SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

It’s just amazing. I went over my old list of e-mail addresses, from Fantaversians that I haven’t heard from in months or more, and told them that a brand new Moguls game had been created, and what do you know? Our participation nearly doubles overnight. I think we owe our Italian friends another round of applause, for creating what may very well be the next brick in the foundation for the coolest partnership of movie-related websites in existence. (Yeah, I know, but I can dream…)

We are now less than two weeks away from the release of Avatar, James Cameron’s first major project since declaring himself the “king of the world” after Titanic ran away with the all-time box office record (both foreign and domestic) and nearly every Oscar it was nominated for. Whether Avatar will pack even one-fourth the punch that Titanic did remains to be seen. In the meantime, there are a few more movies to talk about, all of which will be released widely this Friday, December 11th.

Clint Eastwood has been a legend in Hollywood for nearly five decades. The steely-eyed, gravelly-voiced former mayor of Carmel, California put his stamp on filmdom in a host of classic spaghetti Westerns and crime dramas. But since the early 90’s, he has become one of Tinseltown’s most venerated directors, and rightly so. Having helmed such critical darlings as Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima, Eastwood (who will be 80 years old next year), shows no signs of stopping. Directing, anyway.

He had two other very noteworthy projects last year: Changeling received three Oscar noms (including one for Angelina Jolie for Best Actress), but his performance as a racist war veteran in Gran Torino – which may just be Eastwood’s swan song as an actor – was almost universally snubbed by all the major awards shows. Why? In my opinion, it was one of the best movies of 2008. True, his character wasn’t exactly warm and fuzzy, and the film was quite brutal at times, but that’s hardly an excuse, as plenty of movies like that have won tons of awards. Well, whatever the reason, I would bet my life that Eastwood’s latest outing, a film called Invictus, will not only not be ignored, but it will receive nominations in just about every major category, including Director, Actor and Adapted Screenplay. The trailer just screams “Nominate me!” from the rooftops.

Invictus – which is Latin for “unconquered” – tells the true story of Nelson Mandela (played by Eastwood’s Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby co-star Morgan Freeman), the former South African leader who was imprisoned for 27 years for his anti-Apartheid activities. Mandela was released in 1990 once Apartheid ended, and was summarily elected President a few years later, the first black man to take that position. But the country was in disarray, as most of the population’s black and white communities were still on opposite sides.

The plot of the movie centers on Mandela’s efforts to unite the country by rallying behind, of all things, South Africa’s rugby team, a true longshot to win despite the fact that South Africa was hosting the 1995 World Rugby Cup. He pleads with the team’s white captain, Francois Pienaar (Matt Damon) to help the country heal itself, by turning the team into a figurehead for national pride.

I’ve read several of the reviews for this film over at RT (90% Fresh, 9/10 so far), and most of them say what exactly what I hoped they’d say. Emmanuel Levy says “What could have been in the hands of another director a schmaltzy, predictable, uplifting, and noble entertainment, is under Eastwood's helm a straight (and straightforward), understated, and subtle tale of a shrewd, charismatic politician.” Variety’s Todd McCarthy says, “Freeman is a constant delight; gradually, one comes to grasp Mandela's political calculations, certitudes and risks, the troubled personal life he keeps mostly out of sight, and his extraordinary talent for bringing people around to his point of view.”

Though it may not win – competition is pretty stiff this year – Invictus looks exactly like the type of film that Awards shows covet. A great story, a great director, a great cast. Whatever peccadillos existed between Clint and TPTB over Gran Torino should be washed away.

However, this is not the kind of movie that’s going to be shown in 3,000 theaters or more (at least, not at first). BOM has Invictus bowing in 2,150 theaters, but could grow to as many as 2,800 depending on the film’s reception and accolades. I don’t think it will be enough to win the box office crown this week, given that The Princess and the Frog will be expanding to over 3,300 locations this same week.

It’s tough to gauge the box office potential of a film like this. Gran Torino started out in less than 100 theaters, but expanded to just under 3,000 theaters in mid-January, topping out at 3,045 screens at the beginning of February. By that point, it had already amassed over $100 million in grosses on the way to $148 million overall. Take THAT, Academy!

Invictus may not do that well, but it’s certainly possible. It will run you $16 in the December Ultimate Leagues ($15 in Box Office, and $14 for the MMG’s “Fantaverse 3” league). If it can beat the red-hot The Blind Side for #2, I believe it will end up with (minimum) seven Top 5 points, five PTA, a sensational User Rating (it’s currently at 8.5 with 100 votes) and $75 million. It could conceivable do a lot more than that and be a staple in theaters all the way through January, especially if it is rewarded with major nominations for the Academy and Golden Globe awards. It’s a gamble, yes, but I think it’s one worth taking.

