SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/16/11

[Shrykespeare]

Boy, the box office numbers for the last month-plus have been downright depressing, haven’t they? I mean, I know mid-August through late October tends to contain a lot of films that are basically no-hopers that get dumped into fall just because, but oy vey. Since the beginning of August, there have been two really great picks, one or two other decent ones, and the rest are just a mountain of crap.

And the bad news is, it’s not likely to get any better for the foreseeable future. So what do you do if you didn’t choose Rise of the Planet of the Apes or The Help, and passed on Contagion as well? Well, besides pray, I’d just say… be patient. If you’re in the September leagues, remember that you can still load up your slate with November films, and things tend to pick up once we hit the winter season. Of course, if you’re behind in the August-October leagues, and desperately need something to pick you up, well, you’re pretty much down to just praying.

Six films are being released this week, three wide and three limited. Now that The Help has been deposed after three straight weeks at #1, is the door wide open for new films to step through? Tough to say, honestly. A lot will depend on how well Steven Soderbergh’s latest outing Contagion holds after a pretty strong start. And with all three wide-release movies being given a platform between 2,400 and 2,800 screens (considerably fewer than Contagion), that makes the waters even murkier. Another thing to keep in mind: NONE of this week’s new films has a major studio distributing it, which means advertising for and awareness of these films may not be what you hope if you’re considering picking them.

The film with easily the most potential this week is Drive, an action drama from FilmDistrict and Danish director Nicholas Winding Refn (Bronson). It will be debuting in 2,400 locations this Friday, and it features rising star Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Albert Brooks, Bryan Cranston, Oscar Isaac, Allison Hendricks and Ron Perlman. On paper, the film looks to contain elements similar to both The Transporter and last winter’s Faster, with the major exception that the early reviews for Drive have been through the roof.

Gosling plays “Driver” (the same vague descriptive name that Dwayne Johnson had in Faster, ironically), a Hollywood stunt driver by day who moonlights as an underworld wheelman the rest of the time. Though a loner by nature, he finds himself falling for his neighbor Irene (Mulligan), a young mother who finds herself in a spot of bother after the return of her ex-con husband (Isaac). In an effort to help her out, Driver takes a job with a big payday, but it all goes pear-shaped and soon he’s on the run from crime boss Bernie Ross (Brooks).

Though it sounds like a straight-up action-slash-revenge film, the critics have been nearly unanimous in their praise of Drive. Don’t believe me? It was nominated for the coveted Palme d’Or award at Cannes this year, and actually won for Best Director for Refn. If that’s not enough, 18 of 19 reviews at RT thus far have been positive, calling the film “cool”, “brilliant”, “artistic” and a lot of other terrific adjectives. And if THAT’S not enough for you? It currently sports a User Rating of a whopping 8.9, and with over 1,700 votes already in the can, it’s not likely to change all that much.

I haven’t seen tons of advertising for Drive, but any film with this much universal praise tends to do well by sheer word-of-mouth (though that didn't help Warrior much, did it?). It will run you $10 in Ultimate leagues, and for that low price, I would consider snapping it up for the User Rating alone. I think it will have just enough oomph to win the weekend with about $15 million, on its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA and $45 million. That’s not a terrific dollars-earned-to-dollars-spent ratio, I know, but you’re not going to find many diamonds in the pile of manure that is September.

In 1971, a 34-year-old Dustin Hoffman starred in Straw Dogs, which was directed by controversial filmmaker Sam Peckinpah. Hoffman played David Sumner, a young American who moves with his English wife to a house in a small English rural town, only to find themselves under the scrutiny of some of the locals. Friendliness turns to harassment, harassment begets conflict, and before long, the whole situation escalates into violence (Peckinpah’s specialty).

Four decades later, Rod Lurie (The Last Castle) is remaking Straw Dogs, albeit in an American deep South setting, with James Marsden (X-Men) stepping into Hoffman’s shoes. It seems to be a straight-up remake… even the posters of both versions are nearly identical. Marsden’s David Sumner is a Hollywood screenwriter who moves with his wife Amy (Kate Bosworth) to her late father’s house in the boonies with the hopes of fixing it up and selling it. Enter Amy’s ex-BF Charlie (Alexander Skarsgard) and his friends, and… well, you can pretty much figure out the rest from the trailer. The film also co-stars Laz Alonso, Dominic Purcell, and… James Woods?! Haven’t seen him in a while! (In fact, it’s his first wide-release film since Be Cool in 2005.)

