SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/9/11

[Shrykespeare]

And The Help just a-keeps on a-rolling. Over Labor Day weekend, the seemingly unstoppable period drama scored its third straight box office victory, the first film to do so since last summer’s Inception (and probably the first to win three straight after not even debuting at #1 EVER). As anticipated, the three new films were not even close, though the espionage drama The Debt mildly surprised by taking the #2 spot ahead of Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D despite being in much fewer theaters.

I’ve been comparing the level of box-office success from the films of 2011 to the films of 2010, and some of the numbers are staggering. Take a look:

+$100 million: 2010 – 30 films; 2011 – 21 films
+$150 million: 2010 – 15 films; 2011 – 11 films
+$200 million: 2010 – 10 films; 2011 – 5 films
+$250 million: 2010 – 7 films; 2011 – 3 films
+$300 million: 2010 – 4 films; 2011 – 2 films

Granted, it’s still early, and with November and December containing 15-20 films with the potential to hit $100 if the climate is right, a lot of the above numbers may even out, but one thing is clear… 2011 will finish with a lot more modest hits and not nearly as many gigantic hits. And with virtually no films coming in September or October with blockbuster potential, it means you have only two options where the September leagues are concerned: you can back-load your slates with November films (which is certainly an option, but you’d better pray it works), or you can try to sift through the pile of interim films to try to find the one that could rise above the rest.

Bottom line: there are FIFTEEN wide-release films coming out in the next four weeks, and the threshold for “standing out” would seem to be $50 million, not $100 million. And if there is one September film that would seem, on paper, to have that much potential, it would, hands down, be Contagion, the latest project from notable director Steven Soderbergh, who has helmed such films as Erin Brockovich, Traffic, and, of course, the Ocean’s Integers films. Contagion stars, in its lead, Matt Damon, who appeared not only in the Ocean’s series but also Soderbergh’s last outing, The Informant!

The story: a virus has been unleashed on the world, and the first one affected is Minnesota family man Thomas Emhoff (Damon), as agents from the CDC and the World Health Organization try to determine where the disease came from before a global pandemic ensues. The exceptional cast also include Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Laurence Fishburne, Marion Cotillard and Gwyneth Paltrow (that is a lot of Oscar noms for one cast), not to mention Bryan Cranston, Jennifer Ehle, Elliott Gould, Sanaa Lathan and John Hawkes. Wow.

Contagion is set to debut in over 3,100 theaters this Friday, which is a pretty big platform for this time of year. Early word of mouth has been promising, and the reviews that I’ve read seem to agree that the film is well-shot, and viewers will leave the theater with their guts clenched, having just seen a story that could very well occur in today’s world. And therein lies what is perhaps the one drawback the film has.

Films that deal with tragedy that strike a little close to home are usually hard sells at the cinema, which is why films about the war or terror or the Middle East have uniformly failed to produce positive results. For a film with a premise comparable to Contagion, you’d probably have to cite Wolfgang Petersen’s 1995 film Outbreak, which had a similarly spectacular cast. It made $67 million in a March release, which would probably be close to $100 million when adjusted for inflation. But whereas that film was more about the drama and the conflict than about the paranoia and the fear, the comparison has to end right there.

This being September, I am loathe to predict much higher an OW than $22 million for Contagion. The Help has held sway for a month now, but I have to believe audiences are looking for something else to see, and this is probably it. Thing is, it will run you $14 in the September Ultimate leagues ($15 in Box Office), and for that, you can expect about eight or nine Top 5 points, several PTA, an excellent Rating in the 7.5 rang and probably about $55 million. Is that enough to take it? In Box Office, I’d still have to say no. However, in Ultimate, it will give you decent stats in the other three categories, which will probably end up being better than every other mediocre title in September.

I was a little surprised when I discovered that Warrior, the latest outing from Lionsgate and director Gavin O’Connor (Miracle, Pride and Glory) was only going to be showing in 1,700 theaters. I mean, I know Lionsgate isn’t exactly Warner Bros. or Universal when it comes to distribution, but still! From the trailer, it looks like the mixed-martial-arts equivalent of last year’s Oscar-winning The Fighter, and everyone loves a good sports underdog story (cough cough Geezer cough cough), so I fully expected at least 2,500 locations.

The Fighter came out right at the peak of Oscar season, and starred a well-known, marketable actor in Mark Wahlberg. Warrior, while it does have some up-and-coming stars, most notably Tom Hardy (who was great in Inception and will be coming up in The Dark Knight Rises), it's not exactly chock full of household names. Hardy stars as Tom Reardon, an ex-Marine who is trained by his father Paddy (Nick Nolte), a former boxer and alcoholic, to compete in a mixed martial arts tournament. This puts Tom on a collision course with his older brother Brendan (Aussie actor Joel Edgerton, who will also be in The Thing prequel next month), a former fighter turned high school physics teacher. Jennifer Morrison, Kevin Dunn and Noah Emmerich also co-star.

