SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Well, hats off to Hugh Jackman and Real Steel, which topped the box office for the second straight week. Who knew boxing robots could be so popular? Kudos must also go to Pedro Almodovar and Antonio Banderas for The Skin I Live In, which won the PTA race by a huge margin and is almost certain to repeat as champion this week.

As we trickle slowly toward the winter season, we will doubtless see an uptick in the quality of films hitting theaters. Just like in summer, from now until New Year’s each weekend (except December 2-4) will bring with it a film that has the potential to make at least $50 million, and quite a few that have blockbuster potential.

It was only two years ago that writer/director Oren Peli, with a five-figure total budget and a series of hand-held and stationary cameras, featuring two completely unknown actors and using his own San Diego home, created a worldwide phenomenon called Paranormal Activity. Opening in just a few theaters, word-of-mouth spread like a plague about it. By the time it went wide, the name was on everybody’s lips, and it went on to gross over $100 million. Talk about a great return on investment.

With the Saw franchise now mercifully concluded, the Paranormal Activity series looks to carry the baton for the foreseeable future for horror fans. Last year, the second chapter, whose events coincided with the events of the first film, had a terrific opening weekend ($40 million) but only managed $84 million total. And now, one year later, the story goes back to its origins in Paranormal Activity 3.

For those who haven’t partaken of this series, let me lay it out: sisters Katie (Katie Featherston) and Kristi (Sprague Grayden) have been haunted since childhood by an unseen, malevolent force that has followed them throughout their lives, causing panic, wreaking havoc and even possessing their bodies to kill their loved ones. But now, we get a prequel of sorts, as we visit the unfortunate girls as children in 1988, when young Katie (Chloe Cesngery) and Kristi (Jessica Tyler Brown) first encounter the demon that will end up making their lives hell.

Beyond that, there’s not a lot to tell you. I’m sure directors Henry Joost and Ariel Schulman will keep the franchise’s stock-in-trade intact by having most of the film shown on strategically-placed cameras, and audiences will have to remain alert for that one clue of the demon’s presence: a rustling curtain, billowing bed-sheet or what have you. If there’s one thing these films are good at, it’s lulling you into a sense of quiet before turning the volume up to eleven with jump-out-at-you scares.

October is usually a haven for horror flicks, but that is not the case this year… I guess that mantle has been passed to January. When did this happen? Point is, there don’t seem to be any more straight-up horror movies scheduled for wide release for the rest of 2011, which is a bit surprising, when you think about it. (Perhaps the genre has finally started to die.)

PA3 will run you $19 in the October Ultimate leagues and $20 in Box Office. I might have predicted it to win two straight weekends… that is, until Puss in Boots movie up one week. Regardless, I envision a terrific OW, in the neighborhood of $31 million. Most horror films tend to drop sharply in its second and third weeks, and I expect the same for PA3, though the dearth of similar competition may slow that drop slightly. I predict eight Top 5 points, three PTA and a Rating around 6.1 for PA3. And in case you’re wondering, it’s gotten very good reviews so far, if that influences your thinking at all.

Paul W.S. Anderson is one of those people who will probably always get work. Most of his projects, whether they be as writer, director or producer usually meet with some success, but never enough to break the bank. The man behind the Resident Evil series as well as the kick-ass remake of Death Race is back behind the camera for another rollicking action flick, set against the backdrop of one of the most well-known adventure novels of all time: The Three Musketeers.

There have been many, many adaptations of the classic Alexandre Dumas story since the dawn of film, the most recent being in 1993, the Disney version starring Chris O’Donnell, Charlie Sheen and Kiefer Sutherland. Anderson’s version, however, will be less light-hearted and more… unbelievable (and in 3D), as it seems to incorporate some steampunk-elements that Dumas certainly never intended, with fight sequences that seem to have been pulled from films like Pirates of the Caribbean and even The Matrix.

The, um, story: a young man, D’Artagnan (Logan Lerman) is determined to join the Musketeers, the elite guard charged with protecting the king of France. However, he arrives too late, as the Musketeers have been disbanded by the nefarious Cardinal Richelieu (Christophe Waltz), who does so as part of a scheme to seize the throne for himself. When a plot involving the mysterious Milady de Winter (Milla Jovovich, Anderson’s real-life wife) comes to light, D’Artagnan joins with three legendary former Musketeers named Athos (Matthew Macfadyen), Porthos (Ray Stevenson) and Aramis (Luke Evans) to foil Richelieu’s plans and protect the King (Freddie Fox) and Queen (Juno Temple) at the same time.

It’s an interesting idea (and it’s good to see Orlando Bloom again), but I’m not entirely sure an action period piece is really everyone’s first choice right now. The fourth Pirates film made far less this past summer than all of its predecessors, and with the swashbuckling Puss in Boots, a far more family-friendly commodity, coming only one week down the road, I believe The Three Musketeers will fall flat at the box office.

