SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/9/11

[Shrykespeare]

This past weekend played out as predicted as the pre-Thanksgiving holdovers enjoyed their last few days on top of the Box Office charts. With only four weeks to go in 2011 and a whole horde of potential blockbusters debuting in theaters before then, we are rounding the final turn and beginning the final stretch, the stretch that will determine the victor in the last round of the 2011 Super Leagues. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 won in a walkaway for the third straight week, coming up with just shy of $17 million, significantly ahead of The Muppets, which managed only $11 million in its second weekend after a strong start. Hugo and Arthur Christmas held fairly well, and new debut Shame just barely surpassed The Artist’s second weekend for the PTA crown.

Unlike this past weekend, which only saw the debut of two new titles (both limited-release), this Friday will herald the premiere of seven new titles, two wide and five limited. That’s a lot of ground to cover, so I won’t mince any more words. Here we go!

In February of last year, veteran director Garry Marshall brought to theaters Valentine’s Day, a romantic comedy with a veritable cornucopia of acting talent, all taking part in several separate yet intertwining stories about various stages of love, set against the backdrop of the holiday that is dedicated to love. Valentine’s Day massacred (heh) at the box office, powering to an OW of $56 million on its way to $110 million overall. And now, nearly two years later, Marshall is back with yet another holiday-themed ensemble-cast movie, entitled New Year’s Eve.

I won’t list the plots of the various vignettes that make up this film’s run-time, you can probably discern that on your own from watching the trailer. It is worth mentioning some of the more noteworthy members of the cast, which includes Robert De Niro, Michelle Pfeiffer, Katherine Heigl, Ashton Kutcher, Sarah Jessica Parker, Abigail Breslin, Hilary Swank, Sofia Vergara, Halle Berry, Zac Efron, Jon Bon Jovi, Jessica Biel, Josh Duhamel, Carla Gugino, Chris “Ludacris” Bridges, Alyssa Milano, Seth Meyers, Sienna Miller, and Lea Michele. Not too shabby.

Everyone is comparing New Year’s Eve to Valentine’s Day in every way, and why not? Same director, same format, same huge cast. The question is: can New Year's Eve surpass its predecessor? Well, let’s look at some things that New Year’s Eve has in its favor. Firstly, it’s the first pure romantic comedy to hit theaters since Crazy, Stupid, Love (unless you count What’s Your Number?, which was barely a blip on anyone’s radar), and there won’t be another one for a while. Secondly, New Year’s Eve is debuting several weeks before the blessed event named in its title, which means that it could conceivably avoid the huge drops that Valentine’s Day suffered by debuting on Valentine’s weekend.

For these two reasons, and because the box office race is wide open again this week, it’s pretty much a given that New Year’s Eve will take first place this weekend. But even so, I can’t envision an OW for New Year’s Eve much higher than $25 million, which is less than half of what Valentine’s Day managed. (And I’m being generous, as most Internet pundits are predicting much lower numbers than that.) In all, I expect $83 million, eight Top Five points, two PTA and a Rating around 6.0. For $15 in the December Ultimate leagues ($16 in Box Office), this is a pretty safe pick. Maybe not the best one, but there is almost no chance that it will completely tank.

The other major film this weekend is also a comedy, and it is most assuredly an adult film despite the presence of several small children in it. It is The Sitter, the latest film from Fox Studios and director David Gordon Green, who had a big hit in 2008 with The Pineapple Express but flopped hard earlier this year with Your Highness. The premise is eerily similar to the 1987 film Adventures in Babysitting, a typical 80’s guilty pleasure romp where a beleaguered high school senior (Elisabeth Shue) has to juggle both her personal life, a crisis involving her best friend and three youths charged to her all in the space of one wild and crazy night fraught with mishap and danger. In The Sitter (which is rated R, not PG), the title character is played by ubiquitious comic actor Jonah Hill (last seen in Moneyball).

Hill plays Noah, a college student on suspension who now lives with his mother. After an argument, Noah is forced into taking a babysitting gig, even though he has no rapport whatsoever with children. Like AiB, there are three kids, two boys and one girl. Unlike AiB, however, all three kids are of pre-high-school age: the studios Slater (Max Records), wild child Blithe (Landry Bender) and Mafia-esque exchange student Rodrigo (Kevin Hernandez). The other major difference? The mess that Noah gets into is entirely of his own making (starting with bringing the kids to a party where he can “get some”, if you know what I mean). Before long, Noah and his trio of terrors are on the run from two psychotic drug dealers (Sam Rockwell and J.B. Smoove). Can Noah get the kids back in bed safe and sound? And get some?

Jonah Hill is quite popular, to be sure, but I remain unconvinced that he has enough star power at this point to successfully carry a film on his own. He’s close, but I don’t think he’s quite there yet. For that reason, I’m only going to predict a $10 million OW for The Sitter, on its way to five Top 5 points, zero PTA, a Rating in the mid-6’s and $35 million. Comedies tend to have good legs, and like I said earlier, the next month-plus will have a dearth of comedies. I’m just not sure the stats that I mentioned are worth spending $11 on (in either league).

