SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Help, $14.2M (19 Top 5 points now)
4 points - The Debt, $9.7M
3 points - Apollo 18, $8.7M
2 points - Shark Night, 8.6M
1 point - Planet of the Apes, $7.8M
Colombiana, $7.4M
Our Idiot Brother, $5.2M
Don't Be Afraid, $4.9M
Spy Kids 4, $4.6M
The Smurfs, $4M

PTA (Jul/Aug):
5 points - Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
4 points - Higher Ground
3 points - The Debt
2 points - The Help
1 point - Circumstance

PTA (Sep):
5 points - Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
4 points - The Debt
3 points - Shark Knight
2 points - Apollo 18

No word yet on Love Crime.


User Ratings:

Apollo 18 - 7.6
The Debt - 7.1
Shark Night - 5.9
Gainsbourg - 6.8
Love Crime - 6.4

[transformers2]

I am so pissed I didn't take The Help in any leagues. Boneheaded move on my part.

[Chienfantome]

High Five for Gainsbourg

[silversurfer19]

Glad I took Gainsbourg in most ultimate leagues. Gotta give props to Boussh though for calling The Debt, didn't see that coming at all and was a little disappointed in Apollo 18.

[Chienfantome]

Most of all, it's not that The Debt did good, but Apollo and Shark really did bad.

[Buscemi]

You don't doubt Focus Features on Labor Day weekend.

[MisterInformative]

Are we SURE those aren't 5-day numbers?

[silversurfer19]

BOM has The Debt listed as $2.6m for Friday, $3.6m for Saturday and $3.6m for Sunday - $9.8m total. Obviously though they are only estimates.

[MisterInformative]

Then wow, no Sunday dropoff. I know it's a holiday weekend and all, but usually you still see at least some drop between Saturday and Sunday.

[Ron Burgundy]

so, why did i drop The Debt from all my slates then, hmm mr speare, mr ill spear right to the heart of Ron Bs epic gameplan?! I never heard The Help would do 100m either....

kiddingmate, i know u didnt pick em either

[silversurfer19]

It was quite interesting actually, because I thought my slates for August leagues would be doomed without The Help on the majority of them, but I noticed virtually nobody picked it for quite a few leagues, so we are all really in the same boat. Having it would virtually guarantee a league victory though.

[Shrykespeare]

Not necessarily, surfer. It's still just one movie, and one or two bad picks could easily offset it. Chien has it one his BO slates, but the problem is, he did NOT pick Transformers 3. So picking The Help will bring him very close to the cut-line, but it won't put him above it. Lucky for him he has an IM.

In Ultimate, however, yes, The Help (along with PotA) is a game-breaker.

[silversurfer19]

I was certainly only referring to the ultimate game, and in particular the August leagues. Having a movie bring in the amount of money and top 5s it has on such a small percentage of a budget should theoretically ensure a league victory, if, as you say, the rest of the picks made are not beyond awful.

[Chienfantome]

My problem in the August Ultimate leagues is that I have neither The Help nor Planet of the Apes on them.... I know I'm doomed.

[numbersix]

What's worse, is that I had The Help on every slate until the week it was released, and dropped it from most in a moment of blind panic. Should have trusted my gut (then again, my gut said Glee 3D would be a hit. Bad gut!). Now I have a load of leagues with crap like Final Destination and 30 minutes which will kill me.