SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/28/11

[Shrykespeare]

Paranormal Activity 3 stunned everyone by earning $54 million this past weekend, disproving the notion that the “found footage” horror genre is dead in its tracks. If it can somehow hold well in the days leading up to Halloween (and especially with no competition in the horror category), it should easily past PA2 in total output, and may even make a run at the original’s total of $107 million from 2009. Kudos also to Martha Marcy May Marlene, which snatched the PTA victory out of the capable hands of both PA3 and The Skin I Live In (in its second week).

The upcoming week will mark two milestones: first off, it will signal the end of yet another round of Super Leagues, thus trimming the already-reduced number of contestants in each tournament even further, with only one final cut to come after this one; and secondly, the start of the two-round Mini Supers, which will span the gap between now and the start of the 2012 Super Leagues. The rules are simple: enter both rounds. The person with the highest combined dollar total (in Box Office) and point total (in Ultimate) wins. If you think it’s an inconsequential tournament, how about this for a prize… whoever wins the tournament will earn an automatic IM in whatever tournament he/she wishes in the 2012 Super Leagues. How about that?! Expect an announcement/bulk e-mail from me in the next few days, as soon as the January movies are added to the master list and the leagues are created.

Five movies will be coming out this Friday, the final Friday of October: three wide, one limited, and one limited with a wide expansion planned in ensuing weeks. The most notable, Puss in Boots, is taking a page out of the same manual that Fast Five did; that is, to start the next big “season” of movies one week earlier than expected. This animated film, the latest from DreamWorks, is the first official big-screen spinoff from the Shrek franchise, which concluded last summer.

Most people don’t know this, but the character of Puss in Boots actually comes from a French fairy tale (not a Spanish one), created way back in the late 17th century. But it has since been reinvigorated by DreamWorks and voiced by Antonio Banderas, who gives Puss the same swarthy tones that he did when he played Zorro. Puss in Boots is actually a prequel, relating the events that led up to his fateful and life-changing meeting with Shrek and Donkey. In the beginning, you see, he was just a swashbuckling hero who protected this innocent. One day, he learns that two murderous thugs named Jack and Jill (Billy Bob Thornton and Amy Sedaris) have discovered an ancient power that can destroy the world. And so, with his female counterpart Kitty Softpaws (Salma Hayek) and his friend Humpty Dumpty (Zach Galifianakis) in tow, Puss sets forth on his most dangerous adventure ever.

Even when the Shrek franchise started losing steam, it still managed to earn over $200 million. But those films had the benefit of all being released in May. Puss may indeed be the most spinoff-worthy character in Shrek-dom, but will that be enough to make it a success? I have to believe it will… for the first three weeks, anyway. After that, a whole bevy of animated and live-action animated films will come down the cinematic conveyor belt: Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked and Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn will all be out between now and New Year’s.

However, before we go off half-cocked and predict a major landslide victory for Puss (which will be getting a terrific release platform, at over 3,800 theaters), keep in mind that Kung Fu Panda 2 - DreamWorks' last outing - was supposed to be huge, and it wasn’t, even in the throes of summer. It will easily win its OW, however, to the tune of $47 million, eleven Top 5, five PTA and a very respectable Rating. I can’t imagine Puss making much less than $150 million overall, a worthy choice to lead off the ten-week run of holiday blockbusters to close out the year. For a hefty $29 in Ultimate ($30 in Box Office), you should get a $5M/$1 return on investment. That’s probably lower than you’ll get for Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, but it’s also one of the few films that we can reasonably expect success for.

Slightly murkier are the prospects of In Time, a futuristic thriller from director/writer Andrew Niccol (Gattaca). Previously titled Now and I’m.mortal, In Time takes place in an alternative future where the “aging” gene in human beings has been deactivated; as a result, people stop getting older once they hit 25 years old. However, subcutaneously stamped in their arms is a moving clock, a clock that determines how much time they have left to live. Time is now the currency in which people are paid, and for which those same people pay for necessities and luxuries. Such is the price of eternal youth, a price that allows the super-wealthy to basically live forever.

