SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/23/11-11/25/11

[numbersix]

So Wednesday's early numbers are in. DL is saying Muppets have a $7.3m and a 50m 5-day, Arthur $2.8/22, Hugo $1.6/11. Also Twilight $12.5/58, Happy Feet 2 $3/23.

However, the DL figures seem suspect, and a 7.3m Wednesday will more than likely result in a $45m 5-day and a $32 3-day weekend. That could result in the film making 90-110m cume, depending on its legs (I'm assuming 90, as it'll drop hard come Xmas week as there's a heck of a lot of competition)

But of course the most important point is that Boosch was wrong. That's 2 out of your 3 zany predictions (the first being Twilight would make far less than previous films). Still sure Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will flop?

Oh, and HAPPY THANKSGIVING to the folks in the US. Not for the historical connotations, but because you get a 5-day weekend!

[Chienfantome]

I can't wait to see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being released
I didn't even know it was Thanksgiving (heck, I 'm not even sure I know what Thanksgiving is exactly, is the the pilgrim thing ?)

[numbersix]

I think it's when us disenfranchised European colonists mass murdered the Native Americans. And ate turkey.

[Geezer]

I think it's when us disenfranchised European colonists mass murdered the Native Americans. And ate turkey.

Almost. You forgot they also ate stuffing and pie.

[transformers2]

Solid numbers from The Muppets and Arthur Christmas. Not surprised at all that Hugo didn't do well.

[silversurfer19]

BOM's numbers are in and it has:

Breaking Dawn - 12.5m
The Muppets - 6.6m
Happy Feet - 2.9m
Arthur Christmas - 2.4m
Hugo - 1.6m

So The Muppets and Arthur Christmas were a little down on those early estimates, but it should still allow for a decent weekend. But seriously six, are you expecting only a 3x multiple from The Muppets? A family movie. Over the Christmas period? It will have earned half your 90m just on this weekend. I'd say with a $32m OW it should be headed for $100m even before Alvin and Sherlock are released, probably topping out around the $125m mark.

[numbersix]

Just trying to keep my expectations down for the Full Year Draft leagues!

[silversurfer19]

Well, that was me low-balling it. In my highest expectations I can easily see $150m for it, all depending on how much the kids love it. If they don't it probably won't do much more than $120m, but if they do, the sky's the limit.

[numbersix]

Here's something to back up my caution. It's opening lower than Enchanted, which made 34 (49 5-day) on Thanksgiving weekend and went on to make 127m. Plus it had a lot less competition on Xmas week. But hey, anything above 90 is a damn fine performance, especially as I have it in most slates

[Buscemi]

Paramount hardly marketed Hugo. I never saw a trailer in the theatre until Puss in Boots. Had Sony kept the film and pushed back Arthur Christmas, it would have done much better.

As for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, $90 million is the ceiling. It's too dark for Christmas and probably would have fared better in October (where The Social Network did nearly $100 million).

Also, my lowballing of The Muppets isn't as bad as some of the overpredicting it was getting on other sites. Someone on HSX had it at $60 million!

[numbersix]

Aha, now you're adjusting your estimates upwards. $90m for Dragon is surely not a flop, but a rather fine performance. So you're slowly coming around to the fact that your previous thoughts on the film were simply insane?

[Buscemi]

Indeed. I still felt that $50 million was a reasonable result for a dark film opening in a period where people want light fare.

I still don't see reviews being favorable though.

[numbersix]

Why not?

[Buscemi]

Remakes of foreign films aren't usually successful with critics.

[numbersix]

Yeah but Fincher has even managed to make the critics like his obvious attempt at Oscar Bait.

And there's always examples of films like Let Me In and The Departed which were remakes of lauded films that managed to get the critics on side.