SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/2/11

[Shrykespeare]

Goodness gracious. This is the first weekend I can remember where you could almost have the box office contest called on account of bad weather. Not that this weekend’s movies would have broken the bank anyway, but hurricane Irene can probably take the blame for this past weekend’s numbers being about 33% less than they would have otherwise. However, kudos must continue to go to The Help, which has won two consecutive weeks (after debuting at #2... has that EVER happened before?) and may very well win this week as well.

What does this mean? Well, though there’s no way of knowing whether the aftereffects of Irene will continue to pummel the box office potential to the same alarming degree, but I can tell you that the films that traditionally come out on the first Friday of September tend to be… well, useless. Last year, The American won with only $13 million (and was one of only three films to top $10 million). The previous year, only one new film (All About Steve) even broke $10 million, and it finished at #3. The year before that, Bangkok Dangerous actually finished in first place with a putrid $7.8 million. Get the picture?

Well, so much of this year has been atypical, so maybe the 2011 crop of Labor Day weekend movies can do something atypical, and actually represent a rebound from the previous week. It won’t be much of one, but you never know. If there is one film coming this weekend that has a chance of toppling The Help from its throne, it would have to be Apollo 18, the oft-postponed sci-fi/horror film from Weinstein/Dimension, which will be debuting in 2,750 theaters this Friday.

This film, which has been promoted fairly well as less of a horror/thriller and more of a factual “found footage” gimmick (like Paranormal Activity), follows a (supposedly) classified eighteenth rocket trip to the moon in December 1974, a trip that ended in tragedy and was subsequently never disclosed to the general public. The reason for this tragedy, if you can’t discern from the trailer, is that the two-man crew (played by unknown actors Lloyd Owen and Warren Christie) apparently discover parasitic life-forms on the lunar surface, parasites that also claimed the lives of an equally-classified Russian cosmonaut mission.

It is, frankly, a relief to finally see this film pushed into theaters, after watching it ping-pong from release date to release date (it moved from March to April to July to next January to August to – finally – September). With all this waffling by the studio to give Apollo 18 a release platform, does it have a chance to succeed? Perhaps.

Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t have thought any film on this particular weekend could topple a film earning money the way The Help has. But all good things come to an end, and the meteorological misfortune that befell Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark may serve to help Apollo 18. For only $8 in the September Ultimate leagues ($9 in Box Office), you may end up with seven Top 5 points, three PTA, and a very decent Rating (currently at 8.1 with over 400 votes). It probably won’t earn much more than $30 million total, but if it holds well, it could be a very decent pick for you.

Up next is Shark Night 3D, which is being brought to about 2,400 theaters courtesy of Relativity Media and director David R. Ellis (who helmed Snakes on a Plane and the second and fourth Final Destination movies). Obviously, the first thing the title reminds you of is Piranha 3D, which chewed its way to $25 million last year (and to which the sequel is due in a few months).

There’s not much mystery about the plot: seven friends from Tulane University decide to spend a weekend at a lake house near Louisiana’s Lake Ponchartrain, only to come under a series of attacks from a group of man-eating sharks, which is a rather odd occurrence for fresh-water lakes, to say the least. Obviously, there is something more sinister going on, and those that survive will undoubtedly have to deal not only with the sharks but the humans who put them in the lake to begin with. The film stars Sara Paxton (The Last House on the Left), Dustin Milligan (Extract, 90210), Katharine McPhee (The House Bunny) and Donal Logue.

So: two horror movies. Which one are people more likely to see? Given the current trend of “found-footage” horror films like Paranormal Activity and the apathy generated by Piranha 3D, I will venture that Apollo 18 will win this particular battle. Still, Piranha 3D managed a $10 million OW, so I’ll predict $9 million for Shark Night’s first three days. And as for the 3D aspect… well, just add it to the ever-growing list of 3D films that didn’t need to be 3D films. It’s only $7 in Ultimate, and for that, you may get three Top 5 points and a couple of PTA, but that’s about it. Better films are coming, and Shark Night will barely be a memory by the time October gets here.

