SPEARE'S TIPS - The films of 12/21/11 to 12/25/11

[Buscemi]

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is tracking better with women now due to an improved marketing push on morning talk shows (Daniel Craig has been hitting all of the circuits), just in time for the Tuesday night screenings.

Meanwhile, Sony plans to go forward with back-to-back sequels (similar to the made-for-TV sequels to the original film) with or without Fincher (Fincher isn't signed on for a sequel but I don't expect him to due to a planned remake of 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea for Disney in the works). However, Sony will need a big gross to break even (a good start would be to break Scream 2's record for the biggest December opening for an R-rated film).

Mission: Impossible's wide tracking is still very high while Tintin is the same as before.

[Chienfantome]

I know it's hard to compare the results in different countries, but MI4 has been out (wide) for almost a week now in France, and it's the least successful of the franchise for now...

[numbersix]

In France and Spain it didn't do as well, but in many other countries (South Korea, Australia, Germany, Russia, etc) it earned more than MI3.

I got a feeling this will be the film of the Christmas Holidays...

[W]

In France and Spain it didn't do as well, but in many other countries (South Korea, Australia, Germany, Russia, etc) it earned more than MI3.

I got a feeling this will be the film of the Christmas Holidays...

...I hope not...

What person seriously cares about MI:4? It's the fourth in the franchise, I've seen the first three, and I can't even recall Tom Cruise's character's (or any other's) name. I assume most of America is like that as well. I know it's doing will in it's opening in IMAX, but I just don't see something so bland with no sizable fanbase breaking out. If it does break out, I'll NEED to figure out why, because it will confound the Hell out of me. I thought pretty much the same with Sherlock but was convinced by a ton of people that I was wrong.

I could see TinTin (cartoon, Spielberg, Jackson, good trailer, some fan base), Tattoo (Fincher, big fan base, foreign language version did fairly well in the US), or Zoo (great reviews, family film, Marley) break out and understand why, but not MI:4.

It's Ethan something, isn't it?

[Chienfantome]

It's funny cause I didn't even put Tintin on a lot of slates, because I'm still wary of it potential in the US, and I know it has more chances of doing nothing special at the box-office than breaking out, but I would be so delighted if it succeeded I wouldn't even care about the repercussions on the game

(yes, it's Ethan Hunt, W )

[numbersix]

W, I think you have to judge the perception audiences have of MI4. Yes, 3 was considered to be underwhelming, but the action-packed trailer of MI4 seems to have really convinced a lot of doubters. Opening during Christmas certainly helps, as audiences love a bit of escapism during the holidays (though Dragon Tattoo could prove that they also want dark and distrubing too).

Tintin is a complete mystery to me. It's made over 200m worldwide already, but I don't know if it will translate to US audiences. It being a Spileberg and getting good reviews will certainly help its legs, but whether it will open high I honestly don't know. My gut is that it will do well now that Alvin is failing, but We Bought a Zoo could have an impact on Tintin's success.

[W]

I'd say that Sherlock had a better trailer, better star of the moment, more loved characters, and better pretty much everything else I can think of and it opened sub-$40 M. And that's coming off a first film, not a third from a franchise that no one really cares about. I'm just thinking perhaps that the IMAX numbers are "There's finally a huge movie on the IMAX!" and "It's kind of like seeing the movie before it actually comes out!" numbers.

And we could be hyping up We Bought a Zoo to horribly high expectations. I'm really not sure if it's going to do extremely well or not well whatsoever. I haven't seen many ads for it and haven't heard much chatter, but then again I don't watch many commercials. Same thing with Dragon Tattoo (dark toned) and Tintin ("What the eff is a Tintin?" - The United States of America). There's a theme of uncertainty more this Holiday season than most, I think.

I've put my money on Dragon Tattoo since April, so it'd be stupid for me to switch horses now.

[Buscemi]

The numbers in Quebec have been excellent on Tintin (the second week drop there was just 9% and its opening weekend was one of the year's best in the province).

When Avatar opened, did we ask what an Avatar was? Or when Ratatouille came out? Though Tintin isn't well-known in the US, Herge's stories do have a small but strong following. And Spielberg has been trying to get the film made for almost three decades (in fact, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade was originally greenlighted as a Tintin film). With that in mind, expect a decent result at the box office.

[Chienfantome]

I think the opening of Tintin won't be huge, but the great reviews and the great word of mouth it's gonna get will help it be a success on the long run. Especially more when you see how poor January looks.

[numbersix]

Well that's to be expected in Quebec, where ties to France are stronger than anywhere else in Canada.

As for We Bought a Zoo, I totally didn't see Marley and Me coming, so part of me wonders if this could do the same.

But yeah, W, I'm very uncertain about how this weekend will fare.


As an interesting comparison, the last time Xmas Day fell on a Saturday was 2005: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =51&p=.htm

King Kong won the weekend with 21m (2nd weekend, down 58%), The Lion, The Witch was 2nd with 20m (3rd weekend),
Fun with Dick and Jane opened to 14m for the 3 days, then Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (both opened on the Wednesday) with 9mil.
The Ringer made 5m over the 3-day weekend, Munich made 4m (though it opened in only 500 theatres).
Wolf Creek and Rumour has it both opened on the 25th and made 2.8m and 3.5m respectively.

[Chienfantome]

That history doesn't bode very well, although the films look much stronger this year than they were in 2005.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, I would put the current releases over the top 10 from 2005 any time. Narnia was awesome, King Kong was overblown, and all of the debuts that weekend were fairly weak.

Dick and Jane had its moments, and Munich was a good story, but neither one really had huge potential (like, $150M+). (Yes, Dick and Jane squeezed out $110M, but I'm basing that on fairly weak competition in the comedy department, because Cheaper By the Dozen 2 was just a bad movie.)

[Ron Burgundy]

Well, after altering my slates all year long, more than i have any other year, 2011 has given me more headaches than ever before. And this weekend is no different, first sherlock doesnt achieve, then MI4 comes out with a suckerpunch, tintin is animated but it could be beguilling, dragon tatoo is a total mystery to me and we bought a zoo is just thrown in there to put a spanner in the works.

Glad im not in any of the leagues anymore haha.

And yeah, 05 was crap.

[Buscemi]

Still no Tuesday numbers on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo but a crowd report posted on HSX from a Carson City, Nevada theatre mentioned that only 12 people attended the 7:00 pm showing.

If there are reports similar to this one, we could have our flop of the Christmas season.

Edit: a crowd report in Long Island was much more encouraging, as a 10:30 pm screening there sold out. It looks the film will perform similar to The Social Network: big on the coasts and the cities, a dud in other places.

[Buscemi]

Tuesday box office on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo: $1.6 million in 2,600 theatres. By comparison, Mission: Impossible did $1.1 million in 425 theatres on its Thursday screenings.

Meanwhile, Mission: Impossible added about 1,900 screens Tuesday night and grossed $2 million in Tuesday night shows. Its Tuesday total (including IMAX shows) was $3.7 million.