SPEARE'S TIPS - The films of 12/21/11 to 12/25/11

[Shrykespeare]

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, as expected, easily won this past weekend, but in doing so it came in well under expectations, managing only $40 million in its first three days, only about 2/3 of what many pundits were projecting. The odds that Robert Downey Jr.’s latest titan will reach $200 million now seem very slim. The big winner of the weekend, surprisingly, was Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, which, based on terrific reviews and word-of-mouth, kicked butt at the four-hundred plus IMAX locations where it debuted, scaring up enough dough to not only take third place in the overall box office ($13.6 million) but managed to pull an upset in the PTA category, beating out limited-release films like Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and Carnage in the process.

Ah, Christmas weekend. If you’re a movie buff like me, you’re in a dither about what movie to go see first, because there are so many worthy films debuting in theaters, and that’s not even including the Oscar-bait films that are coming out in limited release! There is just so much going on this weekend, and so many films to talk about, that I am going to have to do something I’ve never done before, and that’s split my column into two parts. Plus, I will be implementing a format change… From now on, I will be inserting the YouTube trailer videos after I talk about each film, and not clustered together at the very end. Let me know if you like the change or whether you preferred it the old way.

First off, my sincerest apologies… originally, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol was supposed to premiere this Wednesday, on December 21st. I knew several weeks ago that the film would be given several hundred sneak-preview showings in IMAX theaters this past Friday, but I wasn’t aware until after I posted my column last week that the date assigned to it for game purposes had changed as well. The bad news is, it doesn’t really matter what I say about the film now, since it’s too late to add it to your slates. If you don’t have it on there already, you’re SOL.

Still, I can’t let a film of this caliber slide by without saying a few words about it, can I? Priced at $21 in Ultimate and $23 in Box Office, it will be expanding to roughly 3,400 theaters this Wednesday. However, given that quite a few people who really wanted to see it will have already done so, my original prediction for its opening weekend has diminished. Added to that is the fact that the wide release is taking place on a Wednesday, and on probably the most crowded weekend of the entire year. The upswing is, there are no new “big” movies next week and only one the week after that (barely), so seven or eight Top 5 points are probably not out of the realm of possibility.

I won’t go heavily into the plot, since I’m sure most of you know it already and I’ve got a ton of other stuff to talk about as well. Suffice it to say, critics have been over the moon about Ghost Protocol, to the tune of an astounding 95% fresh on RT (only six negative reviews out of 115), which is something I’m betting NO ONE was expecting. For those that chose it (and there were a lot of you), the current Rating (8.1 with about 2,000 votes) will also help you. Let’s hope it measures up in the other categories as well. In all, I predict $18 million for the three-day weekend, and $140 million overall.




The second big film to debut this Wednesday is The Adventures of Tintin, an animated film from Paramount done in the motion-capture style, a style adopted by past films such as The Polar Express, Beowulf and A Christmas Carol. Based on the comic book series penned by Belgian author Hergé in the first half of the last century, the movie is an amalgam of three of the original stories (The Crab With the Golden Claws, The Secret of the Unicorn and Red Rackham’s Treasure). It is directed by Hollywood legend Steven Spielberg (who also has another film, War Horse, debuting this weekend, which I’ll get to in a bit) and produced by another Hollywood legend, Peter Jackson. Those two together? That’s a hell of a collaboration!

Tintin (voiced by Jamie Bell), for those not in the know, is a young European journalist who, while browsing in an outdoor market with his faithful dog Snowy, happens across a model of an old sailing vessel called The Unicorn, a vessel that was lost at sea centuries before. Before he knows it, Tintin becomes embroiled in a web of intrigue surrounding the model, which just might contain a clue to the resting place of the actual ship, where a fabulous treasure lies just waiting to be salvaged. Along the way, Tintin makes the acquaintance of gruff seaman Captain Haddock (Andy Serkis), who just happens to be a descendant of The Unicorn’s original captain.

