SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

With The Rise of the Planet of the Apes’ very impressive $54 million opening weekend, the summer blockbuster season appears to have now come to an end. Perhaps that’s a little pessimistic, but truly, I don’t see anything coming out between now and Real Steel that will even catch a glimpse of $100 million. So now, while we run out the summer clock in August, it’s worth noting that the latest Harry Potter and Transformers films are now in a near dead heat for the highest-grossing film of 2011 distinction. Both films are sure to gross over $350 million, and it seems likely that, for the first time, Harry will win the U.S. box office battle against the giant robots. It’s about time.

Now that the Saw films have finally wrapped up, the mantle of “horror-series-that-just-won’t-die” goes to the Final Destination series. What began in 2000 with a bunch of youngsters, having just survived a horrible plane crash, getting picked off one by one for “cheating death’s plans”, has since turned into a full-blown franchise. The original Final Destination grossed a respectable $53 million, and every sequel that’s followed has featured a different kind of disaster, with similar predictable aftereffects. Here’s how it breaks down:

Final Destination (2000) – plane crash, $53 million
Final Destination 2 (2003) – freeway disaster, $47 million
Final Destinaion 3 (2006) – roller-coaster disaster, $54 million
The Final Destination (2009) – racetrack disaster, $66 million

But was The Final Destination the FINAL “Destination”? Hell no. Right on cue, here comes Final Destination 5, which lines up a whole other slew of (mostly) young, good-looking actors who will meet their makers in exceedingly elaborate, unbelievable ways after narrowly avoiding death on a collapsing suspension bridge. The film stars Nicholas D’Agosto (Fired Up), Emma Bell (Frozen), David Koechner (also coming up in Piranha 3DD) and Tony Todd (aka Candyman).

If the period from late April/early May through early August is called “the summer blockbuster season”, and the period from November through December is called “the winter blockbuster season”, the period in between might as well be called “horror season”, because there are a total of seven, count ‘em, SEVEN horror films scheduled to come out between now and Halloween weekend: Final Destination Five, Fright Night, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, Shark Night 3D, Dream House, The Thing, and Paranormal Activity 3. You could even throw in a few other films that fall in the dramatic thriller category, such as Apollo 18 and Straw Dogs, or even a film like Contagion, a drama with horrific connotations.

Point is, there’s a lot coming in the next coming in the next twelve weeks to really stimulate the fear centers of your brain. And coming off the Destination series’ biggest box office output thus far, how much can we reasonably expect from #5? In my opinion, no. I think the last film, which was ostensibly billed as the LAST one of the series, generated as much interest as the series will ever get, and Destination 5, as well as however many more sequels the studio decides to make, will begin a downward spiral starting now.

Horror films have a tendency to open fairly well and then tail off radically. (This happens even when there ISN’T another horror film opening the very next week.) I think FD5 will manage $22 million in its first three days, which probably won’t be enough to beat Rise of the Planet of the Apes in its second week. In all, I predict only five Top 5 points, perhaps a few PTA, and $45 million. The User Rating, which started at 6.8 and has been dropping nearly a half-point per film, will probably be in the 4.5 range. Honestly, for $13 in the August Ultimate leagues ($14 in Box Office), I have to believe you can do better (though probably not this week).

Also at $13 and $14, respectively, is 30 Minutes or Less, an action comedy from Sony/Columbia Pictures and director Ruben Fleisher (Zombieland). It stars Jesse Eisenberg (hot off The Social Network) as Nick, a small-town pizza delivery guy with dreams of… well, nothing, really. However, his uneventful life takes an unexpected turn one lazy night.

You see, there’s a guy named Dwayne (Danny McBride), who along with his equally inept partner-in-crime (Nick Swardson), who have hired an assassin (Michael Pena) to murder Dwayne’s father (Fred Ward) for the insurance money. But they don’t have the money to pay the hitman, you see, so they kidnap Nick on a pizza run, strap a bomb to his chest, and order him to rob a bank for them or… kaboom. Having nowhere else to turn, Nick ropes in his best friend Chet (Aziz Ansari) to help him out of this sticky situation. Hijinks ensue.

If 30 Minutes or Less is half as funny as Zombieland is, I’ll enjoy watching it. Unfortunately, with only a 2,600-theater release platform, I have to believe that financial success is something that the film will struggle to find. With four wide-release films this week, four more next week, and three the week after that… well, you do the math. It may be worth the $10 in your wallet, but it will not be worth the $13/$14 in your gaming budget. I predict only a $15 million opening, $43 million overall, three Top 5 points and a Rating around 7.0. It’s not enough.