Also opening wide this week is The Princess and the Frog. Now, as you know, this film was released on two screens right before Thanksgiving, and is therefore unavaible in the ReelSociety leagues now. However, in the MMG league, it is available (for $21), so it’s definitely worth talking about. It is the latest animated neo-classic from Disney Studios, and as such, could be a major player this winter.

If you’ve seen the trailers, you’ll know that this story, which is loosely based on E.D. Baker’s novel The Frog Princess, is kind of a throwback to some of Disney’s most famous films like Snow White, Peter Pan, Lady and the Tramp, as well as more recent classics like The Little Mermaid, The Lion King, Aladdin, Pocahontas and Mulan. That is to say, these are hand-drawn, not computer-drawn, and will be shown in 2D, the first major Disney film to do so since 2004’s Home on the Range.

The Princess and the Frog is directed by Ron Clements and John Musker, the brian trust behind such Disney ventures as The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, Hercules and Treasure Planet. And like those films, you can expect a lot of singing and dancing, hoping to add to the list of Disney films whose music has become timeless and legendary.

It’s a typical fairy-tale story: a free-spirited, jazz-loving Maldonian prince named Naveen (Bruno Campos) makes a deal with a shady witch doctor (Keith David), and when said deal goes bad, Naveen is turned into a frog. Believing that only a kiss from a beautiful girl can restore his humanity, he seeks out a winsome beauty named Tiana (Anika Noni Rose), who agrees to help him, but rather than turning him back into a human, she ends up becoming a frog herself. And so begins the fateful adventure through bayou country and Mardi Gras, searching for that happy ending that you just know is coming. As you might also expect, The Princess and the Frog is rated G, which means that small kids and their parents will be flocking to see this film in droves. It will probably wrestle with Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel for bragging rights for the winter’s biggest kids movie.

True, Disney’s batting average is not what it used to be. But nothing about The Princess and the Frog that I’ve seen tells me that it won’t be a hit. It may not fly to the same heights that The Lion King ($328 million) and Aladdin ($217 million) did, but it could certainly score $150 million before it’s all said and done.

Given its projected theater count, I fully believe that this film will take the box office crown this weekend. In all, I expect ten Top 5 points, four PTA (starting this Friday, not counting the ten it’s already produced in limited release), a User Rating in the 8’s around $140 million. Still, $21? That’s a pretty steep price tag. I don’t know if I can advise you to take it.

Finally, this Friday also marks the debut of The Lovely Bones, which will be bowing in only three theaters, before expanding to several hundred around Christmastime, and then everywhere on January 15th. It is based on the best-selling 2002 book of the same name by Alice Sebold, and is being adapted for the big screen by Lord of the Rings director Peter Jackson.

The story centers on a teenage girl named Susie Salmon (Saoirse Ronan) who, in 1973, was brutally raped and murdered. Her soul finds herself in a heavenly place referred to as “the in-between”, where she gets to watch her family grieve for her and attempt to move on with their lives. She also sees her killer (Stanley Tucci) who, having apparently gotten away with her murder, prepare to kill again. But what can she do?

Judging from the trailer, Jackson blends real-life drama with his trademark special effects wizardry in giving the otherworldly dreamscapes a fantastic life of their own. There is also a fantastic supporting cast in place, including Mark Wahlberg and Rachel Weisz as Susie’s parents, Susan Sarandon as her grandmother and The Sopranos’ Michael Imperioli as the detective trying to solve her murder.

Between this, Invictus and A Single Man, it’s tough to guess just which will emerge as the PTA champion this weekend, but given Jackson’s pedigree, my money’s on The Lovely Bones. It might be a terrific source of PTA despite its rather mediocre RT score (57% on 12/21), which lends itself to the criticism that the effects completely overshadow what is a tremendously emotional story. How well it does in wide release is a lot less certain. Whether it gets any Top 5 points is anybody’s guess, though a decent User Rating is almost a certainty.


My predictions for the weekend of December 4-6, 2009:

1. The Princess and the Frog – $32 million
2. Invictus – $23 million
3. The Blind Side – $13 million
4. Twilight: New Moon – $6 million
5. Brothers - $5 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the wait finally ends as Avatar, James Cameron’s latest CGI monster, hits theaters. This futuristic story of the big bad, human military trying to forcibly relocate a primitive alien race could either be the most talked about movie of winter, or another over-hyped disappointment like Watchmen. Which will it be? I’ll also talk about Did You Hear About the Morgans?, the romantic comedy starring Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker that I was going to talk about today, but it turns out I had the release date wrong. Oops.