This film, with a European setting, a largely European cast (which also includes Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, Cary Elwes and Toby Jones), premiered all over Europe two months ago. In seven weeks, it has amassed nearly $250 million, which is quite impressive. Whether it will do that will in the U.S. is doubtful, but, unlike every other motion-captures film that came before it, there seems to be an engaging story within it; it would also appear to be the last animated movie (in its original run) to be put into theaters until February.

The Adventures of Tintin will run you $20 in the both the Ultimate and Box Office leagues. I don’t believe it will have enough to beat Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows in its second week, but I think it has an excellent chance to take the #2 spot. It, too, has gotten great reviews and has a solid Rating (7.8 with over 20,000 votes), so I think it’s worth that price tag. I predict a $20 million weekend, along with nine Top 5 points, several PTA and $115 million overall. Not too shabby.

(Quirky coincidence #1: Simon Pegg appears in both The Adventures of Tintin and Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol.)




There’s no doubt about it: David Fincher is one of the hottest directors in Hollywood right now. After helming fan favorites such as Se7en and Fight Club, he upped his game even further, spawning the amazingly-reviewed Zodiac, and then followed that up with two films that both won him a Best Director nomination at the Oscars: 2009’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and last year’s The Social Network. I would put it out there that apart from Christopher Nolan, he’s the top director in Hollywood at the moment.

It takes a lot of gumption to follow two Oscar-nominated films with an adaptation that’s still so fresh in everybody’s minds; the Swedish novel The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (by the late Stieg Larsson) was only published six years ago, and translated into English only three years ago. Not only that, it (along with two sequels) were already made into Swedish-language feature films, and they have all enjoyed enormous success around the world. The Swedish Dragon Tattoo, which was filmed on a miniscule budget of $13 million, made over $100 million internationally.

The story is a very dark one, so perhaps its not all that surprising that someone like Fincher would take a shine to it. The male protagonist of the film is Mikael Blomqvist (Daniel Craig), the publisher and co-owner of a political magazine in Sweden, who was just recently accused of libel in court and lost, and soon faces jail time. Before that, however, he is hired by an elderly man named Henrik Vanger (Christopher Plummer), who wants Mikael to bring his keen insight to discovering what happened to his great-niece Harriet, who disappeared four decades earlier. He is aided – reluctantly at first – by Lisbeth Salander (The Social Network’s Rooney Mara), a hacker-slash-surveillance expert with a very disturbing past of her own.

I wasn’t sure that an English-language remake of this film so soon after the original was a good idea when I heard about it, especially with a relative unknown like Mara playing such a crucial role. However, from the reviews I’ve read, I’ve been worried for nothing. The reviews so far are nearly universally outstanding (33/35 positive on RT, or 95%), praising everything about this film, from the direction to the tone to the score to the supporting cast to especially Mara herself, who just garnered herself a Golden Globe nom. How about them apples?

In an October release last year, The Social Network nearly topped $100 million despite its rather dry subject matter. From all I’ve heard about it, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo certainly deserves to achieve blockbuster status, but it’s certainly not a sure thing. On the one hand, both book-readers and movie aficionados are already very familiar with the subject matter, and this English version looks, in many ways, to be an improvement on both the book (I’ve heard from many people that have attempted to read it but just couldn’t get through it) and the Swedish version. There are only two details that I could see hurting this film’s chances in the long run. Firstly, there is the story itself, a story that involves a lot of brutality, including murder and rape… the R rating is well and truly earned. And secondly, there is the running time, which is over two and a half hours. A running time that long ultimately means fewer showings, and, ultimately, less money taken in.

For a price tag of $16 (in both leagues), The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo just might be worth the gamble. Fincher is on a serious roll right now, and if the accolades and nominations continue to roll in, it could have serious legs before all is said and done. Despite only debuting in 2,800 theaters, I predict an OW of $19 million, on its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA and $90 million. The Rating (currently at 7.4) will not drop more than a few tenths, and it might even go up. Even so, it would seem to be a better pick in Box Office than Ultimate.