The third wide-release film this week is another that has been moved a few times on the release docket. That film is The Debt, and it is by far the most interesting-looking story of the bunch. Sadly, it’ll probably generate the least amount of interest, and that’s a shame, especially when you take into account the exceptional cast, the director, and the screenwriters involved.

The Debt is an espionage thriller brought to theaters by Focus Features and director John Madden (Shakespeare in Love). With a script penned by Matthew Vaughan (director of Kick-Ass) and Jane Goldman (who co-wrote Kick-Ass as well as X-Men: First Class), the film is told in two parts, following the three main characters both as young adults in 1966 as well as several decades later (in 1997).

Retired Mossad secret agents Rachel Singer (Helen Mirren) and Stefan Gold (Tom Wilkinson) receive shocking news about former colleague David Peretz (Ciaran Hinds), and reason that it has to do with what happened in 1966 when the three of them (played by Jessica Chastain, Martin Csokas and Sam Worthington) tracked down an infamous Nazi war criminal Dieter Vogel (Jesper Christensen), a mission for which all three of them were venerated by their government. But apparently a lot happened in those early days, and now the past has come back to haunt them.

This is exactly the kind of thriller that I love, the kind of story that Chris McQuarrie may have written (like 2008’s Valkyrie). Due to debut in only 1,750 theaters this Wednesday, however, I fear that The Debt, which was originally scheduled to be in theaters last Christmas, will barely appear on the radars of filmgoers at all. I’ll give mature audiences the benefit of the doubt that say that the film will open to $7 million, and earn two Top 5 points, two PTA and have a passable Rating (currently at 6.9 with over 450 votes). Even for $7/$8 in the September leagues, I don’t think this is a worthy pick.

It’s always good to take notice when a limited-release film is French, because French films tend to do very well with the indie crowd. And this week, there are not one, but two of them, and both of them carry the same price tag of $3 in Ultimate. Both of them are being given single-digit theater counts, and both of them have very similar User Ratings. Whew. This may be a tough call… The first is Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, a biopic of sorts that is directed by Joann Sfar, who also wrote the graphic novel that the film is based on, the story of French painter and jazz musician Serge Gainsbourg (being played by Eric Elmosnino).

Born in 1921, Serge grew up in Nazi-occupied Paris, but he survived to become an iconic singer/songwriter in the 1960’s. However, apart from his artistic work, he was also known for his vivacious personality, which led to dalliances with many famous French actresses of the time, including Brigitte Bardot. Of course, there was a darker side to him as well, a narcissistic, self-loathing side, and Elmosnino seems to have brought that portrayal to life as well.

A Heroic Life won three Cesar Awards this year (that’s like the French Oscars), including Best Actor for Elmosino and Best Debut for director Sfar. It has gotten rave reviews thus far (29 of 34 positive on RT) and has a decent Rating as well (6.8 with over 2,500 votes). It will be bowing in three theaters this Friday, and, with this being the first week of a new league, it is a prime candidate for at least five PTA points. For $3, you will easily get what you need from it.

Of course, you have to take into consideration Love Crime, a French crime thriller that will be debuting in five locations the same day. It also has a good Rating (6.4 with over 600 votes). However, the reviews haven’t been quite as good (it’s only at 50% on 8/16 reviews at RT), but on the plus side, the two female leads may be more recognizable to American audiences, those being Kristin Scott Thomas and Ludivine Sagnier. Love Crime also happens to be the final project of renowned French director Alain Corneau, who passed away in August of last year, and that may be another factor to consider.

The story: a powerful executive named Christine (Scott Thomas) hires a naïve young ingénue named Isabelle (Sagnier) as her assistant, and delights in exploiting said naivety as she imposes her own personal ruthless professional philosophy. However, when Christine decides to take one of Isabelle’s ideas and pass it off as her own, a battle of wits ensues, and Christine discovers that she may have severely underestimated her underling.

So which is the better pick? Gainsbourg has more critical acclaim, and Love Crime has the better pedigree. I am inclined to lean more toward Gainsbourg simply because the last French thriller, Point Blank, failed to glean any PTA points at all. However, both titles are guaranteed at least one PTA point each (probably more considering the competition), so no matter which way you go, you’ll probably like what you get from them.