Word of mouth for Warrior has also been very good, and the reviews have been terrific. Currently sporting an RT score of 89% on 17/19 reviews, you can probably expect Warrior to have a very good Rating as well (maybe not as good as The Fighter’s 8.0, but not far off). And while a 1,700-theater platform is not necessarily a deal-breaker, especially given what The Help has accomplished in only 2,500-2,800 locations, I don’t imagine that Warrior will give quite the numbers we expected nor that it deserves. Still, it’s only $9 (in both leagues), and for that, you can get six Top 5 points, a great Rating and $42 million overall. It’s a gamble, to be sure, but perhaps one worth taking.

At the other end of the spectrum from these two worthy dramas is Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star, a low-level comedy starring Nick Swardson (30 Minutes or Less) and directed by Tom Brady (The Hot Chick). The script was co-written by Swardson and Adam Sandler and is being distributed by Happy Madison productions, but don’t let that sway your thinking… this film is DOA.

The title character in Bucky Larson (Swardson) is a nerdish small-town boy who discovers that his quiet, unassuming parents used to be adult film stars in the 1970’s. This motivates him to move to Hollywood to follow in their footsteps, despite the considerable drawbacks of being ugly as sin, sporting a horrible overbite and being… well, hung like a chihuahua. Of course, this has the benefit of making his “viewers” feel sexy by comparison, so Bucky becomes a big star. Christina Ricci, Stephen Dorff and Don Johnson co-star.

Yes, it’s Dickie Roberts: Child Star meets Boogie Nights, but without the positive attributes of either. (OMG, did I just reference Dickie Roberts as a positive?! Please slap me.) And yes, it’s only $5 in Ultimate leagues ($6 in Box Office), but just forget about taking this. Even with the box office foundering, this will still not even make it into the Top 5, say, a $5 million opening and $12 overall. It will earn no Top 5 points, no PTA, and its current Rating is an abysmal 3.0. Do I really need to go any further?

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Burke and Hare ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – I just added this film to the list, a British black period comedy from veteran director John Landis. Yes, the man behind such classics as Animal House, The Blues Brothers and Trading Places crossed the pond to make this film, which takes place in 19th-century Scotland.

Based on true events, Burke and Hare stars Simon Pegg and Andy Serkis (playing a human being for once) in the title roles, who are two con artists who decide to make a quick buck by robbing graves and selling them to Edinburgh’s most prestigious medical school. Of course, this activity is frowned upon by the local constabulary, and the nefarious duo must find a way to evade capture while plying their trade. The film also stars Isla Fisher, Tom Wilkinson, Tim Curry and Sir Christopher Lee.

Burke and Hare sounds like a winner, but sadly, I don’t think it is. It will be playing in only one theater, which is usually not enough to produce PTA points. Additionally, it has gotten very poor reviews (only 9/30 positive at RT), and its current Rating (6.1) is not that stellar either. It might be worth a look on DVD, but for the game, no.

Love in Space ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – No, this is not a sci-fi movie. Rather, it is a Chinese romantic comedy/drama that will be bowing in 16 locations this Friday. I can’t tell you much about the film beyond its one-sheet description: “Love In Space is an ensemble romantic comedy that follows a mother and her three grown daughters as they juggle their assorted love lives. Each woman is successful in everything except love - until they unexpectedly encounter new romances in Beijing, Sydney and even on the moon.” Oh. I guess there is some sci-fi after all.

Check out the trailer, which is… weird, to say the least. I’m not entirely sure how this will translate to American audiences. Of course, it’s entirely possible that indie cinephiles will eat it up, so if you want to burn $2 on it, be my guest. If $2 is all you have to spend, you’ve little to lose.


My predictions for the weekend of September 9-11, 2011:

1. Contagion - $22 million
2. Warrior - $13 million
3. The Help - $11 million
4. The Debt - $6 million
5. Rose of the Planet of the Apes - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we plow on through September with six new films, including: Drive, an action drama starring Ryan Gosling; Straw Dogs, a thriller starring James Marsden and Kate Bosworth; I Don’t Know How She Does It, a comedy starring Sarah Jessica Parker; as well as three limited release-films, The Mill and the Cross, My Afternoons with Margueritte, and Gus Van Sant’s latest film, Restless.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Skandar Keynes (Edmund in the Narnia films) (20 on 9/5)
Michael Keaton (Batman, Toy Story 3) (60 on 9/5)
Chrissie Hynde (The Pretenders' lead singer) (60 on 9/7)
Jonathan Taylor Thomas (Home Improvement) (30 on 9/8)
David Arquette (Scream 4) (40 on 9/8)
Henry Thomas (E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial) (40 on 9/9)
Tom Wopat (The Dukes of Hazzard [TV show]) (60 on 9/9)
Virginia Madsen (Sideways) (50 on 9/11)

Later!

