SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/5/11

[Shrykespeare]

A TIE?!? In all the years of tracking box office totals, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a closer race for the #1 spot than has occurred over this past weekend. Box Office Mojo’s best estimates have Cowboys & Aliens in a dead heat with The Smurfs as of Sunday afternoon, which means we will have to wait until Monday before a champion is crowned. If anything, this proves that kids’ movies tend to be a lot more critic-proof than action films, given that C&A was supposed to open a bit higher and The Smurfs a bit lower. Kudos also to those players who opted for The Future, which nabbed the PTA crown this weekend, just ahead of The Guard and The Devil’s Double.

For those of you participating in the Super Leagues, congratulations, you have reached the halfway point. Five rounds are now in the books, and you can rest assured that I will be announcing the winners of the Half-Year leagues in my next column (or sooner, hopefully). But for those of you still alive in the Full-Year Leagues, well done. It only gets tougher from here.

Five films will be opening the week, to officially kick off the August-October leagues. Now, historically, the first week of August is usually home to what ends up being the final blockbuster of the summer. Case in point, the films that have opened on this particular weekend over the last five years have all made $100 million, and they are: The Other Guys (2010, $119M), G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra (2009, $150M), The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008, $102M), The Bourne Ultimatum (2007, $227M) and Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (2006, $148.2M).

Bearing that in mind, I think it’s safe to say that Rise of the Planet of the Apes has an above-average chance of hitting that nine-digit plateau. Those wondering if this is a prequel of sorts to the ill-conceived Tim Burton 2001 film Planet of the Apes, which grossed $180 million despite lots of negative word-of-mouth. Rather, it is a reboot of the franchise, which started all the way back in 1968, which had none other than Charlton “Damn Dirty Ape” Heston at the forefront.

Director Rupert Wyatt (The Escapist) and Fox Studios will be bringing this reboot to 3,500 theaters this Friday. It stars James Franco (127 Hours) as Will Rodman, a San Francisco scientist who is working on a cure of Alzheimer’s by performing tests on apes, whose brains most closely resemble humans. His first test subject is Caesar, a chimpanzee captured as a baby in Africa, and before long, Will’s injections turn the once-normal chimp into the most intelligent simian alive. And though Will treats Caesar like a colleague more than a subject, many of his peers to not, and so the seed is sown for some REAL trouble. Specifically, Caesar decides not only to break his own shackles, but those of his kin, using Will’s “cure” to augment his fellow apes’ higher brain functions as well. Could it mean curtains for humankind? Freida Pinto, Andy Serkis, John Lithgow, Tom Felton and Brian Cox co-star.

Given how many film enthusiasts already know how this story ends, it seems that the ending, whatever it is, will not be a happy one. Will that have any effect on Rise’s bottom line? Well, it’s been tremendously advertised, and it seems clear that if there is one big draw left to be had this summer, this is it. Rise will run you only $16 in the August Ultimate leagues and $19 in Box Office. For that, and given how weak next week’s starters look, there is a good chance that Rise could repeat as box office champion in its first two weeks, on its way to twelve Top 5, three PTA, a decent Rating and $110 million. I think this is a very good pick for your slates, particularly when you consider that in the August leagues, the July film no longer matter.

Up next is The Change-Up, and no, it’s not a movie about baseball (that’s coming next month, in the form of Moneyball), but rather, an adult comedy revisiting a classic comedy trope: body-switching. This particular plot device, last seen in 2003’s Freaky Friday, will be showcased in roughly 2,700 theaters this Friday. However, unlike Freaky Friday, which was under the Disney umbrella, The Change-Up is most assuredly for mature audiences only, having been given an R Rating.

Universal Pictures and director David Dobkin (Wedding Crashers, Fred Claus) are betting heavily on The Change-Up being the last successful mainstream comedy of the summer, a summer which has already seen huge revenues for films like Bridesmaids ($165 million), Bad Teacher ($97 million) and Horrible Bosses ($96 million), and I suppose you could throw The Hangover Part II in there as well ($252 million). However you may look at what’s coming up between now and November, there is not much that looks like it has the potential to crack $100 million, maybe even $80 million.

