SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/4/11

[Buscemi]

I've seen projections on Puss in Boots as high as $33 million (for a drop of 1%!). And when I went to see Tower Heist today (at a suburb theatre that just opened yesterday), there was a huge line for the 3-D version.

[W]

Yeah, it doesn't seem much like Puss is holding per se, but like the first weekend was deflated and the second is carrying some of that weight... if that makes any sense to anyone else.

[Geezer]

It does, W. The opening was softer then expected (which I pin on the reasons listed above) and now its catching up. Its not a movie people didn't want to see.

[Buscemi]

Friday is Veteran's Day. Megamind got $7 million last Veteran's Day (a Thursday, no less). With a weak field, Puss in Boots could actually increase in its third week.

Edit: And Deadline is claiming $33 million on Puss in Boots. With current projections, the second week drop will be an incredible 1.3%. This would be the tenth smallest second weekend drop ever for a movie in over 3,000 theatres (and the smallest ever in the same amount for a non-Holiday weekend).

[Ron Burgundy]

Hmm, very interesting. After seeing the puss in boots trailer before Tintin, i thought it look pretty funny, but could it have been a weak OW because of the change in release dates? Either way, that weekend was pretty terrible in terms of BO, Tower Heist would have benefited if it moved to the same weekend. The Rum Diary was underwhelming and In Time doesnt have much pull by the looks. But what do u think will be the sleeper hit of December? The Sitter might just do it

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Hmm, very interesting. After seeing the puss in boots trailer before Tintin, i thought it look pretty funny, but could it have been a weak OW because of the change in release dates? Either way, that weekend was pretty terrible in terms of BO, Tower Heist would have benefited if it moved to the same weekend. The Rum Diary was underwhelming and In Time doesnt have much pull by the looks. But what do u think will be the sleeper hit of December? The Sitter might just do it

The Sitter probably, but I think Young Adult could also break out if they start marketing it a little better.

[Aquamann2001]

So the sitter and young adult are the movies were all gonna add this season?

[Geezer]

not me

[transformers2]

Yeah not me either, they are too risky.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Puss in Boots, $33.0M (down 3%... wow)
4 points - Tower Heist, $25.1M
3 points - Harold & Kumar Xmas, $13.1M
2 points - Paranormal Activity 3, $8.5M
1 point - In Time, $7.7M
Footloose, $4.5M
Real Steel, $3.4M
The Rum Diary, $3.0M
The Ides of March, $2.0M
Moneyball, $1.9M

PTA (Sep/Oct leagues):
5 points - Like Crazy, $16,875
4 points - Puss in Boots, $8,336
3 points - Tower Heist, $7,450
2 points - Martha Marcy May Marlene, $4,806
1 point - Harold & Kumar Xmas, $4,544

[Buscemi]

War Horse and Pariah will be the December sleepers.

[Chienfantome]

Pariah ? Really ? You see Pariah being a sleeper hit ?

[Buscemi]

It has a Precious feel to it. Also, there isn't many urban films out there at the moment and could easily go wide.

[Chienfantome]

I don't see it breaking out. I'll keep an eye on it, but I doubt it.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals:

Top 10:
5 points - Puss in Boots, $33.1M
4 points - Tower Heist, $24.0M
3 points - Harold & Kumar Xmas, $13.0M
2 points - Paranormal Activity 3, $8.3M
1 point - In Time, $7.5M
Footloose, $4.5M
Real Steel, $3.4M
The Rum Diary, $2.9M
The Ides of March, $1.9M
Moneyball, $1.8M

PTA (Sep/Oct leagues):
5 points - Like Crazy, $16,657
4 points - Puss in Boots, $8,341
3 points - Tower Heist, $7,135
2 points - Martha Marcy May Marlene, $4,651
1 point - Harold & Kumar Xmas, $4,506

This distribution, ironically, means that Like Crazy, Martha Marcy AND The Skin I Live In all have exactly 10 PTA points. Real Steel also had 10 PTA points in the October leagues only.

PTA (Nov leagues):
5 points - Tower Heist, $7,135
4 points - Harold & Kumar Xmas, $4,506
3 points - The Son of No One, $1,802