SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/7/11

[Shrykespeare]

Well, thank God THAT month is over. September, never a source for truly great stat-producing films, proved to be a wasteland in 2011. Of the eighteen wide-release movies that came out in September, only two grossed more than $50 million – and one of them (The Lion King 3D re-release) wasn’t even part of the game! (Oh, I’m sure Moneyball and Dolphin Tale will both get to $50 million, but whether either of them, along with Contagion, reaches $75 million is another matter.) Suffice it to say, I am so glad that September is over.

That being said, I’m not sure just how many films in October have a chance to reach that mark either… I’m guessing three, tops. One will make it for sure, that being Puss in Boots, which was just bumped up one week from the first weekend in November to October 28th. Paranormal Activity 3 has a chance if it can recapture most of its audience from the first two installments. The third one is coming out this week, and it is Hugh Jackman’s latest vehicle, Real Steel.

It’s interesting to note that Jackman has only had significant roles in seven movies in the last ten years (wide-release) that wasn’t either animated or required him to wear prosthetic claws. Back then, he was considered an A-list actor, which is how he landed leads in films like Swordfish, Van Helsing and The Prestige. He’s milked the Wolverine character as much as he can, and though Australia did well critically, it’s been awhile since he’s had a mainstream hit outside the X-Men franchise. Real Steel could be it, and teaming up with Shawn Levy could prove fruitful. Levy has had three decent outings in a row, having helmed both Night at the Museum films as well as last spring’s Date Night.

Real Steel takes place in the “near future”, when traditional boxing has been… upgraded, shall we say. Rather than having buff, husky men lace up gloves and beat each other senseless, now robot boxing has taken over. Former contender Charlie Kenton (Jackman), now a man without a sport and struggling financially, has had to sustain himself as a small-time promoter, piecing together robot fighters from whatever scrap metal he can find. Sensing one last chance for glory, he teams up with his son Max (Dakota Goyo) to build and train a championship contender; a robot named Adam. Evangeline Lilly and Anthony Mackie co-star.

So yeah, it’s “Rock-Em, Sock-Em Robots” meets Rocky, like someone on the boards said. Will it be as predictable every other sports underdog story we see? Very likely. Is it still worth seeing? I think so. There hasn’t been a film in theaters that has looked this “high-tech” since Cowboys vs. Aliens, and I’m betting action and sci-fi junkies will eat this up. Until the intrusion of Puss in Boots, I would have easily pegged Real Steel as the highest-grossing earner of October. It’s gotten decent reviews so far (8/12 positive on RT) and has a very passable Rating (7.2 with over 1,000 votes), and, with a release platform of over 3,300 theaters, it should easily take #1 at the box office this weekend.

Thing is, it’s also pretty darned expensive. Real Steel will run you $24 in the October Ultimate leagues ($25 in Box Office). Will it give you enough stats to justify that price tag? I’m just not sure. I will predict a $23 million OW, along with eight or nine Top 5 points, two or three PTA and $75 million overall. That’s a tough sell in the October leagues… I think you’re better off waiting for the holiday season.

If you know history (or even Shakespeare), you’ll know that The Ides of March refers to that fateful day in 44 B.C. when Julius Caesar was brutally stabbed to death by his friend and confidant Brutus along with a group of conspirators. Now, I’m not sure that the movie bearing the same title will be that graphic, but the parallels between the storylines are eerily similar, that of betrayal.

Based on the play by Beau Willimon, The Ides of March centers on idealistic press secretary Stephen Meyers (Ryan Gosling), the mastermind behind the presidential campaign for Mike Morris (George Clooney, who also directed), the current governor of Pennsylvania. Extremely confident in his employer’s chances, Stephen is approached during the frantic last few days before a heavily contested primary in Ohio by Tom Duffy (Paul Giamatti), a rival campaign manager, who suggests that Morris may not be the shining white knight that Stephen thinks he is, and that his loyalties are better served elsewhere. The dirty side of politics and scandal take over, and then, well… Julius Caesar. The amazing supporting cast also includes Philip Seymour Hoffman, Marisa Tomei, Jeffrey Wright and Evan Rachel Wood.

The Ides of March was the opening film shown at the Venice Intl. Film Festival earlier this year, and it was also showcased at the Toronto Film Festival as well. It will be bowing in approximately 2,000 theaters this Friday, a number that gives me pause. It’s rated R, which is no surprise, and, thankfully, it’s not overly long, clocking in at just over 100 minutes. The thing with Clooney is, though he is a very popular and well-respected actor, most of his projects (both as actor or director) tend to be rather staid, and lack appeal to all but mature audiences.

