SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/9/11-11/11/11

[Shrykespeare]

After a somewhat disappointing OW last weekend, Puss in Boots engineered one of the most impressive holds in recent memory, dropping only a miniscule 3% in its second weekend and easily taking first place in the box office. Coming in a surprisingly distant second was Tower Heist, which debuted with $25 million of its own. Meanwhile, Like Crazy repeated as PTA champion, joining a growing list of impressive fall PTA picks.

This Friday is 11/11/11, a singular date in history, a day when every numeral in the date is identical, a date that will not occur again for a century. Will this unique date be noteworthy for the films coming out that same day? Well, probably not, but, like most weekends, you have to be able to discern the good ones from the bad ones.

Of the three wide-release films opening this week, perhaps the most intriguing is J. Edgar, the latest directorial project from Hollywood icon Clint Eastwood, which will be opening in a scant few theaters on Wednesday before bowing in roughly 2,000 locations on Friday. Much like his previous outings Invictus and Changeling, J. Edgar is a based-on-true-events period drama, in this case a biopic of FBI founder J. Edgar Hoover, who will be (very ably) played by Leonardo DiCaprio, a role that is already starting to garner some Oscar buzz.

Although the film will also relate some of his boyhood moments, when he was being raised by his mother Anne Marie (Judi Dench), the focus of the film will how his career started, beginning with the Palmer Raids of 1919 and continuing with the formation of the FBI soon thereafter. His turbulent and enigmatic life, during which is was purported that he was a closeted homosexual and transvestite, is also examined in the film, which supports an amazing supporting cast that includes Naomi Watts, Jeffrey Donovan, Ken Howard, Leah Thompson, Armie Hammer, Josh Lucas and Stephen Root.

Films that have Eastwood as the director tend to be very interesting and memorable, if not always good. He was able to turn Million Dollar Baby and Gran Torino into blockbusters, but he was actually IN both of those films. The last three films that he has directed but not starred in ended with nearly identical numbers: Changeling earned $35 million in 2008, Invictus earned $37 million in 2009 and Hereafter earned $32 million in 2010.

Of course, the last time DiCaprio teamed up for a period drama with a legendary Hollywood director, things turned out quite well: Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island pulled in $128 million in a February release last year. And lest we forget, DiCaprio got huge acclaim and an Oscar nom for playing Howard Hughes in 2004 for The Aviator, a film that also broke the $100-million barrier. Can J. Edgar end Eastwood’s streak of mediocre outputs? I’d like to think so, but my gut says it probably won’t happen.

J. Edgar will have a lot of competition to get Top 5 points, and based on Eastwood’s history, I don’t think he’s going to get it. It will run you $11 in both the Ultimate and Box Office November leagues, and I honestly can’t see J. Edgar getting more than two Top 5 points, maybe three PTA, a Rating around 7.0 and $45 million overall. As much as it pains me to say it, I cannot recommend if for your slates. The early reviews have been spotty, and that’s another reason to consider not taking it. We’ll see how it plays out come Oscar time.

Up next is Immortals, which will be debuting in 3,000 theaters this Friday courtesy of Relativity Media. It is the third outing from Indian director Tarsem Singh (following The Cell and The Fall), and it is produced by Mark Canton, the man who also produced the monster sword-and-sandals hit 300 in 2006. Not surprising, given how similar the films look… which is to say, a prevalence of green-screen technology. But whereas 300 was a groundbreaking film, Immortals looks like a knockoff that comes five years too late, combining elements of the storylines of that film and others in the genre (like Clash of the Titans).

The film stars English actor Henry Cavill (Stardust, The Tudors) as Theseus, a mortal Greek chosen by almighty Zeus (Luke Evans) to lead the fight against the ruthless king Hyperion (Mickey Rourke), who is leaving a swathe of destruction in his quest for the long lost Bow of Epirus, a weapon of divine power that could conceivably give its owner the ability to overthrow the gods themselves. Stephen Dorff, Frieda Pinto and John Hurt co-star.

The film LOOKS good, but the inevitable comparisons to 300 give it a “been there, done that” feel. Henry Cavill is not a household name (yet… wait until he plays Superman in 2013), and I would be surprised if Immortals truly breaks out. For a price tag of $15 in Ultimate ($16 in Box Office), I envision one or two Top 5 points at the most, a middling Rating and maybe $50 million if it’s lucky. For any league but the Bankrupts league, I would not recommend this film either.

If there is one film this weekend that has a possibility of breaking out, it would have to be Jack and Jill, from Sony/Columbia and Happy Madison Pictures. It marks the seventh teaming of director Dennis Dugan and comedic actor Adam Sandler, who worked together on recent films such as You Don’t Mess With the Zohan, Grown Ups and Just Go With It.