The Change-Up centers on two men, bachelor Mitch (Ryan Reynolds) and married man Dave (Jason Bateman). Once best friends, the duo become reacquainted and ponder on how different their lives have become, with Dave becoming a harried, overworked lawyer with three small kids and Mitch leading a shallow existence full of casual, empty sex. Both men believe the other has the better life, and before you can say “vice versa”, they get their wish. The next morning, they find themselves inhabiting each other’s bodies, and proceed to stumble through the lives they so blithely wished for. Hilarity ensues. Leslie Mann, Olivia Wilde and Alan Arkin co-star.

Romantic comedies tend to be rather predictable, and many adult comedies tend to be even more so. Who wants to be that both Mitch and Dave, after walking a mile in his compatriot’s shoes, realizes what it is they’re missing, and embrace it fully at the end of the movie after they get presto-change-o’ed back?

Well, Universal is advertising the hell out of The Change-Up, and while I think bad reviews will ultimately keep it from reaching blockbuster status, it should do reasonably well. I predict a $24 million opening, on its way to six Top 5 points, two Top 5, a middling Rating and $80 million. For its asking price of $14 (in both leagues), this might be worth taking. It’s probably got fewer question marks attached then most of September’s films.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

Mysteries of Lisbon ($3 Ult) – This Portuguese film is coming to American shores courtesy of Music Box Films, and will be debuting in only two locations in New York this weekend, according to the film’s website, and was also showcased at the Toronto Film Festival. Based on the novel of the same name by Camilo Castelo Branco, Mysteries of Lisbon takes place in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon in the nineteenth century.

The story centers on Joao, the bastard child of an ill-fated romance between two aristocrats who were forbidden to marry. As he strives to discover the truth about his parentage, he becomes part of “an engrossing tale that follows a multitude of characters whose fates conjoin, separate and then rejoin again over three decades in Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy.” The film will be shown primarily in the Portuguese language with English subtitles.

Well, foreign period pieces are often PTA goldmines, and Mysteries of Lisbon certainly seems to fit that bill. For only $3, I would consider taking it just for the Rating (currently at 8.0 with nearly 400 votes). Given that it is leading off a month, it is guaranteed at least one PTA point, but, given its competition, I think at least four is more than likely.

Bellflower ($3 Ult) – This Sundance entrant is… a strange one, to be sure. It was written, directed by and stars Evan Glodell, who plays the character of Woodrow, who, along with his friend Aiden (Tyler Dawson), build flamethrowers and other weapons, in the hopes that “a global apocalypse will occur and make way for their imaginary gang, called ‘Mother Medusa’, which is also the name of their modified, flamethrowing car.” If you can make sense of a plot by watching the trailer, more power to you.

All ten critics that have reviewed Bellflower have loved it, comparing it to the works of John Hughes, Mad Max and Fight Club, among others. Set to bow in two theaters this Friday, it currently boasts an RT score of 100%. Before you get too excited, however, know that its IMDb Rating isn’t quite as spectacular (6.1 with 169 votes). This may be one of those “out-there” films that jumps up and grabs a bunch of PTA, but I would be a little scared to pick it. And watch it. Others may feel differently, though.

Magic Trip ($3 Ult) – Alison Ellwood and Alex Gibney are the masterminds behind this documentary about author Ken Kesey (who penned One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest) and the cross-country trip that he and a band of friends and acquaintances – known collectively as the Merry Pranksters) took in 1964 on a beat-up bus christened “Furthur”. Much of the film shows documented footage of the actual trip that was shot on a 16mm camera.

