SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/23/11

[Shrykespeare]

So the #1 film this weekend, by a 2-1 margin, was the 3D re-release of a 17-year-old animated movie, The Lion King 3D. I mean, it’s September, but wow. Do people miss classic Disney musicals that much, or is September this year just that bad? (Probably a little of both…) Contagion slipped only 35% to finish at #2 in its second week, just ahead of the highly-praised Drive, which may have similarly good legs in upcoming weeks. Kudos also must go to the French comedy My Afternoons With Margueritte, which took the PTA crown this weekend.

It kind of sucks that the most critical part of the Super Leagues takes place during a time when most movies staunchly refuse to break out, where only about one in every five films is worth its price tag. But hey, winning a year-long or five-month league isn’t supposed to be easy, is it? So, as we plow on towards crowning the eventual victors, we have six more movies to talk about, four wide and two limited, that will all be coming out on September 23rd.

This is a going to be a very bunch-up weekend, I can feel it. With four new films and three current films dropping slowly, we could potentially have seven films finishing within $10 million of each other. If any of the new releases have the potential to top The Lion King 3D’s second week, it’s probably Moneyball, a baseball drama and true underdog story placed strategically (and, perhaps, brilliantly) to coincide with the end of the current baseball season, a time when America’s national pastime becomes the #1 focus of the sports world. The story, which is based on the 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis, details how the Oakland Athletics, using a system known as sabermetrics, was able to field a high-quality team on a limited budget, a team that was able to make a serious playoff run, against all odds, with general manager Billy Beane at the head, determined to fly in the face of a system that has set up small-market teams to fail for decades.

Playing the cynical Beane is Brad Pitt, and he is joined by comedic actor Jonah Hill, playing the role of Peter Brand, the young up-and-comer who convinces Beane that using computer analysis to field a winning team is the best way to go. Baseball fans will recognize the names on the back of the uniforms of the ragtag team that is assembled, including David Justice, Scott Hatteberg and Ron Washington. Robin Wright and Philip Seymour Hoffman also co-star. It’s been a while since we’ve had a truly worthy sports film (The Blind Side) and even longer since we’ve had one involving baseball (the last decade produced Mr. 3000, the Bad News Bears remake and The Rookie, and that’s about it). I have to believe that director Bennett Miller, who received an Oscar nom for Capote in 2005 but hasn’t had any hasn’t done anything since, took the time to produce something worthy.

The early skinny for Moneyball has been very good, receiving 17/20 positive reviews at RT and having an early Rating of 7.9 (albeit with only 400 votes). Still, I think the baseball/underdog theme and Brad and Jonah’s involvement will be just enough to put it ahead of Disney’s latest surprise hit, especially when you factor in its 3,000-theater platform. I predict a $17 million opening, on its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating around 7.5 and $55 million. For $11 in Ultimate Leagues ($12 in Box Office), that ain’t too bad.

Just like Bennett, it’s been a similar gap between projects for director John Singleton, the man behind the camera for many acclaimed, gritty street drama such as Boyz n the Hood, Rosewood and Four Brothers. Of course, he also helmed Shaft and 2 Fast 2 Furious, which tells me he’s not above doing the occasional lowbrow action flick, and, after a six-year hiatus, he’s back with Abduction, the first leading role for Twilight hunk Taylor Lautner since playing Sharkboy for Robert Rodriguez.

Lautner plays Nathan Price, a Pittsburgh native who occasions to stumble upon a computer-generated image of himself on a missions person website, cementing his lifelong fears that the life he’s lead was not the one he was meant to lead, and the people he’s called his family are, in fact, impostors. As it turns out, secrets and mysteries abound around Nathan’s life, and as those layers are peeled away, he finds himself targeted by a team of trained agents led by Frank Burton (Alfred Molina) as well as an international assassin (played by the Swedish Dragon Tattoo series’ star Michael Nyqvist, appearing his first-ever major American film). The film also stars Lily Collins (The Blind Side), Jason Isaacs, Maria Bello, Sigourney Weaver and Elizabeth Rohm.

A well-respected director and a pretty decent cast, but one has to wonder if casting Lautner – who, let’s face it, has just as many haters as he does fans – in the lead role will help or hurt Abduction’s chances. Sure, he’s popular now, but who knows how much that will change once the Twilight series has run its course (it concludes next year), so it could be he’s just building up his resume while he can. On the one hand, there is a dearth of all-out action films in the near future (apart from one other film that I’ll mention in a bit), but that’s not exactly a selling point either.

Abduction will be bowing in about 3,000 theaters this Friday, and I think that will be enough to grab $15 million, along with three Top 5 points, possibly one or two PTA, a Rating in the 6’s and $41 million. It actually costs more than Moneyball (at $12 and $14 for Ult/BO), which pretty much tells me that it’s not worth it. In a less-crowded part of the docket, maybe, but not here.