[numbersix]

I think the star power of Contagion should make it the biggest earner of the month. Reviews will affect its legs, so it could earn anything from 40-70mil in total.
I'm not sure about Warrior, but it can't do any worse than this week's films.
Bucky Larson: avoid, avoid.
As for the PTa films, Burke and Hare might nab 1 point if it's lucky (just because it's out in 1 theatre), but I'm avoiding both

1. Contagion - $20 million
2. Warrior - $15 million
3. The Help - $10 million
4. The Debt - $6 million
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $6 million

[transformers2]

I'm still not sold on Contagion, despite it's great cast. I think Shryke makes a point with saying people might not want to see it due to the subject matter. I am a believer in Warrior, I believe it's the surprise hit of the next few months.

[ROBDude]

I'm looking forward to Contagion. Not because of the great cast, but the IMAX Release it has been given. Warrior does remind me of The Fighter, so I'll probably go see that too. I am DEFINETELY NOT Seeing Bucky Larson. I can declare Bucky Larson as the Worst Comedy ever Made! I mean, when I first saw the trailer for it, Nick Swardson's performance was a no good to me. I am SO Avoiding that film even if it succeeds at box office, I'm still not seeing it.

P.S. I want Bucky Larson to flop at the box office!

[Buscemi]

Contagion will do just fine. Disaster films usually fare well and combined with its star power and manageable length (final run time is just 106 minutes), I will go with a $25 million weekend.

Warrior is opening in a small amount of theatres and it's been on the shelf for a year but the reviews are good and it looks like a mini-Fighter. I'll go with a $10-11 million weekend.

Bucky Larson has also been on the shelf for a year but possibly for good reason. Nick Swardson isn't a star (most people probably think of him as "that annoying gay guy from the Adam Sandler movies and RENO 911!") and Adam Sandler isn't known for being a writer. I'll say $2-3 million for the weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think both Contagion and Warrior will do well. And I'll definitely be seeing both this weekend.

[englishozzy]

I really like the premise of The Warrior but its just not in enough cinemas for me to warrant putting it on my slates. Saw Burke & Hare in the cinemas a few months back, had some moments but overall a real dissapointment.

1. Contagion - $19 million
2. Warrior - $11 million
3. The Help - $8 million
4. The Debt - $6 million
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes $5.5 million

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, I've seen Burke & Hare this week-end, and it really wasn't great. It could have been fun, but it's quite lazy, with weak jokes and an underdevelopped screenplay. The curiosity of John Landis' name might attract some, but I don't see it bringing much PTA...

[Buscemi]

The self-distributed horror film Creature (produced by former Universal head Sid Sheinberg and starring Sid Haig from House of 1,000 Corpses and The Devil's Rejects) is going to be opening in 1,500 theatres this week. That's more than Bucky Larson's current estimate of 1,400.

I'm going to predict $800,000 on that one. I may catch it to see if it's any good (it's got Sid Haig, so it should be a decent slice of cheese).

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Contagion - 3,222
Warrior - 1,869
(Creature) - 1,507
Bucky Larson - 1,500
Love in Space - 16
Burke and Hare - 1


Estimates for next week:

I Don't Know How She Does It - 2,800
Drive - 2,400
Straw Dogs - 2,400
(The Lion King 3D) - 2,200
My Afternoons With Margueritte - 2
The Mill and the Cross (Wed) - N/A
Restless - N/A

[Buscemi]

I Don't Know How She Does It is being sneak previewed Saturday night. Seeing the weak reception of Sex and the City 2 and the fact that this basically looks like Sex and the City 3, I can't see word of mouth being good.

Meanwhile, Rotten Tomatoes ratings:

Warrior 83% (60/72, Certified Fresh)
Contagion 81% (59/73, Certified Fresh)
Burke and Hare 33% (13/39)
Love in Space 50% (1/2, not official yet)
Creature 25% (1/4, not official yet)
Bucky Larson -- (no reviews yet)

[ROBDude]

Good News Guys. Bucky Larson currently has a 0% Rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

[undeadmonkey]

I also have good news guys, the sun rose in the east this morning

[silversurfer19]

Actually, the sun won't rise in the east until the Fall Equinox....

[transformers2]

I also have good news guys, the sun rose in the east this morning

No fucking way. How did that happen? I am also stunned Bucky Larson is at 0% on RT. There was a lot of Oscar buzz surrounding it, what a letdown.