SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/5/11

[Brockster]

I dropped Change Up from most of my slates...can't believe tracking is so low (MTC has it at 12M). Too big of a gamble at this point. My gut tells me it will do ok, and I like Shryke's estimate, but damn, just too risky.

[W]

HSX numbers (OW/4 weeks):
Change up 17/46
Apes 48.5/132.5

I would be VERY happy with that Apes total as it'd vault me back into first place in the Full Year. I'm definitely not holding my breath, though.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

erm... What was The Hangover 2, Bridesmaids and (likely to be blockbuster) Bad Teacher?

Yeah totally forgot about the May ones.

But I doubt Bad Teacher hits 100M, probably will top out at $99 or $98.

[Buscemi]

Rotten Tomatoes ratings now:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes 84% (31/37)
The Change-Up 22% (6/27, with 17 of its last 18 reviews being rotten)

[transformers2]

Most of The Change-Up's negative reviews says it's average, that's the number one thing I rate about Rotten Tomatoes. They don't specify the difference between negative and mediocre reviews or decent and amazing reviews. (This doesn't apply specifically to The Change-Up, it applies to a lot of movies.)

[Buscemi]

Well, average is still not good.

And most of the top critics hated it (Roger Ebert called it insulting to audiences).

[numbersix]

I agree, Tranny, RT's score provides a deeply inaccurate reading of how critics regard a movie. I much prefer Metacritic's system. The Change Up is currently 44% in Metacritic, though, which is usually a very poor score

[Buscemi]

Another blow for The Change-Up: Jason Bateman hates the film. According to an interview with Jon Stewart, he called the film garbage. Meanwhile, Ryan Reynolds is trying to claim it's so bad it's good (which he probably claims on all his comedies).

http://marquee.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/04 ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 3,648
The Change-Up - 2,913
Magic Trip - 4
Bellflower - 2
Mysteries of Lisbon - Limited (it says 2 on the film's website)


Next week's estimates:

Final Destination 5 - 3,100+
30 Minutes or Less - 2,600
The Help (Wed) - 2,500
Glee The 3D Concert Movie - 1,800
Littlerock - 1

[W]

Apes - $38 M
Change up - $13-14 M

[Buscemi]

It's now $48.5 million for Rise of the Planet of the Apes and $12.8 million on The Change-Up (yep, it's Old Dogs all over again).

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes, $19.75M
The Smurfs, $5.95M
Cowboys & Aliens, $4.749M
The Change-Up, $4.748M
Captain America, $3.75M
Crazy Stupid Love, $3.725M
Harry Potter, $3.385M
Friends With Benefits, $1.475M
Horrible Bosses, $1.345M
Transformers, $837K

As of Friday, Horrible Bosses has now passed the $100M mark. Harry Potter is now only $8M behind Transformers for top movie of the year. It will be close!

[silversurfer19]

So glad I threw Apes on pretty much every slate I had, all the positive word of mouth should ensure a really good take.

[Shrykespeare]

So glad I took Change-Up off of ALL my slates. And it seems pretty clear that RotPotA will outgross everything else in this three-month period (Real Steel has an outside chance, but not before October ends.)

[undeadmonkey]

i agree with both of you. i put Apes on everything that i could. except for one slate which i missed, i think i might have just not pressed the ok button to save it