2,000 theaters is too few to really make the film recommendable for Box Office purposes, and too many to be an effective source for PTA, unless I’m sorely misjudging the anticipation for this movie. I plan on seeing it, but how many others will too? In all, I predict no more than five Top 5 points, maybe two PTA, a Rating in the mid-6’s, and a $12 million opening on its way to $29 million. For $10 (in both leagues), I would search elsewhere. If you are really determined to have a Clooney pick on your slates, go for The Descendants, which is opening next month.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release features:

Dirty Girl ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This 2010 teen drama from the Weinsteins stars Juno Temple (who is also in the upcoming film The Three Musketeers) as Danielle, the “class slut” of her high school in Norman, Oklahoma of 1987. Her mother Sue Ann (Milla Jovovich, who is also ALSO in The Three Musketeers) is about to marry a Mormon (William H. Macy), and she has been paired in her school’s “life class” with Clarke (Jeremy Dozier), who is chubby, unpopular… and gay. Though polar opposites, they bond enough to steal Clarke’s homophobic dad’s car and head for Fresno, California, where Danielle hopes to find her birth father. Mary Steenburgen and country stars Dwight Yoakam and Tim McGraw co-star.

Scheduled to debut in nine locations this Friday, I’m not sure what to make of Dirty Girl. It doesn’t exactly scream “indie darling” to me, though it does have infinitely more appeal than From Prada to Nada. Juno Temple’s not a household name (yet), and its current User Rating (6.6 with 210 users) is enough for me not to recommend it.

Texas Killing Fields ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This crime thriller – based on true events – was also featured at the Venice Film Festival this year. It is loosely based on the string of murders of young women who were picked up along the I-45 highway and whose bodies were all dumped in a disused oil field in southeast Texas. It was originally supposed to be directed by Danny Boyle, but when he passed on it, the reins were given to Ami Canaan Mann, the daughter of notable director Michael Mann (who is this film’s producer). The film features two young stars of The Debt, Jessica Chastain and Sam Worthington, along with Jeffrey Dean Morgan (Watchmen) and Chloe Moretz (Kick-Ass).

This being the opening weekend of the October leagues, all five films this week are sure to get at least one PTA point, and Texas Killing Fields has an excellent chance of getting the top spot in that regard. It’s current Rating (6.1, but with only 73 votes) is nothing special, but if you can get good PTA points to counterbalance it, it’s worth it.

The Way ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This film was directed by, written by and stars former Brat Packer and Young Gun Emilio Estevez, who acts alongside his real-life father, Martin Sheen. Martin plays Tom, a doctor who journeys to France following the tragic death of his only son (Estevez), who was killed in the Pyrenees during a storm, while walking the “Camino de Santiago”, a Christian pilgrimage that terminates in Galicia, Spain. In a combination of both grief and homage, Tom decides to walk the same trail, hooking up with three other individuals (one played by Deborah Kara Unger) whose lives are equally broken and who are all also searching for meaning.

The Way will be bowing in 30 theaters starting this Friday, a number that tells me that it will exit this coming weekend with no more than two PTA points, tops. It has a good Rating (7.2 with nearly 1,300 votes) and has been fantastically reviewed (20/23 positive on RT), but it is what it is, which is not a good pick.


My predictions for the weekend of October 7-9, 2011:

1. Real Steel – $23 million
2. The Ides of March – $12 million
3. Dolphin Tale – $11 million
4. Moneyball – $8 million
5. The Lion King 3D – $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five new films take center stage, those being: Footloose, a 2011 remake of the 1984 Kevin Bacon dance film; The Thing, a prequel of sorts to the 1982 John Carpenter horror film; The Big Year, a comedy starring Jack Black, Owen Wilson and Steve Martin; as well as two limited-release films, The Skin I Live In (Pedro Almodovar’s latest), and The Understudy.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Karen Allen (Raiders of the Lost Ark, Scrooged) (60 on 10/5)
Sir Bob Geldof (musician/composer/humanitarian) (60 on 10/5)
Kevin Cronin (REO Speedwagon lead singer) (60 on 10/6)
John Mellencamp (R&R Hall of Fame singer) (60 on 10/7)
Rev. Jesse Jackson (Rainbow Coalition founder) (70 on 10/8)
Robert Wuhl (Batman, Bull Durham, Arli$$) (60 on10/9)

Later!

[numbersix]

Argh, The Way is opening in 30 theatres? Damn, thought it could surprise this weekend. That means Texas Killing Fields should beat the other 2 limited films, and earn nearly 4 points this weekend. Dirty Girl will bomb

As for the wide releases, Real Steel is the first major "4 quadrant" attempt in weeks, so it should so well, maybe better than you mention. Anyone who likes Rocky and Transformers should dig this, right?