With Sony/Screen Gems as the distributor for this picture, I wouldn’t expect much in the way of returns. Both Straw Dogs and Drive are rated R (and both will be shown in approximately 2,400 locations), but Drive looks to be sexier and cooler to even the untrained eye, and Straw Dogs will probably get most of its viewership on DVD. I will predict an $8 million opening, on its way to $23 million, three Top 5 and a middling User Rating, potentially anywhere from 5.5 to 6.5. I would definitely pass on this one, especially given its $10/$11 price tags.

Third up on the docket is I Don’t Know How She Does It, a comedy film based on the bestselling novel of the same name by Allison Pearson. The film stars Sarah Jessica Parker as Kate Reddy, a high-powered executive in a Boston financial management firm by day and a high-powered supermom by night. She seems to effortlessly juggle work and family, which automatically makes her (a) implausible, and (b) enviable.

Of course, you can’t make a movie about someone whose life is perfect, so director Douglas McGrath (Infamous) has to throw in some conflict regarding her out-of-work architect husband Richard (Greg Kinnear) having to take on even more responsibility when Kate lands a lucrative new account that will have her traveling cross-country on a regular basis. And when you throw in a job offer that Richard can’t turn down and a flirtatious business partner (Pierce Brosnan) making eyes at Kate, the precarious balance that the Reddy’s life hangs on simply must topple, mustn’t it? The film also stars Olivia Munn, Kelsey Grammer, Jane Curtin and Christina Hendricks (wow… two movies on the same day!).

I’m sure the Weinsteins are hoping to attract women to see this film, but will women find Kate’s example empowering, jealousy-worthy or the impossible dream? Or will filmgoers be expecting another Sex and the City-type performance? Either way, I will not be predicting good things for I Don’t Know How She Does It. Say, a $7 million opening, $19 overall and a horrible Rating. This would be a perfect Bankrupts pick if we were doing that this month!

And now, a little bit about this week’s three limited-released films:

Restless ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – Acclaimed director Gus Van Sant (Good Will Hunting, Milk) is behind the camera for this film, which was screened in the “Un Certain Regard” section of the Cannes Film Festival this past May. It was also co-produced by not only Van Sant but directors Brian Grazer and Ron Howard, along with Ron’s daughter Bryce Dallas Howard (who plays the main antagonist in The Help).

The film centers on Annabel (Mia Wasakowska), a charming cancer patient who becomes friends with a young man named Enoch (Henry Hopper), who has dropped out of life after the accidental death of his parents. Enoch’s only friend appears to be the ghost of a Japanese kamikaze pilot from WWII (Ryo Kase), but he and Annabel soon begin a relationship of their own, as Enoch offers to help Annabel get a lifetime of experiences in the few weeks she has left.

I do not know at this time how many theaters will be screening Restless this Friday, and that’s something you’ll want to know. Because even though it’s Van Sant, and that alone will probably merit some PTA points, the reviews have not been good thus far. Only four of nine critics have liked it, calling the film “conventional”, “fuzzy”, and “clichéd”, adjectives not usually attributed to Van Sant. It’s got a decent Rating so far (7.1), but I’d still be wary. It’s not a horrible pick, but I would be more attracted to Jeff Nichols’ Take Shelter, another Cannes entry, for $1 less.

My Afternoons With Margueritte ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This feel-good French film stars Gerard Depardieu as Germain, a simple (and nearly illiterate) man in a small French town who befriends an elderly woman named Margueritte (Gisele Casadesus) while strolling through the park. Despite her frailty, Margueritte still possesses a sharp intellect, and before long, she’s reading him excerpts from some of her favorite novels. Before long, Germain finds his horizons broadening and his life being enriched, and all because of this little old lady.

Unlike Restless, Afternoons has been very well-reviewed, with an impressive score of 85% Fresh at RT (on 22/26 positive). It has a very reasonable Rating of 7.0 (with nearly 1,000 votes), and it will be showing in two locations this Friday. Plus, it’s French, and when you add all that up, it seems pretty clear that PTA points are in this film’s future. Depending on Restless’s theater count, I might even recommend Afternoons even higher.

The Mill and the Cross ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Polish director Lech Majewski helmed this historical drama, which was shown at this year’s Sundance Film Festival. It stars veteran actors Rutger Hauer, Michael York and Charlotte Rampling, and will be showing on one lone screen starting this Wednesday (NOT Friday). Taking place in Flanders in 1564 during its occupation by the Spanish, the film centers on Pieter Bruegel (Hauer), a painter whose works depict many powerful images, from the crucifixion of Christ to the brutality and religious persecution going on in the present day.

