SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/23/11

[Buscemi]

They've been showing ads for What's Your Number? on Conan. Dream House is basically being dumped by Universal while Courageous is being promoted exclusively to church groups. Seeing how well Fireproof did, this should work well with the latter.

Also being promoted to church groups (besides Courageous and Dolphin Tale, for obvious reasons) is Machine Gun Preacher. Besides having terrible reviews, the R rating is a major obstacle for this film to appeal to that audience. When I analyzed the film a while back, I mentioned that would probably be too violent for the Christmas audience and too preachy for the action crowd. And with the reviews, it won't appeal to highbrow audiences either.

[Buscemi]

Early estimates from Deadline:

Moneyball $8 million Friday, mid-$20 million weekend
Dolphin Tale $6 million Friday, $24 million weekend
Killer Elite $5 million Friday, low teens weekend
Abduction $4.5 million Friday, mid-teens weekend
The Lion King mid-teens weekend

[Shrykespeare]

Wow. High numbers across the board. That's more like it!

[Chienfantome]

Interesting numbers indeed...

[numbersix]

Boosch called it on Dolphin's Tale, so kudos to him for that. In fact, he convinced me to stick it onto a few slates. If these numbers stick it'll be a better pick than Moneyball, which is a real pain. Fortunately next week's releases look weak so Moneyball and Dolphin's Tale both have a chance of claiming more T5 points.

Deadline's update now has Lion King at 20mil, and Moneyball at the same.

[undeadmonkey]

those were very early predictions and pretty off too. I'm so glad i dropped abduction off of every slate. got dolphins tale on some. Also, why wasn't the lion king in the game? that would have been a fantastic pick and i would have definitely picked it just for nostalgia reasons

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Moneyball, $6.75M
Lion King, $6.05M
Dolphin Tale, $5.11M
Abduction, $3.8M
Killer Elite, $3.5M
Congation, $2.6M
Drive, $1.9M
The Help, $1.3M
Straw Dogs, $685K
I Don't Know How She Does It, $677K

And Machine Gun Preacher made $10K in 4 locations, so a few PTA seem to be assured.

[Buscemi]

Dolphin Tale is only the third movie this year to get an A+ on Cinemascore. The other two? Soul Surfer and The Help.

This could mean very minimal drops in the coming weeks.

[Geezer]

those were very early predictions and pretty off too. I'm so glad i dropped abduction off of every slate. got dolphins tale on some. Also, why wasn't the lion king in the game? that would have been a fantastic pick and i would have definitely picked it just for nostalgia reasons

Lion King not being in the game but affecting the standings is really starting to get under my skin. Having both Drive and Moneyball all over my slates, and it fucking with my top 5 points is not cool. I never expected the Lion King's points to actually count when no one could take it. Its a ridiculous rule and should be changed if at all possible.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates:

Top 10:
The Lion King 3D, $22.1M
4 points - Moneyball, $20.6M
3 points - Dolphin Tale, $20.3M
2 points - Abduction, $11.2M
1 point - Killer Elite, $9.5M
Contagion, $8.6M
Drive, $5.8M
The Help, $4.4M
Straw Dogs, $2.1M
I Don't Know How She Does It, $2.1M

PTA:
5 points - Machine Gun Preacher
4 points - Moneyball
3 points - Dolphin Tale
2 points - Abduction
1 point - Killer Elite


User Ratings:
Moneyball - 8.0
Dolphin Tale - 5.6
Abduction - 3.9
Killer Elite - 7.2
Machine Gun Preacher - 5.5
Thunder Soul - 6.4

[undeadmonkey]

those are some crazy different numbers from before and the Lion King wins again, taking 2 whole Top5 points from me. sigh, it should have been in the game. I think i remember Toy Story being in the game last year.

on another note. I think though that Dolphin Tale will take 2nd place. although my sampling could just be off. I just got back from a Moneyball screening, and the place was empty. about 30 people in a 200 auditorium, also saw three people leave. crazy people....

[Geezer]

My showing was pretty packed and I know some people that tried to go opening night and the show was sold out before they got there.

[Shrykespeare]

The Toy Story re-release was NOT in the game.

Because of this development, I may have to include re-releases from now on. Titanic is coming up next, I think.

[Buscemi]

Star Wars Episode 1 is next.

[undeadmonkey]

isn't Ghostbusters coming out next month?


ooh, well maybe toy story was played in the full year league, because i remember having it somewhere