SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/4/11

[Shrykespeare]

On the one hand, Puss in Boots’s $34 million OW was the lowest total for any DreamWorks animated film since 2006’s Bee Movie. On the other, however, it broke the record for the highest OW for Halloween weekend, just barely surpassing the $33.6 million bar set by Saw III five years ago. Now comes the big question: will Puss have (furry) legs, especially with all the competition coming up? Only time will tell. Kudos also to those select few who opted for Like Crazy, which kicked ass in the PTA category this past week.

November is when we officially begin the winter season. Yes, I know, Puss in Boots jumped the gun last week in much the same way that Fast Five jump-started the summer season in April, but now that the calendar has turned, we can expect the usual admixture of big-budget family fare and potential Oscar winners spread evenly over the next two months. It is one of the toughest seasons to predict, given that there is so much potential quality. But that’s why I’m here, putting my 40%-accurate reputation on the line just for you! (Ducking…)

If you haven’t yet entered the two-round Mini Super tournament, please consider doing so. It’s really easy: in Ultimate, the player that amasses the most total points over the Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb seasons wins; in Box Office, it’s the player with the highest aggregate dollar amount. It will help span the gap between now and January, when the Super Leagues will start all over again.

Kicking off November are only three movies, two wide and one limited. With such a small number on tap, you can rest assured that all three of these films will garner at least three PTA points this weekend. The one that could very well end up #1 in both PTA and Top 5 this weekend is
Tower Heist, the latest film from director Brett Ratner, the man behind the camera for such films as X-Men: The Last Stand, Red Dragon and all three Rush Hour movies. But never has he had a cast with as much cinematic experience or combined blockbusters as he has here: Eddie Murphy, Ben Stiller, Matthew Broderick, and Casey Affleck lead the way, and behind them are Alan Alda, Gabourey Sidibe, Michael Pena, Judd Hirsch and Tea Leoni.

The premise: the hard-working staff of a prestigious NYC high-rise apartment building learns that their collective life’s savings has been wiped out because of a Ponzi scheme orchestrated by one of the building’s tenants, a Wall Street businessman named Arthur Shaw (Alda). With no other recourse, building manager Josh Kovacs (Stiller) assembles a ragtag group of disgruntled employees to rob Shaw’s secret stash of cash that he has hidden somewhere in his luxurious penthouse, along with Slide (Murphy), a petty crook that Josh enlists to help them.

Both Stiller and Murphy have been very hit-and-miss over the past few years (mostly miss), but Tower Heist looks like it could represent a return to form for all involved: Murphy playing the wisecracking con hearkens back to his roles in 48 HRS and Trading Places, and Stiller looks to be playing a low-key straight man for once, and doing it very well. (FYI: our old buddy Nico saw this movie last week, and he told me that it was fantastic, easily Ratner’s best work, and even Leoni wasn’t the usual piece of lumber she usually is. That’s good enough for me.)

The last time a cast this notable was assembled for a heist movie was the Ocean’s Integers series. I’m not sure if this will be the start of a franchise, but it should do quite well. For a price tag of only $21 in the November Ultimate leagues ($22 in Box Office), I predict ten Top 5 points, four or five PTA, a very decent Rating in the 7’s, and a $36 million OW on its way to just over $100 million. Will those number stack up against those that are likely to be put up by the titans coming later in the month? Probably not, but Tower Heist would seem to be a worthy title to kick off the season.

It was seven years ago that Kal Penn and John Cho teamed up for the stoner comedy Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle. It chronicled the misadventures of college buddies Harold Lee (Cho) and Kumar Patel (Penn) as they attempted to get to their favorite hamburger joint to satisfy the serious munchies they got from the copious amounts of marijuana they smoked. It only made a modest $18 million in theaters, but found new life on DVD, which prompted a sequel in 2008, Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay. That film did moderately better, earning $38 million in an early-summer release.

The third chapter in the saga, A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Xmas, will hit about 2,800 theaters this Friday. What can we expect? The usual: profanity, drugs, sex, nudity, alcohol, and the seemingly indestructible Neil Patrick Harris playing himself, again. Taking place six years after the last installment, Harold and Kumar have gone their separate ways. Reuniting for Christmas, Kumar inadvertently burns down the Christmas tree belonging to Harold’s father-in-law (Danny Trejo… uh-oh), and so the pair must scour the streets of New York searching for a replacement… and finding trouble at every turn.

Look, if you’ve seen even five minutes of either of the previous films, you know what 3D Xmas will bring. It’ll be rude, crude and most likely hysterical. But will it be a success? Probably not. It will run you only $9 (in both leagues), but I think you can expect only about three Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating in the high 6’s, and $30 million. Not bad, but in this most crucial of seasons, you can probably do better.

The one limited release this week is The Son of No One, a release from Anchor Bay Films that is directed by Dito Monteil (who also directed the so-so A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints and the appallingly awful Fighting). It tells the story of Jonathan White (Channing Tatum, who also starred in Fighting), a young cop assigned to a precinct in the Queens neighborhood where he grew up, and trying to scratch out a living to provide for his wife and sick daughter. However, his life is turned upside-down when evidence surfaces about the unsolved murder of two boys and a possible police cover-up, which sets off a chain of events that threatens to engulf the entire neighborhood. There are some quite recognizable names in the supporting cast, not the least of which is Al Pacino, along with Ray Liotta, Juliette Binoche, Katie Holmes and Tracy Morgan.

