SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/22/11

[Shrykespeare]

Nice to know that in a summer rife with uncertainty, there are still things you can count on. After the bitter disappointments thrust upon us by the latest projects from DreamWorks and Pixar, both Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 not only performed up to expectations, but surpassed them. The third Transformers film zoomed past the $300 million mark (the first to do so since Twilight: Eclipse), while the eighth and final chapter in the saga of the boy wizard shattered opening-day records on its way to a whopping $168 million in its first weekend. Which of the two films will end up at #1 for the year when all is said and done? Only time will tell.

The summer has had the highest superhero-per-capita number of any summer ever. I am almost thankful to say that this Friday will see the release of the fourth – and FINAL – superhero flick of the year. Following on the heels of Thor ($179 million), X-Men: First Class ($143 million) and Green Lantern ($112 million) comes Captain America: The First Avenger, the latest chapter in Marvel’s Avengers series. It is directed by Joe Johnston (Jumanji, Jurassic Park III), and will be debuting in 3,500 theaters.

One could call the total output of Thor disappointing, especially when you compare it to the two Iron Man films, both of which grossed over $300 million. And while Captain America may not prove as mighty at the box office as Iron Man did, I think it has a good chance to succeed. Because whereas Thor, while noble and god-like, was not of our Earthly realm, the character of Captain America is as human – and as American – a hero as has ever been created.

Taking place in 1942, a time when WWII was in full swing, a young, scrawny man named Steve Rogers (Chris Evans, playing a superhero for the fourth time) wants nothing more than to serve his country by enlisting, but he is deemed “physically unfit” to do so. However, he is recruited by Col. Phillips (Tommy Lee Jones), to join a secret government project called “Rebirth”, whose goal it is to develop a serum that turns normal (or sub-normal) men into super-soldiers. It is interesting to note that Tony Stark’s father Howard (Dominic Cooper) was also an integral part of the project.

Before you know it, Steve is a buff, barrel-chested hero, with athletic abilities far beyond that of any Olympian. But there can be no superhero film without a supervillian to challenge him, and in the case of Captain America, that would be the Red Skull (the inimitable Hugo Weaving), Hitler’s head of advanced weaponry who has plans of his own for global domination. Stanley Tucci, Sebastian Stan, Neal McDonough, Derek Luke and Hayley Atwell co-star.

I was a big fan of the Captain America comic book as a youth, and so I have an inkling as to how a film that takes place seventy years ago will tie in with an Avengers series that takes place in the modern day. (And no, I’m not telling you how.) In case you were wondering, the Avengers movie will be next summer’s leadoff hitter, coming out on May 4, 2012. (Side note: I can see three other superhero films coming next year: Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (2/17), The Amazing Spider-Man (7/4) and The Dark Knight Rises (7/20)… gee, I wonder which one will do the best…)

A month ago, I would have predicted the returns for Captain America to be very good but not spectacular. Now, I’m not so sure. I have seen tons of advertising for the film, and the buzz has been growing at an exponential rate. I have not read any early reviews of the film, but I would be surprised if they weren’t good.

Of course, after Harry Potter, there’s nowhere to go but down, and this is the part of the summer where you will start to see the huge numbers of July slowly taper off, as the quality of entertainment apparent in the next month starts to dwindle by a rate of about 10-15% per week. I do not expect Captain America to top Harry Potter’s second week, but it should still do very very well. I will predict an OW of $60 million, on its way to nine Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating of 7.5 and $165 million overall. For $21 in the July Ultimate leagues ($23 in Box Office), this looks like a very good pick indeed.

Also being given a wide release this week is Friends With Benefits, a romantic comedy from Sony Screen Gems and director Will Gluck (who helmed last year’s surprise hit Easy A). Set to bow in about 2,700 locations this Friday, the film stars Justin Timberlake (who was just in Bad Teacher) and Mila Kunis (Black Swan) as Dylan and Jamie, two friends who decide, after just getting out of bad relationships, to make their own friendship about sex without the burden of emotional attachments. Of course, if you saw No Strings Attached... what was it, six months ago?... you’d know that that never works, especially in a romantic comedy.