Jack Sadelstein (Sandler) is a successful advertising exec who lives in L.A. with his wife Erin (Katie Holmes) and kids; the only thing he dreads is the yearly Thanksgiving visit from his twin sister Jill (also Sandler), whose neediness and passive-agressiveness have a tendency to turn Jack’s life upside-down. However, this year, it would seem that Jill is staying for longer than just a weekend… and to make matters worse, a big contract is on the line for Jack, and landing it may depend on his ability to woo Al Pacino (playing himself), who apparently has a thing for Jill. Guess old Al is losing his eyesight, too…

All of Sandler’s less-than-successful-actor-friends have cameos in this film, including fellow SNL alums Tim Meadows, Dana Carvey, David Spade and, of course, Rob Schneider. Several other notable celebs have cameos as well, including Johnny Depp, Shaquille O’Neal and Regis Philbin.

Just Go With It was a blockbuster hit earlier this year, but this… just looks bad. Sandler has been reduced to taking a page from Eddie Murphy’s multiple-roles playbook, and Jack and Jill looks to be merely a collection of sight gags, pratfalls and uber-awkward moments. Plus, it’s got Nick Swardson. Does this mean it will flop? Well, if Zohan can make $100 million, anything is possible.

It will cost you $16 in Ultimate ($17 in Box Office) to purchase Jack and Jill. Normally, I would have picked this film to win the weekend anyway, but with Puss in Boots suffering only a microscopic drop last weekend and likely to drop only a small amount this weekend, I can only envision a #2 finish for Jack and Jill. Say, $24 million in its first three days ($75 million overall), six Top 5 points and an average Rating at best. Yes, it’s the only adult-centric comedy until The Sitter, but that isn’t necessarily a point in its favor. Still, films like this can often be critic-proof, so anything is possible.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Melancholia ($6 Ult, $3 BO) – This film from visionary director Lars Von Trier (Europa, Breaking the Waves, Dogville) will be debuting in 13 theaters this Friday (according to the film’s US website). It is a sci-fi drama that centers on a group of people and the events leading up to the end of the world, when the Earth collides with a rogue planet dubbed Melancholia.

Kirsten Dunst stars as Justine, a young woman with a seemingly perfect life, who has just become wed to Michael (Alexander Skarsgård). However, the happy occasion is marred by the fighting of her divorced parents, and when Melancholia appears in the sky, headed for earth, Michael calls the marriage off. Enter Justin’s sister Claire (Charlotte Gainsbourg), who helps Justine cope with the loss. As the end approaches, both deal with the oncoming armageddon in different ways.

Melancholia has gotten amazing reviews so far (82% on 54/66 at RT) and it has a terrific Rating as well (7.7 on over 13,000 votes), a Rating that is unlikely to change much. The last few limited-release films that were expected to become PTA giants (Take Shelter, The Skin I Live In, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Like Crazy) have done just that, and I fully expect Melancholia to follow suit. For $6, I would be surprised if it didn’t garner at least seven PTA points over multiple weekends, which makes it easily worth its price tag.

Cook County ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – After two years on a shelf, little-known Hannover House will be distributing this drama into an unknown number of theaters this Friday. It centers on seventeen-year-old Abe (Bandslam’s Ryan Donowho), who is trying to kick his addiction to meth and protect his young niece from his abusive uncle Bump. (Straw Dogs’ Anson Mount). When Abe’s father (Xander Berkeley) returns from prison, he and Abe must find a way to deal with the minefield that is the lifestyle created around them by crystal meth and Bump.

There’s not a lot I can tell you about Cook County beyond that. It has a good Rating on IMDb right now (8.2), but with only 55 votes in the can, it could change quite a bit when it’s released. It’s worth noting that there are only three titles in the November Ultimate leagues with a $2 price tag (the others being Outrage and I Melt With You), and if I had to guess, I would say that Cook County probably has the best chance to earn a few PTA points. If you have only $2 left on your roster, this is probably worth a look.

My predictions for the weekend of November 11-13, 2011:

1. Puss in Boots - $26 million
2. Jack and Jill - $24 million
3. Tower Heist - $16 million
4. J. Edgar - $13 million
5. Immortals - $12 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the winter season gets kicked into its highest gear, as it will herald the release of Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, the penultimate chapter in the teenage vampire-werewolf saga. Also on tap is Happy Feet Two, the sequel to the hit animated film of 2006, and (in limited release) The Descendants, a comedic drama from director Alexander Payne (Sideways) and starring George Clooney.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Leif Garrett (1970’s singer/teen idol) (50 on 11/8)
Morley Safer (60 Minutes) (80 on 11/8)
Lou Ferrigno (the original Incredible Hulk) (60 on 11/9)
Devon Bostick (Rodrick in the Wimpy Kid films) (20 on 11/13)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Puss in Boots $36 million (Megamind managed to make $7 million last Veteran's Day, which fell on a Thursday. With Veteran's Day falling on a Friday, it could have a $10 million Friday and possibly increase from the second week totals.)
2. Jack and Jill $18 million (buzz seems very flat for this one)
3. Tower Heist $16 million
4. Immortals $11 million (looks more like Conan than 300)
5. J. Edgar $10 million (early reviews aren't very good)

[numbersix]

It's tough to figure out who will win this weekend. Jack and Jill could be big, but I suspect this weekend could be a dud, and if Tower Heist can underperform, surely yet another dumb Sandler movie may fall in a crowded season.
Immortals looks, sounds, and feel liks Conan, and we all saw what happened to that.
As for J Edgar, it kind of relies on reviews, but it's possibly going to perform along the lines of Invictus or Changeling, getting a few award nominations and being a mid-level performer.