(Quirky coincidence #2: In the Swedish version, the characters Mikael and Lisbeth were played by Swedish actors Michael Nyqvist and Noomi Rapace. Nyqvist just happens to play the villain in Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, and Rapace made her big English-language film debut this past weekend as the female lead in Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. She will be appearing next in Ridley Scott’s Alien prequel, Prometheus.)



Continued below…

[Shrykespeare]

So that takes care of Wednesday’s films. The one and only major film debuting on Friday, December 23rd, is We Bought a Zoo, the seventh outing for director Cameron Crowe and his first since Elizabethtown underwhelmed in 2005. The man behind the camera for films like Say Anything…, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous is back for this comedy-drama from Fox, which is based on the memoirs of author Benjamin Mee.

The story, basically, tells of how Mee used his life savings to buy the Dartmoor Zoological Park, a rundown zoo in the English countryside. He uses this opportunity not only to save the zoo’s nearly 200-strong population of exotic animals from destruction but to rebuild his own life, a plan that delights his very young daughter Rosie (Maggie Elizabeth Jones) but seeks to further alienate his teenage son Dylan (Colin Ford). Thomas Haden Church, Scarlet Johansson and Elle Fanning also co-star.

We Bought a Zoo is getting a respectable release platform (3,000 theaters), and it is the only big film coming out on the Friday, but, unlike pretty much every other heavy hitter that is this film’s competition (except for Chipwrecked), the reviews have been… lukewarm, to say the least. RT currently has it at 58% Fresh (on 7/12 reviews), and the IMDb Rating is 6.8. I like Matt Damon, but with so much going on, something has to come out on the short end of the stick, and We Bought a Zoo looks like it. It may do respectably well over time, but I doubt it will earn more than one or two Top 5 points (if that), along with no PTA, and perhaps $75 million if it’s lucky. But for game purposes, it would seem to be way overpriced at $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office).




After so much space spent on wide-release films (and we’re not even done yet!), it’s high time we mentioned a limited-release film, and debuting in three theaters on Friday is In the Land of Blood and Honey, which marks the directorial debut of actress Angelina Jolie (which she also wrote and co-produced). It is a love story set against the backdrop of the Bosnian war of the 1990’s, an idea that came into Jolie’s head when she visited that country as a U.N. goodwill ambassador.

The story centers on Danijel (Goran Kostić) and Ajla (Zana Marjanović), two people on opposite sides of the brutal conflict. Danijel is a soldier fighting for the Serbs, and Ajla is a Bosnian woman being held captive in the camp that he oversees. Having been in a previous relationship prior to the war, their bond is tested to the limits as the chaos that surrounds them grows ever darker.

I just don’t know. I mean, it’s good to see Jolie spreading her artistic resume out a bit, and from what I’ve read, for a first effort, In the Land of Blood and Honey isn’t bad. But “isn’t bad” may not translate to many PTA points on this weekend, if any at all. Love stories set during wartime are often a hard sell even in indie circles (unless the story is written by Nicholas Sparks), but if you want to spend $4 on this title, go for it. I wouldn’t, though.




Steven Spielberg’s name has always carried a lot of clout. Since the 70’s, he has been the visionary behind some of the most beloved films of all time, including Jaws, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial and Jurassic Park, just to name a few. But apart from family fare, sci-fi or action films, he has never shied away from more dramatic, even horrific, subject matter, having won Best Director Oscars for films such as Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan. The last time he wore the director’s hat was for the hugely underwhelming Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and now, he’s back with another period drama, entitled War Horse. It is based on the children’s novel of the same name by author Michael Morpurgo.

Unlike Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, which took place during WWII, War Horse is set in England at the onset of WWI. The story is centered on the friendship between a young man named Albert (Jeremy Irvine, making his big-screen debut) and his horse, Joey. After Joey is sold to the cavalry and shipped to France, Albert enlists for service as well. Over the course of the film, both undergo harrowing, fateful journeys as the Great War rages around them.