Another type of movie that there seems to be a dearth of is feel-good family movies, something there really hasn’t been any of since The Smurfs. That oversight is corrected with Dolphin Tale, a Warner Bros. film that will be given a 3,200-theater debut, the largest of any film this week. Actor/director Charles Martin Smith (the short bespectacled guy in The Untouchables and Starman way back when) is behind the camera for this true-to-life fish story, erm, I mean, animal story (from the studio and producers that brought us The Blind Side), about a dolphin named Winter.

Winter, a bottlenose dolphin that lost her tail after becoming caught in a crab trap, will be playing herself in this movie. She is befriended by a young boy named Sawyer Nelson (Nathan Gamble), who encourages everyone around him to leap to her cause, including enlisting the aid of a prosthetics expert (the ageless Morgan Freeman) to help create a device that will serve as a replacement appendage for Winter’s tail. Dolphin Tale also stars Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson and Harry Connick Jr.

Two things about films of this nature: they tend to have mid-range debuts but terrific legs. (It’s not precisely a family, feel-good movie, but who expected Crazy, Stupid, Love to hang around in the Top 12 for two whole months? Just saying.) I think Dolphin's Tale will only open at about $12 million, but it should hang around in theaters for long enough to amass triple that overall. However, you’re looking at no more than three or four Top 5 points and a Rating that is anybody’s guess. Even for $9 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), this is a very risky proposition.

Next up is Killer Elite, and no, this is not the second remake of a Sam Peckinpah film in as many weeks. Rather, it is based on the 1991 novel The Feather Men, which was written by Sir Ranulph Fiennes (yes, he is distantly related to Ralph… they are third cousins). Directed by first-timer Gary McKendry and distributed by the diminutive Open Road films into 2,700 or so theaters, Killer Elite is the latest vehicle for laconic British action star Jason Statham.

Statham plays Danny Bryce, one of a group of vigilante special forces members assigned to investigate and eliminate a hit squad called “The Clinic”, who are responsible for a series of assassinations of members of the British SAS. Danny, along with his longtime mentor Hunter (Robert De Niro) find themselves pitted in a deadly international game of cat-and-mouse with The Clinic’s leader, known only as “Spike” (played by Clive Owen, back after a two-year absence). Dominic Purcell and Chuck mega-hottie Yvonne Strahovski also co-star.

I respect all three of the major players involved, but this is the worst time of year to be fielding a movie like this, and I have seen almost zero advertising for Killer Elite. Statham is a well-known commodity, but not one of his films where he’s gotten top billing – not even any of the Transporter films – has been a breakout hit at box offices, and Killer Elite certainly won’t be bucking that trend. For $9 (Ultimate) and $10 (Box Office), you can pretty much expect across-the-board disappointing stats. Say, an $8 million OW, no Top 5, no PTA, a lousy Rating and $22 million. Pass on this one.

A lot of notable names in the casts of this week’s films, aren’t there? Well, that trend continues with Machine Gun Preacher, an action/drama that will be opening upon in limited release (four theaters) this week before expanding to several hundred next week (I think). It tells the story of Sam Childers (played by 300 star Gerard Butler), a former biker-gang member who makes the life-changing decisions both to become born-again, and then to help repair homes that were destroyed during the civil war of the East African nation of Sudan, leaving behind a skeptical wife (Michelle Monaghan) and daughter (Madeleine Carroll). The director is Marc Forster (The Kite Runner, Monster’s Ball), and the supporting cast also includes Golden Globe-winning actress Kathy Baker.

Of course, being in the middle of a war-torn country is a thousand times worse than it looks on CNN, and Sam soon finds himself being caught between the country’s extremely vulnerable population (or, more specifically, an orphanage just breaking ground) and the LRA, a brutal militia that routinely “recruits” boys to become soldiers before they’re even teenagers. Finally, Sam decides to take up arms against the brutality, leading missions into enemy territory to retrieve kidnapped children, hoping to restore peace to his new community and his own turmoil-riddled life.

From the trailer, it looks like it contains elements of Hotel Rwanda and Tears of the Sun, both worthy movies in their own right, but I am finding it hard to recommend Machine Gun Preacher for your slates, even at a price tag of $4 (in both leagues). I don’t think it will earn enough PTA (if any) to warrant taking that risk in Ultimate leagues, and it certainly won’t expand enough to be worth it in Box Office. Plus, its current Rating (5.7 with 200 votes) gives me pause as well.

Last up is Thunder Soul, a documentary “presented” by Jamie Foxx and directed by Mark Landsman. It tells the noteworthy story of Houston’s Kashmere High School Stage Band, who, along with their leader, Conrad “Prof” Johnson, turned the school’s struggling jazz band into “a world-class funk powerhouse” in the early 1970’s. The film also chronicles the band’s endeavors to reunite, 35 years later, to pay tribute to the 92-year-old Prof, not only for the doors he opened for his students but for the life lessons he taught them as well.

