SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/23/11-11/25/11

[Shrykespeare]

Well, it was close, but Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 wasn’t quite able to top New Moon for the highest-ever opening for the franchise, but it was still able to decimate all opposition en route to a $138 million OW, miles ahead of the $22 million amassed by Happy Feet Two, which is a far cry from how the original in that series debuted. Topping the PTA charts was The Descendants, which had an outstanding OW of over $1 million in only 29 theaters.

With the final cuts of the 2011 Super Leagues coming up next week, the biggest question on all minds is… just how far will Breaking Dawn drop in its second week, which just happens to coincide with the long, five-day Thanksgiving weekend? Some are saying 75-80%, which would be the highest drop so far… but even with such a titanic plummet, it still might have enough juice to muster a second-week win. Not because there is no competition, but because all of the this week’s new wide-release films could easily be considered kids’ movies, which, when you throw Happy Feet Two into the mix, means that the market for that particular genre is pretty well-saturated for the next few weeks.

Before I go into this week’s six new films, it’s worth noting that every single one of them is getting fantastic marks from critics. At the moment I’m writing this, all six of them have a “Fresh” score of 80% or higher. (When you consider that the top four films at the box office this past weekend all have scores of BELOW 50%, that may be something else to consider.)

It was way back in 1954 that puppeteer Jim Henson created the first of a wide array of characters that have been beloved by small children as well as adults for decades. Millions of kids the world over grew up watching Sesame Street on PBS, and many of us middle-aged codgers still have fond memories of The Muppet Show, the comedic variety show that ran from 1976-1981. There were also a series of feature films, starting with The Muppet Movie in 1979. The last one was Muppets From Space, which barely made a blip in theaters in 1999, and apart from the occasional direct-to-video project, many of the beloved characters from those films just faded into obscurity. Until now, that is… for 2011 heralds the glorious return of The Muppets, and it’s about damn time.

The run-down, disused Muppet Theater that saw so many years of entertainment is now abandoned, but apparently someone somewhere discovered that a cache of oil lies right beneath it’s foundation, oil that oilman Tex Richman (Chris Cooper) plans to harvest. His plan is overheard by Walter, the world’s biggest Muppet fan (and a Muppet himself), who confides in his friend Gary (Jason Segel) and his girlfriend Mary (Amy Adams). Together, they must try to track down the legendary Kermit the Frog, and with his help, reunite Miss Piggy, Fozzy Bear, The Great Gonzo and the rest of the gang, to stage a telethon that will not only save the theater from demolition but make the Muppets famous again.

I’ve read several reviews for The Muppets, and they are off the charts. All twenty reviews have been positive, and several, including Josh Tyler of Cinemablend.com calls it “one of the best movies you’ll see this year”. Set to debut in about 3,300 theaters, I am hoping for a huge opening for this film, not only because I am one of those kids who grew up watching The Muppets, but because I can think of no other cast of characters that deserve to be welcomed by a new generation of fans.

Still, I have to try to not let nostalgia overwhelm me and be realistic. Even with a 70% drop for Breaking Dawn, it’s still going to take over $40 million for The Muppets to be #1 this weekend, and I just can’t quite foresee that happening. I will predict a $35 million for the Friday-Sunday weekend ($50 million for the 5-day weekend). It will run you $19 in both the Ultimate and Box Office leagues for November, and I think if any kids’ movie has the potential to outlast all its competitors and be drawing a crowd well into January, it’s this one. There’s really only one pure kids’ movie coming in December (Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked), and all I can do is hope that The Muppets will curry more favor with audiences than yet another completely unnecessary chapter in that franchise.

The only film this winter specifically with a Christmas theme (that ISN’T rated R) is Arthur Christmas, an animated film brought to American shores by Aardman Animation, the same British studio that gave us films such as Chicken Run, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Flushed Away. It, too, will be bowing in roughly 3,300 theaters starting Wednesday.

The story revolves around Santa Claus (Jim Broadbent) himself, doing what he does best, on the busiest night of the year – Christmas Eve. Now a very high-tech operation, Santa’s job is made easier by the leadership of his eldest son Steve (Hugh Laurie), a very capable but arrogant man. However, a snafu occurs on this particular night, as it is revealed that in the rush to deliver presents to children aroudn the world, one little girl got skipped. Uh-oh. Averting this catastrophe becomes the mission for Arthur (James McAvoy), Santa’s good-natured but clumsy son, who must use old-school methods (i.e. reindeer) to get the job done right. Also in the supporting cast are Bill Nighy, Joan Cusack, Robbie Coltrane and Andy Serkis.

Given Aardman’s history, it’s easy to peg Arthur Christmas as a humorous but undemanding kids’ movie, and given the Christmas theme, it should do very well if it’s marketed right (and so far, it has been). If it was opening against anything but The Muppets I would predict a strong showing, but as it is, I think it will manage only a $15 million OW ($27 million 5-day), on its way to six Top 5 points and $80 million. It’s already got a good Rating (7.0 with 400 votes) as well as a great RT score (94% on 32/34 reviews), so spending $12 on it may be a pretty good deal.