As for PTA, I wouldn't count on Melancholia being a champ. Should do well this weekend but it'll be devoured from then on. Still, 7 PTA is possible but it won't beat The Descendants, The Artist, Skin I Live in, MMMM, etc.

1. Puss in Boots- $30 million
2. Jack and Jill -$28 million
3. Tower Heist- $15 million
4. J. Edgar- $12 million
5. Immortals- $10 million

[transformers2]

I think you guys may be underselling Immortals. I think the fact the advertising has been pretty strong and it looks like 300 gives it a shot. J.Edgar is a question mark and I think Jack and Jill should do pretty well due to Sandler's presence.

1.Jack and Jill 28 Mil
2.Puss In Boots 26 Mil
3.Tower Heist 17 Mil
4.Immortals 16 Mil
5. J.Edgar 11 Mil

[Geezer]

Jack and Jill = Bucky Larson with star power. It's going to bomb harder than anything in recent memory. I doubt it breaks 10 million.

[undeadmonkey]

I can't see Jack and Jill being huge either, not even to sandlers usual $100M. I wouldn't compare it to Bucky Larson though, more Norbit. $15M weekend with $60-$75 total.

[Geezer]

You see it getting a 4-5 times multiplier? Terrible movies dont tend to have good legs

[Buscemi]

The difference between 300 and Immortals is that 300 was a much easier sell (trailers that got people talking, source material being a graphic novel from a famous writer and lots and lots of machismo). Immortals is from an arthouse director and looks rather low-rent (it also looks like it's lacking in terms of plot).

[undeadmonkey]

a lot of holiday movies have fantastic multiplier. a 5 might be a little high but a 4 is very likely.

[englishozzy]

We have had near no advertising for Jack and Jill over here and the trailer looks awful, even for a Sandler film. I can see the film flopping Kung Fu Panda 2 bad.

1. Puss in Boots - $28 million
2. Tower Heist - $20 million
3. Jack and Jill - $14 million
4. J.Edgar - $13 million
5. Immortals - $12 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Any other time, I would think Jack & Jill would perform like Zohan - looks terrible but somehow climbs to $100M.

But the way that the movie marketplace has been since The Help/Rise of The Planet of The Apes opened, I can easily see it underperforming - maybe only a OW in the high teens, and a total of only $40-$50M.

Which is a disaster for an Adam Sandler flick.

[Buscemi]

Another thing about Jack and Jill: it may be the first trailer I've seen on YouTube to have an higher amount of dislikes than likes (and from what I remember, the dislikes were about 2 to 1).

The only other trailer I remember having more dislikes than likes: Creature. And we all saw how that performed.

[transformers2]

Another thing about Jack and Jill: it may be the first trailer I've seen on YouTube to have an higher amount of dislikes than likes (and from what I remember, the dislikes were about 2 to 1).

The only other trailer I remember having more dislikes than likes: Creature. And we all saw how that performed.

YouTube dislikes is a terrible way to judge the success of a movie. I'm not saying Jack and Jill is a surefire hit, but I wouldn't say it would tank based on YouTube dislikes.

[ROBDude]

Another thing about Jack and Jill: it may be the first trailer I've seen on YouTube to have an higher amount of dislikes than likes (and from what I remember, the dislikes were about 2 to 1).

The only other trailer I remember having more dislikes than likes: Creature. And we all saw how that performed.

Bucky Larson also got a lot of dislikes on YouTube, but it's dislikes are less than the dislikes received for the Jack and Jill Trailer.

[Geezer]

Another thing about Jack and Jill: it may be the first trailer I've seen on YouTube to have an higher amount of dislikes than likes (and from what I remember, the dislikes were about 2 to 1).

The only other trailer I remember having more dislikes than likes: Creature. And we all saw how that performed.

YouTube dislikes is a terrible way to judge the success of a movie. I'm not saying Jack and Jill is a surefire hit, but I wouldn't say it would tank based on YouTube dislikes.

It may not be a great judge, but it IS worth noting. Youtube is powerful, and if people hate your trailer, they aren't going to show up at your movie, especially for a movie like this. The Youtube generation is a big part of this film's target audience, and they won't show up. I'm sticking with bomb of epic proportions. 12/35.