Will Salas (Justin Timberlake) is a poor man desperately trying to scrounge whatever time he can for himself and his mother (Olivia Wilde) when fate takes a turn: a fed-up-with-it-all rich man, prior to committing suicide, bequeaths all of his time to Will… like, decades worth of time. Before he knows it, Will is forced to go on the run from a corrupt FBI-like police force called The Timekeepers, as well as a gang called the Minutemen. Amanda Seyfried, Cillian Murphy, and Alex Pettyfer also co-star.

I love films like this, where you take a similar society like ours, set it in the “near future”, and give it a sci-fi twist... films like Total Recall, I Robot, Surrogates and the like. But like any genre, it is susceptible to the usual rules; the most notable being, you need tons of effects or a truly big-name star to make it more appealing to the masses. And no matter how many millions of records Justin Timberlake has sold, he has not yet proven that he can carry a movie all by himself.

In Time will cost you $14 (in both October leagues). I think it will easily snag the #3 spot this weekend behind Puss in Boots and Paranormal Activity 3 (which I expect to tumble between 50-60%). With a 3,000-plus theater count under its belt, I foresee $13 million in its first three days, on its way to four Top 5 points, a Rating around 6.3 and $44 million overall. I would definitely pass on this one, except possibly for Bankrupts.

No one would argue that Johnny Depp is still one of the most popular and versatile actors working today. The roles he has chosen over the last 25 years have been as varied and disparate as you will find on any actor’s resume, ever. But no actor can hit a home run every time. Depp seems to draw the biggest crowd when he’s playing a flamboyant or eclectic character like Jack Sparrow, The Mad Hatter or Willa Wonka. When he plays otherwise normal people… well, people tend to care less. Just saying, that seems to be the pattern. It’s the only way I can explain the underwhelming outputs of recent Depp outings like The Tourist and Public Enemies.

In The Rum Diary (which is based on the novel by Hunter S. Thompson, who also wrote Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas), Depp plays Paul Kemp, a journalist who travels to Puerto Rico in the 1950’s to take on a freelance job there… as well as adopt the rum-soaked lifestyle. Along the way, he becomes obsessed with a girl named Chenault (Amber Heard), the wife of an entrepreneur (Aaron Eckhart) who is determined to convert Puerto Rico into a capitalist paradise. Richard Jenkins and Giovanni Ribisi also co-star.

The release platform for The Rum Diary, which is being distributed by FilmDistrict (whose track record has been less than impressive) is around 2,100 theaters. I will peg it for a $9 million OW based on Depp’s name alone, which means it will finish with only one or two Top 5 points at most, a Rating that is anybody’s guess, and $25 million. It only costs $8 (in both leagues), but I wouldn’t recommend spending even that little on it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

Anonymous ($12 Ult, $13 BO) – It wasn’t until recently that it was announced that this drama from Sony/Columbia and director Roland Emmerich was going to start off small – in around 200 theaters – before going wide. This is a huge departure for Emmerich, whose bread and butter has been big-budget disaster films (2012, The Day After Tomorrow), sci-fi films (Indepedence Day, Stargate) or sweeping historical films (The Patriot, 10,000 B.C.). It’s been some time since Emmerich has aimed this small.

One of the oldest conspiracy theories is that William Shakespeare, the 16th century playwright who is arguably the most famous writer in history, responsible for immortal works such as Romeo and Juliet, Macbeth and Hamlet, did not actually write his own stuff, but merely took credit for it. Anonymous explores this possibility, espousing that the literary works sprang instead from the mind of Edward de Vere (Rhys Ifans), the Earl of Oxford and the illegitimate son of Queen Elizabeth (Vanessa Redgrave). The theory is, de Vere’s place in royal society disallowed him to claim credit for the genius of his work, credit for which was instead given to a failed, unscrupulous actor named, you guessed it, William Shakespeare (Rafe Spall). Joely Richardson, David Thewlis and Sir Derek Jacobi also co-star.

It’s an interesting theory, perhaps even one worth exploring. However, as a choice for your slates, it’s utterly fruitless. 200 theaters is too many for viable PTA points, and too few to expect any Top 5 points or dollars grossed. The price tag is more than double what this film should be, in retrospect. Do not take Anonymous for anything but Bankrupts.