In any other week, I’d probably tell you to forget about this title. The reviews have been so-so (3/6 positive so far), and the User Rating won’t do you any favors either (5.6 with nearly 1,500 votes). It’s got a decent platform at only ten locations. The better news is, it will only cost you $3, so if you are looking for an eighth pick to round out your slates, and you want to pick a film that will net you a guaranteed three PTA points, The Son of No One may suffice. There are, after all, only a handful of movies that are priced below $5 this season (and none at all are in January), and the similarly-themed Brooklyn’s Finest failed to produce any meaningful stats despite an equally-impressive cast. You decide.


My predictions for the weekend of November 4-6, 2011:

1. Tower Heist - $36 million
2. Puss in Boots - $22 million
3. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Xmas - $10 million
4. Paranormal Activity 3 - $8 million
5. In Time - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, some more of Hollywood’s finest take center stage, both in front of and behind the camera, as five films debut between November 9-11, including: J. Edgar, a biopic from Clint Eastwood starring Leonardo DiCaprio as the enigmatic FBI founder; Jack and Jill, a comedy starring Adam Sandler in a dual role as twin brother and sister; Immortals, a swords-and-sandals epic starring Mickey Rourke; as well as two limited-release features, Cook County and Melancholia (the latest from noteworthy director Lars Von Trier).

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Peter Jackson (LOTR director) (50 on 10/31)
Ralph Macchio (The Karate Kid, My Cousin Vinny) (50 on 11/4)
Art Garfunkel (singer) (70 on 11/5)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Puss in Boots $29 million
2. Tower Heist $28 million (I haven't really heard much buzz for this one)
3. Harold and Kumar 3 $10 million
4. Paranormal Activity 3 $6 million
5. In Time $5 million

[W]

I liked the first two Harold and Kumars, but after seeing Kal Penn post-White House on How I Met Your Mother so far this season, my want to see the third film is dwindling. He really has been sucking the fun out of one of my favorite series on TV.

[Buscemi]

I thought the writers and cast's refusal to get to the point was killing the fun of the series.

[W]

I thought the writers and cast's refusal to get to the point was killing the fun of the series.

[Buscemi]

Let me explain:

The show is called "How I Met Your Mother". Who's the mother? You don't need this many seasons to reveal that answer.

If they had an actual direction to put the show, they would have revealed it long ago.

[numbersix]

Tower Heist seems like an event film. It has been getting a lot of press over here, and in a weak early November (there's really not much of interest happening until Twilight skulks out again) this has the potential to shine. A big name cast that will appeal to adults and the light tone will keep audiences coming.
Harold and Kumar's Christmas bash feels a little too early for comfort, but it does have a built-in fanbase.
And I'm staying away from Son of No One. May only get 1 PTA point.

1. Tower Heist - $32 million
2. Puss in Boots - $24 million
3. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Xmas - $11 million
4. Paranormal Activity 3 - $7 million
5. In Time - $6 million

[W]

It's a tv show who's primary purpose is to make someone laugh. It does that for me. It's also more of an ensemble comedy than it was originally intended because Jason Segel, NPH, and Alyson Hannigan are really funny. It also is meant to show you all the women he seriously dated on the path to finding the kids' mother. When they're ready, and I don't see how they haven't lost Jason Segel or NPH yet, they'll give you the last season and all the seasons will be connected.

I just realized this is the Speare's Tips thread... I pretty much open every single thread with new posts then go through them all so I seriously don't know which one I'm in sometimes.

[Shrykespeare]

The Son of No One CAN'T get only one PTA point, at least not in the November leagues. Since only the November films count as far as PTA goes, and because there's only three films coming out, it means that one film will get 5 PTA, one will get 4 PTA, and one will get 3 PTA. So The Son of No One can't end up with less than three.

[numbersix]

Of course! Sorry, Shryke, I totally forgot about the new month rule. Yes, it will get 3 PTA points guaranteed!

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Tower Heist - 3,367
Harold & Kumar - 2,875
The Son of No One - 10


Estimates for Next Week:

Immortals - 3,000
Jack and Jill - 3,000+
J. Edgar - 7 on 11/9, 1,900+ on 11/11
Melancholia - N/A
Cook County - N/A

[Buscemi]

Friday and Weekend Estimates (from Box Office Guru):

Tower Heist $8.1 million Friday/$23 million weekend
Puss in Boots $7.8 million Friday/$30 million weekend (looking at a 9% drop for the weekend)
Harold and Kumar 3 $5.4 million Friday/$14 million weekend
Paranormal Activity 3 $2.9 million Friday/$10 million weekend
In Time $2.5 million Friday/$8 million weekend

So my $29 million prediction for Puss in Boots will still be under.

[Chienfantome]

Damn disappointing numbers from Tower Heist !!!

[Buscemi]

As I said, they weren't really promoting it much in the US. And the Rave chain (which recently swallowed up National Amusements) apparently refused to play it (due to Universal attempting to do a premium VOD format with it around Thanksgiving, which was later canceled due to the hefty $59.99 price tag and Cinemark threatening not to play it either).

[Geezer]

I'm excited about the strong hold for Puss in Boots. I knew it would hold strong, with last weekend being both Halloween and a massive northeast snowstorm which knocked out power (some still dont have it) for hundreds of thousands. I have it on several slates so a second straight win is much needed.