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s bevy of limited-release films:

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy ($8 Ult, $7 BO) – This film is an adaptation of the bestselling 1974 British spy novel of the same name by John le Carre (which was also made into a 1979 movie starring Sir Alec Guinness). This version stars reigning Best Actor Colin Firth, along with Gary Oldman, rising star Tom Hardy, John Hurt, Toby Jones and Mark Strong.

Taking place during the Cold War of the mid-20th century, the film centers on disgraced spy George Smiley (Oldman), who is re-hired by his government to determine the identity of a double agent who has infiltrated the British Secret Intelligence Service (aka MI6) and is suspected of working directly for the Soviets. Director Tomas Alfredsson (Let the Right One In) is at the helm, which is reason enough to take notice.

Tinker Tailor would appear to have everything it needs to be a PTA champ: a great cast, a great director, a miniscule release platform (four theaters), kudos out the wazoo (it was nominated for six awards at the British Independent Film Awards as well as the Golden Lion at Venice), a truckload of critical acclaim (a staggering 96% score on RT with 49/51 positive) and an awesome Rating (7.7 with over 5,000 votes). Even so, $8 is a lot to spend on it, especially with strong competition in that category like Shame, The Artist and A Dangerous Method, not to mention everything else coming out this week. The $7 price tag in Box Office is predicated on whether or not the film will ever go wide, and I am unsure at this time whether something like that is being planned, so I would probably pass there.

Young Adult ($6 Ult, $5 BO) – This is the latest film from director Jason Reitman, following up critical darlings Juno and Up in the Air. It will be debuting in eight theaters this Friday before expanding wide next week (I’m guessing somewhere in the 1,000-1,500 range). The screenplay was written by Diablo Cody (who won an Oscar for Juno). Charlize Theron plays Mavis Gary, a writer of teen literature who returns to her small hometown to try to recapture her glory days, as well as to try to woo her old high-school sweetheart (Patrick Wilson), despite the inconvenient fact that he’s happy married. She also forms a rather unusual bond with a former classmate (Patton Oswalt), who hasn’t quite learned how to move on, either.

From watching the trailer, I can’t get over just how similar Theron’s character is to Cameron Diaz’s character in Bad Teacher, which is a shameless go-getter who is prepared to do pretty much anything she can to get what she wants no matter who she has to steamroll to get it. Oswalt’s character looks to be pretty much the same as Jason Segel’s, which is the sardonic voice of reason. Still, that film managed $100 million, and while I don’t think Young Adult will do THAT well, it still has the potential to make $30-$40 million if word of mouth is good. For $5 in Box Office, you could do a lot worse. I probably wouldn’t take it in Ultimate, though.

We Need to Talk About Kevin ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – What’s worse than being the parent of a teenage boy who is tragically killed? Being the parent of a disturbed boy whose love of archery culminates in a killing spree that claims the life of your husband, your young daughter, and several high-school students. Tilda Swinton plays Eva, whose son Kevin (Ezra Miller) does just that. Much of the film is apparently told in flashback, as Eva recalls the events of Kevin’s life, starting as a very young child, that let him up to that terrible day. John C. Reilly also co-stars.

I’m not sure how many films are in store for We Need to Talk About Kevin this Friday, but it’s worth finding out, because this film has just as much chance to win the PTA crown as Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It, too, has been lauded by critics (85% on RT with 58/68 positive) since its debut at Cannes this year. Its Rating (8.0 with over 2,000 votes) is also extremely solid. However, given the subject matter, this can’t be an easy film to watch, and there’s just as equal a chance that the PTA score will be low as high. I would probably pass on it… there’s just too much else going on.

W.E. ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – I’m sure I’m not the first to say that for a director, Madonna is an excellent singer. W.E. is her second project sitting in the director’s chair, but it’s clear from both the RT score (33% on 2/6) and its User Rating (4.8 with 400 votes) that whether she’s behind the camera or in front of it, the former Material Girl has yet to develop any kind of following when it comes to cinema.

W.E. is a biopic that touches on the same situation that The King’s Speech did last year. In that film, the stutter-prone King George VI was forced to assume the pre-WWII throne of England because the rightful heir, his brother King Edward VIII, was forced to abdicate after falling in love with American socialite Wallis Simpson. In W.E., the star-crossed lovers are played by James D’Arcy and Andrea Riseborough.
I’d go deeper into the plot, but there doesn’t seem to be any point. Given the film’s pedigree, it seems likely to engender anything but supreme indifference at however many theaters deign to show it. Even for $3, I wouldn’t take this film in anything but Bankrupts.

I Melt With You ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – Believe it or not, there is another film this week with equally unimpressive stats as W.E., and that’s I Melt With You. Currently boasting an RT score of 25% (2/8 positive) and a 5.3 Rating (on 244 botes), this outing from the usually-reliable Magnolia Pictures will be debuting on an unknown number of screens this Friday. Four former college friends now in their 40s (Thomas Jane, Rob Lowe, Jeremy Piven and Christian McCay) have habitually united once a year in order to commisserate and reminisce, which includes using whatever recreational substances they can get their hands on and partying hardy. However, on this occasion, tragedy strikes, and in response, they decide to “resurrect a former pact by which to live and die, thus creating a new world order” (or so says Wikipedia).