My predictions for the weekend of September 2-4, 2011 (Fri-Sun only):

1. Apollo 18 - $13 million
2. The Help - $11 million
3. Shark Night 3D - $9 million
4. The Debt - $7 million
5. Colombiana - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four more films take center stage, and at least two of them have some potential, and they are: Contagion, an action/thriller from director Steven Soderbergh starring Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow and Kate Winslet; Warrior, a sports drama starring Tom Hardy and Joel Edgerton; Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star, a low-grade comedy starring Nick Swardson; and Love in Space, a Chinese romantic drama.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Carla Gugino (Watchmen, Sucker Punch, next up in New Year’s Eve) (40 on 8/29)
Mark Harmon (NCIS) (60 on 9/2)
Beyonce Knowles (Dreamgirls, Obsessed) (30 on 9/4)

Later!

[undeadmonkey]

I'll be surprised if any of the new releases make more than $10M

[ROBDude]

Apollo 18 is one film that should top next week's box office. I mean, and I know Shryke has already announced it, it's like Paranormal Activity but in space. The Paranormal Activity films were successes at the box office, so Apollo 18 might be a success as well.

[Buscemi]

My predictions:

1. Apollo 18 $13 million
2. The Debt $12 million ($15 million five-day) (This is really being underestimated, The American had a $19 million five-day at the same time last year so why can't Helen Mirren and Tom Wilkinson have a similar result that George Clooney had?)
3. The Help $10 million
4. Shark Night 3-D $8 million (It's just a watered-down Piranha clone, people who liked that movie will just wait for Piranha 3-DD and its outright campiness.)
5. Colombiana $6 million

[silversurfer19]

2. The Debt $12 million ($16 million five-day) (This is really being underestimated, The American had a $19 million five-day at the same time last year so why can't Helen Mirren and Tom Wilkinson have a similar result that George Clooney had?)

Probably something to do with The American opening in 1100 locations more...

[Buscemi]

Sites aren't everything, you know.

[silversurfer19]

When you're asking a movie to do more than $8000 PTA you're expecting a lot from a semi-wide release.

[Buscemi]

The Help did $10,000 PTA in 2,300 theatres.

[silversurfer19]

Come on, even YOU must admit The Debt won't come close to The Help. Over the year virtually every movie opening in less than 2000 locations have struggled to make even $5000 PTA. This, especially in the current climate, will fare no different. I'd bet my life it won't open higher than $8.5m, and you know you're kidding yourself just contemplating the idea.

[Buscemi]

The Help had 600 more theatres and did about $3,000 PTA more than what I'm predicting. For the first two days, I'm predicting $3 million in 1,700 theatres. Not hard of an accomplishment. A $12 million weekend in 1,700 theatres is about $7,058 PTA. It's doable and adults want something to watch this weekend that isn't named The Help.

[silversurfer19]

I've just checked (though you are welcome to correct me) and not a single movie this year opening semi wide in less than 2000 locations have managed better than $5000 PTA in the OW, yet you think this, a movie which has been dumped in what is notoriously one of the worst weekends of the year, will perform to the tune of $7000. Even movies like African Cats couldn't match that. You are washing away every ounce of credibility you have with every word you type, Boussh...

[Buscemi]

This isn't one of those movies. This is a movie with a name cast and a script by Matthew Vaughn and Jane Goldman. And early reviews have been positive. Outside of The Help, there really hasn't been an adult-aimed film with decent reviews this summer. With a Wednesday opening and expected good word-of-mouth, do not doubt it.

Also, to say that I have no credibility when you've never won a league is a bit off the mark.

[silversurfer19]

I didn't say you had no credibility, I think quite the opposite in fact. But you will begin to lose some with such outlandish predictions. And that score of my league wins will be settled on three, possibly four fronts in the next month.

You go and put The Debt on every slate you can though if you think it will be so successful though, your decision....

[Buscemi]

I never expected a $12 million prediction would lead to such a flame war.

[silversurfer19]

Nobody ever expects The Spanish Inquisition! [wink]