A $20 price tag (in both leagues) seemed reasonable three months ago, but now? Not a chance in hell. It might scrape together $14 million on its OW and $40 million overall, along with a few Top 5 points and a middling Rating (currently at 5.7), but that’s it. I really can’t think of a better Bankrupts pick… one-fifth of your budget in return for next to no stats at all? Hell yeah!

In 2003, Rowan Atkinson, the rubber-faced English comedian best known for his roles in Mr. Bean and the Blackadder TV shows, attempted to start up a franchise where he parodied the James Bond films, playing the title role in the film Johnny English. The film made over $100 million in other countries but only managed $28 million in the U.S. And now, eight years later, Atkinson is back with the sequel, Johnny English Reborn.

We rejoin Johnny in Tibet, where he is learning martial arts at a monastery as punishment for fouling up an earlier mission. However, when MI7 learns of a plot by a group of international assassins to murder the Chinese premier, they task English with the task of stopping them. Naturally, he does so with gusto. Gillian Anderson, Rosamund Pike and Dominic West co-star.

What Peter Sellers did so ably in parodying detective work, Atkinson is almost up to the task in the field of espionage, finding a way to get the job done with only a few minor disasters in the interim. All in good fun, but Universal is giving Johnny English Reborn only a teeny-tiny release platform, upwards of 1,500 theaters. That’s not many, and there hasn’t been much advertising, either.

I’ll predict one Top 5 point for Johnny English Reborn simply because I am a lifelong fan of Atkinson, but that’s it. For $8 (in either league), you can expect a $6 million OW, $17 million overall and a Rating in the mid-6’s. Once again, it seems to be the near-perfect Bankrupts pick, which is not the kind of compliment I like to be paying to films that look like they may actually be kind of good.

And to complete the trifecta of overpriced films this week, we have The Mighty Macs, a sports drama from Freestyle Releasing that will be shoved into 1,000 theaters this Friday. This movie, which was actually filmed in 2009, is the story of Cathy Rush (Carla Gugino), a future Hall of Fame coach who led tiny Immaculata College’s women’s basketball team to greatness in 1971. Against all odds, they became the first women’s Cinderella story in sports history. David Boreanaz and Ellen Burstyn co-star.

Everyone usually loves a good underdog story, but this one might push even their limits. With such a terrible theater count, you can expect no Top 5, no PTA, and a Rating in the “horrible” range (it’s currently at 4.8). If it makes even $2 million on its OW, I’ll be surprised. For $6 in Ultimate ($5 in Box Office), again, it’s a terrific Bankrupts pick. Under no circumstances pick this for anything else.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

Martha Marcy May Marlene ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This film won the Directing Award at Sundance this year and was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize. It stars Elizabeth Olsen (younger sister of Mary-Kate and Ashley) as Martha, a young woman who flees from an abusive cult in the Catskill Mountains as well as its leader, the enigmatic Patrick (Winter’s Bone’s John Hawkes), after being missing for several months. After rejoining her sister Lucy (Sarah Paulson) and her family, the transition back to normalcy proves to be difficult, as Martha is fraught with paranoia that her captors will return to take her away again.

Martha Marcy is the debut feature film for director Sean Durkin, and the accolades for his first outing have been many, judging by its current RT score (13/14 positive). It will be bowing in only four theaters this Friday, and I would easily peg it as a PTA champion if it weren’t for The Skin I Live In’s towering success this past weekend. I don’t imagine Skin’s theater count will change radically enough for its PTA to drop all that much… certainly not enough to cede its top spot to Martha Marcy. Still, for $5, it would seem to be a worthy investment.

Margin Call ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – Roadside Attractions has assembled a very impressive cast for this thriller, which is also under the direction of a rookie director, J.C. Chandor. It involves the key players at a Wall Street investment firm during one critical 24-hour period in the early stages of the 2008 financial economic meltdown. When an entry-level analyst (Zachary Quinto) comes across information that could prove disastrous for the firm, what ensues is a moral and financial quagmire as all involved scramble to avoid catastrophe… and we all know how that ended, don’t we? The amazing cast also includes Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany, Jeremy Irons, Stanley Tucci, Demi Moore, Simon Baker, Penn Badgley, Mary McDonnell and Aasif Mandvi.

Normally, I would be all over a film like this, given its terrific reviews (8/10 positive), terrific Rating (7.5 with 700 votes) and terrific cast. But there is one statistic that is impossible to ignore, that of its theater count, which is 50. That is too many to expect any PTA, and certainly not enough to spend $5 on it. I will probably catch Margin Call on DVD, but I certainly won’t be picking it for any of my slates.


