SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by W »

Tucker and Dale vs. Evil looks hilarious.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Buscemi »

As I've said earlier, watch out for Courageous. There are already a bunch of sold out shows here (some shows are even being interlocked into multiple auditoriums).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

The Weekend Warrior said that Courageous already has $2M in ticket sales already.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Buscemi »

The first nine reviews for Dream House are all negative, with some critics claiming that you've seen the whole movie just from watching the trailer.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Buscemi »

From Deadline:

1. Moneyball (Sony) Week 2 [2,993 Theaters]
Friday $3.8M (-43%), Estimated Weekend $12M, Estimated Cume $38M

2. Dolphin Tale (Alcon, Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,515 Theaters]
Friday $3.4M (-33%), Estimated Weekend $13M, Estimated Cume $37M

3. Courageous (Sony) NEW [1,161 Theaters]
Friday $3.4M, Estimated Weekend $9M

4. 50/50 (Summit) NEW [2,458 Theaters]
Friday $3.3M, Estimated Weekend $9.5M

5. Lion King 3D (Disney) Week 3 [2,340 Theaters]
Friday $3.2M, Estimated Weekend $12M, Estimated Cume $80.6M

6. Dream House (Universal) NEW [2,661 Theaters]
Friday $2.7M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M

7. What’s Your Number? (Fox) NEW [3,002 Theaters]
Friday $2M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M

8. Abduction (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,118 Theaters]
Friday $1.7M (-54%), Estimated Weekend $5.3M, Estimated Cume $18.8M

9. Contagion (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,744 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend $4.7M, Estimated Cume $64.4M

10. Killer Elite (Open Road) Week 2 [2,986 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M (-56%), Estimated Weekend $4.4M, Estimated Cume $17M
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by numbersix »

Dream House is doing worse than I expected, but glad I called the dud that is What's Your Number (eh, Banks? ;) ). Corageous is doing as well as expected and should go on to make 30mil plus. And Moneyball and Dolphin's Tale will both earn 3 and 4 T5 points. Glad I relied on them heavily and on nothing from this weekend.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Buscemi »

It's not good when the trailers give away everything and the director disowns the final film.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Early weekend projections (BoxOffice):

Dolphin Tale, $14.7M
Moneyball, $12.3M
Lion King, $12.2M
Courageous, $9.3M
50/50, $8.5M
Dream House, $8M
What's Your Number, $5.8M
Abduction, $5.4M
Contagion, $4.8M
Killer Elite, $4.7M
Drive, $3.1M
The Help, $3.0

Wow. Courageous beats out all the other new movies, and in less than half the theaters? That's amazing.

I am so glad I stayed away from every wide-release movie in the past three weeks except for Moneyball. With 12 movies in three weeks, stuff like this is bound to happen... there just aren't enough Top 5 points to go around.

Will post BOMs Friday numbers when they come in.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by numbersix »

So you're glad you missed out on Dolphin Tale, Shryke? ;)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Actually, I am. The User Rating is terrible.

Didn't expect THAT answer, did'ya, smartypants?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by numbersix »

Nope. Didn't even check it!

Still, 5.7 isn't awful. It's just below average

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Moneyball, $3.85M
Dolphin Tale, $3.465M
Lion King, $3.305M
Courageous, $3.1M
50/50, $2.867M
Dream House, $2.661M
What's Your Number, $2.05M
Abduction, $1.7M
Killer Elite, $1.525M
Contagion, $1.465M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Don't worry Six, What's Your Number will easily pass Dream House when the weekend is up.

I think it'll have good WOM among chicks, while Dream House will have terrible WOM among everyone.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by numbersix »

What makes you think What's Your Number will have good WoM with women?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/30/11

Post by Buscemi »

Banks is probably under the belief that women will eat up any chick flick. I Don't Know How She Does It was proof that theory isn't true.
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