This is a tough weekend to figure out, PTA-points-wise. Magic Trip could pull in the same type of audience that made Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune such a great pick earlier this year. It’s being shown in a good number of locations (four), and most of the early reviews have been good, and there’s even talk of an Oscar nom next year. Because of that, Magic Trip may be worth your $3.

Well, with five films coming out on Friday, each one is assured of at least one PTA point. What order they come in, that’s beyond my ability to discern at the moment. It’s wide open, as far as I’m concerned.


My predictions for the weekend of August 5-7, 2011:

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $35 million
2. The Change-Up - $24 million
3. The Smurfs 3D - $22 million
4. Cowboys & Aliens - $18 million
5. Captain America: The First Avenger – $13 million
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $13 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five more films take center stage as we go deeper into the throes of August, including: 30 Minutes or Less, a crime comedy starring Jesse Eisenberg; The Help, a feel-good Disney film starring Emma Stone; Final Destination 5, the latest installment of the horror franchise; Glee: The 3D Concert Movie, a concert documentary following the stars of the hit TV show on their summer tour; and finally, limited-release feature Littlerock.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Martha Stewart (business magnate) (70 on 8/3)
Barack Obama (The Prez) (50 on 8/4)
Catherine Hicks (7th Heaven) (60 on 8/6)

Later!

[numbersix]

No chance Mysteries of Lisbon will do well on the PTA front. It's over 4 hours long!

Bellflower is my pick of the week, although a doc about Kesey should do well

[Buscemi]

Magic Trip is reportedly not very good and Alex Gibney has been getting known for rushing movies and releasing average ones now rather than making good ones.

[Shrykespeare]

FOUR HOURS?!?! Shit, I didn't know that... I may have to reconsider picking it...

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Pretty spot on with next weekends predictions, although I'm hoping The Change-Up gets strong WOM and has a good multiplier. It would perfect if it overshadowed 30 Minutes Or Less and became the go-to comedy for August.

[Buscemi]

The reviews and word-of-mouth will be terrible on The Change-Up. It's this year's Old Dogs.

[Geezer]

But... 30 Minutes or Less looks hilarious, while The Change-Up looks like a steaming pile of shit. They are STILL making body switch movies? REALLY??

[Buscemi]

And Aziz Ansari is one of the funniest people in Hollywood right now.

[undeadmonkey]

hmmm, i think they both look funny. and that question isn't really fair, you could say the same thing about 30 minutes or less or substitute any premise really... They are STILL making bank robbing movies?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wouldn't say 30 Minutes looks hilarious, but it looks way better than The Change-Up. I'm assuming neither will outgross Horrible Bosses, which rightfully and unexpectedly will be (most likely) the only R-rated comedy of the summer to pass $100M.

[silversurfer19]

erm... What was The Hangover 2, Bridesmaids and (likely to be blockbuster) Bad Teacher?

[Shrykespeare]

I don't think Bad Teacher will QUITE make it. It's got about $3.5M to go and only earned a few hundred K this past weekend. Still, that's pretty darn good considering it was only supposed to make half that.

Horrible Bosses will make it easily though.

[Buscemi]

Early reviews:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes 83% (5/6)
The Change-Up -- (1/1, from a critic who seems to give everything a good review...except Inception and Let Me In)

[englishozzy]

I cant see The Change Up doing well, Ryan Reynolds hasn't exactly won over anybody with his stint as The Green Lantern. 30 Minutes on the other hand looks a lot more interesting and like Buscemi said Aziz is hot property right now as is Eisenberg.

[numbersix]

Tracking has been high on Rise of the Apes, occasionally putting it in the 50's. But I think the lack of notable stars (most only know Franco from Spiderman and for botching this year's Oscars) will have an effect.
I think you're over-estimating The Change-Up. The silly (kiddie) premise contrasts with the type of humour, and there's just too many R-Rated comedies floating around at the moment.

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $39 million
2. The Smurfs 3D - $20 million
3. Cowboys & Aliens - $17 million
4. The Change-Up - $16 million
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $13 million