SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/14/11

[Shrykespeare]

I got back from seeing Real Steel just in time to see that it had won the weekend box office race by a very comfortable margin, posting over $27 million in earnings (way ahead of newcomer The Ides of March, which slipped in at #2 with only $10 million), which is the most successful weekend any film has had (not counting the Lion King re-release) since August 12-14. How well Hugh Jackman and the boxing robots holds, however, remains to be seen.

Three new films are set to debut this Friday, and two of them are attempts to reinvigorate storylines of movies that appeared in theaters more than a quarter-century ago. The most promising of the two is Footloose, a straight-up remake of the 1984 film that made Kevin Bacon a household name. That film was a sensation at the time, pulling in an incredible $80 million (which would be about $190 million today, adjusted for inflation), featured a soundtrack that spawned six Top 40 hits (including two #1s), and even inspired a stage play of the same name.

The film centered on a big-city youth named Ren McCormick (Bacon) who moves with his mother to a small midwestern town, only to find that the town, which is basically run by a parochial fire-and-brimstone preacher (John Lithgow) has outlawed rock-and-roll music and the dancing that goes along with it, because of a tragedy that claimed the lives of several teenagers following a party. But with the help and support of his new friends (which included Lori Singer, Sarah Jessica Parker and the late Christopher Penn), Ren was able to buck the system and convince the town’s elders to allow youths to be youths again.

The 2011 version, which is directed by Craig Brewer (Hustle & Flow) seems to be a straight-up remake, with relatively unknown dancer/actor Kenny Wormald stepping into Bacon’s dancing shoes, Dancing With the Stars alum Julianne Hough in Singer’s role as Ren’s girlfriend, and Dennis Quaid as the preacher who wishes to quell all rebellious thoughts in his town. Andie MacDowell and Miles Teller also co-star.

Remaking 80s movies seems to be the thing nowadays: in the last few months, we have seen straight-up remakes of Fright Night, Conan the Barbarian and Arthur, none of which met with any success. I’m not sure why a remake of Footloose was necessary beyond its nostalgic value, and I’ll tell you why… in 1984, MTV was in its early years, as were CDs. It took some doing to buy into a small-town mentality that could actually outlaw rock music and dancing, but the original Footloose somehow managed it. The 2011 remake, which, I’m assuming, takes place in the present day, an era that includes iPods, iPads, iTunes, Blackberries and unlimited downloads, the idea that a city government could effectively ban rock music... well, it stretches that concept beyond the level of credibility. But I digress…

Anyone who wants to see this Footloose will do so either because they loved the original or because it’s been a while since a good dance movie has come out. The remake of Fame tanked, but I expect a little better from Footloose, which will be bowing in 3,300 theaters this weekend. It will run you $12 in both October leagues, and for that, I expect a $17 OW ($46 million overall), eight Top 5 points and three or four PTA. Despite the decent reviews so far (15/18 positive), the early Rating is not good at all (5.0 with over 400 votes). If I took this film, it would only be in Box Office.

In 1982, director John Carpenter, who has helmed some truly memorable films in the past thirty years (including the original Halloween, Christine and Escape From New York), made a low-budget horror film known as The Thing, which in turn was a remake of sorts of the classic 1951 Howard Hawkes monster movie The Thing from Another World.

The original starred Kurt Russell as one member of a crew of men residing in a remote scientific station in Antarctica. One day, a husky runs into the camp, with a frantic gun-toting Norwegian in hot pursuit, determined to kill the dog and anyone that got in his way, a plan that ultimately fails. It turns out the dog is not a dog at all, but a vicious alien capable of mimicking any life-form that it encounters. Tensions are ratcheted up as the crew, unable to discern who is still human and who isn’t, must find a way to flush the creature out.

That Thing (you do!) did not do well in theaters, failing to even earn $20 million (about $53 million AFI). It did pick up somewhat of a cult following in the forthcoming decades on VHS, DVD and on cable, and if any of you reading this has not seen it, you should. The creature effects are truly remarkable (like, Alien-good), especially when you consider that it was done in an era long before the advent of CGI monsters. It is, to this day, the scariest, tensest movie I have ever seen, and it ranks among my all-time favorites.

This new Thing is not a remake, but a prequel, outlining the events taking place over the three-day period at the Norwegian’s camp that led up to the 1982 film. Carpenter apparently gave his blessing for this (and even wanted a cameo in it, but scheduling conflicts ultimately prevented it), and Dutch director Matthijs van Heijningen Jr. finally got the green-light from Universal to proceed. This version does include some American actors as well, including Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Scott Pilgrim vs. the World), Joel Edgerton (Warrior) and Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje (Lost). I’m going to hope that the film remains true to the original… which would mean a happy ending is definitely not in store.