Think you're underestimating The Ides of March. This could be a surprise Oscar film and with solid reviews I think it could perform a little like Michael Clayton, especially with next week looking like a real stinker.

1. Real Steel – $28 million
2. The Ides of March – $13 million
3. Dolphin Tale – $9 million
4. Moneyball – $8 million
5. The Lion King 3D – $7 million (if it remains open, wasn't it supposed o drop from cinemas? If so add Courageous)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

To me, October looks worse than September. There's nothing I would drop $10 a ticket on at all. I know Real Steel is supposed to be a heavy hitter, but I just don't know about it.

[Geezer]

Yeah, October looks AWFUL.

[undeadmonkey]

I actually want to see quite a few movies coming out in October, but i'm not going to say which ones as i'll be laughed at

Real Steel should open well, it's getting good reviews. I say around $30M. Ides of March should do well too, i say $15M. The Lion King will drop way harder than that, It's coming out on Bluray tuesday. I just recently saw a trailer for Dirty Girl, BLECH!!! wouldn't touch it with a pole.

[Buscemi]

Real Steel should get to at least $30 million. Disney has been promoting this for months (it had TV spots out ten months before opening) and it will bring in the crowds that ate up Transformers. Also, the word-of-mouth screenings that have been done on it have turned out excellent.

The Ides of March will be a slow starter (there isn't much of a market for a film on political smear campaigns, especially since you can't escape them on TV) but it should manage decent legs. I'll go with a $10 million opening.

Lastly, Dirty Girl is being released in a heavily altered version from its showing at Toronto last year. A number of scenes were reshot and twenty minutes were cut from the final version. I expect most reviews to be very mixed due to the cuts (that and Juno Temple's awful Southern accent). And from the trailer I saw, it looks like the worst-shot film of 2011. All of the colors are washed-out, film grain is everywhere and it is way too brightly lit. You think that some of the money that was spent on getting the film could have used to clean it up some.

My predictions:

1. Real Steel $35 million
2. Dolphin Tale $11 million
3. The Ides of March $10 million
4. Moneyball $7.5 million
5. Courageous $6.5 million

[transformers2]

There is honestly not a single film I want to see this month. In terms of box office, I think Real Steel is one of the two films (Puss in Boots being the other) that will do well this month. The concept is quite accessible and the trailers have been everywhere. The Ides Of March should do alright, but I wouldn't bet on it.

My predictions:
1.Real Steel $33 Mil
2.Dolphin Tale $11 Mil
3.The Ides Of March $9 Mil
4.Moneyball $8 Mil
5.Courageous $6 Mil

[silversurfer19]

Not talking about BO aspirations, but there is plenty I'd love to see this month. The Skin I Live In, The Rum Diary, In Time and Puss In Boots all look good, I've seen Martha Marcy and it was excellent, while The Thing and Ides Of March are movies I will probably end up watching. In terms of the game though, bar Puss In Boots it's pretty much a dud.

[Brockster]

MTC has Real at 23, Ides at 14

[Shrykespeare]

Interesting. BOM reports that this past September was the highest-grossing September of all time. Sure didn't seem that way!

With The Lion King 3D leading the way, $602.9 million was grossed in theaters, at nearly 75 million tickets sold.

Top movies:

The Lion King, $71.9 million
Contagion, $61.1 million
The Help, $54.6 million
Moneyball, $29.8 million
The Debt, $28.6 million
Dolphin Tale, $26.8 million
Drive, $24.7 million

[Chienfantome]

I would have never guessed indeed !

[silversurfer19]

Remember in terms of the game, ie. what we take notice of, only Contagion made over $50m in September, so comparatively it was a bad month, though probably not much worse than any other September.

[Buscemi]

This week's theatre counts:

Real Steel - 3,440
The Ides of March - 2,199
The Way - 30
Dirty Girl - 9

Not in the game but notable:
1911 - 33
The Human Centipede 2 - 18 (playing midnights only)
Blackthorn - 8

Texas Killing Fields has been pushed back to October 14th (where it will open in 11 theatres).

Rotten Tomatoes ratings:

The Ides of March - 76%
Real Steel - 61%
The Way - 78%
Dirty Girl - 23% (was as low as 9% earlier today)

[Shrykespeare]

Texas Killing Fields has been pushed back to October 14th (where it will open in 11 theatres).

Well, this will have two effects: first, it means that every film this weekend is guaranteed at least two PTA points in the October leagues, and it means that TKF, which had a chance at 1st place in PTA on its opening week, will probably get killed next week by The Skin I Live In.

[Buscemi]

The 30 theatres on The Way look to be spread out among several cities. I'm going to be in St. Louis on Sunday and Monday and I found a theatre there showing it (it's exclusively running at AMC Theatres). I'll probably see it and Machine Gun Preacher there.