From the trailer, it would appear that Majewski is attempting to tell the story using a lot of vibrant colors, as if Brugel’s paintings were something you could step right into. However, this art-for-art’s-sake approach could go either way with moviegoers, who, along with critics, seem to be on the fence about this film. It’s got a good Rating (7.1), but with very few votes in the can, it could change considerably, though with only one theater showing it, it probably won’t. Just too many ifs for me.


My predictions for the weekend of September 16-18, 2011:

1. Drive - $15 million
2. Contagion - $13 million
3. Straw Dogs - $8 million
4. I Don’t Know How She Does It - $7 million
5. The Help - $5 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the quality of films looks to be marginally better, with four new wide release films coming on September 23rd, those being: Abduction, an action thriller starring Taylor Lautner; Moneyball, an underdog sports drama starring Brad Pitt; Dolphin Tale, a family drama starring Morgan Freeman; and Killer Elite, a gritty action film starring Jason Statham, Robert DeNiro and Clive Owen. I’ll also be talking about Machine Gun Preacher (a drama starring Gerard Butler) and Thunder Soul (a documentary produced by Jamie Foxx).

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Ian Holm (Lord of the Rings) (80 on 9/12)
George Jones (country music legend) (80 on 9/12)
Joe Pantoliano (Memento, The Matrix) (60 on 9/12)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) (30 on 9/12)
Jean Smart (24, Samantha Who?) (60 on 9/13)
Dave Mustaine (Megadeth lead singer) (50 on 9/13)
Tupac Shakur (rap legend) (would have been 40 on 9/13)
Dan Marino (hall of fame NFL quarterback) (50 on 9/14)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation, Baby Mama) (40 on 9/16)
Alexis Bledel (Gilmore Girls, Sin City) (30 on 9/16)
Cassandra Peterson (aka Elvira) (60 on 9/17)
James Gandolfini (The Sopranos) (50 on 9/18)
Jada Pinkett Smith (Madagascar, Collateral) (40 on 9/18)
Lance Armstrong (American cycling legend) (40 on 9/18)


Later!

[ROBDude]

I am looking forward to I Don't Know How She Does It because when i saw the trailer for this, it reminded me of Sex and the City due to the fact that Sarah Jessica Parker is in this movie.

[Buscemi]

MTC has The Lion King at $18 million (which is a bit of a stretch seeing that the Toy Story double feature did only $30 million in its entire run), Drive and Straw Dogs $8 million each and I Don't Know How She Does It at $7 million.

Nothing from RS yet but I expect wildly different numbers.

[undeadmonkey]

hmm, don't really know what to expect from The Lion King. All i do know is that I'm really excited to go see it on the big screen, more than any film this year, bar one or two, and wouldn't it be something if it opened at number one. How would that work with the game again?

[Geezer]

It gets completely ignored.

[W]

If Lion King is in the top 5, does it take points away from other movies? Considering it's a re-release, I don't think it should count at all.

[Geezer]

It doesn't. It is as if the movie never existed.

[silversurfer19]

No, it won't. It's not included in the game and so is judged as if it doesn't exist. What I don't understand entirely though is, when a new season begins every new movie is pretty much guaranteed PTA points as movies from previous months are discounted, why is this not the same for Top 5 points? Point in case: last weekend Apollo 18 finished below The Help and so only scored 3 top 5 points, but in the PTA category The Help was dismissed. I don't understand why there are different rules for each category.

[Shrykespeare]

You'd have to ask the Italians that question. I'm sure they had a good reason but damned if I can think what that might be. It's a quirk I've learned to adapt to.

[silversurfer19]

I know, it's not a big issue, just I forgot about it when picking my slates for this month and put Apollo 18 on all of my Ultimate leagues thinking I had at least 4 top 5s in the bag. No big deal, just a little annoying.

[numbersix]

The Italians will say it~s because these were the original rules, but that still sounds odd to me.

[Chienfantome]

It does lack logic...

[Buscemi]

MTC estimates:

Straw Dogs: mid teens
I Don't How She Does It: low double digits
Drive: high single digits
The Lion King: high single digits

I think Drive is being underestimated while Straw Dogs is being overestimated (the latter has been on the shelf for a year and tested horribly).

[Chienfantome]

I certainly hope so Boosch.
I don't want to live in a world where a Straw Dogs remake doubles Drive's numbers at the box-office !

[Buscemi]

Same time last year, you had The Town being underestimated while Devil and Easy A were overestimated. Every fall, at least one adult-aimed thriller does well (The Debt doesn't count since that was a summer release). I think this is the one.