It’s worth noting that No Strings Attached earned $70 million in a January release. Can Friends With Benefits do as well? Well, though I find myself wishing that it will happen: the most recent trailer, posted below, is actually very funny, showing the kind of humor that made Easy A so great, along with an impressive supporting cast that includes Woody Harrelson (whose just about to turn 50, see below), Richard Jenkins, Jenna Elfman, Andy Samberg, and, yes, Patricia Clarkson and Emma Stone from Easy A.

However, I doubt that it will find enough leg room to really stretch itself out, especially when you consider that there are more adult comedies coming up (Crazy Stupid Love and The Change-Up are due out in the next two weeks). Even with that, there’s a lot going on right now in theaters: not only are there huge movies dominating box offices, but comedies like Bad Teacher, Zookeeper and Horrible Bosses are still drawing audiences, and that’s a hurdle that No Strings Attached didn’t have.

Friends with Benefits will run you only $11 in both leagues. For that, however, I think you can only expect three Top 5 points, a so-so Rating, an OW of $18 million and $50 million overall. Like I said, there’s just too much going on. I think that this film’s “benefits” won’t be enough to warrant inclusion on your slates.

And now, a little bit about this weeks’ three limited-release films:

Sarah’s Key ($4 Ult) – This drama, scheduled to debut in five locations this Friday, stars well-known English actress Kristin Scott Thomas as Julia, a journalist’s wife who investigates the harrowing story of a family who previously inhabited the house that she now resides in. Specifically, the story of Sarah (Melusine Mayance), who, at the age of ten, was taken away as part of the Vel’ d’Hiv Roundup of 1942. To enlighten you, this was a Nazi decree that all French jews be rounded up and separated, which the French government and police forces proceeded to do. Sarah, you see, had a little brother named Michel, who she locked in their closet on the morning of the Roundup to keep him safe, taking the key with her. In investigating this story, Julia uncovers some terrible details about a dark period in France’s history.

Sarah’s Key would, on paper, seem to be a great PTA pick. Five theaters, good reviews (8/10 positive on RT), a solid Rating (7.2 with over 1,000 votes), and a French pedigree are all positive factors. Though it’s definitely not a feel-good movie, it is the kind of film that true cinephiles and historians like to see. I think it’s a winner.

Another Earth ($3 Ult) – This entry at Sundance comes to four theaters this Friday courtesy of director Mike Cahill and Fox Searchlight pictures. The central character is Rhoda Williams (Brit Marling), who is driving when she inexplicably sees what appears to be a mirror version of Earth in the night sky… and then plows into a minivan, killing the family aboard. After a few years in prison, Rhoda seeks out the widower of the family (William Mapother), intending to ask for forgiveness. While this is going on, it is determined that the other Earth is indeed genuine, with presumably another version of every one of us on it. An essay contest is held, with the winners being given a seat on a space shuttle to travel to it, and Rhoda considers entering so she can see how the life of her mirror-self turned out.

I guess you could call this sci-fi, in the same vein that you might call The Tree of Life sci-fi. Though I doubt the reception will be nearly as good, Another Earth might still be a decent pick. It has a decent Rating (6.8 with 460 votes), and has a good chance to pick up some PTA. It’s still a gamble, though.

The Myth of the American Sleepover ($2 Ult) – This film was an entry at Cannes and won the Special Jury Prize at the SXSW Film Festival. It is a coming-of-age drama, centering on four young people enjoying the last day of summer, their final night of freedom before the next school year begins. The characters “explore the suburban wonderland they inhabit… chasing first kisses, elusive crushes, popularity and parties… while discovering the quite moments that will later become part of their youth they look back on with nostalgia.” Thank you, RT. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

There are no recognizable names in the cast, and Myth is helmed by a first-time director (David Robert Mitchell). IFC Films has it debuting on only one screen this weekend. I… honestly can’t see this being a great source of PTA. Its Rating is good but not solid yet (7.0/139 votes), and it doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that pulls people in, even if it won film festival awards. Not long ago, Skateland came up empty, and though Myth looks like a better film, I still wouldn’t pick it.

