115 million overall. That film, which was directed by Mark Steven Johnson, is the only one outside of the National Treasure movies to go blockbuster for teflon-coated leading man Nicolas Cage.

Johnson has vacated the big chair for the sequel, entitled Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (Sony/Columbia), to the directorial duo of Mark Neveldine and Brian Taylor, the driving force behind such dubious action films as Gamer and the two Crank films. Ghost Rider easily has more appeal to the masses than any film they’ve ever done before… one could even say that this film may do for Neveldine/Taylor what the Sherlock Holmes films did for Guy Ritchie. Maybe not to that lofty extent, but perhaps just a level of respectability they’ve not had before. (I said “perhaps”, so don’t hold me to that.) This film is also the second one to be released under the “Marvel Knights” banner, the first being 2008’s godawful Punisher: War Zone. Truly, there is nowhere to go but up for all parties involved.

Cage will be reprising his role as Johnny Blaze, a motorcycle daredevil who, in the first installment, was tricked into selling his soul to the Devil. The price was that, in the presence of evil, he would become possessed by a flame-skulled demon who would punish the wicked by turning the sin against the sinner. The film ended with Johnny vowing to use his abilities against the Devil himself. In this chapter, Johnny finds himself allied with the leader of a group of rebel monks (Idris Elba) in order to save a young boy from becoming the Antichrist, a consequence that could spell doom for all of mankind.

Spirit of Vengeance is the first of four comic-book superhero flicks that will grace theaters this year, and I daresay that it is by far the weakest as far as potential. (The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises should break $300 million in their sleep.) That doesn’t mean it’s a bad pick for this particular season, however. It is priced at $16 in the February Ultimate leagues and $18 in Box Office, and for that price, I predict eight Top 5 points, four PTA, a Rating somehwere around 6.0 and $84 million. It has an outside shot at $100 million, but despite a 3,000-theater platform, there are just too many things going against it. I would still consider taking it, though.




The third wide-release film debuting this Friday is The Secret World of Arrietty (Buena Vista), and when I say “wide”, I barely mean it, as it is only set to bow in about 1,300 locations. It is the latest animated film from the Japanese Studio Ghibli, who are one of the few studios internationally to still do all of their animation by hand and not with computers. They have created many popular, critically-acclaimed, award-winning films in the past, including Spirited Away, Princess Mononoke and Howl’s Moving Castle, among others. Hayao Miyazaki, the man who spawned all of the above titles and many more, is also the man who wrote the screenplay for Arrietty, which has been re-dubbed in English with an English soundtrack, which is also the norm for Studio Ghibli Films.

Taking place in western Tokyo, the story revolves around a group of teeny-tiny people known as “borrowers”, who live in the recesses of people’s homes and pilfer tiny objects that most people wouldn’t even notice were missing. It is their #1 rule that they remain hidden from sight, a rule that a young girl named Arrietty (Bridgit Mendler) inadvertently breaks when she is seen by a boy named Shawn (David Henrie). Against all odds (and the vast different in height), the two become friends, much to the chagrin of Arrietty’s parents (real-life couple Amy Poehler and Will Arnett). Shawn’s family, however, may not be so open-minded if the borrowers’ existence is revealed…

These films tend to be very picturesque, a tribute to the animators who pour their heart and soul into it. However, not a single one of them has ever really broken out at the U.S. box office, and Arrietty will certainly not be the first. With only 1,300 theaters showing it, and with all of its competition doing so well, I find it nearly impossible to believe that it will even crack the Top 5 at all.

For good reason, Arrietty is priced at only $6 in both February leagues. If you choose to invest in it, I think you will get no Top 5 points, no PTA, $15 million in total receipts and a very respectable Rating of 7.7 (which is unlikely to change). Producing in one out of four categories is not nearly enough to recommend it, so I can only really do so if you can squeeze it into your Bankrupts slates.




There’s nothing more uplifting than a real-life underdog story, and that certainly applies to the subject matter of this week’s only limited-release, a documentary entitled Undefeated (The Weinstein Company), which just happens to be one of the five nominees for Best Documentary Feature at this year’s Oscars. Directors Daniel Lindsay and T.J. Martin took to the streets of inner-city Memphis, Tennessee, to chronicle the story of the Manassas High School football team of 2009. This school, whose football program was one of the losingest in the history of sports – they had not won a playoff game in the school’s 110-year history and had not even won a GAME in fourteen years – into a bona fide winner.

This amazing turnaround was thanks to coach Bill Courtney, who, much like the film Gridiron Gang, had to pull together a group of inner-city teenage boys who came from families and neighborhoods with just about every major problem you could name: gangs, drugs, violence, death, poverty, despair, the whole nine yards. What they did… well, the title pretty much gives that away.