Like Crazy ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – Director Drake Doremus (Douchebag) is behind the camera for this drama, which actually won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance earlier this year. It stars rising young actor Anton Yelchin (Fright Night) as Jacob, an American student who falls in love with a visiting British collegian named Anna (The Tempest’s Felicity Jones). However, their relationship hits a snag when her overstays her visit after her student visa expires, and the two are forced into a long-distance relationship after she is denied re-entry into the U.S. The ubiquitous Jennifer Lawrence also co-stars.

It’s the age-old question: can true love survive being separated by thousands of miles? It’s a concept that has been used as the central theme for many movies over the years (most recently in the so-so rom-com Going the Distance). If it helps your decision-making process, the critics are over the moon for Like Crazy (14/17 positive at RT), praising the film for its “genuine performances”, it’s “complexity”, and calling it “exquisitely, beautifully acted”. It is debuting in only four theaters this Friday. Will it have enough PTA to top Martha Marcy May Marlene and The Skin I Live In? For $4, I would say that it’s definitely worth the risk.


My predictions for the weekend of October 28-30, 2011:

1. Puss in Boots - $47 million
2. Paranormal Activity 3 - $25 million
3. In Time - $13 million
4. The Rum Diary - $9 million
5. Real Steel – $8 million
6. Footloose – $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the penultimate month of the year begins with three new films, all scheduled for release on November 4th: Tower Heist, a high-octane crime comedy starring Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy; A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Xmas, the latest escapades of stoner buddies played by Kal Penn and John Cho; and The Son of No One, a crime thriller starring Al Pacino, Channing Tatum and Juliette Binoche.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Craig Robinson (Hot Tub Time Machine) (40 on 10/25)
Helen Reddy (singer) (70 on 10/25)
Dylan McDermott (The Messengers) (50 on 10/26)
Harry Hamlin (Clash of the Titans [1980], L.A. Law) (60 on 10/30)
Ivanka Trump (The Apprentice) (30 on 10/30)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Puss in Boots $52 million (even if you hated Shrek, you still liked Puss)
2. Paranormal Activity 3 $16 million
3. In Time $12 million (has Andrew Niccol ever had a hit?)
4. The Rum Diary $8 million
5. Real Steel $7 million
-- The Three Musketeers $4 million
-- Johnny English Reborn $3 million (many of the trailers and posters listed October 28th, so it could lead to a small drop from people thinking it opens this week)
-- Anonymous $3 million

[Shrykespeare]

I don't think I'll ever hear this Lady Gaga song without thinking about Puss. I like it.

[numbersix]

I remember reading a while ago that Rum Diary was tracking very well, but it just feels likw it won't achieve much, even with Depp's help. Puss should do really well, though I'm dubious that it will beat Megamind. People are tired of Shrek and even though Puss was a good character, will it be enough for audiences to forgive and flock to the cinema?

Like Crazy could win the weekend in PTA, though there's a lot of competition this week, surprisingly.

1. Puss in Boots - $41 million
2. Paranormal Activity 3 - $21 million
3. In Time - $12 million
4. The Rum Diary - $8 million
5. Real Steel – $7 million

[Buscemi]

People forgave The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift with Fast and Furious. And Paranormal Activity 3 will surpass Paranormal Activity 2 despite the average reception of the second film. It won't be much of a challenge for Puss in Boots to do well. The trailer reaction has been excellent and Puss was the best thing about the sequels.

As for comparing to Megamind: Megamind was a sci-fi film that basically played as a dumber version of Monsters vs. Aliens. Puss in Boots is much more audience-friendly.

[numbersix]

I find it helps to not separate children's movies by genre (sci-fi, comedy, etc) but simply regard them a single genres: children's. So calling Megamind a sci-fi film isn't entirely accurate. It has sci-fi elements but it's really a comedy for kids. Hence my comparison between Puss and Megamind, it's really about time of the year.

Of course there's Madagascar 2 which opened to 60mil or so 3 years back. But.... none of them were released during the dreaded Halloween weekend slot. Either Puss will avail of its gap (like Fast and Furious did with the late April slump) or will underperform slightly due to the weekend of going out to house parties/trick-r-treating etc.

[Buscemi]

Halloween falls on a Monday this year. Family films always drop big on Monday.