I personally love the idea behind this film, and Jamie Foxx for putting it together. I am a big fan of 1970’s funk music, and I might even see this film at some point. However, I don’t think it’s a good fit for your slates for two reasons: first, it’s being put into 35 theaters, which is too many to be an effective source of PTA points, and its current Rating (only 6.3) doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Oh well, studios don’t create films to conform to OUR norms (more’s the pity), and Thunder Soul is one of them.


My predictions for the weekend of September 23-25, 2011:

1. Moneyball - $17 million
2. The Lion King 3D - $16 million
3. Abduction - $15 million
4. Dolphin Tale - $12 million
5. Contagion - $10 million
6. Killer Elite - $8 million
7. Drive - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out September with six more movies, which will be debuting on the last day of the month: Dream House, a horror film starring Daniel Craig, Naomi Watts and Rachel Weisz; What’s Your Number?, a romantic comedy starring Anna Faris; 50/50, a dramatic comedy starring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt; Courageous, a Christian film about cops finding their faith; Take Shelter, a Sundance entry from director Jeff Nichols; and Tucker& Dale vs. Evil, a horror comedy starring Alan Tudyk and Tyler Labine.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Larry Hagman (I Dream of Jeannie, Dallas) (80 on 9/21)
Luke Wilson (Old School, Legally Blonde) (40 on 9/21)
Alfonso Ribiero (Fresh Prince of Bel-Air) (40 on 9/21)
Nicole Richie (The Simple Life) (30 on 9/21)
Bonnie Hunt (Cars, Toy Story 3) (50 on 9/22)
Chi McBride (I Robot, Pushing Daisies) (50 on 9/23)
Mark Hamill (Star Wars) (60 on 9/25)
Heather Locklear (Dynasty, Melrose Place) (50 on 9/25)

Later!

[ARoode]

I've got a sneak peek ticket to go see 'Abduction.' Free ticket to go see a movie but, honestly, I kind of feel like they should pay me to see this one? Am I wrong? Have I been away for so long that my instincts have dulled?

Nice column Shryke -- As valuable as I remember it always was!

[Buscemi]

Slight error on Dolphin Tale: Nathan Gamble is the actor's name, not the character.

Early predictions have Moneyball at the big winner but Dolphin Tale being a close second. Abduction looks like a non-starter (does this really appeal to anyone?) and Killer Elite's predictions have been all over the place. I only just saw a trailer for the last one playing before a movie on Saturday. Before then, nothing.

[Shrykespeare]

Thanks for the catch, Boosh. I have corrected it above.

[ROBDude]

I'm looking forward to Moneyball. Might Go See Dolphin Tale since it's created by the same studio who did The Blind Side. I might go see Abduction as well. I'm not seeing Killer Elite because it is Rated R and my Dad doesn't want to see Killer Elite either.

[MisterInformative]

I am absolutely SHOCKED that Buscemi passed up an opportunity to rag on The Blind Side.

[Geezer]

Well, he expects Dolphin Tale to be huge, so it would be counter to his case, in this instance.

[W]

I think his expectations are a little lowered on Dolphin Tale, but he still expects it to be bigger than anyone I've seen. I don't see the audience.

[Buscemi]

Animal movies tend to do well (Free Willy, Babe and Marley and Me are some movies to compare it to) and I think the inspirational angle combined with the fact that the actual dolphin from the true story is playing herself will help it sell well.

The opening will be mild (about $14-18 million) but legs will great.

[Ron Burgundy]

im sorry to anyone that i offend but, i just dont care about dolpins, whats the big deal about them, why dont they make a movie called shark tale, oh wait, i mean, deep sea glowfish creature tale

[Buscemi]

Dolphins are intelligent creatures and they can be tough when provoked. They will also tell us when the world will end.

[undeadmonkey]

^haha, was that sarcasm from you boosh? is that a first or have previous attempts just flown under my radar? Either way, funny!

Your predictions look pretty good shryke, but i'll say that Moneyball opens with $20M. As for Abduction, it's hard to judge. The other two stars of the twilight regime have never had anything break out, but to be fair, a lot of their films have been indie or some niche genre. This is a straight up action thriller which could have broader appeal, It could do decent, game wise it might be a good bet. Personally though, I hope it's a huge flop with a $5M opening. Just to show hollywood that tween girls don't run the world. or am i just being bitter??

[Buscemi]

The last part was a reference to The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy. The dolphins are trying to warn humans that the world is ending but their call gets misinterpreted.

[Buscemi]

I have found out that Abduction will not be screened to critics. This is a major blow for the film, as Lionsgate is wanting to make it the start of a franchise.

Next week's Dream House will not be screened to critics either (understandable since it tested badly).

Other early Rotten Tomatoes ratings:

Dolphin Tale 100% (5/5)
Moneyball 89% (17/19)
Machine Gun Preacher 83% (5/7)
Killer Elite 50% (3/6)

The last three were screened in competition at Toronto.

[Chienfantome]

The last part was a reference to The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy. The dolphins are trying to warn humans that the world is ending but their call gets misinterpreted.

You can't do that Boosch ! When you put a great reference in a post of yours, you can't explain it in the next post, it kills the coolness of it !!