SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Buscemi »

But being based on a best-selling book doesn't always translate to good box office. See The Kite Runner (which sold over 10 million copies) and The Road.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Brockster »

I know, but my point was that Warrior doesn't have something else going for it like The Help did to make up for it's lack of theaters...I don't think the MMA crowd is large enough to make this a hit based on the theater count.

I'm rooting for it though, I think it looks good.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Boussh, you're comparing 1700 location movies to The Help again. Didn't you learn anything from The Debt? I really want it to do well, it's gotten excellent reviews, but opening in 1700 locations in September is suicide. Expect nothing better than $30m max now, even with an expansion.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Buscemi »

The Help opened in 2,300 theatres. 1,700 vs. 2,300 isn't apples and oranges. Both are mid-level.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Avatar opened in 3,500 theatres, ergo every movie in that range should bring in $750m....

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by thswrestler160 »

well just so you guys know I went to one of the sneaks on wed for warrior and it was one of the best movies I've seen this year. I would go as far as to say that it was better than The Fighter. The performances weren't really much worse but there were more fights in this one and they were better. I also liked the family dynamic better in Warrior. That being said... there were only 40 ppl in our screen which is kinda low for a free movie but many of the other theaters were reporting sold out shows and we turned alot of ppl away that wanted to see it away because they did not have the GoFoBo tickets that were required. WOM on it has been great so far. I dont expect it to open bigger than contagion but I can definitely see it making 40-45 even with the low starting count.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

$40-$45M for a $9 investment sounds pretty good. The question is, how will it hold with four new movies debuting in each of the following three weeks...

And Jesus, when are they going to drop the other shoe and announce the postponements of The Big Year and Wanderlust? You know it's coming, but waiting for it to happen is like waiting for a bomb to go off.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

What's The Big Year?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by ROBDude »

The Big Year is a comedy about a group of men who are on a quest to outdo each other by finding the highest number of birds in North America, which includes the challenges they have faced in their lives.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Buscemi »

The Big Year has had its trailer submitted to the MPAA and should be enclosed with Warrior or I Don't Know How She Does It. Fox has a new president of marketing and the studio was waiting until she was officially inducted to show it for approval.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates (BOM):

The Help, $3.63M
Apollo 18, $2.84M
Shark Night, $2.83M
The Debt, $2.61M
Colombiana, $2.00M
Planet of the Apes, $1.85M
Don't Be Afraid, $1.45M
Our Idiot Brother, $1.42M
Spy Kids 4, $1.04M
The Smurfs, $875K


Weekend Projections (BO):

The Help, $14.3M
The Debt, $9.5M (?)
Apollo 18, $8.2M
Shark Night, $8M
Colombiana, $7.5M
Planet of the Apes, $7.3M
Our Idiot Brother, $5.3M
Don't Be Afraid, $5M
Spy Kids 4, $4.5
The Smurfs, $4M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Geezer »

The Help is going to single handedly win leagues for everyone that took it. When's the last time we could definitively say that about any film?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

Dark Knight?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Geezer »

Well I know we wouldn't have to go that far back. Avatar is certainly one that did that. Dark Knight certainly qualifies. Just wondering if there have been any since then.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

Post by Buscemi »

Alice in Wonderland?

And the estimates now have The Debt with $9.7 million for the weekend.
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