SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/2/11

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Twilight, Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $5.5M
The Muppets, $2.7M
Hugo, $2.0M
Arthur Christmas, $1.7M
Jack and Jill, $1.6M
Happy Feet Two, $1.4M
Immortals, $1.4M
J. Edgar, $710K
Puss in Boots, $700K


The Artist made $55,600 in 6 theaters, and would appear to be on pace for a $30K PTA weekend.



Weekend projections:

Twilight, Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $16.7M
The Muppets, $11M
Hugo, $7.8M
Arthur Christmas, $6.7M
Happy Feet Two, $5.7M
Jack and Jill, $5.5M
The Descendants, $5.3M (may squeak out a few more PTA)
Immortals, $4.5M
Tower Heist, $3.8M
Puss in Boots, $3.0K
J. Edgar, $2.4K
My Week With Marilyn, $1.2M

Shame, $380K ($38K PTA)
The Artist, $205K ($34K PTA)


As of now, this is how the PTA race is looking:

5 points - Shame
4 points - The Artist
3 points - My Week With Marilyn
2 points - Hugo
1 point - Twilight: Breaking Dawn

This could all change depending on how well A Dangerous Method and Outrage do. For the Dec-Feb leagues, it seems clear that Shame will get 5 points and Outrage will get 4 points.

[numbersix]

The Descendants is making way more PTA than Marilyn, Huo, and Twilight. DL's theatre count is wrong. It has about 560 theatres.

[W]

I got the original predictions from Deadline...

[Shrykespeare]

You're right... that would make the race look like this:


5 points - Shame
4 points - The Artist
3 points - The Descendants
2 points - My Week With Marilyn
1 point - Hugo

Again, this is without knowing how well A Dangerous Method or Outrage are doing.

ETA: According to BoxOffice, the PTA's of MWWM, Hugo and TBD1 are quite close.

[Buscemi]

Outrage is looking at about $3,000 PTA for the week, based on HSX estimates.

[Shrykespeare]

So zero points for Outrage in the Oct & Nov leagues, four in the Dec leagues. Glad I only took it in the latter....

[numbersix]

Wow, Shame beating The Artist. That is interesting. Shame did better than I thought (guess Fassbender's er... bender... is a "massive" draw. Oh the double entendres!). Makes you wonder what The Artist's chances are like once it expands. And a good result from Shame suggests it will make some points next weekend (probably 4th after Tinker Tailor, Young Adult, We Need to Talk About Kevin, and perhaps battling with the Artist).

[Chienfantome]

I was expecting a smaller drop for The Artist in 2nd weekend, but it's still good. More nominations ans awards should help it stay strong PTA wise, and expand interestingly at the beginning of 2012.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $16.9M
4 points - The Muppets, $11.2M
3 points - Hugo, $7.6M
2 points - Arthur Christmas, $7.3M
1 point - Happy Feet Two, $6.0M
Jack and Jill, $5.5M
The Descendants, $5.2M
Immortals, $4.4M
Tower Heist, $4.1M
Puss in Boots, $3.0M

PTA:
5 points - Shame
4 points - The Artist
3 points - A Dangerous Method
2 points - The Descendants
1 point - My Week With Marilyn

I'm glad MWWM doesn't go totally empty-handed. No word on Outrage yet.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I hope abbreviating My Week With Marilyn as MWWM doesn't become a thing.
I'm gonna get it confused with MMMM - Martha Marcy May M-whatever....

[Buscemi]

The Muppets dropped 62%. Not a good hold at all.

[numbersix]

What did have a surprising hold was Breaking Dawn. It's dropping less than New Moon. So much for fans not liking it as much, eh?

[Buscemi]

Just a bad weekend, that's all. Nothing came out (while New Moon had to face four openers).

[Chienfantome]

The Artist actually made more than last weekend, thanks to an expansion from 4 to 6 theaters. Very good.

[numbersix]

Just a bad weekend, that's all. Nothing came out (while New Moon had to face four openers).

4 openers that pretty much failed and had very little impact. Besides, Breaking Dawn was holding better than New Moon over the entire week (i.e. Mon-Thurs as well)