There is probably no one that makes war movies that tug at the heartstrings quite as ably as Steven Spielberg. His name is above the title for War Horse, and you’d better believe that those in the mood for a touching, poignant, inspirational film will be interested in seeing this film. Unfortunately, for game purposes, this film has too much going against it. First off, it is debuting on Christmas Day, which is a Sunday, which means it will have all of one day to make its bones against all the film’s I’ve already talked about… I can see no possible way that it will even come close to the Top 5 on its first weekend. It could conceivably sneak in for one or two Top 5 points in forthcoming weekends, but that’s iffy at best. I imagine a opening day of $5 million and about $60 million overall. It may be worth $9 in Box Office, but for $11 in Ultimate? Stay the hell away.

(Quirky coincidence #3: War Horse is directed by Steven Spielberg, whose last big war epic, Saving Private Ryan, starred Tom Hanks and Matt Damon, both of whom have films debuting this weekend.)




Making the least auspicious debut on Christmas weekend is The Darkest Hour, a sci-fi action thriller that is being shoved into 2,200 theaters starting Sunday, including some 3D locations (why???). It is being distributed by Summit Entertainment, whose track record for films not in the Twilight series has been less than impressive.

In this story, five friends decide to visit the snowy climes of Moscow, Russia, together. Not long after they arrive, however, Earth is attacked by alien invasion, who seek to drain the planet of all of its energy as well as to wipe out its population. The five friends must band together with whatever locals they can find to turn the tables on the unseen aliens, whose technology is vastly superior to our own. Emile Hirsch, Olivia Thirlby and Rachael Taylor star.

Given the time of year and the genre, it’s very easy to look at the trailer for The Darkest Hour and think of last year’s sci-fi disaster Skyline. Which I suppose is apt; it’s sci-fi, with a story chronicling an alien invasion and sporting a largely unknown cast. (At least Battle: Los Angeles had Harvey Dent and the chick from Avatar…) It is the first major film for director Chris Gorak, who served as the art director for notable films such as Tombstone, Fight Club and Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas.

Skyline debuted in mid-November last year and only managed to pull in a measly $21 million. The Darkest Hour will be in even fewer theaters, so I daresay $21 million would be optimistic as far as its potential goes. Will the film itself be as bad as Skyline? Doubtful, since NOTHING could be as bad as that steaming turd of a film. If there’s one thing that makes me want to see this film, it’s the fact that it was produced by Timur Bekmambitov, who directed Wanted in 2008 and produced 9 in 2009 (the latter of which I enjoyed very much.) Plus, the film was shot on location in Moscow, and from what I hear, the set direction is fantastic. That’s about all I can say about this film in the positive, however. For $7 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), I would only take this film in Bankrupts.




The final film up for consideration this week is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. This drama comes to us from Fox and thrice-Oscar-nominated director Stephen Daldry (for Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader), and will be bowing in six theaters this Sunday. It is scheduled to expand nationwide on January 20th.

Where were you on that fateful Tuesday in 2001 when two hijacked planes crashed into the World Trade Center? That horrific day in history is relived through the eyes of ten-year-old boy Oskar Schell (Thomas Horn, making his debut) who tragically lost his father (Tom Hanks) in those attacks. Through flashbacks, we learn how close he was to his father, and when a mysterious key is bequeathed to Oskar, he undergoes a journey across New York to find the lock box that the key opens, for it might be his last connection to his father. Sandra Bullock plays the role of Oskar’s mother, making her first on-screen appearance since winning the Oscar for Best Actress for The Blind Side two years ago.

You’d think that combining a director like Daldry with two proven top-notch actors like Hanks and Bullock would be an instant recipe for success, but that may not be the case. Since Hanks’ character is seen almost always in flashback, and Bullock’s part is relatively small, this film would appear to be mostly Horn’s to carry, and that’s a lot to ask of a young, inexperienced child actor, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented if he did. Plus, the film’s lack of mention in the just-released Golden Globe nominations doesn’t bode well either.