My predictions for the weekend of October 21-23, 2011:

1. Paranormal Activity 3 - $31 million
2. The Three Musketeers - $14 million
3. Real Steel – $10 million
4. Footloose – $9 million
5. Johnny English Returns - $6 million
6. The Ides of March – $5 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out October – and ANOTHER round of Super Leagues – with five films that will be debuting the weekend of October 28th: Puss in Boots, DreamWorks’ Shrek spinoff starring Antonio Banderas as the swashbuckling feline; In Time, a sci-fi/thriller starring Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried; Anonymous, a period drama from director Roland Emmerich; The Rum Diary, an adventure film with Johnny Depp and Aaron Eckhart; as well as wide-release feature Like Crazy, a romantic drama starring Anton Yelchin and Jennifer Lawrence.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Pam Dawber (Mork and Mindy) (60 on 10/18)
Winona Ryder (Beetlejuice) (40 on 10/20)
Snoop Dogg (Soul Plane) (40 on 10/20)

Winona and Snoop born on the same day? Bet you never thought those two would be mentioned in the same sentence…

Later!






Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by numbersix »

I still think 3 Muskateers has a fighting chance of doing decently, if it can capitalise on the Pirates fandom. Other than that I'm pretty much in agreement

1. Paranormal Activity 3 - $30 million
2. The Three Musketeers - $17 million
3. Real Steel – $9 million
4. Footloose – $8 million
5. Johnny English Returns - $7 million

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

I actually really want to see The Three Musketeers.

Anyway...

1. Paranormal Activity 3 $31 million
2. The Three Musketeers $20 million
3. Real Steel $10 million
4. Footloose $8 million
5. Johnny English Reborn $6 million
-- The Mighty Macs $0.5 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Chienfantome »

The Three Musketeers opened last wednesday in France to very bad numbers. But it was a success in Germany. I don't know which way it'll take in Germany.
I'm not convinced THe Skin I Live in will beat Martha Marcy May Marlene next week-end in the PTA race...
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

But hasn't 3-D been flopping in France lately? The movie was a monster in Germany and Austria (it probably helped that Christoph Waltz plays the villain).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Chienfantome »

3D didn't flop much more than in other countries. The latest Final Destination movie was successful, and The Smurfs was huge, and that one is kind of comparable since it takes a classic in France like The Three Musketeers.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

Okay. I was thinking for some reason that many of them were performing like Conan The Barbarian did.

And The Smurfs did well everywhere. It's got $550 million in the bag worldwide (and still going).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Chienfantome »

I know The Smurfs did well everywhere Boosch, that's exactly my point. The Smurfs did no less than in the rest of the world with it, and The Smurfs are iconic in France. The Three Musketeers are just as iconic, and yet the film is a big failure here.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

I misunderstood you for a bit.

Let's see how the UK numbers are before we panic. From what I read, it was doing decently there.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by numbersix »

I think family film Johnny English is kicking 3 Muskateers ass in the UK, but somehow I don't see that happening in the US.

Speaking of the UK (and Ireland, as BOM lumps them both together for convenience), the Midnight in Paris screening I was at sold out very quickly. And that was during the afternoon of its second week of release!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by englishozzy »

Its a shame as after the first viewing of the trailer i was thinking The Three Muskateers was going to do so well, glad i chose Mission Impossible 4 instead of it in my full year though.

1. Paranormal Activity 3 - $27 million
2. The Three Muskateers - $14 million
3. Real Steel - $10 million
4. Footloose - $8 million
5. Johnny English Reborn - $6 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

Combined predictions from us:

1. Paranormal Activity 3 $29.7 million
2. The Three Musketeers $16.3 million
3. Real Steel $9.7 million
4. Footloose $8.3 million
5. Johnny English Reborn $6.3 million
The Mighty Macs $1 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I think people will continue to stay away from theaters until the heavy hitters of November come around, and The Three Musketeers will do as horribly as it looks.

1. Paranormal Activity - $30M
2. The Three Musketeers - $12M
3. Real Steel - $9M
4. Footloose - $8M
5. The Ides of March - $5.5M
6. Johnny English Reborn - $4.5M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Buscemi »

According to Box Office Mojo, The Three Musketeers grossed $2.4 million (American dollars) in the UK this week. The number one movie, Johnny English Reborn, did $5 million in its second week.

The international total for The Three Musketeers this week was $20.4 million. Its total number is $49 million so far.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/21/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official theater counts:

Paranormal Activity 3 - 3,321
The Three Musketeers - 3,017
Johnny English Reborn - 1,551
The Mighty Macs - 975
Margin Call - 50
Martha Marcy May Marlene - 4


Estimates for next week:

Puss in Boots - 3,800+
In Time - 3,000+
The Rum Diary - 2,100+
Anonymous - 200 (this is probably a mistake, and it's really 2,000... it's happened before)
Like Crazy - 4
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