From the looks of things, I Melt With You has only one thing going for it… it’s $2, a price tag that not one other film in the December-February leagues has. Which means, if you first seven picks total $98, this is your only choice. Which is not much a choice at all. It won’t get any PTA, and it’s Rating will hurt your more than it’ll help. If you choose this film, I hope your other seven choices turn out better.


My predictions for the weekend of December 9-11, 2011:

1. New Year’s Eve - $25 million
2. The Sitter - $10 million
3. The Muppets - $8 million
4. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $7 million
5. Hugo - $6 million
6. Arthur Christmas - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only three films will be debuting, but oh, my, they are big: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, the second chapter in the saga of the famous literary detective starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law; Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, the third film in the series featuring the trio of singing, dancing rodents; and Carnage, a comedy-drama from controversial director Roman Polanski, starring Kate Winslet and Jodie Foster.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Ann Coulter (political commentator) (50 on 12/8)
Beau Bridges (The Fabulous Baker Boys, Stargate SG-1) (70 on 12/9)
Nia Peeples (General Hospital, Fame) (50 on 12/10)
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) (80 on 12/11)

Later!

[numbersix]

Considering this will be the first new wide release film in 2 weeks, not to mention the fitting time of release, I'd say NY's Eve will open a little better than you say, plummet the following week and perhaps hold well the last two weeks, mostly for the timing. The Sitter is a tough one to call but a 10m openign sounds about right.

As for PTA, Tinker Tailor pretty much has top spot, followed by Young Adult. It's all in the theatre count. I think Kevin will do well in its 4 theatres, pity there's so much competition (if you want to read the worst film review of all time, check out Rex Reed's review of this move for the NY Observer. Possibly the more ignorant take on a film I've ever read). 4th and 5th spot for PTA will be between Shame and The Artist.

1. New Year’s Eve - $30 million
2. The Sitter - $11 million
3. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $8 million
4 The Muppets - $7 million
5. Hugo - $5.5 million

[Buscemi]

1. New Year's Eve $35 million
2. The Sitter $9 million
3. The Muppets $7 million
4. Hugo $7 million
5. Breaking Dawn Part I $6 million

[Chienfantome]

You guys really don't have faith in The Sitter ! Damn. I hope you're wrong about it.

[Buscemi]

It's just an unneeded R-rated remake of Adventures in Babysitting. Nothing more, nothing less.

Also, I read the final run time is only 81 minutes. When an adult-aimed movie is that short (and many of the popular comedies lately have been near or over two hours), the movie is most likely a steaming pile.

[numbersix]

Yeah, it's been a long time since there's been an r-rated comedy opening in December. Last one I can think of is Charlie Wilson's War, which is as much drama as comedy, and the decent reviews certainly helped its legs (opened 9m, 66m in total). Can't see The Sitter having legs like that. 11/30 is my prediction.

[Chienfantome]

But don't you think that the only cinematic offers of late being teen and family friendly stuff, there is room for the guys who already had enough of Twilight and won't want committ to New Year's Eve to opt for a good old R-rated comedy instead ? I don't see it making 75 million either, but I wouldn't be shocked if it grabbed 40 or 50 millions. But maybe I have too much faith in american guys who can take Twilight and New Year's Eve without complaining ?

[englishozzy]

I still have some faith in The Sitter Chien, not as much as i did when i first saw the trailer but i still think it might surprise.

1. New Years Eve - 28 million
2. The Sitter - 14 million
3. The Muppets - 8 million
4. Breaking Dawn Part 1 - 6.5 million
5. Hugo - 6 million

[Chienfantome]

You're my maaaan, Ozzy

[transformers2]

I'm really not sure on The Sitter. I have been seen a good amount of ad's for it, but Jonah Hill as a lead isn't a guaranteed success.

1.New Year's Eve $38 Mil (Valentine's Day really well, this is pretty much the same movie)
2.The Sitter $12 Mil
3. The Muppets $8 Mil
4.Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 $7 Mil
5.Hugo $6 Mil

[Buscemi]

Well, New Year's Eve is the sequel to Valentine's Day.

[Chienfantome]

It's a film based on the same principle, but it's hard to call it a sequel, without any character or plot connected...

[BanksIsDaFuture]

If Valentine's Day got a 55/110, why the lower expectations on New Year's Eve?

[Chienfantome]

Maybe because Valentine's Day was sooooo bad, girls will have a hard time, this time, to bring their men to it ?

[Buscemi]

It's a film based on the same principle, but it's hard to call it a sequel, without any character or plot connected...

The movie was greenlighted as a sequel and it has the same director, concept, theme naming and a few actors return. It's as much of a sequel as Halloween III: Season of the Witch is.