The third major film coming out this week is Hugo, a 3D drama/adventure film under the directorship of none other than Martin Scorsese himself. Yes, it’s hard to believe that the man who helmed such classic dramas as Raging Bull, The Color of Money, Goodfellas, Casino, The Aviator, The Departed and Shutter Island would be inclined to do a kids’ movie, but there we are.

Based on the novel The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick, Hugo stars British teen actor Asa Butterfield in the titular role of Hugo, an orphaned boy who lives a secret life in the walls of a Paris train station in the 1930’s. When Hugo encounters a broken robot, a strange girl named Isabelle (Kick Ass’s Chloe Moretz) and a cold, reserved man who runs the local toy shop, he is “caught up in a fantastic adventure that could put all his secrets in jeopardy”, or so Wikipedia states. The amazing supporting cast includes Sir Ben Kingsley, Jude Law, Emily Mortimer, Ray Winstone, Christopher Lee and Sacha Baron Cohen.

Like The Muppets, Hugo has a perfect RT score so far (albeit on only seven reviews), and I would probably recommend this film as well… for viewing, anyway. For game purposes, it’s a really bad pick. Why? Well, for whatever reason, Paramount is only opening Hugo in 1,200 theaters, a bit of info that was only made available. Needless to say, Top 5 points and PTA points will be very hard to come by, even with zero wide-release films coming next week. And since when pricing was done, a much larger release platform was expected, the current price tag of $14 in Ultimate ($15 in Box Office) looms as far, far too elevated to make this a viable pick. So much the pity.

And now, a little bit about this week’s three limited-release features:

My Week With Marilyn ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – Oscar-bait films have already started coming out, and this is one of them. Nothing screams “nominate me” more than a recently-acclaimed actor or actress playing a well-known historical figure, and few were as well-known in the middle of the last century as Marilyn Monroe, the bombshell who took Hollywood by storm before dying young of a prescription drug overdose. She is being played by Michelle Williams, who has already been nominated for two Oscars (for Blue Valentine and Brokeback Mountain).

The “week” in the film’s title refers to a period during the summer of 1956, when Marilyn was in England filming The Prince and the Showgirl opposite Sir Laurence Olivier. Having just been newly wed to playwright Arthur Miller (Dougray Scott), Marilyn is being introduced to British culture by Olivier’s assistant, Colin Clark (Eddie Redmayne). And once Miller leaves the country, sparks start to fly between the incredibly mismatched couple… My Week also stars Kenneth Branagh (as Olivier) as well as Judi Dench, Dominic Cooper, Julia Ormond, Derek Jacobi and, in her first post-Harry Potter role, Emma Watson.

This film will be debuting in 125 locations on Wedensday, and will then expand to double that number on Friday. And just like with Hugo, that makes things rather problematic as far as PTA points go. If it garners incredible Oscar buzz, it could steadily build over the next two month (a la Slumdog Millionaire), but that’s a nearly impossible thing to predict. I can’t recommend this as a pick.

A Dangerous Method ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This is also a period drama, from director David Cronenberg (who we last saw in 2007 with the excellent Eastern Promises). Taking place on the eve of the onset of World War I, the story centers on arguably two of the most famous psychoanalysts of all time: Sigmund Freud (Viggo Mortensen) and Carl Jung (the ubiquitous Michael Fassbender, also coming up next week in Shame). More specifically, the story centers on the the turbulent relationship between the two men as they deal with a beautiful but troubled young woman named Sabina Spielrein (Keira Knightley), who uses, despite her questionable mental state, proceeds to weave a web to enveigle both men.

It’s good to see Knightly and Mortensen back, particularly under Cronenberg. And if it weren’t for the film that I’m about to talk about it, I would say snatch up A Dangerous Method without a second thought. However, I have to believe that a PTA win is simply not in the cards, even with it only debuting in four theaters this week. (It will expand slowly over the next few months, eventually ending up in triple digits.)

The Artist ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – This French film is a throwback in pretty much every way possible. Shot in black-and-white, it mimics the films that were the staple of visual entertainment back in 1927, the period where The Artist is set: silents. It centers on George Valentin (Jean Dujardin), a silent movie superstar who is anticipating the end of his career, brought on by the advent of talking pictures. Struggling to hang on to what vestiges of fame he has left, his life becomes intertwined with that of an up-and-coming young actress/dancer named Peppy Miller (Berenice Bejo). As I said, this looks to be a silent film, so I’m sure what little dialogue there is will be written on the screen. But it’s not only French actors comprising the cast… there are also plenty of notable American faces as well, including John Goodman, James Cromwell and Penelope Ann Miller.

