SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/9/11

[Chienfantome]

A dangerous method hold well because there hasn't been any expansion.
Tintin is going to be heavily supported by critics, is both oriented at kids and adults... I believe in it

[Buscemi]

The movie that gets lost in the Holiday shuffle is going to be The Darkest Hour, no question about it. No marketing whatsoever (I have yet to see a single trailer in the theatre) and the Christmas release date was ill-suited for it. Also, Summit's had an awful year with 3-D.

[silversurfer19]

I think that was a forgone conclusion. I also think War Horse may underperform, though it will probably hold well due to its demographic. But then again I thought last year was too crowded for True Grit to do decent, but somehow it found a way. Maybe we won't have a huge breakout over $220m, but more see lots of mid level blockbuster hits.

[Buscemi]

Well, it's hard to find any other film other than The Darkest Hour. Everything else has a chance (and as I've mentioned, not every kid wants to watch another Alvin movie).

[silversurfer19]

Going by the trailer reaction to Alvin when I was at Arthur Christmas, I'm not sure any kids really want to see another Alvin. I reckon six's analysis was correct a little while ago, where it's previous successes has been down to little family alternatives over the Christmas periods, but with plents of options this year, maybe we'll see a downturn. Not a bomb, but nothing above $200m.

[transformers2]

The movie that gets lost in the Holiday shuffle is going to be The Darkest Hour, no question about it. No marketing whatsoever (I have yet to see a single trailer in the theatre) and the Christmas release date was ill-suited for it. Also, Summit's had an awful year with 3-D.

I should have worded that better, I think Tintin will be the major film that gets a lost in the shuffle. I don't think anyone thinks The Darkest Hour will be major .

[numbersix]

Going by the trailer reaction to Alvin when I was at Arthur Christmas, I'm not sure any kids really want to see another Alvin. I reckon six's analysis was correct a little while ago, where it's previous successes has been down to little family alternatives over the Christmas periods, but with plents of options this year, maybe we'll see a downturn. Not a bomb, but nothing above $200m.

Yeah, that's a good point. Yet.... considering this is really for the younger kids, I wonder if We Bought a Zoo is the only other film that could steal its thunder (although it is PG). Tintin could skew a little older (as in 8+, as opposed to Alvin's 4-10 year olds) and Warhorse older still. So it's a question of whether 2 young kids' films can co-exist. I think they can, especially across Janaury when there's pretty much no children's films at all.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

What are these other kiddie options that'll take away from Alvin?

Other than perhaps Tintin, there's nothing else aimed at kids this Christmas (unless Arthur Christmas makes a huge turnaround).

We Bought A Zoo is more family, than kids. I don't know if a parent will chose a Matt Damon dramedy for their children over something tried and true - like those damn Chipmunks.
War Horse is nowhere near being a children's movie, no matter the rating - it's a 2 and 1/2 hour movie about a horse in WWII.

[numbersix]

We Bought A Zoo is more family, than kids. I don't know if a parent will chose a Matt Damon dramedy for their children over something tried and true - like those damn Chipmunks.

So there's no kids in a family?

And plenty of kids went to see Marley and Me, another "dramedy", and a film tha beat its main competition, Bedtime Stories.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I meant, for little kids like 4-6, I don't think many parents will take them to We Bought A Zoo, when Alvin is a cartoon that the parents will know the kids will like.

And when I saw Marley And Me, it was all older women and couples.

[numbersix]

I meant, for little kids like 4-6, I don't think many parents will take them to We Bought A Zoo, when Alvin is a cartoon that the parents will know the kids will like.

And when I saw Marley And Me, it was all older women and couples.

Ah okay, that's an interesting point, especially about Marley and Me. So you think Alvin 3 will do as well as the previous films?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Haha, actually no I don't.

But $190-$200M is about where I think it'll end up, a slight downtick from the first two.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals:

Top 10:
5 points - New Year's Eve, $13.0M
4 points - The Sitter, $9.8M
3 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $7.8M
2 points - The Muppets, $7.0M
1 point - Arthur Christmas, $6.5M
Hugo, $6.1M
The Descendants, $4.4M
Happy Feet Two, $3.7M
Jack and Jill, $3.1M
Immortals, $2.5M

PTA (Oct/Nov):
5 points - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, $77,641
4 points - Young Adult, $38,783
3 points - We Need to Talk About Kevin, $24,587
2 points - A Dangerous Method, $20,025
1 point - The Artist, $18,460

PTA (Dec):
5 points - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, $77,461
4 points - Young Adult, $38,783
3 points - We Need to Talk About Kevin, $24,587
2 points - Shame, $13,496
1 point - New Year's Eve, $3,714

I Melt With You ends up with a PTA of $1,365. W.E. didn't even report.

[Geezer]

People shouldn't take 4-6 year olds to the theater. Its a waste of money. Movies are expensive and those kids aren't old enough to appreciate it. They won't even remember it when they get older. Tell the kid to watch a DVD for the 78th time. They will be just as happy.

[numbersix]

People shouldn't take 4-6 year olds to the theater. Its a waste of money. Movies are expensive and those kids aren't old enough to appreciate it. They won't even remember it when they get older. Tell the kid to watch a DVD for the 78th time. They will be just as happy.

Hah. Believe me, sometimes I want kids to be banned from cinemas, and have their own cineams very far away. But having spoken to a parent about his cinema habits he explained that it's a good way to get them out of the house, and perhaps grant some rest for the other parent/adult family members.

Can't stay in the house all day I guess...

Plus, I still remember seeing Flight of the Navigator in a cinema and being entralled by it... and I was 4 at the time.