SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Buscemi
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Buscemi »

I knew there was some Shryke/Emma Stone loving going on.

Surprisingly enough, I thought she was Jewish.
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ROBDude
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by ROBDude »

Here are my BOM Derby Predictions for this week:

1. Our Idiot Brother $20.1
2. The Help $11.1
3. Colombiana $10.8
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes $9.5
5. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark $8.7
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Buscemi »

Early Estimates:

1. The Help $11 million
2. Colombiana sub $10 million
3. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark $6-7 million
4. Our Idiot Brother $6-7 million
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undeadmonkey
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

interesting, i really though Columbiana would be the least of those. on another topic though, there is no way for them to guess just how hard the storm is going to hit the #s of saturday and sunday.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Buscemi »

The Help probably won't be affected since much of its audience is in the mid-South (the only markets that need to be worried about are Atlanta and Charlotte). It isn't a New York or Boston movie. Colombiana and Don't Be Afraid of the Dark have similar Hispanic appeal (such as Miami, New York and Los Angeles in the West) which means they will be affected in the East. The West should stay the same and be their highest grossing markets.
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W
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by W »

Update:
1. The Help $13.5
2. Columbiana $11
3. Don't be Afraid $9
4. Apes $8.5
5. Our Idiot Brother $6

Looks like an 8-way tie in the regular BO league...
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates (BOM):

The Help, $4.4M
Colombiana, $3.7M
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, $3.6M
Rise of the Planet of the Apes, $2.6M
Our Idiot Brother, $2.4M
Spy Kids 4, $1.6M
The Smurfs, $1.2M
Crazy Stupid LOve, $1M
Fright Night, $971K
Conan the Barbarian, $930K
30 Minutes or Less, $830K
Final Destination 5, $810K
Harry Potter, $680K
Captain America, $615K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - The Help, $14.3M
4 points - Colombiana, $10.3M
3 points - Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, $8.7M
2 points - Rise of the Planet of the Apes, $8.6M
1 point - Our Idiot Brother, $6.6M
Spy Kids 4, $5.7M
The Smurfs, $4.8M
Conan the Barbarian, $3.1M
Fright Night, $3.0M
Crazy Stupid Love, $2.9M

Yucky yuck yuck. What a miserable weekend. And it'll probably be even worse next weekend.


PTA:
5 points - Higher Ground
4 points - Circumstance
3 points - The Help
2 points - Colombiana
1 point - The Guard

(For August leagues, replace The Guard with Don't Be Afraid of the Dark... for now).

No word yet on Buzzkill or Brighton Rock.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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W
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by W »

There's no word period on Mysteries of Lisbon either. But I think it's playing around Boston only and that would really hurt it's take considering the hurricane.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Geezer »

I'll take that from Our Idiot Brother. Should finish with at least 20 million, and I'll take that for my 5 bucks.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

I was hoping for much better, more in the $10m range giving it something like a total BO of $30m. a 4 x multiple just isn't that great.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Geezer »

In the August-October season, it is.
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silversurfer19
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

To each their own then. I expect at least a 6x multiple for this season, and hope that most my movies will achieve that. Our Idiot Brother has been a mis-step in that regard, at least for me.

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Geezer
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by Geezer »

Good luck with that, Surfer. Just remember who hasn't won a league ;)
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silversurfer19
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Yeah, yeah. I expect to see my name in Shryke's update next week plenty though, so maybe my luck is changing. And maybe you should begin taking tips from me [wink]...

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