SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi wrote:I had read somewhere (I forget where, it was long ago) that three more books were planned after Breaking Dawn and Midnight Sun was the first one. I think that Bree Tanner and The Host (the latter being unrelated) ended up replacing those books in a publisher deal.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to need proof of that. Otherwise I'm calling it BS

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates:

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $72M
Happy Feet 2, $5.9M
Immortals, $3.8M
Jack and Jill, $3.5M
Puss in Boots, $3.4M

The Descendants, $319K (in 29 theaters)


It's interesting... Happy Feet 2 was picked by many in the Sep-Nov Super Leagues but NO ONE in the Oct-Dec leagues. Now we know why.

And it looks like The Descendants is neck-and-neck for the PTA crown with Twilight.


Weekend Projections:

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt. 1 - $140M
Happy Feet 2 - $23M
Puss in Boots - $14.3M
Immortals - $12.3M
Jack and Jill - $12.2M
Tower Heist - $7.2M
J. Edgar - $6.0M
Harold & Kumar - $2.8M
In Time - $1.6M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by W »

Every one of use was derided in the draft league by Six for leaving Happy Feet 2 to him. For a little while I thought he may be right. I feel ok about that decision now. Especially with Muppets out next week then Arthur Christmas and it still has to compete with Puss. With a $23 M OW, those penguins are gonna drown.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

I saw Happy Feet Two today and the kids in the audience seemed to like it (even with the six or so different plots going on). I still feel that The Muppets and Arthur Christmas are hard sells (I explained why earlier) which could lead to a small drop for it.

I'll predict a little early for Thanksgiving weekend:

1. Breaking Dawn $34 million ($49 million five-day)
2. Happy Feet Two $18 million ($29 million five-day)
3. The Muppets $18 million ($30 million five-day)
4. Arthur Christmas $14 million ($24 million five-day)
5. Hugo $10 million ($17 million five-day)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, well, I thought it was a sure fire hit, W, but ultimately playing against Twilight was a bad move. As was making a sequel 5 years after the first. My draft leauge chances are destroyed by now.

Boosch, I agree. Happy Feet should have good legs as the competitions hasn't been particularly strong. Next week shoudl see a strong drop

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

You mean a strong hold. ; )
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by numbersix »

I've got booze in my system ;)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by thswrestler160 »

Not sure how much it will affect the fri-sat drop but Summit is restricting the showings of Breaking Dawn. As shows were selling out fri night we figured we would just open up one of the digitals to accomodate the extra crowd. Summit refused to let us open up any extra screenings of the show. So people were forced to buy tickets for Saturday showings. Not sure if it will translate into a better hold Fri-Sat than expected but it definitely hampered the friday grosses. I'm sure if they let theaters open as many as they want they could have easily beat new moons fri numbers. The only reason I can think they would do that is to make people think all the shows are sold out to build buzz but with a movie like Breaking Dawn I fail to see the point.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by W »

I guess, the Twilight crowd has a large portion of moms for the kids who's ages fall into the Happy Feet range. I never thought about that.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates


Top 12:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $139.5M
4 points - Happy Feet Two, $22.0M
3 points - Immortals, $12.2M
2 points - Jack and Jill, $12M
1 point - Puss in Boots, $10.7M
Tower Heist, $6.9M
J. Edgar, $5.9M
Harold & Kumar, $2.9M
In Time, $1.7M
The Descendants, $1.2M
Paranormal Activity 3, $1.0M
Footloose, $835K

PTA:
5 points - The Descendants
4 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1
3 points - Happy Feet Two
2 points - Melancholia
1 point - Like Crazy
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

This thread, by the way, has had the most number of posts of any column I've ever done. Love it!

Weekend Actuals

Top 12:
5 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $138.1M
4 points - Happy Feet Two, $20.2M
3 points - Immortals, $12.4M
2 points - Jack and Jill, $11.7M
1 point - Puss in Boots, $10.8M
Tower Heist, $7.1M
J. Edgar, $5.9M
Harold & Kumar Xmas, $2.9M
In Time, $1.7M
The Descendants, $1.2M
Paranormal Activity 3, $1.0M
Footloose, $861K

PTA:
5 points - The Descendants, $41,038
4 points - Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $34,012
3 points - Melancholia, $5,922
2 points - Happy Feet Two, $5,889
1 point (Sep/Oct leagues) - Like Crazy, $4,837 (that makes 13 PTA points total)
1 point (Nov leagues only) - Immortals, $3,959
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Like crazy, jack and jill, who picked m?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

I picked Like Crazy on many of my slates. Can't go wrong with a Sundance winner.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/16/11-11/18/11

Post by Chienfantome »

I haven't picked it anywhere, contrary to Jack and Jill which I've picked on a few and on my 2 drafts... That wasn't the best idea :lol:
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