There have been several movies in the last decade set against the backdrop of 9/11, most notably World Trade Center, which managed to pull in $70 million in 2006. And if this movie does take off when it goes wide, it certainly has the ability to get there, but the bad news is that if it does, it won’t reach that plateau until mid-February at the earliest.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will run you $8 in Ultimate leagues and $10 in Box Office. That may seem like a lot now, given that its PTA prospects may be limited when stacked up against all the rest of the Oscar-bait films. It would be a gutsy call, to say the least, to put it on your slates, but if you do, you’ll have to be very patient with it.




My predictions for the weekend of December 23-25, 2011:

1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $23 million
2. The Adventures of Tintin – $20 million
3. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $19 million
4. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $18 milion
5. We Bought a Zoo – $15 million
6. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $13 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, it all ends: 2011, the Super Leagues, and another year of column-writing. The dust from this past week will have barely settled as the final three films of 2011 hit theaters, all in limited release: Pariah, a drama starring Kim Wayans; The Iron Lady, a biopic about former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, starring Meryl Streep in the title role; and A Separation, an Iranian drama that has kicked ass on the festival circuit and is nominated for the Best Foreign Film Oscar.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Corey Haim (The Lost Boys, License to Drive) (40 on 12/23)
Ricky Martin (singer) (40 on 12/24)
Dido (singer) (40 on 12/25)

Later!

[numbersix]

I like the new change, it makes more sense.

Also making sense is your general predictions. With cinemas being closed on Xmas Eve (I think) numbers won't be that high unless you count the Monday.

I do think the positive WoM and the perceived success of MI4 will ensure it'll win the weekend

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $25 milion
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $23 million
3. The Adventures of Tintin – $18 million
5. We Bought a Zoo – $17 million
4. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $17 million
6. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $14 million

Warhorse - $6 for the 1 day
Darkest Hour - $2 for the 1 day

[Buscemi]

Many theatres will be closed on Saturday evening. Afternoons will be open.

As for the weekend, it's hard to predict to be honest. Sherlock and Mission: Impossible will fight for one and two (with Tintin as the likely third) but I don't know how much. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo isn't tracking so hot but should manage fourth.

[numbersix]

Last tracking for Girl I saw had it at higher awareness and interest than Tintin. Are there more recent numbers?

[Buscemi]

Someone on HSX showed a male/female breakdown of the awareness numbers and mentioned that it wasn't tracking well with women (due to Fincher's oversexualized ad campaign). Women are usually the target audience with thrillers and this film is no exception. The male tracking was similar but higher in the all-important "first choice" bracket.

As for Tintin, family films are notoriously hard to track. Some perform way over expectations, others perform under expectations (such as Alvin and the Chipmunks, which has awareness in the 90's).

[numbersix]

Women are the target audience for thrillers? Huh, you learn a new thing every day.

I can understand why women were turned off by the ad campaign (the early posters of a naked Lisbeth were incredibly distasteful considering the themes involved in the story), though I think from the outset it's difficult material anyway.

[Buscemi]

The "women and thrillers" thing comes from Cinemascore. Exit polling on thrillers usually has women representing over 50% of the audience.

[englishozzy]

My prediction;

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $25 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows - $22 million
3. The Adventure of Tintin - $20 million
4. We Bought a Zoo - $16 million
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - $15 million
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $11 million

[transformers2]

My Predictions
1.Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol $32 Mil
2.Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows $23 Mil
3.We Bought A Zoo $22 Mil
4.The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo $18 Mil
5.The Adventures Of Tintin $13 Mil

[Chienfantome]

Tintin only 13 mil Tranny ? You're wrong my friend

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Tintin is dead in the water, it may only be saved by the fact that Alvin & The Chipmunks is probably flopping.

[undeadmonkey]

One of these has to break out and do fantastic, but i can't say which

[Chienfantome]

Tin-tin ! Tin-tin ! (I know it's just the fanboy who thinks it's the best Hollywood film of the year who speaks, but hey, as we say in France, hope keeps you alive)

[Buscemi]

Banks and Tranny hate Tintin for two reasons:

1. It's a family film.

2. It's mo-cap.

Contrary to popular belief, only a few motion capture films have failed. Most audiences seriously don't care about uncanny valley. That's also probably why Nicki Minaj sells so well.