October is usually the month for horror films, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year, as there are only two noteworthy titles in that genre on the slate this month. Despite the dearth of horror movies, I have reservations about recommending The Thing for your slates, even at $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office). A prequel to an obscure 30-year-old film is likely to get pummeled at the box office by next week’s Paranormal Activity 3, the next chapter in a much more recent, popular and well-known franchise. I will predict a $10 OW, on its way to three or four Top 5 points, maybe one PTA, a so-so Rating and $25 million. I would stay away from this one.

Third up this week is The Big Year, a comedy from Fox. Six months ago, I would have predicted big things for this movie, as it teams up three well-known comedic veterans Jack Black, Owen Wilson and Steve Martin, but that has been far from the case. The film, which is based on the bestselling book of the same name by Mark Obmascik, has gotten close to zero fanfare and promotion. A poster and trailer for this film only came out a few short weeks ago, and its advertising platform has been nearly non-existent. It will open in around 2,200 theaters, where it will play to what I’m guessing will be a lot of empty seats.

Considering the cast as well as the director (David Frankel, who helmed the big hits The Devil Wears Prada and Marley and Me), you’d think Fox would have aimed higher. But when you consider that the film, basically, is about grown men who are bird-enthusiasts, perhaps it’s not so surprising after all, even though the trailer doesn’t really accent this point, instead painting it as three old friends who embark on a journey together to… I don’t know, have one last adventure, combat a midlife crisis, whatever. For that’s basically what the film is. Veteran actors John Cleese, Kevin Pollak and Rosamund Pike also co-star.

If we on the pricing panel had to do it over again, there is no way that we would price The Big Year at $13 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office). I would honestly be surprised if it cracked the Top 5 at all. I predict a $5 million opening – on a par with equally-poorly-advertised films Straw Dogs and I Don’t Know How She Does It – on its way to $13 million total, a middling Rating and zero points everywhere else. I would recommend this film only if you are playing Bankrupts, where it seems to be the perfect film: quite pricy and totally without potential.

Note: Two changes were made to this week’s lineup in the past week: firstly, Texas Killing Fields was pushed back one week, and will be opening this Friday in three locations. Secondly, The Understudy was pulled from its slot and is now scheduled to be released on an as-yet-unspecified date in December.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

The Skin I Live In ($6 Ult, $3 BO) – Sometimes, in the Ultimate game, you’ve got to think small, especially in the PTA category. It’s often the hardest category to predict. The odds are better when you pick a film opening in limited release from a noteworthy director (like Take Shelter’s Jeff Nichols), though that’s not ALWAYS the case (like Restless’s Gus Van Sant). However, when you have a film that is helmed by Spanish director Pedro Almodovar, who has won not one but TWO Academy Awards, your interest is definitely peaked.

The Skin I Live In – which will be shown in Spanish with English subtitles in several locations in New York and Los Angeles – stars Antonio Banderas (also from Spain, and coming up in Puss in Boots) as Robert Ledgard, a prominent plastic surgeon who, following the tragic death of his wife in a car accident, vows to create a type of synthetic skin that is impervious to damage or burning. Of course, testing out his creation requires circumvention of almost all medical ethics, as well as a guinea pig. He chooses a woman named Vera (Elena Anaya), a “mysterious and volatile woman who holds the key to his obsession”. The trailer truly is bizarre.

The current RT score for The Skin I Live In is phenomenal (30/34 positive on RT), as is its current User Rating (7.7 with over 3,000 votes). As I said, it’s theater count is just the right number. It will run you $6 in Ultimate leagues, which is pretty expensive for a limited-release film, but I think it will more than pay dividends in the PTA category. I expect it to easily win this week, and hold on for additional point next week (and possibly the week after that). I know December is when Oscar season culminates, but Oscar-bait movies coming out in that month have a lot more competition than The Skin I Live In does. Snap it up.

Texas Killing Fields ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – I talked about this film last week, and what I said then pretty much still goes, except for one factor: now it’s going against The Skin I Live In, which is almost sure to win the PTA this weekend. TKF will therefore have to battle for the #2 spot with Footloose and the third week of Take Shelter. Given that its current Rating is still below 6.0, I would be loath to choose it at this time.