Shark Tale opened in October and was the #1 movie for three weeks straight.

On Megamind: sci-fi and animation traditionally don't mix well financially. Other than Wall-E and Monsters vs. Aliens, can you name one that's done well or performed above expectations? Star Wars: The Clone Wars flopped, Delgo flopped, Battle For Terra flopped, Planet 51 flopped, Megamind underperformed and Mars Needs Moms flopped.

[ROBDude]

Halloween falls on a Monday this year. Family films always drop big on Monday.

Shark Tale opened in October and was the #1 movie for three weeks straight.

On Megamind: sci-fi and animation traditionally don't mix well financially. Other than Wall-E and Monsters vs. Aliens, can you name one that's done well or performed above expectations? Star Wars: The Clone Wars flopped, Delgo flopped, Battle For Terra flopped, Planet 51 flopped, Megamind underperformed and Mars Needs Moms flopped.

According to it's Wikipedia Page, Star Wars: The Clone Wars was actually a Moderate Box Office Success.

[ROBDude]

Here's my Top 5:

1. Puss in Boots $40 Million
2. In Time $37 Million
3. Paranormal Activity 3 $31 Million
4. Real Steel $10 Million
5. The Rum Diary $8 Million

[Buscemi]

But Star Wars: The Clone Wars didn't even come close to the other Star Wars movies. Grossing less than a tenth of Revenge of the Sith is a failure.

[numbersix]

Halloween falls on a Monday this year. Family films always drop big on Monday.Shark Tale opened in October and was the #1 movie for three weeks straight.

Yep, both good points, I'll buy that.

On Megamind: sci-fi and animation traditionally don't mix well financially. Other than Wall-E and Monsters vs. Aliens, can you name one that's done well or performed above expectations? Star Wars: The Clone Wars flopped, Delgo flopped, Battle For Terra flopped, Planet 51 flopped, Megamind underperformed and Mars Needs Moms flopped.

I think this is a case of trying to see a trend that's not really there. Delgo and Terra were terribly marketed and put against similar genre films that were better marketing and obviously going to take all of their business. The Clone Wars suffered from Star Wars backlash. Planet 51 and Mars I'll give you. But then there's other examples like Lilo and Stitch (as much sci-fi as Mars Needs Moms), The Incredibles, Robots, Meet the Robinsons, Jimmy Neutron, all of which did relatively well. I don't think the audience who these films are aimed for are particularly affected either way about how much sci-fi is involved, when for the most part they're really all fantasy movies.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think In Time will do better than $12-$13M, but nowhere near ROB's $37M prediction.

More like $18-20M, I think people are intruiged by the concept.

1. Puss In Boots - $50M
2. Paranormal Activity - $24M
3. In Time - $18M
4. The Rum Diary - $9M
5. Real Steel - $7M

[Brockster]

Busc wrote:

(even if you hated Shrek, you still liked Puss)

We're still talking about movies, right? Cuz if not this is the most captain obvious statement the boards have ever seen.

[transformers2]

^Well played Brockster. This weekend should be an interesting one, I think Puss In Boots will do well. I don't think it will be a crazy, breakout hit (200 mil+ territory), but it should be able to rake in 150 mil or so during it's run. In Time is a puzziling one for me. I am expecting a mid-range opener, but it could go higher. The Rum Diary could surprise people. Fear and Loathing had a cult following, so the combination of Hunter. S Thompson adaptation and Johnny Depp could drive audiences in. Here are my predictions for the weekend...
1. Puss In Boots $46 Mil
2.Paranormal Activity 3 $14 Mil (the drop is going to be gigantic)
3.In Time $13 Mil
4.The Rum Diary $10 Mil
5.Real Steel $8 Mil

[undeadmonkey]

I think Halloween will affect puss n boots more than some think. Yes it's on Monday but I bet some will have their parties on Sunday with some even going trick r treating then. Also, people spend a lot of money for it, candies, costumes, decorations, etc. Im thinking a few might skip the movies this weekend to save a bit of money. As far as I can remember there haven't been any huge openings ever on Halloween weekend, $35m-$40m sounds about right.
Also agree with tranny, pa3 should have a humongous drop. (although I I thought it wouldn't open to more than $30m, so what do I know )