Later!
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Avatar will be almost exactly like Watchmen. So-so OW (probably around $50M) and will fall off pretty hard. No matter how good it is, it cannot be as good as all the hype that Cameron has produced about this. And it's a guaranteed money-loser for FOX - come on $500M for a movie? That's insulting to all the lives that could've been saved with that. Instead, it's dropped on mindless entertainment.

Predictions looks good, although $23M might be a tad high for Invictus. Then again, I never expected Gran Torino to open to over $30M last January so...
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by W »

As far as I can tell, they're just guessing at the budget. I've seen $300 M and I've seen $500 M and numbers in between. Avatar is one of those "you did for me, now I'll do for you" type deals. From what I read (assuming the worst budget mentioned), if they make $250 M in theaters, the rest (DVD, on demand, collectibles, video games, etc) should put them in the black.

And if you're a fan of film, I really wouldn't be throwing out those "all the lives that could've been saved" talk. It's not like WTWTA's $100 M budget couldn't have fed and clothed a few Afghanis. It's a business, it's kind of like saying "if they used the money they used for Trump Towers to do something good..." They thought they'd take a gamble with a guy that has a proven track record both financially and award quality, so they rolled the dice. Kind of like when the Rangers signed A-Rod.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Yeah, I usually don't really care about budgets, but half a billion dollars just bottles my mind.

$250M seems like a pretty big If for a movie with blue cat-people who ride dragons.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

Actually thefilms budget is $237M with $150M for advertising campaign. Wichita the budget is less for the latest Harry potter movie, pirates 3 and others that I can't remember. I read it in an article. I would post it but I don't remember the website. And I'm too laz to look for it

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by W »

http://www.slashfilm.com/2009/11/08/ava ... -a-profit/

They spent almost $500 M making the film

http://www.chud.com/articles/articles/2 ... Page1.html

Fox says its $230 M, insiders are guessing $400 M w/o marketing.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/herocom ... rong-.html

"All the reports are false."

Filmmakers have a vested interest in making the budget seem smaller and "journalists" have a vested interest in making the budget seem bigger. Who's right. Probably neither, but I don't really care anyways because my thought is that the budget is an investment by the investors and really shouldn't matter to anyone who hasn't invested in it. Why should I care that Pulp Fiction was made for $8 M? It profited and I think this one will too.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Buscemi »

I'm putting Invictus at an $11 million opening and a $35 million finish.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by numbersix »

What's your reasoning, Buscemi? I only ask because this film has Oscar written all over it. Morgan will certainly got a nomination, if not win. The film is getting good reviews. Mandela is not only a known but an acually revered figure, and his triumph (although I imagine Clint film glosses over the shadier parts of Mandela's past) may sit well with the feel-good nature of the holidays. And it has Matt Damon, which helps.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Buscemi »

Eastwood's historical dramas haven't been very successful. Also, there seems to be a lack of buzz surrounding it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Geezer »

Buscemi wrote:Eastwood's historical dramas haven't been very successful. Also, there seems to be a lack of buzz surrounding it.
Where do you get your "buzz" reports Boosh? You know any Hollywood insiders? And what does it matter what a filmmakers previous historical films have done? Do people actually say "Well Clint's last few historical movies didn't make any money at the box office, I think I should skip this one"? That makes no sense! If a person thinks a movie looks good, they will see it, regardless of what happened in the past. Its not like this is a sequel to those movies. If it were I could see your point, but basically your reasons make no sense.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

Invictus definitely has much more mass appeal than Changeling and Flags of our Fathers. I would be really surprised if it's gross was that low

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

http://cinemablend.com/new/Fox-Admits-I ... 16043.html
I guess it is really expensive.

P.S. I hope Princess Frog makes more than that this weekend. I would really like to see more hand drawn animation again. I'm not asking for five a year, but maybe one every other year or so.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Geezer »

I totally agree with that UDM. I know I'll be seeing it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by transformers2 »

I am very unsure about Invictus and its box office possibllites. Freeman is getting applauded for his performance and i am sure it will be good but box office wise its a complete mystery.

I hope The Lovely Bones is the PTA juggernaut that I think it will be.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/11

Post by Buscemi »

From what I've been seeing in terms of early numbers, The Princess and The Frog is looking at $20-30 million and Invictus is looking at under $10 million.
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