My predictions for the weekend of October 14-16, 2011:

1. Footloose – $17 million
2. Real Steel – $14 million
3. The Thing - $10 million
4. The Ides of March – $6 million
5. Dolphin Tale – $6 million
6. The Big Year - $5 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we start getting into the good part of the beginning of winter, with six new films scheduled for release on October 21st: Paranormal Activity 3, the third chapter in the recent, successful horror franchise; The Three Musketeers, a re-imagining of the classic Alexandre Dumas story courtesy of Paul W.S. Anderson; Johnny English Reborn, a sequel to the 2003 spy farce starring Rowan Atkinson; The Mighty Macs, a two-year-old women’s sports drama starring Carla Gugino; as well as limited-release features Margin Call and Martha Marcy May Marlene.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Peter Coyote (E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial) (70 on 10/10)
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat, up next summer in The Dictator) (40 on 10/13)
Paul Simon (singer) (70 on 10/13)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'd go with Real Steel again. All three of this week's movies look like non-starters.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I want to say Footloose is totally dead in the water, but it HAS been getting great reviews and it's advertised like crazy. I see a commercial for it at least twice a day.

But I'd be shocked if either The Thing or The Big Year made more than $8M this weekend.

Sigh. After In Time, I don't see anything I really want to pay for (in wide release, at least) until The Sitter, maybe Mission Impossible 4. October is filled with awful looking movies, and November is all kiddie flicks plus Twilight.

[numbersix]

Yep, another dud week. Footloose has been tracking well but not sure if that will mean big business, or just better than the others. Sounds like a stinker. The Thing looks like they made a pointless prequel (you don't need to know this story) with more cheap shocks. But it's nearly Halloween so there'll be some interest. And The Big Year could have been a strong mid-level hit but it seems tracking and marketing is awful.

Texas Killing Fields may be worth a punt if you only have $3 left. It's opening in 3 theatres and has a great cast. At best it could get 4 PTA points, which isn't bad.

1. Footloose – $14 million
2. Real Steel – $13 million
3. The Thing - $11 million
4. The Big Year - $8 million
5. Dolphin Tale – $6 million

[transformers2]

I think Footloose might be successful, but that's about it. The Thing and (especially) The Big Year will tank. Real Steel will more than likey win the weekend.

My predictions
1.Real Stell $15 Mil
2.Footloose $13 Mil
3.The Thing 8 Mil
4.The Ides Of March 7.5 Mil
5.Dolphin Tale 7 Mil

[Shrykespeare]

Do you guys agree that The Skin I Live In could get PTA in multiple weeks? Just curious.

[silversurfer19]

Depending on the platform release, I'd expect at least 8 PTA's from it's first two weekends, and possibly reaching 10 in total.

[Chienfantome]

It will definitely get PTA on several weeks.

[Brockster]

I'm struggling with the price tag...especially considering films like Melancholia and My Week with Marilyn only run $5

Surfer and Chien, you are the resident experts on the PTA front...how well do you think Skin stacks up against some of the PTA contenders in later in the season?

[Chienfantome]

I'd trust The Skin I live in over Melancholia or My Week with Marilyn personnally. Easily. After that, depending on the season you're playing, I would keep an alert eye on The Artist and The Descendant, which are gonna be PTA kings...

[Brockster]

Thank you for your wisdom, which far exceeds your years.

[Chienfantome]

Don't mistake me for an oracle though, these are just my personal instincts
(yeah I know, I prepare my defence in case I'm wrong in a few weeks)

[numbersix]

I wouldn't write off My Week with Marilyn. Williams could easily get the Oscar for it, and that sort of buzz is enough to make the film a PTA champ for weeks.

[silversurfer19]

I think The Skin I Live In has an advantage over the others primarily because it has very little in terms of high calibre opponents for quite a few weeks. The current releases like Take Shelter are fading, and only Martha Marcy can provide any kind of competition until Puss In Boots is released. So it should bring in double figures. However, like six mentioned, I fully expect good numbers from both Marilyn and Melancholia too, though I think both are kind of only limited to bringing in PTA due to not only the fact they have to face each other in consequent weekends, along with the likes of The Descendants, The Artist, Shame and Kevin, but also they have competition from the BO giants like Twilight, Happy Feet, Muppets and Tower Heist. So while they may hit some decent numbers, I think a lot of them will cancel each other out.

[numbersix]

Good logic, SS, though there's one or two movies you think will be cancelled out that I feel will destroy even the successful wide releases, and be major PTA champs like 27 Hours was. I also don't have a lot of faith in Melancholia for PTa points. Might do well in its opening weekend, but mixed reviews will hurt it.