The Help is up next, and it is scheduled to be in 2,500 theaters starting on Wednesday. Based on the bestselling novel of the same name by author Kathryn Stockett, The Help marks the first significant directorial project of Tate Taylor, who has appeared as an actor in small roles in films such as I Spy and Winter’s Bone.

Taking place in racially-charged Mississippi of the early 1960’s, The Help centers on three women: Aibileen (Viola Davis), a middle-aged black woman who has spent her life raising white children; Minny (Octavia Spencer), a black maid whose outspoken ways have gotten her fired more than once; and Eugenia “Skeeter” Phelan (Emma Stone), a young white woman who just graduated from the University of Mississippi and returned home to find that the beloved maid who raised her has vanished. Skeeter decides to write a controversial book from the perspective of the working black women who are charged with all the menial tasks assigned to them by white families – including raising their kids – and not even being allowed to use their toilets. The additional supporting cast is quite impressive: Bryce Dallas Howard, Allison Janney, Jessica Chastain, Sissy Spacek and Cicely Tyson.

I like what critic Cole Smithey had to say about The Help: “…it never slips into exploitation or humor for humor’s sake… it followed a path paved with blood, sweat, and tears… it is an appropriately moving film that never bows to sentimentality.” If this is a mere sampling of the praise to come, the Rating should be very good. The problem is, the Rating is not the only consideration. The Help has not been that well-advertised, and its Wednesday release may help strip it of PTA consideration. For only $10 (in both leagues), I think that this film will not give you the “help” you need. I envision only $11 million on its first weekend, $28 million overall, and one Top 5 points. Say it with me: it’s not enough.

Musicals on the big screen are nothing new. Musical-based programs on network TV are a slightly rarer occurrence, but since 2009, the FOX program Glee has developed quite a following. Taking place at a Mid-western high school, the show features many of the cast members bursting into song at any given moment, ranging anywhere from brief solos to full-scale choreographed productions.

It was only a matter of time before the cast and crew hit the road for a nationwide tour, and that happened in the early part of 2011. And it was a natural progression that a camera crew follow them, document their exploits and escapades on film, slap it together and release it into theaters… in 3D. Yes, Glee: The 3D Concert Movie is set to bow in about 1,800 theaters starting this Friday.

I have not seen much advertising for this film, which surprises the hell out of me, when you consider that this film is SUPPOSED to only be in theaters for two weeks, and that’s it. This doesn’t mean that there is no advertising, just that I haven’t seen it. (I don’t watch FOX much during the summer, or whatever channels are the key demographic for this film, so take that as read.) Of course, also remember that Miley Cyrus’s Hannah Montana concert movie was supposed to have a “brief” theater run as well, but when the studio realized that pulling their cash cow out of theaters prematurely would cost them a lot of green, they reneged, and it went on to make $65 million.

Will the powers that be behind Glee: The 3D Concert Movie stick to their guns? Who knows… whatever the case, I would NOT recommend this film for your rosters (big surprise). It is not showing in enough theaters to bring you Top 5 points, it won’t (ostensibly) be in theaters long enough to bring you a lot of money, and it won’t debut high enough to get any Top 5 points (if any). I don’t expect the Rating to be as horrible as Miley’s movie, but it certainly won’t be good either. Pass.

The only limited-release film this week is Littlerock, and if you haven’t heard anything about this film, you weren’t alone. However, it won a Gotham award for “Best Film Not Playing at a Theater Near You”, as well as an Independent Spirit award for director Mike Ott. It is a story about America, seen through the eyes of two Japanese tourists, Atsuko, and Rintaro, as they make their way through a sleepy exurb of Los Angeles. Needless to say, the people and geography of this part of America was not at all like it was describe to them back home.

Normally, I wouldn’t recommend a film debuting in only one theater, but after The Future took top PTA honors a couple of weeks ago with the same miniscule count, maybe Littlerock could follow suit. The competition doesn’t seem to be that strong this week, and if it means anything, the critics have loved it so far (7/8 positive on RT). Its Rating (currently at 7.1 with 135 votes) should also remain at a satisfactory leve. The best news of all… it’s only $2, and believe me, for such a paltry sum, you’re not going to find many titles with good prospects. I would definitely consider this film, if only to leave more budget open for bigger fish.


My predictions for the weekend of August 12-14, 2011:

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $28 million
2. Final Destination 5 - $21 million
3. 30 Minutes or Less - $15 million
4. The Smurfs - $13 million
5. The Help - $11 million ($16 million 5-day)
6. Glee The 3D Concert Movie - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week… looks a lot like this week, with four wide-release films and one limited-release film. They are: Conan the Barbarian, a remake of the 80’s film; Fright Night, ANOTHER remake of an 80’s film; Spy Kids: All the Time in the World, the latest in the Robert Rodriguez kids’ franchise; One Day, a romantic drama starring Anne Hathaway and Jim Sturgess; and Amigo, a period drama starring Chris Cooper.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Roger Federer (tennis great) (30 on 8/8)
The Edge (U2 guitarist) (50 on 8/8)
Esther Williams (swimming legend/actress) (90 on 8/8)
Susan Olsen (Cindy from The Brady Bunch) (50 on 8/14)

Later!





Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Buscemi »

You forgot to mention that The Help runs two and a half hours. For a summer movie that doesn't have explosions, that is not good for its box office chances. And the two positive reviews that I've seen come from not very reliable critics (besides Smithey, who has an inflated ego and infamously trashed Toy Story 3, the other one came from the Broadcast Film Critics Association, who also gave a highly recommended rating to the critically panned Cowboys and Aliens while giving much better films weaker reviews). The majority of critical reviews will probably see it as overlong and blatant Oscar bait and with a miscast Emma Stone.

As for the other films, 30 Minutes or Less runs just 83 minutes and will get more showings each day than The Help. Also, Eisenberg and Anzari are everywhere right now. Unlike last week's The Change-Up, they aren't suffering from overexposure or in a career decline. The movie should do fine. Final Destination 5 will have a decent opening before a quick drop but will make enough to allow filming for the already-announced Final Destination 6 and 7. Glee 3-D is a non-starter and most of the Gleeks already saw the concert live. Also, adult-aimed concert films almost never make money (the last one that was probably a hit was Eddie Murphy Raw).

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes $28 million
2. 30 Minutes or Less $21 million
3. Final Destination 5 $20 million
4. The Help $12 million ($16 million four-day)
5. The Smurfs $12 million
6. Cowboys and Aliens $7.5 million
7. Glee 3-D $7 million
8. Crazy Stupid Love $7 million
9. Captain America $6.5 million
10. Harry Potter $6.5 million
11. The Change-Up $6 million
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by numbersix »

I'm not buying 30 Mins. At first I thought it could be the next Pineapple Express but Eisenberg and Anzari and not known enough.
I think The Help will be the only film to appeal to an older female audience who so far have been unrepresented in the cinema. I think it will have legs
Glee has a 7.9 rating on IMDB, separating it from the likes of Bieber, Montana, etc.

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes $26 million
2. Final Destination 5 $22 million
3. 30 Minutes or Less $18 million
4. The Help $15 million ($18 million four-day)
5. Glee 3-D $12 million

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Buscemi »

But Pineapple Express had James Franco and Danny McBride before anyone really knew them (Franco was only known as a Spider-Man villain, McBride had only been in a couple box office flops before then). Eisenberg is coming off of an Academy Award nominated role. Of course, Eisenberg could be the film's Seth Rogen while Ansari is its James Franco.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by numbersix »

True about Eisenberg, though he's still not high profile enough compared to Rogen (who was everywhere by then), and it's certainly not the same audience as The Social Network. Franco at least had SOME profile, unlike Ansari. It's also a loaded weekend with final Destination aiming for the same audience, not to mention good WOM for Rise of the Apes. I did think highly of 30 Mins initially, now I'm not so sure.

Also I don't trust you (or myself!) any more Boosch after Larry Crowne ;)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Buscemi »

That makes W and Monkey the only people we can trust. ;)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by W »

Don't trust me until November. I have no clue what to make of these three months save Apes and maybe one more I'm high on.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Geezer »

That's why its a perfect season to have the Playoff for the half year Box Office crown, W ;)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by numbersix »

Also, it's a shame the documentary Senna isn't in the game. That would have been a PTA champ.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Buscemi »

100% on Rotten Tomatoes and numerous awards (including one at Sundance) is always a good sign.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, it got amazing reviews over here as well as great word of mouth. And Chien's a big fan too.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by transformers2 »

This weekend is confusing to predict. 30 Minutes Or Less and Final Destination 5 could both do well, but there are reasons they could both fail. 30 Minutes or Less's concept might be hard to swallow for some people which could keep an audience away. Final Destination 5 could fare like the later Saw films because it's the same thing as the rest of them. We'll have to wait and see, but in my opinion this one of the riskiest weekends of the year so far.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

i think final destination will do ok, the last one was well received by the fans. although everyone thought it was the last one, so some might be put off. then again i haven't seen any of them since the first one, so i don't really know much about them or their fans.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by Buscemi »

And Senna is no longer at 100%, thanks to that hack Marshall Fine giving it a negative review. Him and Cole Smithey are basically the white versions of Armond White.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/12/11

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi wrote:Him and Cole Smithey are basically the white versions of Armond White.
In that they have valid points but are labelled trolls because they don't agree with the consensus?

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