My predictions for the weekend of July 22-29, 2011:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $81 million
2. Captain America – $60 million
3. Friends With Benefits – $18 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $12 million
5. Horrible Bosses – $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the month of July brings the main part of the summer season to a close, with seven new films due out on July 29th: Cowboys & Aliens, a sci-fi/western starring Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford; The Smurfs, a live-action 3D film starring the diminutive 80’s cartoon characters; Crazy, Stupid, Love, a comedy starring Steve Carell and Ryan Gosling; as well as limited-release features The Guard, The Devil’s Double, The Future and Point Blank.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Elizabeth McGovern (Kick-Ass) (50 on 7/18)
John Glenn (first American to orbit the Earth) (90 on 7/18)
Campbell Scott (Royal Pains, coming up next year in The Amazing Spider-Man) (50 on 7/19)
Lisa Lampanelli (foul-mouthed comedienne) (50 on 7/19)
Sandra Oh (Grey’s Anatomy, Sideways) (40 on 7/20)
Robin Williams (Old Dogs, next up in Happy Feet 2 and next year’s The Wedding) (60 on 7/21)
Woody Harrelson (Friends With Benefits, coming up in The Hunger Games) (50 on 7/23)
Summer Glau (Serenity, The Cape) (30 on 7/24)
Lynda Carter (TV’s Wonder Woman in the 70’s) (60 on 7/24)

Later!

[numbersix]

I think Cpn America is being over-estimated. While the advertising has been everywhere it feels like superheroes have reached saturation point, and we're all tired of it.
The same could be said for R-Rated comedies so I'm not sure what to make of FWB, so I'll make a conservative guess.
As for PTA, I think Sarah's Key is the only one worth considering.

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $65 million (it will be very front-loaded)
2. Captain America – $50 million
3. Friends With Benefits – $20 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $11 million
5. Horrible Bosses – $10 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't think Deathly Hallows will be as frontloaded as other HP movies, simply because people know this will be the last time they can see Harry Potter on the big screen.

I am going to go see it at least one more time, probably in imax.

[Buscemi]

We saw how Battle: Los Angeles grossed $80 million due to its blatant patriotism. Captain America should probably due twice that since it appeals to regular people as well (and actually has a story that isn't ripped off from a few scenes in District 9).

[Brockster]

Ok Busc, we get it...you hate Battle: Los Angeles, lol...good lord you bash it on every thread!

[Buscemi]

I know but it's a textbook example of why patriotic movies do well.

[W]

I'd say that Independence Day is 1000x more patriotic than Battle: LA and by most accounts here it's a good film, including being my #8 favorite film of all time and that's pretty much one speech that's grown to be fairly iconic. It may glorify the people of the US Armed Forces (and they for the most part deserve it), but I fail to see America being put on a pedestal in the film.

[silversurfer19]

I don't think I've ever wanted a comic book movie to bomb harder than I want Cap to. If there is any possibility of me claiming my first ever league victory I need Cap to underperform (as well as Horrible Bosses holding well and Crazy Stupid Love opening decently). What I'd give for my first ever victory...

[Chienfantome]

I kind of feel the exact opposite Surfer I want it to perform well !

[englishozzy]

I think it will be more closer at the top, HP had a huge weekend and will probably drop a fair bit.

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II - $76 million
2. Captain America: The First Avenger - $68 million
3. Friends with Benefits - $26 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $12 million
5. Horrible Bosses - $9 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wanted to say Cap would open closer to Green Hornet numbers, but there hasn't been a superhero movie disappoint in its OW yet, so why now? I guess mid-50s to low 60s is about right.

The question is will it drop off the face of the earth like Green Lantern and continue strongly like Thor (or what passes as strongly for comic book movies this year)....

[silversurfer19]

I think that all depends on reviews and word of mouth. So far reviews haven't been particularly kind, and even the ones giving it fresh ratings are not glowing. My guess is though that while it will drop a little, it won't bomb in it's subsequent weeks. Probably 55% drops or something like that.

[Buscemi]

But of course, Battle: Los Angeles had bad reviews also but still did well.

[silversurfer19]

Seriously, is this still being discussed?

Anyway, I mean more in terms of comic book movies. I've noticed a lot depends on word of mouth and critical reaction this year, and so getting bad feedback will hurt it's legs, imo. Plus, it's competition is a little stiffer than Battle LA, which came out when there wasn't much around bar Rango really.

[Shrykespeare]

RT scores so far:

Captain America - 62% (13/21)
Friends With Benefits - 44% (4/9)
Sarah's Key - 84% (16/19)
Another Earth - 69% (11/16)
Myth of an Amer. Sleepover - 77% (10/13)