The Artist premiered at Cannes earlier this year, where Dujardin took home the award for Best Actor. It has stellar marks across the board, including a 96% RT score (24/25) and an 8.3 Rating (on nearly 2,000 votes). Set to debut on four screens this Friday, this film just screams “PTA gold mine” in a very loud voice. If you only choose one film for PTA purposes from this weekend, this should probably be it.

My predictions for the weekend of November 23-27, 2011:

1. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $41 million ($55 million 5-day)
2. The Muppets - $35 million ($50 million 5-day)
3. Arthur Christmas - $15 million ($27 million 5-day)
4. Happy Feet Two - $14 million ($25 million 5-day)
5. Hugo - $10 million ($16 million 5-day)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week… there’s not a hell of a lot going on, actually. Only two films to talk about, and both of them are limited-release films. The first is Shame, a drama starring Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan, and Outrage, a Japanese crime drama.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Mariel Hemingway (Manhattan, Star 80) (50 on 11/22)
Christina Applegate (Married: With Children, Anchorman) (40 on 11/25)
Natasha Bedingfield (singer) (30 on 11/26)

Later!

[silversurfer19]

I really believe this could well be the weekend that makes or breaks the slates that will win the Super Leagues. There are so many question marks over so many movies for completely different reasons.

Could The Muppets explode like you suggest and have a stranglehold over the Christmas period? Or will kids look perplexed and uninterested in it (most kids seemed uninterested compared to the adults when I was at the Muppets show in Hollywood Studios recently).

Could Aardman make the most of the lack of Christmas themed movies and pull a Gnomeo and Juliet (or better)?

Will Marilyn, being a prestige UK set movie based on a famous historical figure, released on the same weekend a year apart, perform similarly to The King's Speech, gradually building a fan base and it's box office?

Could The Artist claim week after week of PTA points or will the format (b/w AND subtitled) put people off?

There are just so many questions, and I've been playing around with my slate non stop trying to factor some of these movies in. And I'm still undecided...

[Buscemi]

Here's how I'm predicting the weekend:

1. Breaking Dawn $34 million ($49 million five-day)
2. Happy Feet Two $18 million ($29 million five-day)
3. The Muppets $18 million ($30 million five-day)
4. Arthur Christmas $14 million ($24 million five-day)
5. Hugo $10 million ($17 million five-day)

The Muppets is being way overestimated. Most of the appeal has been to twentysomethings instead of families and kids probably know nothing of the characters. Also, predictors seem to be completely forgetting how the others post-Muppet Show did.

[Chienfantome]

At last The Artist is being released ! I can't wait to see how American audiences welcome the film !

[englishozzy]

I still have an inkling The Muppets could do really well for its self. I agree with Surfer though that this week in particular has most of us divided in opinions.

My predictions;

1. The Muppets - $38 million
2. Breaking Dawn - $36 million
3. Arthur Christmas - $16 million
4. Happy Feet 2 - $14 million
5. Hugo - $9 million

[numbersix]

A tough week to tell who will win and who will fail. I'm saying The Muppets will battle for #1 with Twilight.
As for PTA, The Artist will kick some ass, and will do so next week (I doubt even Fassbender's willie will be enough to beat it next weekend). A Dangeorus Mind should get some points IF it's opening ina few theatres. Marilyn should also get some points though perhaps not in the future, though there is a potential to break out. That said, I'm not convinced.

1. Breaking Dawn $39 million ($55 million five-day)
2. The Muppets $33 million ($45 million five-day)
3. Happy Feet Two $15 million ($24 million five-day)
4. Arthur Christmas $14 million ($23 million five-day)
5. Hugo $9 million ($15 million five-day)

[Chienfantome]

The Method is dangerous, Six, not the Mind

[numbersix]

I'm secretly obsessed with....

[Chienfantome]

I'm not surprised you are

[numbersix]

Latest tracking has Muppets in the low 30s, Arthur at about 10, and Hugo at around 6. Yikes!

[Ron Burgundy]

this weekend seems a little too hyped. but i think lots of the films will have legs here. Why else would these studios release it after twilight: breaking business, targeting douches

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Reviews have been great for Hugo - why is Paramount dumping it into only 1,000 theaters?

[Ron Burgundy]

Im convinced, that Hugo will not fail. the 1000 count will only rise, i mean come on, Martin Fkn Scorsese. Its like a limited release which will have to garner attention and in the end, mega bucks. Tell me its gonna fall flat, and why

[undeadmonkey]

Maybe Hugo is actually good, but the trailers make it seem awful. Also they are trying to sell it on Scorsese's name, but kids don't care who made the movie.

[Buscemi]

It appeals to both families and adults. The adults will see it in early weeks but families will keep the drops small.

Edit: surprisingly enough, all three theatres here showing Hugo are getting multiple prints. Maybe it's getting more than 1,200 theatres.