There are not many reviews at RT for Undefeated, but those that are have been mostly positive (5/6 so far). It’s an underdog story… not all that complicated. It will debut in five theaters this Friday, and for the bargain-basement price of $2, you can get a title that could get you anywhere from two to seven PTA points. Documentaries are hit-or-miss, but with so few PTA picks coming out this month, this little title could just turn into gold. (And don’t worry too much about the film’s current Rating of 5.2… I’d wager that will go up significantly once the film is released.)




My predictions for the weekend of February 17-19, 2012:

1. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance - $32 million
2. The Vow - $22 million
3. Safe House - $19 million
4. This Means War - $18 million
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $13 million
6. Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace 3D - $12 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out February with five new films, all of which hope to keep the amazing streak of 2012 going: Good Deeds, the latest drama from director/actor Tyler Perry; Wanderlust, a comedy starring Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston; Gone, a thriller starring Amanda Seyfried; Act of Valor, a modern-day war drama starring Roselyn Sanchez, Nestor Serrano and some real-life soldiers; and, in limited release, Albanian drama The Forgiveness of Blood.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Freddie Highmore (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory) (20 on 2/14)
Lou Diamond Phillips (Young Guns) (50 on 2/17)
Milos Forman (director, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and Amadeus) (80 on 2/18)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I don't recommend taking any of the wide titles (except maybe The Secret World of Arrietty if you didn't take Chronicle or The Woman in Black). This Means War is just a retread of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (which hardly had a plot) while Ghost Rider 2 just looks like a higher-budgeted Punisher: War Zone.

Undefeated is a good pick though, as long as no one confuses it with last year's The Undefeated (which was roundly trashed for being nothing more than an ad for Sarah Palin's failed Presidential campaign).

[Chienfantome]

Are you recommanding to take Arrietty Boosch, really ? Why ?

[Shrykespeare]

It's reverse psychology, Chien. Boosh wants us to take it so he can surge ahead.

BWAAHAAHAAA!

[Chienfantome]

That can only be that, Shryke, indeed

[silversurfer19]

I saw This Means War last night at the NZ premiere, and I'd say it was the kind of movie which will be perfect for date nights, so I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see decent numbers for it, with possibly strong holds too. It's not really an action movie per se, there are sequences of action littered throughout the film, but it is much more of a romantic comedy, and one that would appeal to both guys and girls much in the same way The Charlie's Angels film did. There were plenty of laughs from the audience (which was packed to the brim - though I suppose that's to be expected at a premiere) and everyone came out pretty happy. Not that its flawless. though I'll get into that more on another thread. What I'm saying though is this may be the kind of movie which can at least match the big hitters of last weekend, and even though it opens on a Tuesday for most, by the weekend this will probably be the perfect date movie for anyone who hasn't seen it.

[W]

I have no clue what's going to happen this next weekend. I just wanted to say that I'm going to Vegas for a few days at the end of March.

[Buscemi]

Are you recommanding to take Arrietty Boosch, really ? Why ?

See the note I put after I said that.

[Chienfantome]

The note concerning Chronicle and The Woman in black, Boosch ? I still don't understand your recommendation...

[Buscemi]

If you missed those two, this is something you could take. Ponyo did okay numbers in a small release and with this one being based on a popular book series, this could do $25-30 million.

[silversurfer19]

I think that would be a real stretch, $15m seems much more likely. I guess anything is possible though, especially with virtually every movie exceeding expectations so far this year.

[Buscemi]

Ponyo did $18 million in fewer theatres. Though of course, Miyazaki directed that one (The Secret World of Arrietty was only co-written and produced by him). Also, The Secret World of Arrietty has been marketed better and has a better release date.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Way too high on Ghost Rider, way too low on This Means War.

Arrietty is about right, nobody is expecting this to do anything. And it won't.

And I don't think This Means War is OPENING on Tuesday, it's just being sneaked on Tuesday. Meaning it will playing on Tuesday, and then not again until Friday. I think it's actually a good move, people will see it if they already saw The Vow and spread WOM for the weekend.

[Buscemi]

Last time I checked, awareness and tracking was very low on This Means War. Witherspoon isn't the name she used to be and neither male lead is a proven draw (besides, Pine and Hardy should have been getting better projects by now instead of going the Emile Hirsch path and almost disappearing). Also, a very wide sneak preview will not help the numbers. The last movie I remember getting such a wide sneak was School for Scoundrels (1,500 theatres a week before release) and that was a disaster at the box office.

And Arrietty will do better than $15 million total. Ponyo did $18 million total in almost 400 fewer theatres and almost no marketing. This one has had much better marketing than Ponyo.

[W]

It'll do better than Ponyo because of the marketing. I don't think it'll do to much better, though. From the trailers you can tell that it's dubbed and people really aren't into that.