SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/23/11-11/25/11

[thswrestler160]

The reason Eclipse didn't fall hard was because it had a 60m opening weekend after 2 days of play where as the 5 day weekend came first for New Moon and Breaking Dawn so Eclipse comparisons should be left out. Also Eclipse was the only one to play during the summer, another reason why comparisons should be left out. And yes Breaking Dawn is falling very similar to new moon which would put it around 285 when it finishes. Not really that bad or far off of what we were all expecting.

Didn't we already have the same "how far will it fall since its a 2 part movie" thing when harry potter pt 1 came out? It finished at 295 about in the middle of the pack as far as Harry Potter goes and most of us expected that. I dont know why any of us would have expected anything lower than 250 or higher than 315. That being said I can't wait for next year when boosh tries to predict bad numbers for the poorly received book and it opens to 170m and finishes around 360

[Buscemi]

Word of mouth hasn't been as strong on this one as it was for Deathly Hallows Part 1 (I haven't really seen or heard anyone talking about this one like the others). Also if the Lionsgate/Summit merger goes through, that could reduce the final film's marketing budget (as the newly formed company would have double the release slate).

[thswrestler160]

yes it would have double the release slate but also double the money. And if hunger games does good that would just be more money fueling into the company in perfect time for the marketing push for BDpt2. And if you think Summit is going to hold back on the marketing for their one and only money earner for its final release you've got another thing coming. And new moon alone made enough profit to fund the marketing for the remaining 3 films and still have some left over to invest in other projects.

[Buscemi]

If the merger goes through, Lionsgate/Summit will not only have Breaking Dawn and The Hunger Games but The Expendables 2 (the first one was one of Lionsgate's biggest earners ever), Step Up 4 (the first one distributed domestically by Summit) and potential franchise starters in One For The Money (like The The Hunger Games, this could be the start of a big series), What To Expect When You're Expecting (the also based on a popular non-fiction book He's Just Not That Into You was a big hit and led to the Valentine's Day/New Year's Eve series), Dredd and Leatherface 3-D. That's seven tentpole titles that will be fighting over P+A money. Either Twilight's P+A budget will get reduced or one or two of these will get dumped.

And as I said, people aren't responding as well to Breaking Dawn Part 1 as the other films. The last one will drop. Whether it's a $10 million drop or one similar to the last Matrix film, you won't bring back the audience from one disappointing entry for another disappointing entry. It would need excellent reviews to pull off an increase.

[numbersix]

Boosch, just wondering what makes you think fans aren't responding well to Breaking Dawn Pt1 as to other Twilight films? The IMDB score, as an example, on it is currently the same as Eclipse and higher than New Moon. Who are these so-called disappointed fans?

Personally, I see Breaking Dawn Pt 2 being the highest earning of the bunch, but not by a lot. The difference between this and Harry Potter is that Twilight has a dedicated audience but little scope for new fans or the casual/curious group. Harry Potter felt like the end of a decade-long era, and the good reviews helped the cinefiles check it out too. It was a more accessible franchise. Twilight is not like this, so it's unlikely to suprise. I would say it'll have the best opening weekend of the series (the die hard fans will see it over and over) but have a similar internal multiplier of 50% or so. So I'm going with an OW of $160m and it'll close at about $320m or so.

As for its P+A budget, I'd be very surprised if a cash cow like this would have a lower budget due to an amalgamated slate.

[Buscemi]

With the other films, I knew of people who wouldn't shut up about it and acted like it was the greatest thing ever. With this one, it's more like "I saw it and liked it but it's nothing special". It's as if the first three were a Diet Coke and Mentos cocktail but this one is just flat, day-old Diet Coke.